Monday, August 10, 2020
Armenian PM Congratulates Belarus’s Lukashenka On Reelection
August 10, 2020
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian (R) meeting with Belarus President
Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Yerevan, September 30, 2019
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian sent a congratulatory message to Belarus
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on his re-election in a ballot the results of
which are disputed by his opposition challenger.
“I am confident that through joint efforts we will continue to strengthen the
friendship between our peoples, to expand mutually beneficial cooperation
between our countries both bilaterally and within the framework of international
organizations and integration associations. On my part I am ready to make every
effort to fully realize the potential of relations between our peoples and
countries,” Pashinian said in his message as quoted by his press office.
Armenian President Armen Sarkissian also congratulated Lukashenka, wishing him
“good health, success and all the best” and “the friendly people of Belarus –
peace, stability and prosperity.”
Belarus’s Central Election Commission said preliminary official results from the
August 9 presidential election show incumbent President Lukashenka winning a
landslide victory with more than 80 percent of the vote, compared to less than
10 percent for his main rival, Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Tsikhanouskaya, who drew tens of thousands of people to her campaign rallies,
refused to recognize the preliminary official results announced on Monday.
Protesters poured into the streets of Belarus's capital, Minsk, after the
balloting ended, many of them facing off against riot police.
The ballot in Belarus was followed by a night of violent clashes between police
and thousands of protesters who say exit polls and official results from the
election commission were rigged.
A human rights group in Minsk said that one protester was killed in the clashes,
but Belarus’s Interior Ministry denied that.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on August 10 condemned the
violence in Belarus, calling on the Belarusian government to “accurately” count
and publish the poll’s results.
Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and Collective
Security Treaty Organization both of which also include Belarus.
Other leaders of the alliances, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Kazakhstan’s President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, have also sent congratulatory
telegrams to Lukashenka on his re-election.
Belarus’s autocratic leader who turns 66 later this month has occupied the
presidential post since 1994.
Authorities See Continuing ‘Positive Trend’ In Coronavirus Situation In Armenia
August 10, 2020
• Robert Zargarian
A medical worker takes notes at the Surb Grigor Lusarovich Medical Center in
Yerevan, Armenia's largest hospital treating coronavirus patients, June 5, 2020.
The number of active coronavirus cases in Armenia continued to decrease over the
weekend as the fatality rate remained relatively high, according to official
statistics.
The figures reported by the Ministry of Health show that for the first time
since early June the number of active coronavirus cases in Armenia has dropped
below 7,000. Eleven more patients died from COVID-19 over the weekend, bringing
the total number of deaths to 796.
According to the ministry, since the start of the epidemic in March 228 other
patients infected with the virus died from other pre-existing diseases.
The daily number of officially registered fatalities averaged approximately 15
from July 6 through July 24 after which a downward trend began.
As of August 10, the total number of coronavirus cases identified in Armenia has
reached 40,433. In the past weeks and days the number of daily reported cases
decreased more than twice as compared to what appears to be the peak of the
epidemic in early July when over 700 cases were identified on a daily basis.
Ministry spokesperson Alina Nikoghosian sees a continuing positive trend in the
rate of infections. “The numbers themselves show a significant decrease. But,
like we did it before, we keep repeating that vigilance must not be weakened,
because if we relax, the numbers will start growing again,” she said.
The Armenian government ascribes the recent improvement in the coronavirus
situation to the wearing of face masks in all public places that was made
mandatory in Armenia in early June and other enforced and popularized measures
like social distancing and regular washing of hands.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and other officials have urged Armenians to
continue to follow the basic anti-epidemic rules, insisting that they can help
cope with the epidemic.
Despite the improving trend the Pashinian government intends to extend the
coronavirus-related state of emergency that ends on August 12 for another month.
Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinian said last week that the government will at
the same time fully or partly lift its ban on public gatherings and make it
easier for foreign nationals to enter the country. He also reaffirmed plans to
reopen all schools and universities in time for the start of the new academic
year in September.
Health Minister Arsen Torosian, meanwhile, said at a government session on
August 6 that his ministry planned more targeted and “pro-active” testing among
people working in government agencies, supermarkets, factories, banks or other
businesses as well as patients of various medical and elderly care institutions.
