Category: 2022

Since April 1, the price of gas in Armenia has risen by an average of 4․1%, by the minimum for socially disadvantaged residents of the country, and the maximum for businesses. The Public Services Regulatory Commission granted the request of Gazprom Armenia to revise gas tariffs. This company is a 100% subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom.

Earlier, following the results of the Armenian-Russian negotiations, an agreement was reached on “applying a mechanism for adjusting the price of gas according to calorific value (calorific value)”. In recent years, the Russia has supplied gas to Armenia in the amount of 8,300 kilocalories, which is 400 kilocalories more than the norm fixed in the bilateral agreement. But now it will be necessary to pay more for better quality gas.

Meanwhile, tariffs for electricity and water have already increased in 2022. And the increase in the gas tariff will, according to economists, lead to an increase in the prices of goods.

• How can anti-Russian sanctions affect Armenia?
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• Double-digit inflation instead of double-digit economic growth: Armenia’s economy in 2021

Different tariffs for different consumer groups

“We have such a situation that, according to the agreement signed back in 2013, there was a calculation formula, the implementation of which begins in 2022. According to this formula, the price of gas at the border should be calculated based on the calorie content”, Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan said at the beginning of the year.

Gazprom Armenia initially planned a 6% increase in gas prices in Armenia at a single tariff of 135.6 drams (about 30 cents) per cubic meter of natural gas of 8,500 kilocalories.

Following discussions with the government, the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission decided to establish differentiated tariffs for different consumer groups. For vulnerable segments of the population, the current tariff of 100 drams (21 cents) will remain valid, for everyone else it will increase. The remaining consumers will pay 143.7 drams, which is 4.7 drams more than what they paid before. For enterprises that use large volumes (more than 10,000 cubic meters per month), the tariff increases by 3.9%, for greenhouses – by up to 4.5%.

Since February 1, the tariff for electricity has risen in price. The growth amounted to 4.7 drams per kWh on average, a differentiated approach is also applied here for different consumer groups.

As the reason for the increase in tariffs, Armenia’s failure to fulfill its obligations to the Russian side is indicated. This refers to the return of a loan of $ 270 million taken to modernize the Armenian nuclear power plant, as well as unfulfilled obligations to the Russian Gazprom company.

Under an agreement signed in 2013, Armenia committed to ensure the return and profitability of investments invested in the 5th power unit of the Hrazdan TPP, owned by Gazprom. But this did not happen, and the credit burden also increased. Now, starting from February 1, Armenia will have to pay Gazprom about $32 million a year for the next ten years.

Since January 1, 2022, drinking water has also risen in price. Instead of 180 drams (37 cents) per cubic meter, consumers pay 20 drams more – 200.47 drams (41 cents). The tariff remained unchanged only for socially unsecured families.

According to economist Suren Parsyan, several companies measure the calorific value of gas in Armenia, including Gazprom Armenia itself, the Yerevan and Hrazdan thermal power plants, and the Ararat cement plant. This list also includes several private companies “interested in obtaining real indicators”.

The expert says that last year there were months when the calorific value of gas from Russia reached 9,000. It is possible that this year the average indicator (8500 kcal) will be exceeded.

However, according to the economist, people will use the same amount of gas, but will pay more.

“Obviously, the calculation of the calorie coefficient was introduced solely to increase prices. That is, they show society that they did not increase the price of gas, but actually increased it by introducing a calorie coefficient. The population will use the same amount of gas, but will pay more”, Parsyan told JAMnews.

He believes that the increase in tariffs for water, electricity and gas will also lead to an increase in the prices of goods and will significantly affect the standard of living of people:

“In the past and this year, people’s incomes have not grown much, moreover, last year’s inflation was so high that it simply devoured all their incomes. This year we will also have rather high inflation due to the increase in utility tariffs”.

According to the expert, the business will also suffer losses․ For the second time in the last three years, the price of gas for enterprises has increased. As a result, he says, businesses will become less competitive:

“Within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union [it operates under the auspices of Russia, Armenia is its member – JAMnews], the gas tariff is now lower only in comparison with Kyrgyzstan. Other countries [the union also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan] have an incomparably competitive gas tariff, which allows them to produce cheaper goods. And our producers will simply be forced out of the market”.

