Category: 2020

By Mark Dovich

Two recently-published reports from international research centers put a spotlight on ongoing processes of militarization in Armenia and the broader South Caucasus region. Most recently, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its annual Trends in International Arms Transfers report, which shows that Armenia’s imports of weapons and ammunition in the period 2015-2019 increased by a dramatic 415 percent as compared with the previous five-year period, 2010-2014. In the past five years, Russia served as Armenia’s main arms supplier, providing Armenia with an extraordinary 94 percent of its arms.

The SIPRI report shows that Azerbaijan’s arms imports in the same period were more than three times greater than Armenia’s, a stark reminder of the significant asymmetries in spending capacities between the two countries. According to the report, Israel and Russia provided 60 and 31 percent, respectively, of Azerbaijan’s arms imports in the past five years. Interestingly, these figures were essentially flipped just ten years ago: in the period 2010-2014, Russia supplied Azerbaijan 69 percent of its arms, and Israel supplied 22 percent.

The report also notes that both Armenia and Azerbaijan began to work more actively to expand their military capabilities, particularly in missile technologies, following the April 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes.

Several weeks earlier, the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) published its annual Global Militarization Index, which compares countries’ military expenditures with their gross domestic products and levels of healthcare spending. The BICC report ranks Armenia as the third-most militarized country in the world and Azerbaijan tenth. Two of Armenia’s other neighbors, Iran and Turkey, also placed relatively highly, in the top 25. Meanwhile, Georgia was ranked 49 out of the more than 150 countries surveyed.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the South Caucasus region has faced a set of protracted territorial conflicts, namely between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and between Georgia and Russia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These conflicts continue to threaten stability and hinder development in the region.

Read more: In Significant Deepening of Relations, Armenia Purchases Indian Radar Systems

Photo credit: Photolur

By Syuzanna Petrosyan

As dozens of research groups around the world race to create the first vaccine for COVID-19, in late February, Moderna, a Massachusetts-based biotechnology company, announced that it had shipped the first batch of its clinic-bound vaccine, called mRNA-1273, to the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for use in a planned Phase I study.

The vaccine will be tested on 45 healthy patients at the Kaiser Permanente Health Research Institute in Seattle, Washington. 

Moderna’s researchers were the first to create trial-ready vaccines using mRNA technology. The company uses messenger RNA (mRNA), a form of genetic material, to deliver instructions to a person’s cells. From this information, cells make requisite antibodies to protect against viruses. Alternatively, the instructions can also be utilized to instruct cells to produce proteins that are missing in particular diseases. 

To understand the work behind Moderna’s early success, CivilNet spoke with the company’s co-founder and chairman Dr. Noubar Afeyan, a member of the MIT Board of Trustees, and a biotech entrepreneur. Afeyan is a philanthropist, most recently as a co-founder of the Aurora Prize for Awakening Humanity.

Syuzanna Petrosyan: In the case that testing is successful, what is a realistic timeline for approval and availability of the vaccine? And, in times of crises such as this, are procedures accelerated? 

Noubar Afeyan: It’s true that the speed of entry to the clinic has been without precedent. There is a lot of uncertainty around what happens after this. We are within days of testing the samples on healthy volunteers. This first phase is purely looking at whether it is safe on healthy people, then it will be tested on a larger group, which will be the phase 2 trial. This will take a few months. There you try different variables, particularly to see what’s the most effective dose that creates a strong immune response. It’s only in a phase 3 trial that you test on many thousands of people. And there are two main reasons to test on thousands of people. One is to make sure it’s safe very broadly and not just for 10, 20 people. The second reason is because you need a certain amount of people in an effected zone to ensure that at least some of them could come into contact with the virus so that you are able to see the treatment effect. In other words, if 10% of the population had been exposed, then you would do a smaller trial. But because the numbers are still pretty small as a percentage of population, you have to test on a large number of people. 

Timing is hard to say. The national authorities in the U.S. that we are collaborating with, like Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, say that they take 12-18 months. In emergency situations you have to think about what can be done particularly for vulnerable populations, such as healthcare workers or certain populations that have other health complications that make them susceptible to getting a bad version of the virus. In times like these, people want to try everything and anything, but there is a real danger that not only could there be unknown safety effects but also it really does jeopardize the underlying therapeutic methodology which nobody wants to fail by rushing. 