Critics have for months urged authorities to significantly expand COVID-19
testing, saying that it is vital for tackling the epidemic.
‘Serious Probe’ Demanded After Ex-Police Chief Obstructs Work Of RFE/RL Reporters
August 10, 2020
Former Chief of Police Vladimir Gasparian (file photo)
Several leading media organizations in Armenia have demanded that the country’s
law-enforcement agencies conduct a “serious probe” into an incident in which
former Chief of Police Vladimir Gasparian obstructed the professional activities
of an RFE/RL Armenian Service (Azatutyun) crew working on an environmental story
near Lake Sevan over the weekend.
In a joint statement disseminated on Monday the Committee To Protect Freedom of
Expression, the Yerevan Press Club, the Asparez journalists’ club and seven
other organizations stressed that the former senior official, who is notorious
for his violent conduct, “must be held accountable in accordance with the law.”
“During his time in office as chief of police Vladimir Gasparian stood out
through his arrogant attitude towards media representatives and in some cases
through his cruelty,” the statement said, referring to several such incidents in
the past, notably the 2015 and 2016 protests in Yerevan, “when more than 40
journalists and cameramen were targeted by police and were subjected to physical
violence and illegal persecution.”
The statement also made a mention of another incident in which the then chief of
police grossly insulted a local website’s reporter which then drew anger from
the journalistic community.
“All this went unpunished, and, apparently, that is the reason why today the
former chief of police continues to show indecent behavior towards journalists,”
the organizations stressed.
Gasparian, who served as chief of Armenia’s police for seven years before being
dismissed after the regime change in May 2018, drove his vehicle in the
direction of RFE/RL reporters, almost running over them, after seeing that they
were filming in the lakeside area where his house is presumably located.
Gasparian threatened the reporters, using phrases like “I’ll shoot you” and
“I’ll kill you,” and, using offensive language, he also demanded that the
reporters not show his house in their report.
RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported the incident to police.
“We are horrified at this attack on our Armenian Service reporters, by no less
than a former chief of police,” RFE/RL’s acting President Daisy Sindelar said on
August 9.
“The reporters were covering a story of significant public interest when Mr.
Gasparian nearly struck them with his vehicle, threatened to kill them, and
forced them to erase their footage,” Sindelar said.
“We demand that police investigate the incident, and that Mr. Gasparian be held
accountable for endangering journalists who were simply doing their jobs.”
The RFE/RL reporters were working on a follow-up story after Armenia’s newly
appointed environment minister said last week that authorities planned
dismantling illegally constructed facilities and houses located near Lake Sevan.
According to media reports, a number of houses belonging to several former
high-ranking officials, including Gasparian, are affected by the decision.
On Sunday, in connection with the incident, the Armenian police formally opened
a criminal case under Article 164.3 of Armenia’s Criminal Code (“Obstruction to
the legal professional activities of a journalist accompanied with threats to
the life or health of a journalist or his/her relative”), which is punishable by
between 3 and 7 years in prison. Investigation is currently underway.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
Category: 2020
US Company To Supply Azerbaijan With 15 Cutting-Edge Naval Crafts
Caspian News
By Mushvig Mehdiyev
August 9, 2020
Azerbaijan will beef up its marine fleet after purchasing ultra-modern
Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) response crafts from a leading
US-based marine company, worth more than $7 million.
The United States Marine Inc., a company that designs, builds and
tests boats for military, patrol and special warfare, among other
uses, announced this week that it will supply 15 EOD response craft
boats to Azerbaijan, in a deal worth $7,572,364.
“Work will be performed in Gulfport, Mississippi and is expected
to be completed by April 2022,” according to Navy Recognition.
“Foreign Military Sales funding in the amount of $7,572,364 will be
obligated at time of award and will expire at the end of the current
fiscal year. The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington, DC, is the
contracting activity.”