In conclusion, Suren Parsyan added that amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, serious upheavals are already taking place in Armenia:

“And the increase in the gas tariff will deal a serious blow to an already weakened economy”.

How Russians who escaped to Yerevan live

According to the existing data, approximately 50,000 – 100,000 citizens of Russia have arrived in the Armenian capital in March this year. Some of them went to Georgia, some will return (or have already returned) home – but some will settle there indefinitely. Will small Armenia be able to become a second home for them?

A report by Novaya Gazeta correspondent Natalya Lavrinovich from Yerevan, which is now hosting more Russians than in the high of a tourist season.

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Check-in for a flight to Yerevan at Mineralnye Vody airport is delayed for half an hour. Some are waiting impatiently, a Cuban couple is walking their dogs – two tiny chihuahuas, citizens of Tajikistan are squatting down. Finally, a door to the international departures hall opens.

First comes a passport control with a spectacular blonde in the window.

— Where are you flying to? How long are you going to stay in the destination country?

I’m telling the truth: “I’m flying to Armenia, and from there, I’ll probably go to Georgia. My medicines included in the Vital and Essential Drug List have disappeared from sale. I present a certificate of a disabled person, extracts from a medical institution and a prescription.

The face of the Snow Queen softens as she puts a stamp and says goodbye.

There are two more employees in the hallway on the way to the front desk. “Dollars, euros?” they ask a little conspiratorially. “Alcohol, alcohol, chickens go-a-achie”, peddlers used to walk around the stations in the mid-90s with the same intonation. Again I tell the truth: “I have some, but not much.”

The flight of Azimuth Airlines takes off almost on time, which is rather rare these days. “The flight has been rescheduled for 21.30, the flight has been canceled”, these announcements fill the lines of the Departures scoreboard of the Minvody airport.

Zvartnots International Airport

Flights to Istanbul and Yerevan are canceled and rescheduled. Turkish low-cost carrier Pegasus Airlines has curtailed its flight program to Russia until the end of April. Until April 15, all flights to the Armenian capital were canceled by Armenia air company. Cancellations were recorded with Utair. Red Wings and Azimuth are still relatively reliable.

After 50 minutes, as soon as the mountains appeared in a cloudy haze, the plane lands at the Zvartnots airport. “Facebook! Instagram! Without a VPN!” a young girl in line in front of me rejoices. “Air of freedom!”, several people say at the same time. The crowd is diverse: people with children, with pets – in conversations about relocation to Armenia and Georgia local citizens are surprised that Russians take their pets with them everywhere. Huge suitcases crawl along the baggage belt: no one knows when they will be able to return back or whether they will return at all.

Passport control takes minutes. A couple more to show a PCR test or vaccination certificate (Sputnik V is also accepted). Welcome to Armenia! Barev dzez!

“I have never seen so many bright faces on the streets, even in Moscow,” laughs Arshaluys Mghdesyan, journalist and political commentator for CivilNet channel. “It’s mostly young people, there are almost no people over 40 among them. My friend says that he lives on the outskirts of Yerevan, in Nor Aresh. He has never seen Russians in his area before, but now there are a lot of them”.

According to Arshaluys, there are no official figures on how many people moved to Armenia during these four weeks: “Some of those who arrived are Armenians: both guest workers and citizens of Russia. Some fear general mobilization, others notice the deterioration of the business environment. How to count Russians is also unclear: many of them use the country as a passage to Georgia. During the peak dates of transportation, the first two weeks of March, up to 42–43 flights were made from Russia to Armenia, which is 8,500 people a day”.

Rough estimates show that between 50,000 and 100,000 Russians arrived in the country in March. How many of them have settled in the capital remains unknown.

The second wave is expected in April.

According to Armenian realtors and hostels, before the “special operation” the occupancy of the apartment and room stock was at the level of 40% – a normal figure for this time of year. Now it is 75-80%: there are still places to live, but rented housing has already risen in price by at least 30-40%, and in many cases even more.

Arshaluys and his family rent a small two-room apartment on the border of the center and residential areas for $300. In a month, rent in the area has increased by $100 or more. “There were cases when the owner of the apartment called and told the tenants: “I am raising the price. Either you agree or I rent it out to Russians”, he says.

