Why “The Land for Promise” Formula Will Never be Accepted by Armenia & Nagorno Karabakh

Indrastra
May 7 2020

By Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan
Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies, Yerevan, Armenia

Despite the worldwide standstill brought by the COVID–19 pandemic, conflict resolutions remain among the key priorities of the international community. This is true for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict too. Without going deep into history it’s worthy to recall the key milestones of the conflict. The Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region declared its intention to leave Soviet Azerbaijan and join Soviet Armenia in February 1988. In the final days of the Soviet Union, Nagorno Karabakh organized a referendum and declared its independence. Almost immediately Azerbaijan launched a military attack against Nagorno Karabakh seeking to crash the newly established republic. The hostilities came to an end in May 1994 and since then the negotiations have been launched under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group with Russia, the US, and France as Co-chairs. The mediators have put forward several proposals including the so-called “Madrid Document” which was submitted in late 2007. Since then several modifications of that plan have been discussed, including the Kazan document of June 2011 and the “Lavrov Plan” of 2014 and 2016. In their March and December, 2019 statements OSCE Minsk group Co-chairs again reiterated that any solution should be based on those ideas. 

However, the Madrid document and its modified versions are essentially based on the inherently flawed “Land for Promise” formula. They effectively suggest that the Nagorno Karabakh Republic should concede large territories to Azerbaijan only to receive a promise by Azerbaijan and the international community to hold a legally binding _expression_ of the will to fix the legal status of Nagorno Karabakh in indefinite future. This is neither fair nor symmetric deal. Politicians, international relations pundits, and even ordinary citizens understand what does a promise mean in geopolitics, and especially in the current world indulged in great power competition. If both conventional wisdom and complex strategic research indicate anything it is the fact that no state will give land and endanger its security only to receive the promise in return. 

Meanwhile, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov seemed to push forward this idea during April 21, 2020 roundtable discussion with the participants of the Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund in the videoconference format. He stated that since April 2019 negotiations have been underway based on another modification of the Madrid document. According to Lavrov, this new version envisages the land concessions by the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and opening up communications as the first stage of the settlement while other phases will be implemented in an indefinite future. Apparently, Azerbaijan is ready to accept such a solution and has recently amplified its pressure on Armenia and Karabakh. On May 2, 2020, the Azerbaijani Defense minister has stated that the possibility of renewed hostilities has increased dramatically, and this statement may be described as a vaguely veiled threat towards Armenia. 

However, it should be emphasized that pressure over Armenia and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic will never force the majority of society to accept this “unfair and asymmetric deal”. The Co-chair countries and Azerbaijan should understand that even if any leader signs such an agreement it will have zero effect on the ground. There is a stark difference between grand ceremonies of agreements’ signature in some luxurious European hotels and the de facto withdrawal of troops. Armenia and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic’s defense and intelligence community will never allow endangering the security of the state and population and if it will be left with the only alternative of war, it will prefer the war. In this scenario, the devastating hostilities most probably will not be confined along the Azerbaijan – Nagorno Karabakh Republic borders and will spread over the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Given the Armenia – Russia, and Azerbaijan – Turkey alliances it may create a dangerous possibility of Turkey – Russia (NATO – Russia) military clash. Taking into account the growing US-China tensions and uncertainty over the future transformations of the world order, neither US/EU nor Russia should be interested in such an outcome.

Experts may argue if there are any viable alternatives to this scenario. Many in Armenia and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic including representatives of the political parties and other groups argue that the Karabakh conflict has been already solved and the only task for the Armenian side is to keep the current status quo indefinitely. They believe that after an additional 25 years of negotiations the new generations of Azerbaijanis will simply forget the pre – 1994 status quo and the current situation will be a new normal for them. 

However, we should take into account the fact that Azerbaijan is not ready to accept the current status quo for another 25 years and threaten to change it through the war in case if negotiations fail. Thus, we face a situation when both keeping the status quo and any attempts to force a peace deal based on the flawed “Madrid principles and land for promise” formula may result in the resumption of hostilities.

The only way to avoid devastating war with regional spillover effects is to abandon the unrealistic “land for promise” formula and elaborate a fair and symmetric deal. The Minsk Group Co-chairs should accept the fact that the cornerstone of any such solution should be the immediate determination of the final legal status of the Nagorno Karabakh in parallel with the settlement of other thorny issues such as land swaps and return of IDPs and refugees. Anything else will result in either resumption of hostilities or the prolongation of the status quo.