The nine-meter-long cutting-edge crafts are made out of composite
materials through a process called resin infusion lamination. The
United States Marine Inc. offers the boats in Open Center Console and
Cabin variants, both equipped with Twin Mercury Verado 250 horsepower
4 Stroke Outboard Gasoline engines. The EOD response crafts can reach
sprint speeds of up to 39+ knots, with cruising speeds of up to 30+
knots. They can be used for harbor patrol, passenger transport, diving
operations, evacuations and unmanned system operations. The boats are
equipped with a 50-caliber machine gun forward and aft.
Alexander Tikhanski, a military expert based in Belarus, says
military-technical cooperation with the world's leading arms companies
allows Azerbaijan to actively modernize its Armed Forces.
“Azerbaijan has spent $3.7 billion on its army at the peak of
equipment purchases. At present, the Azerbaijani army is the strongest
in the region after Russia and Turkey,” Tikhanski said.
The government of Azerbaijan allocated $2.27 billion for military and
national security purposes in the 2020 state budget. The amount is six
times higher than military spending in Georgia and three times higher
than Armenia. It is ranked 64th among the 138 countries of the world
and is the strongest in the South Caucasus region, according to data
compiled by independent military data tracker Global Firepower.
Azerbaijan's naval force includes one frigate, four submarines, seven
mine warfare and 13 patrol boats, among other assets.
The United States Marine Inc. is not the first American defense
company to secure a procurement deal with Azerbaijan. In September
2019, the Virginia-based VSE Corporation was awarded a $10 million
contract to supply the Caspian country’s military with
counterterrorism and intelligence equipment.
Azerbaijan is a strategically important US partner in the South
Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region due to its strategic location in
Eurasia and has proven to be a reliable energy exporter to
Washington’s allies in Europe, as well as a loyal NATO partner.
Additionally, Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to provide
assistance to the US in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 terror
attacks. Azerbaijani troops have been part of NATO peacekeeping forces
in Afghanistan since 2002 and even opened its airspace to US-led
coalition troops fighting there.
When the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission was launched in January
2015, Baku increased its contribution from 94 soldiers to 120.
Azerbaijan is the only country out of the five Caspian Sea nations to
contribute to this mission and 40 percent of the non-military supplies
to US and coalition forces in Afghanistan passes through Azerbaijani
territory.
Washington provides US security assistance and military contact
programs in Azerbaijan, including the Foreign Military Sales (FMS),
through the Office of Defense Cooperation Azerbaijan. Under the FMS
program, Washington provides defense equipment, services and training
to Azerbaijan.
Between 2018 and 2019, Azerbaijan's State Border Service and State
Customs Committee received security and defense assistance worth
$101.5 million from the US through the Department of Defense’s Section
333 program, according to Security Assistance Monitor, a Washington DC
watchdog.
The assistance package included 59 high-speed boats and other maritime
equipment, 60 ATV motorcycles and other vehicles, 401 surveillance
radar and other electronic equipment and 450,516 tactical vests and
other individual equipment.
Strengthening its defense capabilities is a key priority for the
Azerbaijani government, given its ongoing conflict with Armenia in
Azerbaijan's internationally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Following a full-scale war between the two countries from 1991-1994,
Armenia occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven adjacent
districts which comprise 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally
recognized territory. The bloody war claimed the lives of 30,000
ethnic Azerbaijanis, while one million were displaced forcibly from
their homes amidst occupation and mass ethnic cleansing campaigns by
Armenia's forces.
Since then, Armenia has repeatedly ignored international calls and UN
Security Council Resolutions calling for the withdrawal of its
occupying forces from Azerbaijani lands. Armenia's army also regularly
targets Azerbaijani positions and civilian areas, in a direct
violation of the 1994 ceasefire agreement between the two countries.
Armenpress: First Armenian relief plane arrives in Beirut
First Armenian relief plane arrives in Beirut
14:50, 9 August, 2020
YEREVAN, AUGUST 9, ARMENPRESS. The first Armenian relief aircraft carrying medicine and medical equipment to Beirut after the major explosion has arrived in the Lebanese capital, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan tweeted.
“First of the three airlifts of assistance from Armenia to brotherly Lebanon arrived in Beirut”, FM Mnatsakanyan tweeted. “From Armenia’s heart to Beirut”.
Two more flights carrying humanitarian aid will be sent from Armenia to Lebanon next week.