Contracts among tenants and landlords here are rare, because this means official taxes and an increase in the final price. They prefer to make deals verbally.

“Now we often see situations where tenants terminate their old contracts and rent out housing at new prices”, says political scientist Johnny Melikyan. “I think that by the summer everything will stabilize, there will be a balance of supply and demand. Moreover, the government has a program designed for young Armenian families, when interest on a mortgage loan can be paid using income tax. It is expected that next year it will spread to the regions, and, perhaps, people with a permanent residence permit will also be able to participate in it.

Despite this, Russians are universally treated with great sympathy, which is felt even at the everyday level.

Nurse Maria sits next to me in a funny little (yet regular) bus. Knowing where I’m from and overtaken by emotions, she hugs me. We leave together, and Maria, despite objections, pays 100 drams to the driver for me.

Tour guide Rosa serves lahmajun, a thin flatbread with minced meat, at her favorite café and refuses to take money. For Rosa, in this strange March, all business went awry: those who had been planning to come for a long time postponed their arrival indefinitely. The new residents of Yerevan have not yet come to their senses, they have no time for excursions. But there are also pleasant exceptions: someone had enough money for a one-way ticket, they will go back by bus, but the vacation was not canceled; On March 29, a large Russian group of tourists is due to fly on Aeroflot.

“Recently, we helped transport an IT company where one employee was an Azerbaijani with Russian citizenship”, Rosa says. “We were very afraid that he would be deported. But everything worked out: he was interrogated for an hour at passport control, but in the end they let him into the country”.

“I have been sitting here every day for four years”, says Artur, owner of the Old Shop antique shop on Khachatur Abovyan Street. The second floor is filled with carpets, on the first – figurines in national clothes are mixed with busts of Lenin, daggers are diluted with samovars. Previously, Arthur kept a similar shop on Rublyovka, “next to Gazmanov’s house”, but in recent years he returned to his homeland – his mother is aged, she needs help. “There are a lot of Russians. Yesterday some of yours came, bought three mahogany elephants, each figurine costs $50. If you need something, come and ask, I will always explain”.

“There are various sociological surveys that show that the Armenians generally treat the Russian population kindly, their arrival is perceived with a plus sign.

They don’t see a threat in Russia, moreover, they see it as a country that can help Armenia restore its potential after the war”, says Arshaluys Mgdesyan. – On the other hand, Russia is the guarantor of Armenia’s security on a contractual basis. This is a rather large dependence both in the economic and political aspects. There is a huge category of people working in Russia and sending money from there. In 2020, according to official figures, it was about $824 million, one-fifth of Armenia’s budget.

“We didn’t care where we went, as long as we escaped”

“There are five times more Russians in our hotel”, says Khoren, the owner of a chamber hostel in the city center. “That is, for the summer such a figure would be normal, but not in March”.

A two-story hotel resembles Noah’s Ark: not every creature is paired here, but each guest has their own, often difficult story.

Greta, a Karabakh Armenian from Shusha, a refugee. She left her entire family 11 kilometers south of Stepanakert, but Greta herself has been living in Yerevan for more than a year, currently in a tiny four-bed female dormitory. Greta’s relatives have been left without gas for two weeks: as a result of unclear circumstances, the gas pipeline in the region collapsed. The Armenian side accused the Azerbaijani side of not allowing the repair work to be carried out.

“For two weeks, children do not go to schools and kindergartens, people do not work”, Greta explains. “They warm themselves with firewood, cook food on a fire”.

This March turned extremely cold in Armenia: on 24th, Yerevan was once again covered with snow, which fell in fluffy flakes on the violets that began to bloom. A year ago at this time, the country was a peach orchard in full bloom. Greta has high hopes for the Russian peacekeeping troops stationed in Karabakh: they should take over the negotiation process. Negotiations have been going on for the fourth day, but so far without effect: over 100,000 people are still left without heating and hot water.

Amid all the worries, a friend from Moscow calls Greta on the speakerphone: “Everything is fine with us!” she shouts, constantly breaking into a cheerful mater. “And what about Putin? What is he to blame for?!”