SP: Moderna created the vaccine just 42 days after receiving the genetic sequence of the COVID_19 virus. What were those 42 days like behind the scenes? 

NA: The team at Moderna, which has large scientific and manufacturing departments, worked incredible hours and showed a lot of devotion to move very quickly. The good news for us was that our team had been collaborating with the National Institute of Health team on other coronavirus vaccines. For example, we had been working with them on the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) vaccine using the same mRNA technology. So we didn’t start from scratch, we had the relationships, and this is the reason we were able to move very quickly. 

The other interesting thing is that Moderna is a company that’s working on many different drugs and vaccines. And as such, one of the things we have been developing for many years is what’s called a cancer vaccine. It involves taking a sample from a tumor and identifying things in the tumor that might be immunogenic, which means that the immune system of the patient, if they saw enough of it, could mount an immune response and go kill the cancer. We are not the only ones working on this, this is a whole field called therapeutic vaccines. The reason I bring it up is because we’ve been working on this personalized cancer vaccine (PCV) program at Moderna. PCV requires a very rapid methodology that goes from a patient tumor sequence, to identifying antigens, making them very quickly, and putting them in a vial and shipping them to try it on that same patient. That workflow is identical to the workflow we have to use for COVID-19.  

SP: Did any of the drug development take place in countries other than the US? Other companies seem to be collaborating with the Chinese on this.

NA: Moderna’s work is done locally in Cambridge and Boston. Of course, we collaborate with people around the world but actual work is done here. 

SP: Considering that many of Moderna’s current vaccine candidates are still in Phase 1 and Phase 2 testing, have there been discussions regarding scaling up production to meet demand in the event a COVID-19 vaccine is approved?

NA: Yes. The part and parcel of advancing this vaccine will be to add manufacturing capacity. We already have a dedicated manufacturing facility in Norwood, MA. It’s an automated manufacturing facility for this kind of product, but as you said that facility was dedicated to many other mRNA-based products. So, as part of scaling up the capacity, we will have to add new manufacturing capability in the coming weeks and months. 

SP: Despite its early success, the company, Moderna hasn’t been without criticism. These include secretive data, roadblocks due to the loss of good talent. How do you respond to critics and, as chairman, how do you balance the company’s day-to-day management issues with its overarching goal to provide treatments to historically overlooked diseases? 

NA: In the first three years of the company’s nine-year history we were quite secretive and not because we wanted to be but because we didn’t know what we were going to end up with. We didn’t know what was going to work and what wasn’t. There is an interesting misconception among the media that covers the frontiers of science, which is that they think somehow it’s predictable and validatable, and that you have to be transparent. The reality is that if you are on an exploration, it’s difficult to be able to predict what you are going to find. The underlying issue is always that in the beginning you are constantly trying, failing, until you identify what works. And when it works, you have something to talk about. In the pharmaceutical discovery space, which is where we are, there are many definitions of what works. It can mean, it “works” in the laboratory, or it “works” in animal trials, or it “works” in early clinical trials. And if it fails to fail long enough, that’s ultimately considered a success. Unless and until you go through the journey, it’s a little bit like asking somebody in a marathon for the first time, after the first mile, what makes them think they’ll get to the finish line, what makes them think they’ll be the first. The answer is nothing makes you think that actually. So I would say “guilty as charged” as it relates to our explorations and excavations, and trying new things. 

SP: Aside from the COVID-19 vaccine, is there another potential vaccine in MODERNA’s pipeline that excites you?

NA: The most advanced program is the cytomegalovirus (CMV), which infects some 60% to 70% of the population. In women who are pregnant, it has a very severe birth defect likelihood. We just finished recruiting our phase 2 trial patients, and assuming that goes well, we’ll start phase 3 shortly. That should be a large broadly applicable vaccine. We have also done two trials on pandemic influenza strains. 

SP: When you were working with Dr. Fauci, who heads the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, how was the neutralizing antibody for the vaccine selected? It seems that there were likely multiple targets you could have gone after. How did you select that one?

NA: That was done by their expertise and years of work with other coronaviruses. They are the ones who had the know-how to do that and that’s why our partnership has been extraordinarily helpful. It really is a partnership. It’s not like they had the problem and we had the solution. The world has the problem and we both had parts of the solution, and now we’ll see if a vaccine works. 