About the Author:
Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan is Founder and Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies and also, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia since 2011. He was Vice President for Research – Head of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense Research University in Armenia in August 2016 – February 2019. He joined Institute for National Strategic Studies (predecessor of NDRU) in March 2009 as a Research Fellow and was appointed as INSS Deputy Director for research in November 2010. Before this, he was the Foreign Policy Adviser of the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia. Dr. Poghosyan has also served as a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of History of the National Academy of Sciences and was an adjunct professor at Yerevan State University and in the European Regional Educational Academy.

His primary research areas are the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and the Middle East, US – Russian relations and their implications for the region. He is the author of more than 70 Academic papers and OP-EDs in different leading Armenian and international journals. In 2013, Dr. Poghosyan was appointed as a “Distinguished Research Fellow” at the US National Defense University – College of International Security Affairs and also, he is a graduate from the US State Department’s Study of the US Institutes for Scholars 2012 Program on US National Security policymaking. He holds a Ph.D. in History and is a graduate from the 2006 Tavitian Program on International Relations at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.            

Cannabis legalization in Armenia could take years

Born 2 Invest
May 7 2020

Armenians are against the legalization of cannabis for now, although they are happy to use it on weekends. The founder of “Armerika” LLC Ruben Mkrtchyan is in a conflict with the Armenian authorities, after the police destroyed the crops legally planted. Important voices from the Ministry of Health’s Narcology and Addictions said cannabis health benefits are being fattened by one interested party.

By Angelique Moss 

An American investor decided to invest in hemp cultivation in Armenia, in agreement with the authorities. However, just mentioning cannabis plantations caused a storm of indignation in Armenian society. The executive of the republic really didn’t want to lose the support of civil society.

Although the citizens do not want any form of legalization, they are not reluctant to go to neighboring countries where cannabis is already legalized, like Georgia, to get cannabis.

If you want to find out whether cannabis will be legalized in Armenia or not and to read the latest cannabis news, download the Hemp.im mobile app.

$50 million investment and about 10,000 jobs were the figures used by the founder of “Armerika” LLC Ruben Mkrtchyan in a meeting with Armenian journalists. His own Armenian-American company contacted the country’s authorities and offered cooperation: investment in exchange for a license to produce industrial hemp.

This cannabis variety does not contain cannabinoids, does not have narcotic properties, but is very useful in the textile, cosmetic and culinary industries. This is the hemp that Mkrtchyan wanted to grow while promising a considerable amount of money in the form of taxes. However, the state treated “Armerika” in a rude way, first accepting the proposal and then destroying all the crops of this harmless type of hemp.

As Ruben Mkrtchyan said, he obtained the verbal consent of the office of the Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia, Tigran Avinyan, and officially signed a contract with the Armenian police last year to protect the crops. More than $3,200 per month for daily police security and assuming the obligations requested for the plantations.

Seeds were brought in, they were sown, and things went well. However, in August, police from a different department destroyed all the crops. And, according to Mkrtchyan, this whole story cost him about $170,000.

The deputy prime minister’s office said the crops were illegal in Armenia and could not be grown. However, the “Armerika” company published correspondence with Avinyan’s office, the contract with the police, and a series of documents testifying that the business plan was presented in a very intelligible way to all parties concerned. From these documents resulted that the Armenian authorities were aware of what was happening and what they were dealing with.

This issue possibly caught Armerika at the center of a crisis or war of opinion between various parts of the country’s society. Possibly ending the foreign investor’s crops was a lesser blow than the reputation of allowing hemp cultivation. All of this because of the ambivalent attitude of Armenian society towards cannabis.

In Soviet times, industrial hemp was grown on an industrial scale in Armenia and other southern republics, and no one saw any problems in this. In 1936, the Union allocated 680,000 hectares of land to hemp, about 80% of all the hemp plantations in the world at that time. It was such an important crop that it was immortalized in the famous People’s Friendship Fountain in VDNK along with sunflower and wheat.

In Armenia, hemp grows everywhere because of the ideal conditions. Any summer resident, in his breeding season, can see a bush or two of marijuana or hemp in his area. However, most Armenians cannot tell the difference and all varieties are banned.

