Category: 2020

The Jamestown Foundation
Clashes on Azerbaijan-Armenia Border Threaten Regional Transport and
Energy Routes
By Bahruz Babayev
[The article has maps which are not shown below]
On July 12, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire along the
state border in the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan and Armenia’s Tavush
province, resulting in several days of intense cross-border clashes
involving heavy artillery exchanges (Mod.gov.az, July 12). The two
countries have been under a volatile ceasefire since fighting a bloody
war over the Azerbaijani region of Karabakh in the 1990s
(Dailysabah.com, July 13). To this day, Armenia occupies 20 percent of
Azerbaijan’s territory. The last instance of serious fighting between
the two sides occurred in April 2016, when the Azerbaijani military
liberated several formerly occupied strategic positions on the Line of
Contact in Karabakh (Report.az, April 4, 2017). In contrast, the
recent fighting in Tovuz represented the largest cross-border military
engagement since 1994.
Tovuz is a narrow land corridor through which a number of vital
transport and energy export routes link Azerbaijan to European and
other global markets. The territory is notably crossed by the
trans-Eurasian Transportation Corridor East-West. Other critical
infrastructure passing through Tovuz includes the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline, the South Caucasus natural gas pipeline (SCP) and
the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway (Tvreal.az, July 17).
The BTC pipeline delivers Azerbaijani crude oil to Europe (Ona.az,
March 13, 2019). In early 2020, 81 percent of Azerbaijan’s oil exports
were transported via the BTC (Vergiler.az, February 18); and
throughout 2019, the pipeline transported a total of 233.2 million
barrels of oil (Neftegas.ru, January 16). The SCP runs largely in
parallel with the BTC and presently supplies Azerbaijani gas to
Georgia and Turkey. It provides 23 percent—2.7 billion cubic meters
(bcm) of gas in the first quarter of 2020—of Turkish demand. As
Turkey’s largest supplier, Azerbaijan helps the former reduce its
reliance on Russia and Iran (Arabnews.com, May 2; see EDM, July 6).
The SCP additionally provides about 87 percent of Georgia’s natural
gas demand and is the easternmost segment of the Southern Gas Corridor
(SGC), which will annually deliver 10 bcm of gas to Europe starting in
late 2020 (EurActiv, February 13).
The BTK railway connects Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and is a
strategic segment of the so-called “Middle Corridor,” linking China to
Europe. The BTK has an annual capacity of 17 million tons of cargo
(trend.az, April 4, 2019). Furthermore, this railroad has been used by
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and allied forces to transit
supplies to and from Afghanistan (Nato-pfp.mfa.gov.az, accessed July
30). The BTC, the SCP and the BTK all run 15 kilometers of Tovuz city
(the district capital), which was exposed to Armenian shelling.
The vice president for investment and marketing at the State Oil
Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), Elshad Nasirov, alleged
that Armenia’s military provocations were intended to disrupt
Azerbaijani plans to begin supplying gas to Europe in three months. He
stressed that “the entire infrastructure for the supply of
Azerbaijan’s energy resources to Western countries and the global
market is located in this region” (Azerbaycan24.com, July 17). This
charge was echoed by Azerbaijani parliamentarian Ganira Pashaeva, who
asserted that Armenia aimed to target Azerbaijani-Turkish energy and
transport lines (Anadolu Agency, July 17).
The recent cross-border clashes did not directly damage Azerbaijan’s
energy infrastructure, instead destroying 61 households and farms
across several Tovuz district villages (APA, July 23). However, these
pipelines’ close proximity to the areas exposed to shelling illustrate
how vulnerable they are to attacks and shutdowns. Indeed, BP
temporarily took the SCP, BTC and the Baku–Supsa oil pipeline offline
during the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war (Ogj.com, August 12,
2008).
It is also notable that two weeks before the cross-border violence
erupted, Armenia’s former defense minister Lieutenant General
Vagharshak Harutyunyan suggested Yerevan could destroy the entire oil
complex in three major cities of Azerbaijan (Kavkazplus.com, July 3;
Miq.az, July 6). Currently, the conflict appears to have settled down
again. But energy infrastructures would become a likely target if
full-scale military operations begin.
The recent clashes on the Azerbaijan-Armenian border, in Tovuz, could
jeopardize the “energy and transport corridor from the Caspian into
Europe,” according to Brenda Shaffer, a senior advisor for energy at
the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (New.az, July 17). Further
armed conflict in this sensitive corner of Azerbaijan would force Baku
to shut down most of its major oil and gas export pipelines for safety
reasons (RFE/RL, April 5, 2016). And the possibility of energy
pipelines going offline even temporarily would have a number of
economic and political consequences for Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey
and Europe.