If nothing else, the COVID-19 episode is going to dramatically change society’s relationship with the flu. People think that this is getting us ready for some future threat, but we have been living with the threat. The very same behaviors of going into crowded places, having people sneeze and cough on you, that’s how the flu is transmitted, exactly the same way as COVID-19 is being transmitted. And yet, we view the flu as part of living and we view the COVID-19 like some major terrorist activity. Either we are going to have to start working from home because we are afraid of the flu, or we’ll have to come up with other ways to mitigate it.

By Mark Dovich

In early March, Armenia’s Central Bank released a statement confirming that it “is closely monitoring global economic developments” related to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak worldwide. According to the Central Bank, the impact of the outbreak “on both the world economy and the Armenian economy is expected to be short-term”, with the Central Bank preparing measures to “ensure price and financial stability in Armenia” if necessary. The economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Armenian economy is expected on three main dimensions.

First, the Armenian economy is quite sensitive to the global price of copper, which has fallen significantly in recent months, as worldwide demand continues to decline. In turn, the fall in global demand for copper has been attributed primarily to the prospect of a global economic slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak. The current price of copper per metric ton is around 5,700 U.S. dollars, a five-month low, down roughly 600 U.S. dollars since January.

Armenia has considerable deposits of copper, gold, and molybdenum, and the mineral industry represents a major sector of the Armenian economy. Indeed, about 30 percent of Armenia’s total exports are in copper ore, and another roughly 30 percent of the country’s exports are in other ore concentrates, metals, and gems. The primary destinations for Armenian minerals are China, the European Union, and Russia.

Second, Armenia is strongly linked with Russia economically, and so any developments in the Russian economy have meaningful ripple effects in the Armenian economy. Since 2015, Armenia has been a member state of the Eurasian Economic Union, an integrated single market of five post-Soviet states led by Russia. Trade with Russia accounts for about 25 percent of Armenia’s total trade, and Russia is Armenia’s largest market for the export of agricultural and other goods.

Moreover, nearly half of the roughly two billion U.S. dollars in annual remittances sent to Armenia from Armenian migrant workers and Armenian diaspora communities come from Russia. The Armenian economy remains heavily dependent on remittances, which represent roughly 15 percent of the country’s total GDP.

Therefore, the recent collapse of global oil prices, due in part to an excess of oil on the world market as the coronavirus drives a decline in demand for oil, is set to impact the Armenian economy through its adverse effect on the Russian economy, which is, in turn, strongly linked to the petroleum industry.

Third, the decline in international travel due to the coronavirus outbreak is expected to negatively impact Armenia’s tourism industry, which has experienced considerable growth in recent years. Armenia’s suspension of its visa-free regime with China, the closure of its border with Iran, and the deteriorating economic situation in Russia are set to impact the country’s tourism sector, as all three countries are major countries of origin for foreign tourists visiting Armenia. That the closure of the Armenian-Iranian border covers the period of Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, is particularly significant, as thousands of Iranians typically visit Armenia for the holiday.

As of March 9, the coronavirus outbreak has caused more than 110,000 confirmed infections globally, with major hotspots having formed in China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea. Armenia has confirmed just one case so far, and recently-analyzed data from the World Health Organization suggest that Armenia enjoys very high levels of epidemic preparedness relative to other countries in the region.

March 8 marks International Women’s Day. Armenians will celebrate with presents, balloons, flowers, flowers, and flowers again. 

If in many countries that day commemorates women’s rights and gender equality, in Armenia it is a day that celebrates womanhood. 

But did you know that March 8 is officially celebrated in Armenia and in the other countries that were part of the Soviet Union for 99 years?

Let’s focus on how Women’s day was adopted in the soviet times, how the image of the soviet woman changed throughout the years and what symbolizes Women’s day now for Armenia. 

By Emilio Luciano Cricchio

On March 9, a protest march opposing violence against women was held, starting from Gyumri’s Vardanants Square, after a brutal murder and beating took place against two women a few days prior. 

Members of the “Violence Against Women” coalition and a group of activists from Gyumri, Yerevan, Spitak and Talin took part in the protest.

On Friday 6, a man was arrested in Gyumri under suspicion of beating a 13 year-old girl and murdering her 43 year-old mother. 

The 28 year-old man called emergency services eight hours after the beating, by which time the mother was deceased, according to the prosecutor. 

The 13-year old girl was taken to Gyumri Medical Center where she received urgent medical attention. 

