19:39, 6 November 2023
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. The death toll from the ongoing Israeli attacks in war on Gaza has exceeded 10,000 people, the Palestinian Health Ministry said on Monday.
''The death toll includes 4,104 children and 2,641 women,'' the ministry said.
14:30, 6 November 2023
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. A U.S. Ohio-class submarine, a type of vessel which can be equipped with advanced ballistic or Tomahawk cruise missiles, has arrived in the Mediterranean as the US continues to bolster its defensive posture amid the Israel-Hamas war.
CENTCOM, the U.S. Department of Defense combatant command with authority over US forces in the Middle East and West and Central Asia, posted a photo on Sunday of the submarine on X, formerly Twitter, confirming it had arrived in the region.
The disclosure of the submarine's location is significant as the whereabouts of the vessels are typically kept secret for security regions, according to Business Insider.
The CENTCOM photo appears to show the vessel sailing through the Suez Canal.
Last week, the U.S. military said it would deploy an additional 300 troops to the CENTCOM region. The Pentagon said the forces “are intended to support regional deterrence efforts and further bolster U.S. force protection capabilities," stressing that the forces will not go to Israel.
21:48, 6 November 2023
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. The United Nations on Monday stressed that 88 staffers have been killed in Gaza, marking the highest toll ever for UN fatalities recorded in a single conflict, The Times of Israel reported.
The 88 staff members from the Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA have been reportedly killed since the beginning of the war, October 7.
A joint statement from the heads of all major UN agencies stated that the figure represents "the highest number of United Nations fatalities ever recorded in a single conflict."
20:26, 6 November 2023
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. Hayk Mamijanyan, Head of the "I Have an Honor" faction of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia and the faction deputy Taguhi Tovmasyan, on Monday held a meeting with the Co-Rapporteurs on Armenia of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Monitoring Committee Kimmo Kiljunen and Boriana Åberg.
The deputies drew the attention of the co-rapporteurs to the genocidal actions carried out by the Azerbaijani authorities against Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, they highlighted the need to ensure the status, accommodation, work for the forcibly displaced Armenians from Nagorno- Karabakh.
During the meeting the problems of Armenian prisoners of war and missing persons who are still being held in Baku were touched upon.
At the meeting, the members of the “I Have an Honor” faction also touched upon, as they assured, violations of democratic values in Armenia, cases of using criminal cases as a tool to suppress the opposition, in particular, the arrests of the vice-chairman of the Republican Party of Armenia Armen Ashotyan, Narek Malyan, Tatev Virabyan and about five dozen, by their definition, political prisoners.
21:03, 6 November 2023
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. According to the information provided by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in January-September of the current year, 1 million 839 thousand 4 foreign tourists visited Armenia, compared to 1 million 239 thousand 394 people last year.
'The rise amounted to 48.4%, according to the National Statistical Committee.
The bulk were from Russia (931 thousand 695 people or 50 7% of the total), Georgia (185 thousand 82 people or 10.1%,) and Iran (116 thousand 62 people or 6.3%).
Artsakh residents crammed onto and inside a truck leaving for Armenia (Reuters photo)
Armenia’s authorities announced that the forcibly displaced Artsakh residents will received their pensions and other benefits regardless of their status.
The fate of the assistance allocation was mired in controversy last month when the government decided to grant the displaced Artsakh Armenians “temporary protection” formalizing their status of refugees. By doing so, the government stressed that the Artsakh Armenians are not citizens of Armenia despite the fact that virtually all of them hold Armenian passports. Government officials described their passports as mere “travel documents,” a claim disputed by some legal experts.
The announcement on Monday seemed to be course correction with authorities assuring that the displaced Artsakh residents will receive pensions and other benefits owed to them since their exodus to Armenia.
Previously, the government said that the displaced Artsakh residents will only receive 50,000 drams ($125) each in November and December in addition to the 100,000 drams given to them in October.
Prior to Monday, some senior Armenian officials indicated that Artsakh pensioners, retired military and security personnel, as well as other relevant categories will be eligible for monthly benefits only if they apply for and receive Armenian citizenship.
Deputy Labor Minister Davit Khachatryan told Azatutyun.am that the distribution will occur in December and cover the period from the displaced Artsakh residents’ departure from Artsakh through December.
“We are doing everything to make sure that [the refugees] start getting their pensions along with everybody else at the beginning of December,” Khachatryan said.
