Category: 2023

Messenger, Georgia

Nov 20 2023

The delegation from the Parliament of Georgia actively participated in the 21st autumn meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in Yerevan.

As per the Parliament's press service, Nikoloz Samkharadze, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and leader of the permanent Georgian Parliament delegation, discussed the visit of OSCE President Pia Kauma and the delegation to Georgia, along with highlighting Georgia's regional role in his address.

Samkharadze conveyed Georgia's readiness to facilitate peace dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, offering Tbilisi as a potential venue for negotiations. He expressed hope that, with the commitment publicly expressed by both sides, lasting peace between the two brotherly neighboring countries could be achieved in the coming months.

"I believe it was a very timely visit to assess the current situation and explore the possibilities of establishing lasting peace in the South Caucasus. It was also crucial for the delegation to visit the occupation line and the settlements of internally displaced persons-individuals who have been unable to return to their homes for more than 15 years, with some enduring displacement for up to 30 years due to the Russian occupation. I would like to emphasize that Georgia is ready to facilitate the peace dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

We are prepared to offer Tbilisi as a venue for negotiations, and we hope that, with the commitment that both sides have publicly expressed and made, we will be able to celebrate lasting peace between our two brotherly neighboring countries in the coming months. From our side, Georgia is ready to facilitate the dialogue," said Samkharadze.

In response to the leader of the Georgian parliamentary delegation, Pia Kauma, the president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, expressed her pleasure in visiting Georgia and highlighted the significance of the moment. She noted that Georgia has been granted the status of a candidate for the European Union, with the official announcement expected in December.

Pia Kauma reaffirmed the OSCE's full support for Georgia's territorial integrity and emphasized the organization's commitment to promoting peace in the region, particularly between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Grey Dynamics

Nov 20 2023

JULIA DAY

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region in the southern Caucasus that has been subject to a lengthy territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and neighbouring Armenia. While it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, it was governed by the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, also referred to as the Republic of Artsakh. Nagorno-Karabakh consists of a large ethnic Armenian majority.

On September 19th, Azerjabaijani forces overwhelmed the defenders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, whose government believes it will cease to exist by January 2024. The conflict has caused a humanitarian crisis and mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the territory. Azerbaijan has rejected accusations of ethnic-cleansing in the region. 

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, expressed that the military operation has created “genuine prospects for a prompt peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. On October 26th, a potential agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was brokered. The “Crossroads of Peace” agreement would reopen roads and railways with Armenia’s neighbours, including Azerbaijan, that have been closed for decades.

Key Judgement 1. Western nations will likely confine their opposition to Azerbaijan’s intervention to diplomatic protest and humanitarian support in the next 6 months.  

Key Judgement 2. In the next 6 months, Iran will likely play a key role in mitigating Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. 

Key Judgement 3. In the next 6 months, Turkey will likely continue to maintain its military support for Azerbaijan despite the numerous humanitarian concerns in Karabakh.

a. Armenia asked the EU for humanitarian aid, including medical supplies and temporary shelters after the outbreak of the conflict in September. The office of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni said in a statement that Rome is working to promote stabilisation in the region [source]

b. While France promises to boost Armenia air defence with anti-air missiles, it is the only Western nation to do so. However, this escalation will not likely to renew any kind of military conflict. [source]

c. On October 3rd, the German government  called for a ‘permanent presence’ in Nagorno-Karabakh, calling for the need for ‘transparency’ and ‘trust’ in Azerbaijan to protect the rights of its residents. [source]

d. In September, Armenia asked the ICJ to order Azerbaijan to withdraw all its troops from civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh and to give the UN access. However it is now unlikely that the ICJ will intervene. [source]

a. On October 23rd, Iran hosted talks between Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan regarding this conflict. Following these talks, both sides agreed that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. [source]

b. Iran is carefully navigating negotiations between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the initial breakout of the conflict, Iran has been calling for resolution through dialogue. [source]

c. From 2016 to 2020, Iran supplies Azerbaijan with an estimated 70 percent of its arms. [source]

d.  Iranian General Mohammad Baqeri said Azerbaijan was restoring its ‘territorial integrity” in its operation in Karabakh in September. [source]

a. In the week of October 22nd, Turkey and Azerbaijan participated in a joint military simulation on rural settlement combat. The exercise allegedly took place in Nagorno-Karabakh. [source]

b. The construction of the Nakhchivan gas pipeline will likely be completed in 2024, connecting through the Turkey, Azerbaijan border. On September 25th, Edrohan and Aliyev attended a ceremony to launch its construction. [source]

c. A long-time ally of Azerbaijan, Turkey has pledged its support for the military intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh. [source]

d. Erdohan has mentioned that Iran is warming up to a joint Turkish-Azeri transport corridor that would connect Turkey to Azerbaijan through Armenia. [source]

We are confident in our assessment that Nagorno-Karabakh will continue being a humanitarian crisis to the greater Caucasus region. This is based on our judgement of local and international press reports as well as NGO and Think Tank reporting. We assume that the “Crossroads of Peace” agreement will go through as planned.