Armenia’s High Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs Zareh Sinanyan, other government officials and Members of Parliament are also visiting the Lebanese capital which is home to a large Armenian community.
Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan
Armenpress: Armenia and Artsakh send planeloads of humanitarian aid to Lebanon
Armenia and Artsakh send planeloads of humanitarian aid to Lebanon
23:36, 9 August, 2020
YEREVAN, AUGUST 9, ARMENPRESS. The Republic of Artsakh has sent a planeload of assistance to Lebanon to help in eliminating the aftermath of the devastating August 4 Beirut explosion, President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan said on social media.
The cargo “From the People of Artsakh to Lebanon” has already arrived in Beirut.
“The assistance is in the form of food,” President Harutyunyan said. “And this isn’t all, because I am going to convene a meeting on this issue tomorrow and I will inform on our decisions. Artsakh stands by Lebanon in overcoming this difficult challenge,” the President of Artsakh said.
In turn, the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan tweeted: “From
The first Armenian planeload comprising medicine and medical equipment was sent to Beirut on August 8.
Editing and writing by Stepan Kocharyan
Renewed clashes at Armenian gold mine highlight government indecision
EurasiaNet.org
Aug 11 2020
Aug 11, 2020
Researchers Survey “Armenian Stonehenge”
Architecture Magazine
Aug 11 2020
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
(Beko via Wikimedia Commons)
YEREVAN, ARMENIA—Public Radio of Armenia reports that 30 previously undocumented stones were discovered at a prehistoric monument known as Carahunge or Zorats Karer during a survey conducted by researchers from the Byurakan Observatory and the Armenian National University of Architecture and Construction. Located on a mountain plateau in southern Armenia, Carahunge is made up of at least 223 stones marked with holes, burial cists, and standing stones. The researchers measured the stones, scanned them with electronic equipment, and conducted an aerial photo-scan of the area. The new data will now be used for astronomical calculations. To read about the discovery of Neolithic pits surrounding England’s henge site of Durrington Walls, go to “.”
Catholicos Aram I visits Armenian churches damaged in Beirut blast
Public Radio of Armenia
Aug 11 2020
Dismay as Armenia’s colour revolution PM Pashinian congratulates Lukashenko
BNE Intellinews
Aug 11 2020
The quick congratulations offered to Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on his re-election—blatantly stolen from under the noses of the electorate—must have come as a kick in the teeth to the people of Belarus, while it can only have been a big disappointment to many of the Armenians who in the spring of 2018 were victorious with the velvet revolution that put the former newspaper editor and political prisoner in power.
However, as bne IntelliNews has reported, the lack of stated international support from governments around the world for the brave would-be revolutionaries of Belarus has been conspicuous by its absence, and no doubt Pashinian—hardened by the realities of realpolitik since he arrived in office in a world that has even seen the selfish and abject Trumpification of the so-called land of the free—questioned why small and impoverished Armenia should go first in riling Lukashenko and acting against its own interests.
“Dear Alexander Grigoryevich, Congratulations on your being re-elected as President of the Republic of Belarus,” Pashinian wrote, in a letter published on his website. “I avail myself of this opportunity to wish you robust health, as well as peace and prosperity.”
Only so much straining at the leash
Russia, of course, has given no indication that it is prepared to back those who contend that Lukashenko and his henchmen rode roughshod over what was a clear victory in the weekend presidential election by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and, if there is one thing that Pashinian has likely taken on board during his two and a half years as Armenia’s leader, it is that there is only so much straining at the leash that the Kremlin will tolerate when it comes to the Armenians’ strategic partnership with Moscow, vital to their economic and defence interests.
And this is no time to rock the boat—the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has come as a huge setback to the Armenian economy, which was previously picking up steam nicely, and the situation on the border with Azerbaijan is fraught following the recent military skirmishes. Russia sells arms to both Yerevan and Baku and officially takes a neutral standpoint over their dispute, but it is generally seen as slightly more on Armenia’s side. Pashinian would certainly not like to see a reversal in that situation.