Manicurist Greta hangs up and goes to the salon for the day. The work is very hard, but if you try hard, you can earn from $500 to $1000 a month. “You have a bad manicure in Russia,” she delivers a verdict. The woman has already filled out an application and is waiting in line to go to Abu Dhabi, where a master of her level is paid three times more.

There is Peter. Peter is originally from Kharkiv, but in recent years he lived with his mother in the Crimea. He is 21 years old, he has two passports – Russian and Ukrainian, Yerevan is a transit base for him. With the Russian passport, he left the Crimea for Mineralnye Vody, from there, also by Azimuth, he arrived in Yerevan.

Now in Yerevan you can often meet people with luggage – just from the airport

With a Ukrainian passport, the young man is going to fly to Vienna, then to Leipzig, where his grandparents live in a special care home. When something that cannot be named began, the Kharkiv old people were put in a taxi and taken first to Cherkasy (for a fee equivalent to 50,000 rubles), then by bus to the Polish border. In Poland, they were intercepted by completely unfamiliar German volunteers and transported to Leipzig.

“My grandparents live well, they have already received benefits in a two-room apartment given to them. But they complain about the lack of social circle: out of the many guests of this house, no one speaks Russian. Only volunteers with knowledge of the language sometimes help with everyday issues”.

Peter is listening to Alexei Arestovich’s speech. Sometimes he texts friends: they all left Kharkiv, most of them are safe now. At the same time, Petya’s stepbrother is participating in hostilities on the side of Ukraine, and his brother’s wife went to friends, to the north of the Kharkiv region, to the Russian border: it is not at all logical, but together it as not so scary.

Here is Oleg and Tatyana from St. Petersburg, an IT specialist and a financier. When Tatyana went outside for the first time after covid and saw a minibus with the letter Z, she felt sick.

“We didn’t care where we went, we just wanted to escape from there”, the girl says. They were not stopped by the fact that Tanya’s international passport will expire this year, and it will take Russian consulate in Armenia at least six months to make a new one.

Oleg has an open Schengen visa, they are happy to accept him in Scandinavia, but the captain of the reserve categorically refused to go to Finland or Sweden without Tatyana. And without a residence permit, she will not receive a Schengen in Armenia.

The cost of direct flights to Yerevan in early March reached 75,000-80,000 rubles one way, so the couple went through Istanbul, and from there flew to the capital of Armenia.

They have been in this hostel for almost two weeks and one of these days they are moving into a rented apartment. They rented a Euro-room apartment 15 minutes from the center for six months for $600 a month. Both are optimistic about the prospects of finding a job here: the IT sector is being relocated to Armenia by entire labor collectives.

“Our friends in Moscow were told: whoever does not want to move should leave of their own free will. Everyone wanted to leave”. And although Yandex denied the message about moving the headquarters to Yerevan, the number of company employees who arrived in the country in recent weeks has reached a hundred, and a search for coworking is underway for them.

The couple has already realized that local IT representatives were wary of the prospect of increased competition. The same will soon apply to other professions. “But on the other hand, the formation of a new diaspora will lead to the fact that Russians – baristas, barbers, nannies, journalists, gallery owners, etc. — will work for themselves”, says Tatyana. She herself intends to look for a job as a financier.

On the street in Yerevan

“Without knowledge of the language, it is quite difficult to find a job in state institutions, there are other segments where knowledge of Armenian is mandatory. But great importance is attached to IT, tourism, export, knowledge of Russian and English is encouraged. The IT sector is developed here. They say that those who are used to advertising and advertising go to Georgia, this direction is developed there.

Information technology is quite developed in Armenia, there are a lot of vacancies, professionals, regardless of whether they know Russian, English or Burundian, are in great demand. And their average salary starts at $3,000”, says Arshaluys Mgdesyan. “I think a good specialist will find a Jobe everywhere. There is a great shortage of qualified personnel in Armenia, ranging from locksmiths and plumbers to warehouse managers, furniture makers, representatives of the service sector, etc”.

Several Russian colleagues came to see his friend, a very famous professor at New York University. They live in the same apartment “until better times.” In Armenian social networks, the community offers to do everything to keep the professorship here – this is a great incentive and a chance for the students of the country.