Cross-border hostilities would certainly be costly for Azerbaijan. Oil
sale revenues, including transfers from the State Oil Fund, are
planned to account for 57 percent of the Azerbaijani national budget
in 2020 (Marja.az, September 13, 2019). Moreover, energy resources
make up between 85 and 91 percent of its overall income from exports.
So though it is difficult to accurately project the long-term economic
consequences of temporary oil and gas pipeline shutdowns for
Azerbaijan, such an outcome would surely bite into Azerbaijan’s
financial reserves.
As the SCP provides around 90 percent of Georgia’s natural gas demand,
it is also a big concern for Tbilisi, which has a little room for
maneuver in negotiations with Moscow if it suddenly needed to switch
back to relying on Russian energy supplies. Azerbaijan has also been
an important key to Turkey’s efforts to diversify its natural gas
market away from a reliance on Russia, which Ankara does fully trust
as a supplier. Finally, the BTC and SCP carry political importance for
the European Union and the Balkans, as these regional countries seek
to free themselves from Russia’s energy grip.
The sudden armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan quieted
back down since July 17, but the ceasefire looks quite fragile. And
though international experts believe further escalations are unlikely
(Ednews.net, July 17), the Azerbaijani public has clearly lost faith
that a peaceful resolution to the broader conflict with Armenia is
possible following decades of failed diplomacy (Etikxeber.az, July
23). If the precarious ceasefire is once again broken and begins to
spiral out of control, the consequences will include long-term harm to
the strategic interests of not only the immediate region but also
major outside powers.
 

Arab News
ISTANBUL: Turkey’s Council of Higher Education has banned students
studying Kurdish language and literature at Turkish universities from
writing their dissertations in Kurdish.
All dissertations at Kurdish language departments will now have to be
written in Turkish.
The move is a step back from the government’s previous efforts to
provide Kurdish citizens, who make up about a fifth of Turkey’s
population, with an opportunity to receive an education in their
mother tongue. State schools have been offering Kurdish as an elective
language for the past seven years in a country where Turkish is the
only constitutionally recognized language.
Since 2013, Kurdish studies were introduced at universities during the
fragile and short-lived “Kurdish peace process” that aimed to increase
Kurdish cultural and linguistic rights but which ended suddenly in
2015.
Kurdish language departments previously received thousands of
applications from university students who wanted to have their
education in Kurdish but numbers have now dropped dramatically.
The decision will influence four universities in Turkey that are
allowed to open Kurdish language and literature departments: Dicle
University in the southeastern province of Diyarbakir, Mardin Artuklu
University, Bingol University and Mus University.
“The collapse of the peace process has resulted in such efforts to
target Kurdish language whose use has turned into a political leverage
and a means of criminalization in Turkey,” Roj Girasun, the head of
Diyarbakir-based Rawest Research Center, told Arab News. “However,
education in the mother tongue was one of the core campaign topics of
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2013 and in 2014 when he was
reaching out to Kurdish citizens in the southeastern provinces,” he
said.
Girasun wrote his undergraduate thesis in the Kurdish language and on
the topic of Judaism in the Kurdish oral culture at Mardin Artuklu
University. However, he is now obliged to write his master’s thesis in
Turkish, which is not his mother tongue.
“As political tensions escalate domestically and regionally among
Turks and Kurds, the crackdown on the universities is mounting. The
government doesn’t appoint teachers to the Kurdish language
departments of the universities, which naturally discourages citizens
from applying to those universities due to the lack of qualified
academic staff. What we are witnessing is the criminalization of the
Kurdish language,” Girasun said.
Esat Sanli, a doctoral candidate at Dicle University, is another
student who will be affected by the decision.
“The decision will directly target students willing to write history
and culture-focused dissertations. On the other hand, it will also
have international repercussions. Any dissertation that is written in
Kurdish will be taken as a lack of capacity of the student in
linguistic skills,” Sanli told Arab News.
According to Sanli, the decision will also be a disincentive for
Kurdish students to continue their academic career in the Kurdish
language.
“There was a significant interest in choosing these Kurdish
departments simply for the opportunity to write academic dissertations
in their mother tongue. But now these universities risk losing their
appeal in the eyes of the students,” he said.
A recent study showed that only 18 percent of the 600 young Kurds
surveyed — aged between 18 and 30 — could speak, read and write in
Kurdish. The categorization of Kurdish language as an “unknown
language” by the judicial system is another marginalization of the
language, sometimes even criticized by government officials.
Max Hoffman, a Turkey analyst from the Washington-based Center for
American Progress, said that the Kurdish language was another front in
Turkey’s culture war.
“Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost most
of their Kurdish support with the resumption of the PKK conflict and
the accompanying harsh government repression. Since July 2015, they
have only intensified the crackdown, including removing duly elected
mayors from the HDP,” he told Arab News.