Harsh realities aside, some of the response inside Armenia to the post-revolution government’s decision not to openly back Tikhanovskaya and her massed ranks of supporters has been scathing. The move “totally validates all of the people who say that the Velvet Revolution changed nothing in Armenia and that Armenia is Russia’s backyard,” digital media analyst Zarine Kharazyan tweeted, as cited by eurasianet.
Pashinian’s political opponents relished the sight of their nemesis doffing his cap to the Belarusian dictator. “It is interesting. Will the West forgive Nikol Pashinyan for congratulating Lukashenko? The characters ‘embodying’ them in Armenia no longer hide dissatisfaction. I believe that under the pressure of the facts being exposed, historians will come to the conclusion in the future that in April 2018, a foreign political sabotage—what has not been achieved in Belarus yet—took place towards Armenia,” Artak Zakaryan, a former deputy defence minister of Armenia, wrote in a Facebook post.
Armenia, like Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—suffice to say none of Central Asia’s ‘Stans’ are expected to utter a word of opposition to the Lukashenko ‘victory’ given their own various shades of despotism and habitual authoritarianism handed down from Soviet days of old—is a member of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and, with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, along with Russia, makes up the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) bloc for trade. Nevertheless, bilateral relations between Armenia and Belarus have not been smooth since Pashinian took power. The two nations have continued bickering over the latter’s supplies of weapons to Azerbaijan—which lately has been happy to oblige the Belarusians with hiked oil sales in the face of disagreements over Russian supplies to Minsk—and got into a small row over who should become the next leader of the CSTO.
Hemmed in by foes
Armenia is a tiny nation, hemmed in by foes. Apart from the invective hurled by Azerbaijan, it is now under sustained verbal attacks from Baku’s big ally in the neighbourhood, Turkey, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, beset by economic embarrassments, looking for any opportunities to burnish his nationalist and “neo-Ottoman” credentials as a distraction. Azerbaijan and Turkey in the past week have held menacing joint war games. Georgia, meanwhile, may, unlike the Azerbaijanis and Turks, have diplomatic relations with Yerevan, but it has thrown in its regional economic lot with Azerbaijan and Turkey, squeezing out Armenia in many respects. At the same time, the economic promise of building trade and investment with Iran, a big economy of 84mn compared to Armenia’s 3mn, has been curtailed by US sanctions on Tehran.
If Armenia wants to make new enemies, there’s almost certainly a better time to do it. It was perhaps always naïve to expect Yerevan to stand by Tikhanovskaya’s side to any meaningful extent. But ‘people’s PM’ Pashinian has a habit of romantically overselling himself and Armenia’s possibilities. In August 2018, he addressed a throng in the Armenian capital’s Republic Square, making the striking claim that his administration had established the kind of “people’s direct rule” that once existed in ancient Greece.
“This means that from now on this government will be accountable to this square, will obey this square, and all key decisions must be made here at this square,” he proclaimed. Did anyone observe him consulting the square before he sent his congratulations to Lukashenko?
Armenia PM’s spokesperson refutes news about Pashinyan and family attending wedding ceremony
News.am, Armenia
Aug 11 2020
Armenia PM’s spokesperson refutes news about Pashinyan and family attending wedding ceremony Armenia PM’s spokesperson refutes news about Pashinyan and family attending wedding ceremony
22:20, 11.08.2020
Armenian Expert Azadian: Russian Military Base In Armenia Is A Deterrent Against The Turkish Threat…
Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)
Aug 11 2020
Armenian Expert Azadian: Russian Military Base In Armenia Is A Deterrent Against The Turkish Threat;
Turkey Foments Crises So It Can Intervene In, Or Exploit, Destabilized Regions In Order To Expand Its Empire
August 11, 2020
In an article titled “Russian Base Casts Long Shadow on Armenia, Turkey,” Armenian intellectual Edmond Y. Azadian described the strategic importance of Russia’s military base in Armenia.[1] According to Azadian, although the base may be how Russia maintains its influence in the Caucasus region, it is also a powerful deterrent against any Turkish threat. “To defend its military base, Moscow has to defend Armenia’s territory,” he stressed.