Should this assumption be incorrect, we would expect to see a drawn out negotiation process. We considered the alternative that French military aid to Armenia will escalate the conflict, but judged it unlikely due to the ongoing communication efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Should this happen, we will reconsult with our sources and adjust our assessment accordingly.

Intelligence Cut-off Date:

Nov 19 2023

 One of the polling stations our team, comprised of international editors and journalists, visited was located within a community of those people displaced after Armenia’s invasion of Karabakh. I was expecting to see something like a refugee camp, what I found however was something else altogether.

What we found was a settled and safe community with all the amenities one would expect of any town or city in Azerbaijan, or indeed, anywhere in western Europe.

I was able to talk with older members of the Azerbaijan community, including one gentleman, a former schoolteacher,  who was present when on February 26th 1992, Armenian forces in Khojaly murdered 613 civilians, including 106 women and 63 children. 

With tears in his eyes he asked me “what could I do to stop it? I was a teacher, I didn’t even have a rifle.”

Whilst younger members of the community, born in Azerbaijan, have fully integrated into the wider society, helped by preferential educational programmes, the older members were united in one aim: to return to their homes, their lives, all stolen during the illegal annexation by Armenian forces, backed by Russian troops and tanks.

In my heart I felt that they were unlikely to ever return home. But now they are returning.

A group of Azerbaijani parliamentarians recently visited Brussels, taking time to meet with journalists, to discuss how his country sees future relations with Armenia.

Tural Ganjaliyev, who chairs the EU-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, explained that despite the events of the past those Armenians who had settled in Karabakh were welcome to stay.

He explained that those who fled when Azerbaijani troops reclaimed the territory would be welcomed back, pre-empting a ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the matter given on Friday (Nov. 16th).

He also pointed out that whilst Azerbaijan encouraged Armenians to stay, the Armenian military called on them to leave.

The ICJ has ordered Azerbaijan to submit a report within eight weeks on the progress on the return of Armenians.

The Azerbaijani government has launched a website for Armenians who had left Karabakh to register to return, Mr. Ganjaliyev explained, however Armenia has blocked access to it.

“We hope the Armenians will come back”, he told journalists. 

“We also ask the Armenian authorities to establish a way for the 300,000 Azerbaijanis who were expelled in the 1980s to come back, it should be a two-way street. We will invite or allow UN missions, at least according to my view, to come frequently to visit this region to assess the facts on the ground”.

Vugar Bayramov – who sits on Azerbaijan’s Parliamentary Committee for Economic Policy, Industries and Enterprise – pointed out that an end to the frozen conflict that has destabilised the region for decades could have a massively positive impact not only on the economies of Azerbaijan and Armenia but also Georgia because the three countries of the South Caucasus could form a strong single market.

Azerbaijan, Georgia and potentially Armenia form part of the Middle Corridor trade route which links Asia and Europe via the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and Turkiye.

Mr Bayramov spoke of how an east-west transport route would benefit Armenia, both in terms of its own logistics and by helping to build a sustainable peace.

“If there is communication between Azerbaijan and Armenia, then of course, it will ensure a lasting and sustainable peace for the region” he said.

That will need time, he acknowledged, but the normalisation process could be fast. He envisaged a future where Azerbaijan invested in Armenia, much as it currently does in Georgia and Turkey.

https://eutoday.net/azerbaijan/

Shore News Network

Nov 19 2023

JERSEY CITY, N.J. – In a significant move, the U.S. Senate has passed the Armenian Protection Act of 2023, receiving commendation from Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.). The act aims to halt military aid to the Azeri government, accused of committing genocide against the Armenian community in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Senator Menendez, a vocal advocate for the legislation, expressed his satisfaction and ongoing commitment to the cause. He emphasized the systematic and brutal nature of the atrocities committed against the Armenians, advocating for sanctions against those responsible.

Menendez is currently facing federal bribery and corruption charges. The Department of Justice has alleged Menendez is a foreign agent of Egypt.

The passage of this act highlights the U.S. Senate’s stance on human rights violations and its commitment to protecting vulnerable communities. Senator Menendez stressed the importance of standing in solidarity with the Armenian people, aligning with the broader goals of U.S. foreign policy centered on human rights.

This development marks a significant step in addressing the long-standing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and reflects the U.S. government’s resolve to intervene in matters of international humanitarian concern. The legislation’s impact on U.S.-Azerbaijan relations and its broader geopolitical implications are yet to be seen.