Against the background of the aggravation on the line of contact between Azerbaijan and Artsakh it is very important to monitor the statements and actions of external forces, such as those of the US and Britain.
On Monday, starting from 09:00 a.m., in some parts of the northern and north-western border zone of the Republic of Artsakh Azerbaijani units made provocative attempts to cross the line of contact, which were interrupted by the Defense Army forces.
As a result of the provocations by the Azerbaijani units a serviceman of the Army of Artsakh Albert Bakhshyan was wounded.
Detailed information about the incident was provided to the command of Russian peacekeeping forces.
The day before, British Ambassador to Azerbaijan James Sharp visited the Baku-controlled territories around Nagorno-Karabakh and then wrote the following on his Twitter page: "We continue to work together to bring peace to the region. The UK and Azerbaijan are working together to increase cooperation and reduce risk. The amount of support we provide for demining in this region has already exceeded one million pounds sterling."
And after the stabilization of the situation on the line of contact it was reported about the telephone conversation of the US Under Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfrid with the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers the day before. Today, however, U.S. embassies again commented on the contents of the telephone conversation.
" US Undersecretary of State Donfried had a telephone conversation yesterday with Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Bayramov. They discussed the historic opportunity presented to Armenia and Azerbaijan to bring peace to the region. The Undersecretary of State reiterated the US offer to help open up regional transportation and communication routes. She urged the sides to ease border tensions and encourage continued dialogue," the US Embassy in Yerevan said in a statement. The US Embassy in Baku disseminated a similar message.
"Based on all this, it becomes obvious that the main problem is not in Artsakh, but in Syunik. All the statements boil down to unblocking these routes, especially as Armenia did not refuse to provide a road from Nakhijevan (in fact, from Turkey) to Azerbaijan and further to Central Asia," political analyst Stepan Danielyan told NEWS.am.
The expert believes that foreign powers want territory not under Armenia's control, and, more precisely, they want to occupy a part of Armenia.
Iran's statements that it will not allow closing the border with Armenia are interesting in this context. It is no coincidence that these statements were made. That is why, according to Danielyan, the problem is in Syunik, while Artsakh is a territory where provocations are carried out in order to force Armenia to open a corridor.
All this fits into the West's scenario, which is to create a Turkic world against Iran and Russia.
"The West, speaking about unblocking communications, definitely did not mean the direction between Russia and Iran (North-South), but the direction between Nakhijevan and Azerbaijan. This is exactly the fight being waged.
Everything is aimed at pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus region and launching the Turkic world project, which has geopolitical significance. Turkey has strengthened in Azerbaijan and is now strengthening in Central Asia, but this must materialize into open communication. In the case of Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus and the strengthening of the West in Azerbaijan, the eyes will be cast inside Russia, on the Turkic-speaking population. Turkey and Azerbaijan are already engaged in serious information work in this direction. Azerbaijan is obviously taking other steps against Russia, including in the form of arms deliveries to the Ukrainian side. Aliyev, in fact, has adopted Erdogan's tactics and is playing on the edge of the possible, aggravating the situation to achieve his goals," the expert noted.
The aggravation of the situation on the eve of the meeting between Putin and Erdogan is related to the desire to put on the table the issue of possible concessions on the part of Russia in the issue of the so-called "Zangezur corridor".
Danielyan reminded that Iran considers this "red line" and is ready for military action if necessary. Under these conditions, the West's constant statements provoke a war against Iran and Russia. "And hostilities will be fought on our territory. That is, aggression against Armenia is encouraged under the sauce of 'peace,'" he said.
The political analyst said that Britain has invested over $100bn into Azerbaijan and opened over 1000 offices, which are also engaged in intelligence activities. There may be such offices in Armenia, too.
"In addition, serious Israeli centers are being created, which are engaged in intelligence activities in Iran. According to some information the Azerbaijanis are preparing an uprising in the north of Iran and the large-scale detentions by the Iranian authorities are connected with this.
Iran realizes that all this is directed against it, and if it yields in the South Caucasus and Turkey strengthens there, it will become a serious threat to it.
The situation is complex and unpredictable. There are serious forces that want a much more serious war than in Ukraine, which will involve Russia, Turkey, Iran, possibly Israel and the leading Western countries," the expert said.