Azadian argued that Armenia cannot afford to underestimate Turkey’s expansionist plans, stressing: “Turkey’s involvement in many conflicts defines its behavior pattern. Either it foments a crisis [in order] to intervene, like it did in Syria, or it takes advantage of destabilized regions, like Iraq and Libya, to expand its empire.” He added: “Following that logic, we cannot rule out the possibility that Ankara precipitated the recent crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan to begin implementing one of its long-held dreams.”
Below is Azadian’s article, as published in the English-language Armenian weekly Mirror Spectator:
Turkey’s Intent To Intimidate Armenia Is Plain To See
“The threat of war continues to loom on Armenia’s border. The battle in the Tavush region of Armenia was only one episode which may very well be followed by others. The Armenian side is cognizant of the fact that it should not yet rest on its laurels. [2]
“Armenia proved the battle-readiness of its armed forces. But to what extent? President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has characterized Armenia’s victory against Azerbaijan as a ‘punch well beyond its capacity,’[3] which in strategic terms may be interpreted as the victory by Armenia being the result of tactical assistance from its strategic ally, Russia.
“In today’s wars, drones have expanded the surveillance scope of armies. In this particular battle, the Azerbaijani army, which had boasted of its state-of-the-art military hardware, failed to deploy them properly and thus the Armenian side downed 13 of their drones, in addition to inflicting other critical losses.
“Wars now rely more and more on advanced technology both for weapons and surveillance systems, including satellite imaging, which is beyond Armenia’s reach. This is where an ally’s assistance can make the ultimate difference, and most probably this is what Erdoğan was talking about.
“From July 29 to August 10, the joint forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey are participating in war games on Armenia’s borders, as well as in Baku, Ganja, Erlakh and Nakhichevan, in a very demonstrative way, using live ammunition.
“People in Armenia claim to have spotted Turkish warplanes within striking distance of Yerevan. Although the news was refuted by government sources, the intent of the Turkish side to scare Armenia is plain to see.
“Political analyst Hagop Badalyan very stoically advises people in Armenia to learn to live with the Turkish threat of war but not to be intimidated.
“President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan is back to his bellicose mood, after his defeat in Tavush. He has refused out of hand the seven points proposed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan[4] and has called on Yerevan to withdraw its armed forces from Karabakh immediately, ‘before it’s too late.’
“Answering that threat, Armenia’s Defense Minister David Tonoyan has asked the rhetorical question as to ‘when would it be too late as our armed forces are ready and waiting for the order.’[5]
“While this heated rhetoric is being spouted by all parties, tanks are pulling up on Armenia’s borders and warplanes are flying over them, raising the question as to whether Turkey will attack Armenia.”
In Order To Defend Its Military Base, Moscow Has To Defend Armenia’s Territory
“Russia has taken Turkey’s moves very seriously and it has advanced the date of its own war games, which were planned for September. It has been exercising currently on Azerbaijan’s borders, with the participation of 150,000 soldiers and nuclear warheads as a direct warning to Turkey’s moves.
“On July 28, Defense Minister Tonoyan announced that Armenia’s armed forces have been put on high alert and that the Russian-Armenian military contingent is ‘continuing consistently to monitor and analyze’ Turkish-Azerbaijani military activities ‘with all reconnaissance means’ at its disposal.
“On the sidelines, however, a diplomatic charade is taking place. Despite its aggressive moves and stern threats, Ankara is trying to camouflage its intentions through diplomatic moves. First, Ibrahim Kalin, President Erdoğan’s spokesman, indicated that Turkey is in Nakhichevan to support its ally Azerbaijan and assured the public that Ankara’s moves do not intend to harm its relations with Moscow.
“In his turn, President Erdoğan has taken the initiative to call President Vladimir Putin. During their conversation Putin ‘has stressed the importance of preventing any steps that could cause an escalation in tensions.’[4]
“Once again, the issue of the Russian military base in Gyumri has become a topic of public discussion. Many anti-Russian politicians underestimate the significance of that base. Analysts like Levon Shirinyan and Armenian Parliament members like Arman Babajanyan and pundits like Varoujan Avetissyan (Sasna Tserer) and Tigran Zmalyan (European Party) are adamantly against the base. They try to suggest that Russia has set that base on Armenian territory ‘to enslave us.’
“However, they do not offer any alternative in case Armenia faces an existential threat.