Israelis affiliated with a real estate venture storm Jerusalem Patriachate
The investor who sought to lease 25 percent of the Armenian Quarter of Jerusalem has ignored a letter by the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem cancelling the controversial real estate deal and has started demolition, the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem warned Monday.
The Jerusalem Patriarchate announced last week that it was canceling the deal after fallout from the community, as well as a warning from the governments of Jordan and Palestine, who legally have control over the Armenian Quarter.
The Patriarchate said on Monday that the investor did not provide a legal response to the Patriarchate’s letter from last week and instead began demolishing walls and a parking lot adjacent to the property, the Patriarchate Chancellery said in a statement.
Jerusalem religious leaders stand firm on the grounds of the Patriarchate building
“Yesterday they even brought security guards armed with high powered rifles and tactically trained dogs demanding an evacuation of Armenians from the parking lot. As a reaction to this, the Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem, members of the St. James Brotherhood, and members of the Armenian community, gathered in the Armenian Gardens and peacefully expressed their discontent. After a few hours, the two sides agreed to disperse until the Patriarchate receives an answer to their sent cancellation letter,” the Chancellery added.
At around 3 p.m. local time on Sunday afternoon, a group of Israeli extremist settlers entered the Armenian Quarter’s park, known as the Cow’s Pasture, where the Armenian community members had gathered to prevent further illegal demolition of the interior walls, the Save the ArQ Movement reported.
Danny Rothman and George Warwar, representatives of Xana Capital, backed with about 15 armed settlers and attack dogs, demanded the expulsion of Armenians, calling it their land. Warwar threatened the community, exclaiming that he’ll “get them one by one.” The settlers were also active, announcing that the Armenians are all “Goys [foreigners] and when the Messiah comes, [they] will all die.”
The Armenian community refused to back down and stood firmly on the rightfully owned property.
The Save the ArQ Movement community leaders, Hagop Djernazian and Setrag Balian, and the legal team, led by international lawyer Karnig Kerkonian, convened an emergency meeting and a member of the team, Eitan Peleg, arrived on scene to negotiate the stand down.
Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem Archbishop Nourhan Manougian also arrived on the scene and stood side by side with the Armenian community of Jerusalem, along with priests and bishops. The community stood strong, with 200 members in unity to prevent the takeover and to save the Armenian Quarter.
Last week the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem announced that a letter was sent on October 26 to Xana Gardens Ltd. whereby the Patriarchate informed Xana Gardens of the cancellation of the agreement signed in August 2021 regarding the Armenian Gardens in the Old City, Jerusalem.
The Yerevan-based Tatoyan Foundation, established by Armenia’s former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan, has been involved in the issue and together with the U.S.-based Kerkonian-Dajani law firm, attorney Garo Ghazarian and the Center for Law and Justice contacted community leaders and began monitoring the situation to quell any unrest.
In June, a group of attorneys and advisers led by the Kerkonian-Dajani firm headed a fact-finding mission, in which the Tatoyan Foundation and the Center for Law and Justice also participated.
Before that mission, alerts were received from the Armenian community in Jerusalem that a hotel and entertainment facility would be built in the Armenian grounds known as “Cows’ Garden,” and the residents who historically live in the area of the St. James Armenian Monastery would be evicted from the adjacent neighborhoods. Further, they found that the museum of the Armenian neighborhood would also be seriously threatened and the cemetery would be displaced.
Based on the evidence gathered during the fact-funding mission, the legal team prepared a 184-page report that included substantial evidence which formed the basis for the first in a series of legal remedies initiated, and more to be pursued in due course, the Tatoyan foundation reported.
The road to peace here may be quite literal. On Oct. 26, while at a summit in Tbilisi, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced an initiative known as the Crossroads for Peace, which calls for building transport connections to each of Armenia’s neighbors—Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. The inclusion of the latter two is most notable, given that it was less than two months previous that Azerbaijan launched military operations to seize Nagorno-Karabakh with Turkey’s support, thus giving Baku complete territorial control over the long-disputed region.
The South Caucasus is one of the world’s least connected regions, both for geographic and political reasons. Mountainous and on the fringes of larger powers, numerous local and regional conflicts have also stifled trade and connectivity. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have long been closed due to the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, giving Yerevan only limited trade connections to Georgia, and by extension Russia, to the north and Iran to the south. In the meantime, Azerbaijan’s connections to its allies in Turkey and even its own exclave of Nakhchivan have been highly curtailed, with its western-bound exports of energy supplies relying exclusively on transit through Georgia.