The protest was led and attended mostly by women. Moreover, the marchers protested outside the Prosecutor’s Office, as well as the house of the 43-year-old woman, called “Marine,” where the murder took place. 

One of the activists and organizers, Anna Nikoghosyan, stated that the marchers had decided to take their protest to the Prosecutor’s Office to show that they are following the case.

Furthermore, Nikoghosyan said that often prosecutors, judges and other individuals have attempted in the past to justify the murder and not accept the gravity of the issue of femicide. 

The girl has now been transported to the intensive care unit of the Surb Astvatsamayr Medical Center in Yerevan. She is still unconscious but according to the medial establishment’s Facebook page, she is able to speak a few words. Moreover, she is now breathing by herself and the ventilator she was using to breathe has been removed. 

Yesterday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Minister of Health Arsen Torosyan visited the girl, identified as Nazeli Khachatryan, who had received surgery due to her injuries and numerous fractures.

Pashinyan said about the case, “We are saddened by the news, but let’s admit that this girl and her mother were also victims of the opinion that violence against women can be justified.”

Nikoghosyan told CivilNet that the protestors “Are sick and tired of the situation regarding femicide in Armenia.”

“Every month we hear about these cases, where women are killed by spouses, ex-husbands, relatives, or any other male. We will continue to fight to eliminate the culture of violence against women,” said Nikoghosyan. 

By Emilio Luciano Cricchio

In late February, Azerbaijani media reported that the State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan had destroyed significant amounts of products from Armenia.

In accordance with a court ruling, mobile phones, Armenian cognac, foodstuffs, household items, cigarettes and souvenirs were burnt in front of journalists and cameramen, in a landfill near the Azerbaijani city of Sumgayit. 

But how did these products end up in Azerbaijan?

It is believed that many of these items reach Azerbaijan via foreign tourists traveling through the South Caucasus region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Many of these tourists recounted that they would bring Azerbaijani products into Armenia, but would rarely be confronted by Armenian customs officers. 

Recounting his own experience with Azerbaijani authorities confiscating Armenian products, Civilnet reporter Tatul Hakobyan mentioned that during a book presentation he did in Tbilisi in 2014, an Azerbaijani journalist bought one of his books about Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Once the Azerbaijani journalist reached the Georgian-Azerbijani border, the book was marked as “extremist literature” and was confiscated.

Hakobyan said that later when researchers and journalists in Azerbaijan wanted to obtain his books, he would send them to Baku with European or American friends who were traveling to Azerbaijan by plane. 

But were Azerbajiani authorities always so strict about preventing Armenian products entering Azerbaijan?

Hakobyan remarked that before 2003, when Ilham Aliyev took over the presidency after the death of his father, President Heydar Aliyev, Armenian-made products were commonly transported into Azerbaijan by merchants and openly sold in a Georgian-Armenian market in the Azerbaijani-majority town of Sadakhlo, just across from the Armenian border. 

Furthermore, prior to 2003, carrots and cabbage from Sevan or Spitak were also sold in Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijani tea was sold in Stepanakert until the 2000s. To this day, pomegranates from the Azerbaijani city of Ganja are in high demand in Armenia. 

Transcaucasian Tourists

During a recent presentation on the history and conflict of Karabakh, Hakobyan was asked by representatives from tour agencies how they should respond to foreign tourists who are on Transcaucasian tours and want to buy Armenian products? Should tour guides warn tourists that there is a likelihood that Armenian cognac or souvenirs may be confiscated or destroyed once they cross into Azerbaijan?

Many of these tour guides noted that they wanted to encourage tourists to buy Armenian-made products, but weren’t sure whether they should inform tourists that these products may well not make it out of Azerbaijan. 

The tour guides informed Hakobyan that it was foreign tourists who were bringing Armenian products into Azerbaijan. 

The tour guides also implored Hakobyan to write about this issue so that Armenian authorities could be informed of this dilemma and seek a possible solution. 

Hakobyan remarked that this raises the issue of anti-Armenian sentiments and how far fetched a peaceful reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is, when not even Armenian products can enter Azerbaijan, in the custody of tourists, without being confiscated or destroyed. 

Armenian border guards, in turn, do not confiscate luggages of foreign tourists arriving in Armenia from Azerbaijan and do not confiscate Azerbaijani goods or souvenirs.

Hakobyan suggested that it is time to start real attempts at Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation and that interfering with trade and tourism is a futile exercise.