According to Hoffman, just as Erdogan drove the Hagia Sophia
controversy in the hope that secular Turkey and the West would react —
allowing him to pose as the defender of the faithful — he is trying to
use Kurdish language and culture as another wedge to force the
opposition to either defend Kurdish cultural rights, driving away
nationalist voters, or abandon Kurdish cultural rights, driving away
Kurdish voters.
“This move should be seen as a sign of political concern about his
right-wing, as well as an attempt by the AKP to cause tension in the
informal opposition electoral alliance,” he said.
 

                                        Friday, 
Lawmaker Denounced For Leaving Tsarukian’s Party
        • Anush Mkrtchian
Armenia -- Parliament deputy Sergey Bagratian speaks to RFE/RL, Yerevan, January 
26, 2020.
Senior representatives of the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK) condemned a fellow 
parliamentarian on Friday for leaving the country’s largest parliamentary 
opposition force led by businessman Gagik Tsarukian.
The lawmaker, Sergey Bagratian, formally notified parliament speaker Ararat 
Mirzoyan about his decision to quit the BHK in a letter revealed on July 23. He 
gave no reason for the move.
BHK representatives were careful not to comment on it until now, saying that 
Bagratian has not answered their phone calls or communicated with them otherwise 
for more than a month.
Bagratian broke his silence on Friday with a Facebook post saying that he has 
had unspecified “significant differences” with the BHK leadership “for quite a 
while.” “I have repeatedly presented my objections to key [BHK] statements,” he 
claimed.
Senior members of Tsarukian’s party were quick to hit back at him. Arman 
Abovian, the number two figure in the BHK’s parliamentary group, insisted that 
Bagratian has never openly disagreed with the party’s decisions. Abovian urged 
him to resign from the Armenian parliament altogether.
Tsarukian’s spokeswoman, Iveta Tonoyan, strongly condemned Bagratian’s 
statement, saying that the 57-year-old is “trampling moral principles underfoot” 
for the sake of preserving his parliament seat.
Tonoyan also added her voiced to media speculation that Bagratian defected from 
the BHK to avoid prosecution on charges of financial abuses allegedly committed 
in Armenia’s southeastern Vayots Dzor when it was governed by him from 
2010-2012. She claimed that Tsarukian has repeatedly urged Bagratian to 
compensate the state for the “damage” caused by him but that he has refused to 
do that. Tonoyan did not give further details.
Bagratian denied these allegations when he spoke with RFE/RL’s Armenian service 
by phone. He insisted that he has only been questioned by law-enforcement 
officials as a witness in a criminal case opened recently.
Armenia -- Gagik Tsarukian and other deputies from his Prosperous Armenia Party 
attend a parliament session in Yerevan, July 9, 2019.
Bagratian stopped making public statements shortly after the parliament allowed 
law-enforcement authorities on June 15 to arrest and prosecute Tsarukian on vote 
buying charges which the BHK leader rejects as politically motivated.
The BHK claims that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian ordered the National Security 
Service (NSS) to “fabricate” the charges in response to Tsarukian’s June 5 calls 
for the Armenian government’s resignation. It also says that the NSS and police 
have rounded up scores of BHK activists in a bid to ratchet up the pressure on 
Tsarukian. Pashinian and his allies deny a politically motivated crackdown on 
the party.
Bagratian’s exit reduced to 24 the number of parliament seats held by the BHK. 
The party continues to have the second largest group in the 132-member National 
Assembly controlled by Pashinian’s My Step bloc.
Former Armenian Security Chief Claims Political Persecution
        • Anush Mkrtchian
Armenia -- Former National Security Service Director Artur Vanetsian speaks to 
journalists outside the NSS headquarters in Yerevan, .
Artur Vanetsian, the former National Security Service (NSS) director leading an 
opposition party, accused the Armenian authorities of trying to “silence” him 
after being questioned on Friday in an investigation launched by the NSS.
Vanetsian was summoned to the NSS to explain a personnel decision which he made 
while running Armenia’s most powerful security agency in 2018.
An NSS spokesman, Artur Gevorgian, said he is suspected of hiring a retired 
51-year-old officer and giving him a senior NSS position in breach of an 
Armenian law. He said the law stipulates that only individuals aged 50 or 
younger can be appointed to such posts. Vanetsian’s decision may have therefore 
amounted to an abuse of power, Gevorgian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.
Vanetsian flatly denied breaking the law when he spoke to journalists after 
spending about 30 minutes inside the NSS headquarters in Yerevan. He said he 
refused to give his former subordinates any explanations.
“It’s yet another fabricated and politically motivated case,” claimed Vanetsian. 
