Category: 2022

Zulfugarov about the situation around Karabakh

Political forces in Armenia are eager to push Azerbaijan against Russia in Karabakh, said the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofik Zulfugarov. But, according to him, everything will be decided based on the results of the war in Ukraine. Zulfugarov is confident that if Azerbaijan decides to clash with Russian troops, it will do so together with Turkey.

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Arguing about the current state of the negotiation process between Baku and Yerevan, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofik Zulfugarov, noted that at the moment Armenia is actually refusing to negotiate.

“Literally – today, the topics of the peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders are irrelevant. Armenia has already made its choice, and the authorities are not worried about these negotiations at the moment. The old policy remains in force. Why?

Because territorial claims remain in force. In Armenia, they believe that now Azerbaijan is not able to change anything in the region. In their opinion, the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh gives them the opportunity to continue their old policy without problems in the current conditions. To be more precise, we are talking about the continuation of the policy of annexation.

Based on this situation, the main goal of Azerbaijan should be to pressure the peacekeepers and conduct negotiations with them. From their leadership, it is necessary to demand the fulfillment of the conditions of the three-party application from November 10, 2020″, Zulfugarov said.

While Russia is busy with the war in Ukraine, and it has no time for problems around Karabakh, the ex-Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan believes:

“If Russia takes up the problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia literally now, then it will have to choose one of the two sides. And this will ultimately lead to the fact that Azerbaijan or Armenia will strengthen contacts with the West. It is for this reason that Russia is playing for time, as if adhering to the policy of “the wolves are fed and the sheep are safe.”

As for the position of Azerbaijan specifically in this situation, I think that Baku is preparing to take new steps in order to solve pressing problems.”

“A lot depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. It is important what policy Russia will follow in the South Caucasus”, Zulfugarov stressed.

In his opinion, Azerbaijan today does not want to go into confrontation with Russia:

“But this does not mean that Azerbaijan will not continue its policy on this issue. On the contrary, Baku will use the force factor. This can be expressed in two directions: diplomatic-political and direct force.

For example, we can witness the establishment of some posts in the Lachin direction, border control along this corridor, and so on. In this question, it is possible to use both of the pressure factors I have mentioned.

In fact, now there are opportunities for this. Because the West and Russia are currently in search of partners, trying to get closer to the countries of the region. It creates new opportunities”.

The former foreign minister of Azerbaijan noted that the general geopolitical trend in the region is changing in favor of Azerbaijan:

“Today the tandem between Azerbaijan and Turkey is too strong. Moscow, in turn, prefers allied relations with Ankara. In addition, Russia’s position in the South Caucasus is weakening. Therefore, the general trend of processes is changing in favor of Baku.

Everyone understands that sooner or later Russia will leave this region. The question arises: who will take its place? Armenia wants the West to take this place. The West is also not opposed to such changes. But it is more than clear to everyone that Turkey is the real power in this region.

After what happened in Afghanistan, the US and French authorities are hardly ready for a military presence in the region. Yes, and France itself has enough problems in Ukraine, in Europe itself, and in northern Africa.

To be honest, if Russia leaves this region, it will want to surrender its positions to Turkey, and not to the West. This is also one of the possible scenarios”.

Answering the question about the possibility of Azerbaijan conducting a counter-terrorist operation in that part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are stationed, Tofig Zulfugarov noted that if it comes to this, then Azerbaijan will not be alone.

“Now the main task of Armenia is the clash between Azerbaijan and Russian peacekeepers, i.e. with Russia. They are well aware that in the event of a violation of the ceasefire by one side or another, the responsibility lies with the peacekeeping contingent. Naturally, the provocations are aimed at clashing the Azerbaijani army with the peacekeepers.

According to the Armenians, in this case, the strategic advantage will go over to their side. Azerbaijan understands this too.

We sometimes hear questions about why Baku does not take decisive steps, the time has come, and so on. etc. It turns out that we should go for a clash with Russia, but here questions arise.

Of course, we will not go against Russia alone, but together with Turkey. But is Turkey ready for this now? And do Baku and Ankara need this at the moment? So far, the general opinion is that this is not the time for such steps.

This means that the most correct tactic is subtle political and diplomatic maneuvers along with pressure. At least at this stage. Let’s see how the situation changes. But I am sure of one thing, geopolitical changes will be in favor of Azerbaijan. But for now, we have to wait”, Zulfugarov summed up his words.

Pashinyan-Erdogan telephone conversation

Armenia and the international Armenian diaspora are buzzing about the telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Erdogan. The Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Turkey held a telephone conversation on June 11. The message distributed by the Armenian government does not say on whose initiative the conversation took place.