Now, the issue of territorial control over Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer functionally in play, with the vast majority of the region’s ethnic Armenian residents seeking refuge in Armenia proper, while the region’s self-declared government announced that it would “cease to exist” as of Jan 1. As challenging as that has been for Armenians from both a humanitarian and political standpoint, it has removed one of the largest obstacles to peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially as Yerevan’s primary security patron—Russia—has made clear it will not be coming to Armenia’s defense on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
This has unlocked the potential for both peace and the long-sought economic connectivity that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been attempting to foster. Previously, those efforts were made separately and often in contradiction with one another’s aims, such as Azerbaijan’s pursuit of the so-called Zangezur corridor to build road, rail, and energy connections to both Nakhchivan and Turkey through southern Armenia without a political understanding with Yerevan. Armenia was opposed to such a route, and while the status of Nagorno-Karabakh was up in the air, this was a point of contention between Baku and Yerevan. This became a politically charged issue on the domestic front in both countries, one that was manipulated by external players such as Russia and Iran.
Now, that calculus appears to have changed. Following Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku appears more interested in following through with building economic connections than seizing more territory. In part, this is a legal and political issue—the same grounds that Baku used to justify its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh (which has been an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan), would be undermined if it aimed to gain further territory in Armenia proper by force. But it is also a practical issue, as economic projects would be more secure with Armenia’s diplomatic cooperation and participation rather than they would be with resistance from Yerevan.
This is what makes the unveiling of Pashinyan’s Crossroads for Peace initiative so important. The initiative both acknowledges the principle of territorial integrity, which would be crucial for any peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, while also proposing specific connectivity projects, such as the construction and restoration of pipelines, road, rail, cables, and electricity lines between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond
Pashinyan emphasized the mutual benefits of such an initiative to countries throughout the region, while the fact that high level figures from Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran were present at the summit, along with Armenian and Georgian counterparts, underscores the groundwork that has been laid on this issue. At the same time, Azerbaijan has dropped the Zangezur corridor proposal in favor of routes through Iran. No less importantly, Pashinyan stated during his speech that a normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be “successfully completed in the coming months.”
Nevertheless, there are many potential hurdles to this initiative and the broader peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan that underpins it. Notably absent from the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum were representatives from Russia. Relations between Yerevan and Moscow have significantly soured over Russia’s refusal to intervene on Armenia’s behalf in Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, Armenian officials have explicitly criticized Russia’s stance in the war, refused to participate in several forums hosted by Russia, and signed agreements on military and security cooperation with France, a NATO member.
This is significant, given that Russia would not be happy with projects in the Caucasus that exclude its participation, particularly in energy, since Azerbaijan has sought to increase its natural gas exports to Europe as the continent diversifies from Russia. And while Moscow has lost a lot of ground in the Caucasus amid its focus on the Ukrainian war effort and Turkey’s rise in the region, the Kremlin has proved to be willing and able to sow chaos and act as a disruptive force in theaters throughout Eurasia and beyond where its interests are not met.
Besides the Russian challenge, other factors could prove disruptive to normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan and connectivity efforts within the broader region. This could include political elements from within Armenia and its diaspora communities in countries such as France and the United States that are opposed to reconciliation with Azerbaijan, as well as any rhetoric from Azerbaijani officials that could perceived as threatening wider aggression. Additionally, there are thorny and politically sensitive issues for both sides, including border delimitation and mine clearance. Other conflicts could also spill into the region, especially given Russia’s prominent role there.
Despite all of these potential hurdles, there is a real chance for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could significantly enhance the connectivity of the region to the benefit of millions of people. This, in turn, could unlock further connections to a Trans-Caspian corridor to Central Asia, which would only be strengthened by the participation and increased investment from key players such as the United States and EU, as detailed in a recently released New Lines Institute report.
All of this will take delicate maneuvering and strategic decision-making by the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan to mitigate the risks and seize the opportunities at a critical time, both in their bilateral relationship and in their relationship with influential actors throughout the region.
Eugene Chausovsky is a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute. Chausovsky previously served as senior Eurasia analyst at the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor for more than 10 years. His work focuses on political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East.
Armenia's relations with its strategic partner Russia are getting worse and worse and its leaders seem to desire a shift in geopolitical orientation towards the West.
But a look at Russia's powerful levers over the country makes that kind of thinking seem delusional.
And Moscow has begun dropping hints of how much economic pain it can inflict on Armenians.