“We are all in the Eurasian Union, and the idea of its creation was based on four freedoms, one of which is the freedom of movement of labor”, says Johnny Melikyan. “For many years after the creation of the Eurasian Union, it acted in one direction: Armenian citizens went to Russia to work. Now it turns out that there is still a return flow, there are people who come here in the hope of finding a job.

Competitive specialists will probably be able to get a job here, especially people with experience in such head offices in Moscow as Ernst & Young and the like. But there will probably be dozens of them, no more. The rest may have problems: our market is still small, knowledge of the state language is important in many places. But the sphere of tourism, service, etc. will live, will be engaged in compatriots. For example, the Iranians succeed in this, they open firms, translation offices, law offices that serve mainly their citizens.

Those who cannot afford an apartment at the new Yerevan prices are advised to join co-living or consider other cities in the country. What is rented in the capital for 200,000 tdrams (or $400), in Gyumri, located 100 kilometers from Yerevan, can be rented for half the amount, and in Vanadzor for $150.

Moving to Armenia theoretically has many advantages.

The order of prices here is comparable to the Russian one. For the time being, the first settlers, who shop together in SAS and Yerevan City, analogues of the expensive Moscow Azbuka Vkusa, did not appreciate the advantages of markets and small private shops, but experience is something that can be acquired.

For Russians in Armenia, there is a simplified process of obtaining a residence permit. Registration of an individual entrepreneur, that is, your own business, takes a day (a week – in the most difficult case).

It is easy to open an account and get a multi-currency card here, and Mir cards are accepted everywhere.

Armenians almost everywhere speak good Russian, signs in the metro are duplicated in Russian, many houses have an address written in Cyrillic.

There are several schools in the city that work entirely according to Russian programs, there are separate classes, there are private Russian-speaking educational institutions, even in “ordinary” Armenian schools, Russian lessons are obligatory from the 2nd grade. True, these classes are overcrowded, and the number of students can reach up to 30. But demand creates supply, new ones will open.

What will happen in practice – the future will show.

Now even an ordinary walk through the streets of the capital turns into a nostalgic journey: in the park in front of the opera house, a man in a cellophane “house”, hiding from rain and snow, plays the keys “Beautiful is far away”.

But will staying in the country be safe for those who face persecution in their home country? Or can membership in the CSTO be a reason for repeating the Belarusian scenario, when Russian activists who have been noted in the protests in Belarus are detained and sent to serve criminal terms in Zhodino, Vitebsk and Baranovichi?

“My Russian colleagues asked me about this, but I don’t think it will come to that”, comments Arshaluys Mgdesyan. “Well, what did the relocants do? A couple of statements, they wrote something on social networks. Among these people, perhaps 10 percent are political activists, others have moved for various reasons.

I do not think that Armenia will become an island of the Russian liberal opposition, a second London. But the situation is very, very uncertain. It all depends on how quickly it all ends, how long the sanctions against Russia will be. If something changes in a month or two, concessions will begin, of course, many will go back. It’s rational, it’s normal”.

A popular place in the center of Yerevan (near the monument to M. Saryan), artists sell their paintings and play chess, waiting for buyers

Armenia is balancing between Russia and the West

Armenia has found itself in a difficult situation stuck between Russia and the West. The Ukrainian crisis has further exacerbated this situation. Taking sides for Armenia is an excessive luxury. Such a step for it, according to most local experts, is deadly. And the authorities of Armenia still prefer to remain neutral.

At the same time, the situation in the region has worsened again. A soldier has been killed on the border of Armenia, and in Nagorno-Karabakh, peaceful settlements are being shelled along the entire perimeter of the line of contact. In addition, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces play a recording in Armenian through loudspeakers, calling on their residents to leave their homes in order to save their lives.

How can events develop, what kind of support can Armenia expect from the West or Russia? Comments by political observer Hakob Badalyan and chairman of the NGO “Free Citizen” Hovsep Khurshudyan.

• Armenian-Azerbaijani escalation: reports from both sides
• Nagorno-Karabakh gas pipeline damage: technical problems or Azerbaijani sabotage?
• “Russia ousted the West from the South Caucasus” – former co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group
• What is the right strategy for Armenia, stuck between the foreign policy ambitions of Russia and Turkey?

