The Armenian National Assembly adopted today the bill on making changes in the 2020 state budget law.
Bright Armenia faction voted against the bill.
The bill envisages 150 billion AMD assistance package to combat the risks from restrictions applied to avoid spread of coronavirus and the ones coming from outside. The application of the package will result in decline of the real GDP by 2%.
It has been assessed that in 2020 the tax incomes will reduce by 169,1 billion AMD as a result the level of expenses will remain unchanged. By engaging the 150 billion AMD economy assistance packages the deficit of the state budget will grow reaching 5% in the GDP and the need of additional funding of the budget will make over 260 billion AMD.
Restrictions soon to be lifted
The commandant stated that the low intensity of the spread of the virus means that “some restrictions can already be lifted.” In particular, this refers to the likelihood that restrictions on the service sector will be lifted starting May 4. Hairdressers will be permitted to go back to work in compliance with certain safety requirements.
Soon after that, as Tigran Avinyan noted, cafes with open-air patio sections will be able to resume operations, followed by indoor food establishments.
Within the next 10 days, many businesses and organizations will return to work.
As for public transport, the commandant is going to return to this issue only in mid-May, since epidemiologists say that this is where the risk of spreading infection is highest.
Easing restrictions
This announcement about further easing of quarantine restrictions comes following three prior announcements and consequent lifting of state of emergency restrictions in Armenia.
On April 14, restrictions on construction work and the processing industry were lifted. On April 23, even more businesses were given the opportunity to work, namely printing, stone processing, metal fabrication and machine repair, as well as service centers for mobile and internet operators. On April 28, restrictions on the movement of citizens were partially lifted.
While before, it was only possible to leave the house in case of emergency, now citizens are able to go for walks and ride bikes, although they must not travel more than a kilometer away from the house. Previously, family members were only permitted to leave the house together when accompanying an elderly person in need of support. Now they are able to go out for strolls in pairs.
What to expect from the commandant’s office
The commandant says that the fight against coronavirus will be a long process. In this regard, he urges people to continue adhering to social distance and hygiene recommendations, and to continue wearing masks and gloves in certain situations:
“This will lead to overall behavioral changes in society, which, yes, will become the new norms we adhere to during difficult times. I am certain that we will learn many lessons during this process.”
As for the economy, the Deputy Prime Minister says that Armenia is not the only country expected to face problems. Tourism is suffering losses, and the sector on the whole considering the possibility of modifying the current system. The commandant believes that “this is something the public administration system should also start thinking about.”
Online services
The state of emergency created urgent problems and forced the government to make several quick reforms. In particular, there has been a reform in the field of online services.
More specifically, the government has developed more than a dozen anti-crisis programs in which citizens can receive financial support from the state. And now people are able to check whether they have the right to use government aid without leaving their homes or standing in line at government buildings. To do so, just go to ssa.am and enter your data.
“Further development of digital services is on our list of priorities,” said Tigran Avinyan.
The government working in conjunction with scientists
This situation has also strengthened relations between the government and scientists.
“The scientific community has helped us quite a bit in modeling the spread of infection, and we made informed decisions based on the models and conclusions made by Armenian scientists,” said the commandant.
The Institute of Molecular Biology is starting to produce diagnostic tests using raw materials purchased by the state. In the near future, Armenia is expected to begin producing ventilators as well.
“The Ministry of High-Tech Industry has formed a proposal which we are using as a framework to allocate state funds. We expect to have five prototypes of mechanical ventilation devices manufactured in Armenia within the next four months, and then we will begin mass production of 40-60 devices per month,” stated the Deputy Prime Minister.
This, in his opinion, will help local companies enter the international market.
Commentary
Not all experts are impressed by the list of achievements made by the government in the fight against coronavirus.
In particular, political commentator Yervand Bozoyan believes that Armenia is one of the least effective countries in the region in terms of combating the virus and helping the population.
“The same issues that we are seeing all around the world will affect us as well. This virus has flipped the situation in Armenia on its head. Many of us are still not taking the situation in Armenia seriously, but this may happen in the span of 2-3 months,” believes the expert.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance Atom Janjugazyan assures people that not a single citizen affected by the coronavirus epidemic will be ignored. He states that even unregistered workers, who have so far been left out of assistance programs developed by the government, will be helped.
“The government is simply discussing the criteria for assessing a citizen as a victim and the type of support they will receive,” announced the minister said during a parliament meeting.
https://jam-news.net/armenia-coronavirus-lift-quarantine-measures/
At the same time, the commandant warns:
“We are a little cautious with our predictions. And if we see a strong outbreak, we can go back to stringent restrictions…Overall, we bought the time we needed to prepare the healthcare system and make it so that we are able to treat several thousand infected people simultaneously.”