Many young people consume cannabis regularly and others even grow it “on their own”. At the same time, lawyer Ruzanna Avagimyan, pointed out that attempts to equate it with neighboring Georgia, where cannabis is legal, had strong negative reactions from Armenian society.

However, it is perfectly normal for Armenians to visit the neighboring country to consume cannabis. Avagimyan said that each country’s laws reflect the needs and characteristics of its society, are adapted to it, and it is useless to look for a common denominator among them. In Armenia, adopting the Georgian experience is politically risky, legally unjustified, and in practice completely useless.

Nor is the country in a hurry to legalize cannabis for medical purposes. In fact, important voices from the Ministry of Health’s Narcology and Addictions said cannabis health benefits are being fattened by one interested party. The Armenian medical community, on this issue and for now, is waiting for the opinion of its international colleagues to take a stand.

It is also true that police officials said that cannabis is not a serious problem in Armenia. Nobody assaults young people on the premises. That is because it’s not worth it. The police would have to spend too much time catching private consumers and the fine is too small.

Another issue is cannabis sales. In this regard, the police and judges take the job more seriously.

Last year, the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Ararat Mirzoyan, spoke about the subject in one of his interviews. He pointed out that the total ban is “pharisaism”, and that cannabis legalization would solve many problems.

The way cannabis legalization is seen in Armenia has changed with the change of power in Armenia. Currently, the issue of cannabis has started to be discussed in a public field at the highest levels.

After the scandal with Armerika, Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Avinyan, hinted that at least the issue of industrial hemp could be brought back in the future, and the Ministry of Economy was “studying” this issue. Although, this may be an attempt to persuade the investor to lower the scandal.

The issue was discussed in parliament and had both supporters and opponents. The third political formation in the country, “Brilliant Armenia”, raised the issue in parliament, and outside it, to Armenian informants with some influence to press for legalization of hemp production. It is now included in the Armenian agenda.

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First published in LA MARIHUANA, a third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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Armenia will raise new funds to upgrade nuclear plant

Big News Network
May 7 2020

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenia will raise new funds to upgrade the Nuclear Power Plant in Metsamor, Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures Suren Papikyan said in the parliament on Thursday, May 7.

According to him, authorities are planning to change the format of financing, and no funds from Russia will be attracted.

“Armenia is considering raising new funds right. And we are negotiating with partners to not extend the loan agreement that has expired,” Papikyan explained.

Most of the $270 million loan provided by Russia has already been spent on the modernization of the NPP.

Armenians begin return to normal life

EurasiaNet.org
May 7 2020
Ani Mejlumyan May 7, 2020 
           

Coronavirus infects Armenia-Georgia rivalry

EurasiaNet.org
May 7 2020
Joshua Kucera May 7, 2020

Iran building power stations in Karabakh – outrage on Azerbaijani social media, Baku says project carried out with its consent

JAM News
May 7 2020
07.05.2020
    JAMnews, Baku

Azerbaijani social media users are angry that Iran has begun the construction of two hydroelectric power stations called Khudaferin and Qiz Qalasi across the Araz River.

The fact is that part of the mounts and bridges included in these structures are in the Jabrail region of Azerbaijan, which is now under the control of Armenia as a result of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In Azerbaijan, any contacts of neighboring countries with the unrecognized Karabakh republic are always perceived with indignation. And this time, many were outraged that “Iran is building bridges in the occupied territory of Azerbaijan.” But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs assures that everything is done with the knowledge and consent of the Azerbaijani government.

The most patriotic and nationalistic citizens of Azerbaijan already have a lot of complaints against Iran. In particular, the situation of the Azerbaijani national minority living there and Iran’s relations with Armenia (some believe that these relations are too warm).

Once news about the construction came out, angry publications immediately began to appear on social and other media platforms.

Journalist Mubariz Azerbaijanli notes that Azerbaijan has always supported Iran fraternally, while Iran, in his words, in turn has responded with “black ingratitude.”

“Iran, which verbally recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and itself stealthily supplies oil and electricity to the Armenian separatists through Araz, should not throw at the feet of the Armenians the economic, political, religious and cultural bridges existing between it and Azerbaijan,” he writes.


Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Khalaf Khalafov says that nothing “terrible” is happening, and Iran’s actions do not infringe on the interests of Azerbaijan.

The diplomat says an agreement to continue building hydropower plants and hydroelectric power plants over the Araz River was signed between Iran and Azerbaijan in 2016.