Armenian officials offer assurances that all is fine on the economic front, but economists and businesspeople are increasingly worried about possible consequences of the political tensions.
About 40 percent of Armenia's exports go to Russia, and Yerevan's dependence on Russia for basic goods is overwhelming.
Gazprom Armenia, the local subsidiary of the Russian state gas company, owns all of the country's gas distribution infrastructure. Imports from Russia of grain and petroleum products also enjoy a near monopoly.
Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on migrant laborers sending their wages back home from Russia. In 2022 money transfers from Russia accounted for 3.6 billion dollars out of the total 5.1 billion entering the country.
Warning shot fired
On 24 October the lower house of the Russian legislature, the Duma, postponed debate on a bill that would have recognized Armenian driver's licenses for business and labor purposes. The move was widely seen in Armenia as politically motivated and a hint of the economic sanctions that Moscow could implement in a bid to bring its wayward junior partner to heel.
In fact, Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin all but directly said that the decision was linked to what he called the Armenian government's failure to take steps toward granting official status to the Russian language.
Many Armenian labor migrants find work in Russia in the service industry, including as taxi drivers. They have long sought relief from bureaucratic headaches through the recognition of Armenian driver's licenses. Now that seems less likely than ever.
Economist Suren Parsyan believes the Russian MPs' decision amounts to a "warning shot."
"This is just a gesture for now, one that could be followed by harsher measures if political relations deteriorate," Parsyan told Eurasianet.
Economic dependency grows
The steady worsening of political ties between Armenia and Russia has had an inverse relationship with the two countries' growing economic cooperation over the past year and half or so. (Eurasianet reported on the same trend in April.)
After the U.S. and EU imposed sanctions against Moscow over its war on Ukraine, Armenia became one of several countries through which Western products have been entering Russia.
In 2022 the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia nearly doubled, reaching 5.3 billion dollars, according to Armenia's state statistics agency. Armenia's exports to Russia nearly tripled, from 850 million dollars in 2021 to 2.4 billion dollars the following year. Imports from Russia were up 151 percent, reaching 2.87 billion dollars.
The trend continues apace. The total trade volume for January-August, 2023 surpassed 4.16 billion dollars, a record level since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Exports from Armenia to Russia in this period totaled 2.3 billion dollars and for the first time exceeded the import figure, which stood at 1.86 billion dollars.
Unsurprisingly, most of Armenia's exports to Russia these days are in fact re-exports of Western products that Moscow is no longer able to get directly.
Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan recently framed the centrality of re-export in the structure of trade with Russia in stark terms: He said that while exports to Russia were up 215 percent for the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, re-export accounted for 187 percentage points of this growth while exports of Armenian products accounted for just 28 percentage points.
The overall effect is that, since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has greatly strengthened its positions in Armenia's economy. And many worry that this growing dependence on Russia could greatly limit Armenia's room for maneuver in the political arena.
"The fact that 55-56 percent of exports to Russia are not raw materials but finished goods, speaks to Armenia's high degree of dependence. And in these conditions, if Moscow introduces sanctions, they will be very painful for Armenia," said Suren Parsyan, the economist, adding that there is little prospect for redirecting these goods to Western markets.
"Quality standards are different there. It would require overhauling whole sectors of the economy, which is a complicated and time-consuming process. And during this time many businesses would close, which would cause growth in unemployment and a worsening of the overall social-economic situation," Parsyan said.
He added that he has not seen any real attempts by the Armenian authorities to diversify the country's economic relations and reduce its dependence on Russia.
Economics not influencing politics
There is no sign that Armenia's increased economic cooperation with Russia is having any influence on the growing political crisis between the two countries, according to analyst and director of the Caucasus Institute, Aleksandr Iskandaryan.
He pointed to Prime Minister Pashinyan's recent statement that Armenia does not intend to change its foreign policy vector despite its displeasure with Moscow's refusal to support Yerevan in the conflict with Azerbaijan as well as Pashinyan's recent remark to The Wall Street Journal that Armenia does not benefit from the presence of roughly 10,000 Russian soldiers on its territory.
"The thing is that, so far, this crisis has not gone beyond the level of discourse. There have been no institutional changes in Armenian-Russian relations. They [such changes] are spoken about, they're discussed, but Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Union. If and when relations deteriorate at the institutional level, interactions will deteriorate at the institutional level as well," Iskandaryan told Eurasianet.