Re-opening Armenia during the COVID-19 crisis.
BY RAFFY ARDHALDJIAN
As of the printing of this post, according to the Ministry of Health, 59 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Armenia, bringing the total number of cases to 1867, of which 971 are active and the total number of recoveries to 659. The number of deaths in the country stands at 30.
While a national emergency has been declared in Armenia, it is unclear to me what the Government of Armenia is thinking in terms of how to gradually reopen its economy, as a number of restrictions on movement and economic activity are being considered. As new cases keep getting registered every day, it is unclear to me if undetected community transmissions are continuing to occur in the landlocked country.
The point of the recent lock down was to accept short term economic pain, with the aim of flattening the Covid-19 curve. Ideally, these restrictions should ease once the country brings its infection rate down, and prepare itself (through methods of testing, contact tracing etc) to stop future virus outbreaks.
Abruptly abandoning social distancing in the middle of this epidemic feels risky especially since Armenia ( like many other countries) seemed unprepared for battling the pandemic. Nor do I feel that we can just “police our way” through punitive responses with citizens that don’t respect social distancing guidelines.
A national discourse in Armenia around Covid-19 seems to be missing. This discourse should not only be constrained between “saving lives or saving the economy” as it is being carried in many developed countries. At the moment (and based on the experience of other countries) I don’t feel that Armenia really knows the scope of its total cases, and the full impact of the pandemic in the foreseeable months.
Like every country, Armenia is a unique case and choices on how to proceed require deeper considerations. Some of the unanswered questions in my mind and which seem to be missing from a national discourse today include but are not limited to the following immediate issues :
How & when can schools open ? How can the national army remain protected ? How much testing is required and how can it be done ? If Armenia cannot test everyone, is random sampling feasible ? How can the GoA effectively educate its population on Covid-19 issues ? How can the GoA offer resources to citizens that are not complying with stay-at-homes measures because of desperate causes ? How can Armenia leverage digital health to combat Covid-19 ( see the case of Germany) ? How can the GoA deliver masks to its citizens (see the case of Singapore) or deliver food packages to its vulnerable population (see the case in the UK) ? What social safety nets could be put in place to protect the Armenian worker ( see the case of France) ? How will Armenian migrant workers be addressed if/when a global recession raises its ugly head ? and so forth and so on.
Armenia’s economy is its people. When policy experts debate the reopening of Armenia’s economy, I hope that the wind-down of restrictions should be very, very gradual. Otherwise, if things go wrong, outbreaks can begin again.
The Covid-19 pandemic story does not feel will be over anytime soon, as I have a feeling that a lot of surprises still await humanity. Even if the GoA decides to lift restrictions, life will not return to “normal” anytime soon. According to some expert estimates, in the best cases not until mid-2021 when a vaccine is available to the global population and thus Armenia.
Besides waiting for future “donated vaccines”, a national discourse in Armenia can also start addressing radical reforms that are required to forge a better social contract in Armenia in the long term, including wealth redistribution, better public services and safety nets. The big challenge of Covid-19 in the long term, is whether the sense of human solidarity we’ve witnessed everywhere can shape Armenian society after the crisis.
Here, starting the discussion on improving Armenia’s national/local institutions (and building new ones) to fight Covid-19 and also the next pandemic is paramount. I personally recall my humble decade long experience in the late 90s, working with the ministry of health in developing Armenia’s Immunization Program (many of today’s vaccines in Armenia’s immunization program were added during that period). Institution building is hard and long work. Now is the best time to start the important institutional work that addresses the societal vulnerabilities that Covid-19 exposed. Beyond the public health war.
Money should not be an excuse to start addressing some of the issues highlighted above. Tens of millions of funding has been reprogrammed by the EU & the US Congress. Plenty of more supplies & knowledge transfer have also arrived from the Russian Federation, China and other donor organizations. If needed, the Diaspora can also assist in a multitude of ways. What is required now is thoughtful analysis, policy making and wise selections for Armenia.
The Covid-19 virus has exposed vulnerabilities in medical/political systems and deep in the psyche of humankind. I’m convinced that humanity (and Armenians) having endured worse calamities in history, shall survive this one as well. The task ahead however is to manage the crisis while building a better future. One with a more durable economy and society for Armenia and everywhere.
Such radical reforms require a serious national discourse not obstructed by populism that tries to control the national conversation and is unable to learn from others. Recovery and a gradual return to normal will take time but will also require all the collective capabilities of a nation.
Raffy Ardhaldjian is a finance/technology professional and diasporan Armenian political thinker with an engaged history in social entrepreneurship in Armenia since independence through his family foundation, the Ani & Narod Memorial Foundation. He holds graduate degrees from the Fletcher School of law and diplomacy and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.