“Armenia has always found itself in a difficult situation, when the West and Russia entered a regime of tough resistance. Now the main task for Armenia is not to be on anyone’s side in terms of conducting practical politics. It is clear that Armenia is a member of the CSTO military bloc and the EAEU economic union [both operate under the auspices of Russia – JAMnews], that is, by default, it is already on this side.

But we are talking about a practical policy that can be adequately perceived in the West, even if they see some steps towards Russia.

The West understands that Armenia has many problems, including security, so no one is pushing it to take any action that could provoke an aggressive reaction from Russia.

That is why Armenia should strive for active neutrality, but in such a way that its policy is understandable to both Russia and the West.

Moreover, Armenia should work not only with Russia and the West, it should continue the dialogue with Turkey to improve relations, at least maintain the communication that has been formed today. This is important given the increasing political role of Turkey in the Ukrainian issue.

I would especially single out Georgia in this situation, for which, just like for Armenia, a stable situation in the region is very important, and it is very important not to get drawn into this the tension that exists between Russia and the West. And if we combine even the behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts of both countries – Armenia and Georgia – then the neutral policy in the current situation will become even more effective.

From the point of view of economic risks, Armenia should try to intensify work with the Arab countries, offer them projects that are attractive for their capital in order to neutralize the risks that may arise as a result of the sanctions imposed against Russia”.

“The authorities are behaving optimally so far, which cannot be said about the public, which, due to the lack of institutional leaders, elites, is subjected to both external and internal manipulations. Various rallies held in the country are proof of this. Moreover, manipulations are carried out both in support of Russia and in support of Ukraine.

But both pro-Russian and anti-Russian manifestos are dangerous for Armenia.

I doubt that this is being done at the behest of the Kremlin or the West. I see no reason to think that someone wants to drag Armenia into the Ukrainian crisis. These provocations come, most likely, from different groups from the same Russia, as well as from Russian satellites in Armenia, who are interested in selling their manipulations to political actors. And, unfortunately, our society is vulnerable in this regard – they succumb to these manipulations, they spread them on social media”.

“Against the backdrop of a large-scale war in Ukraine, the situation in the Caucasus can become a tool for Russia. It can “play” with the situation in the Caucasus region if any political projects from the West are used against it. On the other hand, this situation may become a tool in the hands of others to put pressure on Russia itself.

Russia absolutely does not need instability in the Caucasus today because of its own serious problems in connection with Ukraine.

Russia does not need to get another instability behind its back and be forced to deal with it. Therefore, any instability can be viewed as a means of putting pressure on Moscow by those who have influence on Azerbaijan, who are able to force Azerbaijan to escalate by encouraging it to resolve some issues.

It should be noted that the situation in the region is escalating in parallel with the activation of Turkey in the Ukrainian issue. For a long time, Russia tried to reject Turkish offers of mediation, hoping for direct negotiations with the United States. But after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America does not want to talk to Moscow, instead increasing the mediating role of Turkey.

It is possible that the aggravation of the situation in Artsakh is the very tool in the hands of Turkey to put pressure on Moscow in order to obtain a mediation mission in the Ukrainian issue. When Russia sits down with Turkey at the negotiating table, as a rule, it concedes something. For us, this is a very disturbing signal. That is why we must continue to work not only with Russia and the West, but also directly with the Turks, so that once again we do not become the subject of trade and be more flexible”.

“The meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Macron [took place on March 9, the French President invited the Armenian Prime Minister to Paris to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations] is not accidental. Any activity of Turkey puts strain on France as well.

France is already concerned about the whole situation in terms of the role of Europe and its sovereignty in the context of the Ukrainian war. France is concerned about the increasing role of Turkey in one of the key areas for Europe.

Against this background, Armenia, with all its problems, becomes a political tool for France to contain Turkey.

But Macron wants to solve his own problem at the same time. During the pre-election period, the Armenian community is an important factor for the President of France. The Armenians of France are too integrated into French life, the Armenian community has a high rating, and so much so that it can affect the position of the French themselves”.