“For the past eight months the authorities have doing everything to prosecute me 
with the aim of stopping my political activities.”
“They probably have trouble reading and understanding the law,” he said. “I mean 
not NSS investigators but Armenia’s political leadership and the current NSS 
director.”
Vanetsian’s lawyer, Lusine Sahakian, insisted, for her part, that even if the 
alleged violation occurred it did not constitute a criminal offense.
Vanetsian was appointed as head of the NSS following the 2018 “Velvet 
Revolution” and quickly became an influential member of Prime Minister Nikol 
Pashinian’s entourage. He resigned last September after falling out with 
Pashinian for still unclear reasons. The 40-year-old has since repeatedly 
accused Pashinian of incompetence and misrule, prompting angry responses from 
Pashinian and his political allies.
Hrachya Hakobian, a pro-government parliamentarian and Pashinian’s 
brother-in-law, denied any political persecution of Vanetsian. “Our public knows 
who and how has been subjected to political persecution in the past,” he said.
Vanetsian called for the prime minister’s resignation shortly before setting up 
an opposition party, called Hayrenik (Fatherland), in February.
In late June, Hayrenik and two other opposition parties, Prosperous Armenia 
(BHK) and Dashnaktsutyun, pledged to work together in challenging the government 
and “restoring the constitutional order.” The move followed criminal charges 
brought against BHK leader Gagik Tsarukian. The latter rejects them as 
politically motivated.
Vanetsian predicted on Friday that “very active political processes,” possibly 
including anti-government protests, will unfold in Armenia soon.
“The authorities have failed in all spheres,” he charged. “We are facing a 
health crisis, an economic crisis and other problems. Instead of getting things 
done and solving the problems, the authorities are busy trying to silence their 
political opponents.”
“After the coronavirus recedes and the state of emergency is lifted, we will see 
what kind of protests there will be, who will take part in them and how they 
will be led,” countered Hakobian.
Armenian Defense Chief Visits Karabakh
Nagorno-Karabakh -- Armenian Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan (R) visits a 
Karabakh Armenian military base, .
Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan dismissed Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s 
latest warnings to Armenia as he visited Nagorno-Karabakh and inspected military 
facilities there on Friday.
According to the Armenian Defense Ministry, during the two-day visit Tonoyan 
toured military bases of Karabakh’s Armenian-backed Defense Army and paid 
“special attention” to new weapons delivered to it recently.
A ministry statement said Tonoyan also discussed with the Defense Army 
commander, Major-General Jalal Harutiunian, and other local officers “current 
and possible regional developments.”
The visit came two weeks after unusually heavy fighting that broke out at a 
section of Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan located hundreds of kilometers west 
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani “line of contact” around Karabakh. The situation 
along the Karabakh frontlines has remained relatively calm in recent weeks.
Aliyev on Thursday again claimed that his troops deal a “crushing blow” to the 
Armenians during the border clashes which left at least 12 Azerbaijani 
servicemen, including a general, and five Armenian soldiers dead. “The Armenian 
armed forces must leave our lands before it’s too late,” he said.
Tonoyan scoffed at this warning in video remarks circulated by his press office. 
“As defense minister, I would just like to understand ‘before it’s too late’ 
means when,” he said.
Tonoyan also shrugged off Azerbaijani military officials’ fresh statements to 
the effect that they are ready to carry out Aliyev’s order to restart war at any 
moment.
“First of all, it’s not that we don’t wait for such orders,” he said. “Secondly, 
the hostilities in Tavush [province bordering Azerbaijan] were vivid proof of 
the fact that although the enemy intensively used state-of-the-art equipment it 
did not achieve success and suffered many losses instead.”
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has also repeatedly said that Baku cannot force 
the Armenian side to make unilateral concessions with threats to resolve the 
Karabakh conflict by force.
Armenia -- Armenian soldiers deploy a Tochka-U ballistic missile system, July 
31, 2020.
Earlier on Friday, the Defense Ministry in Yerevan announced that frontline and 
other units of the Armenian army have been put on high alert as part of a 
“sudden check” of their combat readiness ordered by the chief of the army’s 
General Staff, Lieutenant-General Onik Gasparian. The ministry released several 
photographs of ballistic missile and long-range artillery systems deployed in 
various locations.
The check came amid joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises which began in 
various parts of Azerbaijan on Wednesday. The Armenian military said earlier 
this week that it will be closely monitoring the exercises widely linked to the 
recent hostilities on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
Turkey has blamed Armenia for the fighting and vowed boost military aid to 
Azerbaijan. Yerevan has responded by accusing the Turkish government of trying 
to destabilize the region.
Aliyev reportedly thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Ankara’s 
“resolute support” to Baku during a phone conversation on Friday.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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