By Arshaluis Mgdesyan via Eurasianet.org
When it comes to Eurasia’s South Caucasus region, the _expression_ “to the victor belong the spoils” seemingly does not apply in foreign policy circles.
Today, the victor in Karabakh overwhelmingly receives condemnation, including from the U.S. government and California lawmakers.
Azerbaijan’s September victory in Karabakh — completing the liberation of formerly Armenia-occupied territories that began with Armenia’s surrender in the nations’ 44-day war in 2020 — is persistently met with accusations of “forcible displacement,” “ethnic cleansing,” and even “genocide.” Commentators lament how Karabakh’s “fight for independence” has ended.
The Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues, which includes California-based U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff and David Valadao, last month accused Azerbaijan of “implementing a genocidal campaign against the Armenian people of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Schiff later introduced a resolution to require the State Department to report on the human rights practices of Azerbaijan, repeating the accusation that the country is “actively engaged in ethnic cleansing or genocide.”
Yet as 100,000 Armenians recently departed the region, such claims are devoid of both historical context and present realities on the ground.
According to the U.N. Human Rights Council, Azerbaijan hosts more than 650,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), largely resulting from Armenia’s three-decade-long occupation of Karabakh — which four U.N. Security Council resolutions repeatedly reaffirm is Azerbaijani territory. As the narrative of Armenian displacement dominates today’s headlines, these Azerbaijani refugees are continuously forgotten.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, in a call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan “reaffirmed U.S. support for Armenia’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” USAID Administrator Samantha Power has used the same language. This means that longstanding State Department policy, which explicitly “supports the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” and “does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country,” is disregarded at Foggy Bottom.
These double standards on IDPs and territorial integrity reflect an American policy rooted in a spur-of-the-moment reaction to the current situation, ignoring more than 30 years of history in the region.
What occurred in Karabakh from the early 1990s until 2020? It was Azerbaijanis, in fact, who were killed en masse and displaced within their country’s internationally recognized border.
Armenia’s occupation was marked by not only neglect but intentional destruction of the area — which remains painfully visible today through looted homes, mosques (including those that were used to house livestock), and cemeteries, and what U.N. experts estimate to be more than 1 million explosive devices in the area. What had once been a lush green area with vineyards as well as thriving wheat and cotton production prior to the occupation was decimated, as springs were blocked to divert water for military purposes.
Subsequently, what occurred between Azerbaijan’s victories in 2020 and 2023? When Armenia’s military had several weeks to withdraw from Karabakh following their surrender in the 2020 war, they used the time to plant difficult-to-detect explosives such as remote-controlled and plastic mines, posing threats to Azerbaijan’s redevelopment of Karabakh and the return of Azerbaijani IDPs to peaceful life in their homes.
Armenia has used the Lachin road — the road connecting Armenia with Karabakh — to transport landmines and plant them in the territory of Azerbaijan. At the same time, Azerbaijan faced widespread accusations that it had closed the Lachin road, even while it kept the road open to Armenians for humanitarian purposes.
The current U.S. administration and California lawmakers, however, have echoed the Armenian perspective to the detriment of international law and American interests. In contrast to his supportive words for Pashinyan, Blinken asked Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev “to refrain from further hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide unhindered humanitarian access.”
Azerbaijan remains the key to U.S. national interests in the region as the administration navigates the complexities of policy toward Russia, China, and Iran. But Washington fails to give Baku the attention it deserves.
It must be asked: What is driving U.S. policy in the South Caucasus? Is it religion, given Armenia’s predominantly Christian population and Azerbaijan’s Muslim majority (though with strong interfaith and secular traditions)? Might it be partisan politics, shaped by the support Armenia receives from Congressional Democrats and its sizable diaspora in the blue state of California? And how does this skewed policy advance American and Californian interests?
It is incumbent upon U.S. and California leaders to understand that the world is watching their response in the South Caucasus. Regrettably, America’s allies and adversaries alike are witnessing a policy that practices double standards, lacks a moral compass, and fails to acknowledge decades of context in the region.
Americans are likely to be left with more questions than answers. Yet in the absence of a clear understanding of the administration’s motivation, the least they should expect of Washington is a balanced approach. Only then can the U.S. live up to its promise as a trustworthy broker of an enduring peace in the South Caucasus.
Jacob Kamaras is the editor and publisher of the San Diego Jewish World, the former editor-in-chief of the Jewish News Syndicate, and the founder of Stellar Jay Communications, a PR firm representing Azerbaijan.