“This agreement is based on the principles of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the two states. The Iranian side perceives part of the fastenings and bridges that fall on the territory of Azerbaijan within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,” Khalafov explains.



Leopard caught on cameras in Armenia’s Tavush for first time in 50 years

Panorama, Armenia
May 7 2020
Society 15:53 07/05/2020 Armenia

The trap cameras installed in the village of Yenokavan of Armenia’s Tavush Province have caught a leopard, WWF Armenia reports.

Earlier on 19 November 2019, a leopard reportedly attacked a Yenokavan resident. A laboratory examination of the animal’s hair taken as a sample from his clothes denied the claims that the villager had been attacked by a leopard. The test was performed in Germany and was said to show 99% accuracy. No leopard was also found during a field research.

Trusting the affected resident, Arman Gabrielyan, who still insisted he had been attacked by a leopard, WWF Armenia specialists continued the field research. As a result, the geography of cameras was expanded. Arman Gabrielyan, the residents of Yenokavan, as well as the Future Resort company provided great support to the research, WWF Armenia said.

The research gave a positive result and the cameras captured a leopard.

Thus, after a 50-year break, the leopard has returned to Tavush. The animal was last spotted in the area in the 1970s. Tavush became the fourth region in Armenia where a leopard lives, the fund said.

“It’s like a real miracle, because the initial laboratory tests left only a 1% chance that the samples belonged to a leopard,” WWF Armenia Director Karen Manvelyan said, adding the research will go on.

 

Fight breaks out in Armenian parliament. Video

JAM News
May 8 2020
 
 
 
08.05.2020
 
A large fight broke out in the Armenian National Assembly on May 8. Moreover, it took place in front of members of the government and the prime minister. The instigators were the leader of the Bright Armenia opposition faction Edmon Marukyan and an MP from the ruling My Step bloc Sasun Mikaelyan.
 
Colleagues, ministers and Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinyan spent several minutes trying to separate the MPs. The speaker of the parliament was forced to call a recess, as the situation still did not calm down after the fight.
 
 
How it happened
 
During a regular session, ruling party MP Babken Tunyan began to speak. He criticized representatives of the Enlightened Armenia opposition faction. After his presentation, Enlightened Armenia leader Edmon Marukyan went to the podium. He tried to respond to the criticism. But during his speech, deputies from the ruling faction began to shout commentary at him from their seats.
 
The situation became tense after Sasun Mikaelyan addressed the speaker, saying “listen, old man,” and threatened to “crush” Marukyan.
 
The opposition leader lost his temper and stepped down from the podium while the ruling party MP stood up to meet him.
 
After the fight, Marukyan returned to the podium and continued his speech:
 
“No matter how hard you beat me, I will speak. Who hit me from behind? Someone crept up and hit me from behind.”
 
“This is a shameful provocation and my biggest failure” – Prime Minister Pashinyan
 
The prime minister has already commented on the incident in parliament.
 
Nikol Pashinyan called Markunyan’s actions a shameful provocation. At the same time, he also emphasized that he condemned the actions of his fellow party members. The prime minister said that the ruling majority, that is, those who support the My Step faction, has no right to respond to such provocations:
 
“They want to provoke us. And every day, Sargsyan’s and Kocharyan’s [Serg Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan are two former Armenian presidents] criminal gangs and the members of parliament who serve them use their power as an instrument of violence. This is the truth of the matter…
 
I blame myself and consider this incident to be my biggest failure since the revolution.”
 
What the opposition says
 
Edmon Marukyan also commented on the fight.
 
He said that the Bright Armenia faction looks forward to a political assessment of the incident.
 
“The fight in the Armenian parliament is an issue concerning the revolution and its leader. I believe that the foundations of democracy, as well as the values proclaimed by the revolution, have been violated. A party leader has never been struck in the back in the hall of the Armenian National Assembly…In the future, we will determine how to adress this issue.”
 
 
 
 
 

Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh ‘vulnerable to COVID-19 pandemic’

OC Media
May 8 2020

8 May 2020

By OC Media
Ambulance in Tskhinvali. Photo: RES
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Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 due to a lack of medical professionals and ‘severely underequipped’, hospitals, a new report from the International Crisis Group claims.