This was the first direct contact between Pashinyan and Erdogan. It is reported that the leaders of the two countries emphasized the importance of the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

Armenian politicians consider the Pashinyan-Erdogan telephone conversation as a “step forward” in the normalization of relations. They say that it should not be overestimated, but it cannot be underestimated.

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Much like after the meetings of the special representatives on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, after a telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Erdogan, the parties issued statements of identical content.

Pashinyan congratulated the President of Turkey on the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha, the official website of the Prime Minister of Armenia reports. Erdogan also congratulated the Prime Minister of Armenia on the upcoming Vardavar holiday. This is a traditional holiday in honor of the Transfiguration of the Lord.

“The heads of state stressed the importance of the bilateral process of settling relations between the countries, which will also contribute to strengthening peace and stability in the region”, the statement says.

Pashinyan and Erdogan expressed hope that the agreements reached on July 1 during the last meeting of the special representatives of the two countries “will soon be implemented”.

Earlier, on July 7, Pashinyan touched upon the implementation of agreements with Turkey during a government meeting. He instructed the Armenian departments to work in coordination with the state structures of Turkey so that the agreements reached could come into force as soon as possible.

The Patriarch of the Diocese of Constantinople of the Armenian Apostolic Church, that is, the spiritual leader of the Armenians living in Turkey, welcomed the conversation between Pashinyan and Erdogan. The conversation was “a gift to a world that is outraged by war news”, Archbishop Sahak Mashalyan wrote on his Twitter page:

“I pray that peaceful methods of diplomacy prevail, and not weapons, wars and death. I hope that this telephone conversation will help open a new page of friendship in the thousand-year-old Turkish-Armenian relations”.

Member of the Turkish Parliament, an Armenian by origin, Garo Paylan wrote in his microblog on Twitter:

“I hope that the telephone conversation between President Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan will accelerate the ongoing process of normalizing relations between the two countries”.

The Armenian Special Representative for the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations positively assesses the fact that the leaders of Armenia and Turkey have spoken and discussed the process.

As for the agreements reached during the talks with the Turkish special representative, Ruben Rubinyan assesses them as substantive and concrete.

“One of the most important moments in such complex processes is the rapid implementation of the first agreements. If they are implemented quickly, then this is very conducive to building trust, if they are not implemented, on the contrary, they undermine this trust”, he said and expressed hope that the results would be very soon.

Rubinyan did not give specific dates but said that it would be logical to put the agreements into practice in the coming months.

He did not specify whether the special representatives were preparing a telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Erdogan, but said that no intermediaries were involved.

At the moment, there is no agreement on a meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Turkey, Ruben Rubinyan said.

Armenia’s special representative argues that the success of the normalization process depends on Turkey’s political will. He assures that Armenia is ready to open its borders tomorrow and establish diplomatic relations with Turkey:

“If this does not happen tomorrow, and if Armenia is ready for this, then the implementation depends on the political will of Turkey, because Armenia obviously has such a political will”.

Any step towards a settlement improves the Armenian-Turkish agenda, political analyst Areg Kochinyan believes. He emphasizes that the Pashinyan-Erdogan telephone conversation should not be overestimated, but it should not be underestimated either. It should be seen as a “step forward”.

The political scientist says that the conversation between the leaders of the two countries can lead to different conclusions:

“Someone can say that a substantive process is underway, and as a result we will come to the normalization of relations. Another point of view may be that Turkey is more interested in creating an imitation of the settlement of relations than in a real settlement. It seems to me that reality is somewhere in the center.

The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is based on two key “footholds”: Turkish-American and Russian-Turkish relations, says political observer Hakob Badalyan:

“The suggestion that without balancing these two factors any significant progress in the Armenian-Turkish settlement is possible is wishful thinking. And this balancing act is a very difficult task, especially today.”

The observer recalls that the conversation between Pashinyan and Erdogan was followed by a telephone conversation between Erdogan and Putin. And a few days before that, the Russian President raised the issue of resolving Armenian-Turkish relations in a conversation with Pashinyan.

“The significance of the current Armenian-Turkish work is more correctly viewed as a process that is part of a much more complex and multifaceted game, and not as a work that has one goal – the normalization of relations”, emphasizes Hakob Badalyan.

He believes that a correct assessment of the Armenian-Turkish process will give Armenia the opportunity “not to fall into illusions and not have high expectations, and also prevent the risk of becoming a bargaining chip.”