“Now we see what the West can give Ukraine. It provides weapons that Ukraine resists more strongly, but these weapons do not solve all problems. Ukraine asks to close the sky, but the West does not agree to this, so as not to enter into a direct confrontation with Moscow.

The significance of Armenia and the significance of Ukraine or the Ukrainian game as a whole for the West are incomparable. Therefore, in the event of a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenia, significant assistance from Western countries, in particular, the closure of the sky, can not be expected.

Talking about the inclusion of Russia in this case is completely pointless.

Russia does not have the resources to fight a war on two fronts, in addition, there is no desire to enter the war against Turkey.”

Russia is an ally on paper, but in reality it is not and never will be.

We do not have an alternative security ally, and there is also no possibility of acquiring one. In our case, war is the most undesirable development for Armenia, which can instantly turn into one ruin.”

“In terms of civilization, Armenia is Europe. It was enough just 3 years of democratic development after the Velvet Revolution of 2018, as in all international rankings, Armenia began to catch up, and in many positions even surpass the countries of the Eastern Partnership associated with the European Union in 2013.

Another thing is that the constant existential threat of 30 times the population and resources of Turkey and Azerbaijan and the zero military presence of the West led to the fact that Armenia has long linked its security with Russia.

April war in 2016 and 44 day war 2020 in NK showed that the Kremlin’s kleptocratic elite can not only betray, but simply sell any, even the closest ally.

Now the people of Armenia, even in terms of security, have less and less hope with Russia and more and more with the West.

But the question here is not only that Armenia is between the West and Russia. Much more dangerous is the Kremlin’s strategic plans for Armenia.

It is clear that before attacking Ukraine, Putin intended to create something like the USSR-2. Without Ukraine, such a project was obviously doomed. But if the Kremlin’s adventure in Ukraine had succeeded, there can be no doubt that Armenia would have been the next victim.

Moreover, Putin would act in close cooperation with Aliyev: Azerbaijan would attack Armenia, and Russia would begin to “save” it. As a result, we would lose another part of our territory, the return of which, of course, Russia would not provide. But as a “salvation” from the genocide, the rest would demand to join a new alliance, and with the worst conditions.

Therefore, Ukrainians are now fighting not only for their independence and the right to self-determination, but also for Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.”

Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian war, Baku took an aggressive stance
“Aliyev is again acting in cooperation with Putin, as was the case in 2020 during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as in May 2021, when the Azerbaijani armed forces invaded the territory of Armenia and occupied, according to my estimates and information, about 100 square kilometers territory [the Armenian authorities announced the figure of 41 square kilometers].

Russia and the CSTO [a military bloc under the auspices of Russia, of which Armenia is a member] not only did not stand up for their military and economic ally, but did not even condemn the Azerbaijani provocation and invasion, as did France and the United States.

The Kremlin put pressure on the leadership of Armenia not to boldly turn to the UN Security Council.

Despite the fact that French President Macron openly stated that he was ready to submit a special resolution to the UN Security Council if Armenia turned to it with this issue.

Therefore, the containment of Aliyev from further provocations can be effectively organized only with the help of the West.

On March 9, we saw the almost unanimous (with 635 votes in favor, 2 against and 42 abstentions) adoption of the resolution of the European Parliament “On the destruction of cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh.”

The resolution condemns the anti-Armenian policy of Azerbaijan and emphasizes that the elimination of traces of the Armenian cultural heritage is carried out not only with the intention of harming, but also with the aim of falsifying history and erasing the traces of Armenianness.

Everything goes to the fact that the West is inclined to decide the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh according to the Kosovo scenario.”

“Pashinyan’s meeting with Macron during this period is not at all accidental. He invited Nikol Pashinyan to a meeting in Paris before the latter is due to meet with Vladimir Putin [the meeting with Putin is scheduled for early April].

So the French President clearly makes it clear that the West has something to offer Armenia, including in terms of security.

The West today is more consolidated than ever and has the greatest power to solve many regional problems. Especially after the failure of Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, and also after the achievement of a nuclear agreement with Iran, which I do not doubt for a minute, the West will have much more influence both on Turkey and Azerbaijan, and on the South Caucasus and the Middle East regions as a whole.” .