“Granted, the base may be self-serving for Russia to maintain its influence in the Caucasus region. In the meantime, it is a deterrent against any Turkish threat. To defend its military base Moscow has to defend Armenia’s territory.
“In politics, there has to be a confluence of interests so that a major power is motivated to defend the weaker power. There is no free lunch.
Armenian Forces Are No Match For Turkey
“In a recent interview, the director of a political and military analytical center in Russia, Alexander Khramchikhin, confirmed the fact that the Russian base in Armenia is intended to contain Turkey: ‘If a war breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I am not sure what position Russia may take,’ the analyst stated. ‘But if the war takes place in Karabakh, I know for sure that Russia will not intervene. I repeat, the base is there to contain Turkey. The base is part of Russia’s geostrategic posture. Therefore, it is meant to stop Turkey, the foreign intruder in the region.’
“Mr. Khramchikhin also believes that Turkey has introduced its forces into Azerbaijan to pressure Armenia psychologically. But he believes that Turkey at this time ‘cannot invade Armenia, because it will be stretching its resources too far, as it is mired in many other conflicts.’
“We wished that it were true. Turkey’s involvement in many conflicts defines its behavior pattern. Either it foments a crisis to intervene, like it did in Syria, or it takes advantage of destabilized regions, like Iraq and Libya to expand its empire.
“Following that logic, we cannot rule out the possibility that Ankara precipitated the recent crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan to begin implementing one of its long held dreams.
“Strategically, Armenia is at the mercy of enemy forces; Turkish armed forces are in mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, which does not have a common border with the mainland, but has a narrow border with Turkey, acquired after a land swap with Iran in 1932.
“Armenian forces are no match for Turkey. Armenia must avoid any direct confrontation with the Turkish army. But Yerevan has other sources that it can use in diplomatic forums.
“Recently, Armenia’s representative Armen Babikyan raised the issue in Energy Intelligence, a publication of the International Atomic Agency, of Azerbaijan’s threat to bomb its nuclear power plant, Metsamor. On July 27, the issue was discussed at a Vienna conference, which characterized the threat as an act of state terrorism against Armenia.
“Armenia has not weaponized its strongest argument, the fact of genocide. Only after some timid references by Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan did Armenia’s Ambassador to Latvia Tigran Mkrtchyan issue a strongly-worded statement that Armenians will not tolerate a second genocide.
“Jews and Israel shout from the rooftops about the Holocaust they have suffered. We can emulate them and try to score some political points.
“What makes everything even worse is that during this current situation, there is polarization in Armenia. Any responsible and rational leadership would seek internal stability, to withstand the threats.
“The opposition and the government are equally responsible for the ongoing divide in Armenia: the first for its irresponsible and destabilizing rhetoric, and the latter for its witch hunt in rounding up perceived enemies.
“Armenia needs calm, de-escalation and unity. That will not be offered by Russia nor any other outside force. It is in the hands of the leadership to steer the county toward calmer waters.”
[1] Edmond Y. Azadian is Advisor to the Alex and Marie Manoogian Museum in Detroit, Michigan, Advisor from the Diaspora to the Ministry of Culture in Armenia, and member of the Republic of Armenia’s Academy of Sciences. He served as assistant editor of the Armenian daily Zartonk and editor-in-chief of the daily Arev in Cairo, Egypt, and is a leader of the Armenian Democratic Liberal Party. He has authored several books in Armenian and English, including Portraits and Profiles, Observations and Criticisms, and History on the Move; and has edited more than 21 books and published over 1,500 articles, book reviews, and essays in daily newspapers and literary magazines. His latest publication, a bilingual one, is dedicated to the famous Armenian poet, Vahan Tekeyan. He has been associated with the Mirror-Spectator for the last 45 years. Source: Mirrorspectator.com/author/edmond-azadian.