The group, an independent peacebuilding organisation, warned that Abkhazia suffers from weak infrastructure, lacks medical professionals and has an ageing population, with nearly 20% of residents over 60 years of age.

The report, published on Wednesday, said that close to 80% of medical personnel were in a high-risk group, as they were in their sixties or older.

‘If they get sick, the region will lose all its doctors within days’, the report cited a foreign diplomat who regularly travels to Abkhazia.

It suggested that Georgia’s central government should consider granting permission to international organisations or foreign banks to offer aid to Abkhazia to ease the economic pain.

As for the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus in Abkhazia, the ICG said that the authorities were slow to impose social distancing.

‘The COVID-19 crisis coincided with elections for a new de facto president and, here as well, there was little evidence of masks or other preventive measures at campaign rallies or on election day. Not until the vote was over did local authorities introduce a state of emergency’, the report said.

As of 8 March, the authorities in Abkhazia have confirmed three cases of COVID-19; two have recovered and one has died. 

Abkhazian officials introduced a state of emergency on 29 March and a month later extended most of the anti-coronavirus measures in place until 15 May, including a prohibition on sports, cultural, and entertainment events, weddings and other ceremonies, and a ban on tourism and foreigners entering Abkhazia. 

Markets have reopened and will be operating in Abkhazia three days a week.

South Ossetia reported its first case of COVID-19 on 6 May. According to the South Ossetian state-owned news agency RES, a man who had entered the region from Russia on 30 April had tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

Hospitals in South Ossetia are severely underequipped according to the ICG report, with the group reporting that one of the few doctors in the region had refused to work due to lack of basic protective gear at the hospital,

The report partially blamed the situation on the reluctance of the authorities to work with the World Health Organisation and other international organisations.

They said this was because such organisations coordinate their activities with the Georgian government. ‘The de facto leadership sees collaboration with them as undermining their own demand for international recognition of the region’s independent status’, the report says.

The ICG said there was a high risk of COVID-19 spread in South Ossetia and that Russia, which provides a majority of the region’s needs, stopped most exports of medical supplies in early March.  

‘More­over, many of the region’s medical professionals have had no training for years, lacking even the know-how to operate 26 ventilators delivered from Russia.  “We don’t dare to even go for blood tests with the local doctors”, a resident said.’

The organisation suggested South Ossetia cooperate with the World Health Organisation and UN agencies or ‘at a minimum they should communicate with them online or by telephone to provide the information necessary to support local efforts at preventing the spread of the virus and organising medical supply deliveries’.

As of 15 May, the number of confirmed cases has risen to 15. 

In late March, local authorities announced the introduction of a ‘quarantine regime’. They closed the crossing points with Georgia-controlled territory indefinitely on 27 February, following a report of the first confirmed infection in Georgia. 

On 5 April they also ‘fully closed’ the Roki-Nizhny Zaramag crossing with Russia’s North Ossetia, days after North Ossetia confirmed their first two cases.

Although Yerevan has provided COVID-19 test kits, the ICG report said that the laboratory in Nagorno-Karabakh was unable to assess the results, so samples must be taken to Armenia. 

They elaborated that the situation was particularly dire outside of the capital Stepanakert, where they said that even basic equipment and emergency vehicles were outdated and in short supply.

According to the group, local authorities ignored widespread calls from civil society activists and local doctors to postpone the presidential and parliamentary elections on 31 March and runoff on 14 April, and some candidates held large rallies in stadiums and town squares. 

Voting takes place in Nagorno Karabakh. Photo: Tatul Hakobyan/Civilnet.

[Read more: Arayik Harutyunyan wins landslide victory in Nagorno-Karabakh presidential election]

‘Turnout was high, and only a few wore masks or gloves while standing in long, closely packed lines to vote’, the report said. 

The International Committee of the Red Cross is the only international organisation providing support to the region according to the report, and their geographical reach is limited.

‘Because Nagorno-Karabakh is considered Azerbaijani territory under international law, international organisations require Baku’s permission to operate there. Without Azerbaijan’s sanction, no UN agency, including the WHO, has access to the entity’, the report said.

As of 8 May, 10 cases have been confirmed by the authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, six of which have recovered. The President of Nagorno-Karabakh, Bako Sahakyan, announced a state of emergency on 12 April. 

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

Prosperous Armenia party condemns incident in parliament

News.am, Armenia
May 8 2020

18:02, 08.05.2020