[2] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8886, Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions – Moscow-Based Expert Krylov: ‘The Turkish Military Presence In Azerbaijan Has Become Permanent’ And Strives For Constant Expansion; Erdoğan’s Policy Aims To Increase Turkey’s Influence – From North Africa To China’s Borders, August 10, 2020; MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8875, Russian Military Expert Pavel Felgenhauer: Russia Will Defend Armenia From The Turks; If Necessary, Russia Will Save Armenia With A Nuclear Strike, August 3, 2020; MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8864, Kommersant Columnist Yusin: Erdogan Is Pouring Kerosene On The Territorial Dispute Between Armenia And Azerbaijan, July 27, 2020; and MEMRI Daily Brief No. 226, Where Will Erdoğan Strike Next?, by Alberto M. Fernandez, August 4, 2020.
[3] On July 14, during a cabinet meeting, Erdoğan stated: “Undoubtedly, this attack is an event that goes beyond Armenia… The aim is to block the process of the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with a provocative approach and to reveal new conflict areas in the region.” See Erdoğan condemns Armenia border clash with Azerbaijan, July 14, 2020; Son dakika haberi: Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’dan önemli açıklamalar, Hurriyet.com.tr, July 14, 2020.
[4] On July 23, after the Armenian-Azerbaijani border clashes on July 12-14, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan put forward the following seven points:
First: The common security system of Armenia and Artsakh needs to be further strengthened. In this regard, I attach an ultimate importance to our close cooperation with the Republic of Artsakh and bringing a new content to this cooperation proportionate to the existing threat.
Second: The Republic of Artsakh should become a full party of negotiations.
Third: Azerbaijan must publicly renounce the use of force and take credible steps towards refraining from the anti-Armenian rhetoric.
Fourth: The negotiations must be meaningful. Azerbaijan’s position that the negotiations are the continuation of war and they should help to address military objectives at the negotiation table undermines the meaning of the whole peace process. Negotiations can be meaningful if Azerbaijan is willing to pull back from its maximalist position and is ready for compromise. The recognition of the right to self-determination of the people of Artsakh without any limitation and the security of the people of Armenia and Artsakh cannot be conceded under any circumstances.
Fifth: In recent days, Azerbaijan has targeted the civilian population and infrastructures of several border settlements in the Tavush region. The countries, supplying weapons to Azerbaijan, must clearly realize that the use of those weapons against the civilian population constitutes a crime. It creates an impression that it is not Azerbaijan that is fighting against the Armenian Armed Forces and civilian population, but rather those international corporations that are supplying high-precision lethal weapons along with their specialists. This thirty-years-long conflict has severely damaged Armenia’s borderline settlements and lives of people living thereon and in Artsakh, violating their political, economic, environmental rights, their right to free movement, among others. The approach that these rights can be exercised only after the settlement of the conflict is not acceptable. The needs of people, living in the conflict zone, must be a priority in the peace process.
Sixth: The ceasefire monitoring, that existed before the pandemic, has been in fact very limited. It is necessary to introduce effective international monitoring, which would be permanent and would have verification mechanisms in place to identify the side who committed ceasefire violations. Such monitoring activities can be implemented by the Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, which accumulated years of experience in the region and can ensure the permanent presence of the OSCE observers along the state border and the line of contact.
The direct line between the militaries on the ground is an effective tool for preventing and responding to incidents.
Seventh: Armenia will continue working with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs toward the peaceful settlement of the conflict. We have decisively rejected and will continue to reject Turkey’s attempts to destabilize the region through the manipulation of this conflict. See Primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2020/07/23/Cabinet-meeting-Speech.
[5] Armenian defense minister Davit Tonoyan commented on the statement of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, who said: “Liberate our territories before it’s too late.” Armenian defense minister spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan posted a video on Facebook in which the defense minister asks when “too late” is; stating: “First of all, given the fact that our Prime Minister, the President of Artsakh are always making peaceful statements, always call for continuing the negotiations, we cannot understand such statements [i.e. by the Azerbaijani president]. As defense minister, I would like to understand when this ‘too late’ is.” He added that such statements are typical also of the Azerbaijani military leadership, saying: “Their military leadership states that they are ready to start military operations, they are just waiting for an order. Firstly, it’s not as if we are not waiting for such an order. Secondly, the military operations in Tavush were vivid evidence of the fact that the adversary, despite using latest equipment, has failed in a short period of time, suffering numerous losses.” Armenpress.am, July 31, 2020.
[6] See .