Category: 2020

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is calling for “stability” and an “end” to the current fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan — but should the conflict between its northern neighbors escalate, Tehran may well deepen its involvement.

What to watch: Iran’s recent history — specifically the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) — provides a model of how that escalation might happen.

The big picture: The foreign-supplied arsenals boasted by both Armenia and Azerbaijan carry the risk of missile salvos targeting one another’s population centers, as seen in the “War of the Cities” between Iran and Iraq.

Another similarity between the two conflicts is the role of proxy forces.

• Iran created Lebanese Hezbollah in 1982, the same year it invaded Iraq. During the war, Tehran relied on the Badr Organization, a group of Iraqi Shiite exiles to fight Saddam Hussein’s army.
• Now, there are reportedly Syrian jihadists fighting on Azerbaijan’s side, with support from Turkey, a development Iran’s Rouhani called “unacceptable.”

The Iran-Iraq War also demonstrates that new alliances can come together, and multiple conflicts can converge, over the course of a larger war.

• For example, Iran unsuccessfully took on the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf during its war with Iraq.
• Where things stand: Turkey is already playing an active role in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and another neighbor, Russia, clearly has interests to protect as well.

What to watch: Less attention is being played to the role of a third neighbor, Iran, which previously backed Christian Armenia rather than Shiite Azerbaijan when the two went to war in the 1990s, a decision best explained by geopolitics.

• Tehran officially supports Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity (Nagorno-Karabakh is inside Azerbaijan’s borders), but has been accused of favoring Armenia and providing supplies to the Armenian-aligned government in Nagorno-Karabakh prior to the recent flare-up (Iran denies that).
• There have been at least two indications that Iran may take a larger role now: ethnic Azeri protests in Iran in favor of Azerbaijan, and warnings by Iranian security officials that a spillover of shelling into Iranian territory won’t be tolerated.
• Iran may also seize any opportunities to export weapons and offset adversaries like Israel, which is a leading arms exporter to Azerbaijan.

The bottom line: If the peaceful settlement Rouhani and others are calling for arrives soon, those calculations won’t come into play. If not, we could see shadows of another war that began four decades ago.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

The worsening conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has seen one regional power — Turkey — throw its weight against both Russia and its own NATO allies.

And its President Tayyip Erdogan has described it as part of a quest for Turkey’s, quote, “deserved place in the world order.”

Turkey is backing Azerbaijan in the fighting over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkish-made drones now spearhead Azeri attacks and one senior official in Ankara said Turkey was providing infrastructure and support for the weapons, though it has no troops in the field.

Hundreds dead, heavy artillery, tanks, and planes. It’s the worst fighting there in decades.

Erdogan sees an opportunity to change the status quo, rather than going along with decades-old mediation efforts by the U.S., France and Russia that he says have failed.

And to bolster support at home by flexing muscle abroad.

Ankara’s reliance on gas imports from Azerbaijan adds another incentive.

The enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, but ruled and populated by ethnic Armenians.

Cross-border campaigns such as those waged by Turkey in northern Syria, Iraq and Libya are a priority for Erdogan, another Turkish official said, and boost support for his party.

But Turkey denies accusations by the French and Syrian presidents that it has sent Syrian jihadists it backs to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh.

And Russian allegations it’s sending mercenaries.

Although Turkey’s stance sends an implicit threat to Armenia and its ally Moscow, Erdogan’s also betting that despite their differences, Turkey and Russia get on well enough to prevent a wider conflict in the region.

– The worsening conflicts between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has seen one regional power, Turkey, throw its weight against both Russia and its own NATO allies, and its President Tayyip Erdogan has described it as part of a quest for Turkey’s, quote, “deserved place in the world order.”

Turkey is backing Azerbaijan in the fighting over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish-made drones now spearhead Azeri attacks, and one senior official in Ankara said Turkey was providing infrastructure and support for the weapons, though it has no troops in the field. Hundreds dead, heavy artillery, tanks and planes– it’s the worst fighting there in decades.

Edogan sees an opportunity to change the status quo, rather than going along with decades old mediation efforts by the US, France, and Russia, that he says have failed, and to bolster support at home by flexing muscle abroad. Ankara’s reliance on gas imports from Azerbaijan adds another incentive.

The enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan but ruled and populated by ethnic Armenians. Cross-border campaigns, such as those waged by Turkey in northern Syria, Iraq, and Libya, are a priority for Erdogan, another Turkish official said, and boost support for his party. But Turkey denies accusations by the French and Syrian presidents that it has sent Syrian jihadists it backs to fight in the Nagorno-Karabakh and Russian allegations it’s sending mercenaries.

Although Turkey’s stance sends an implicit threat to Armenia and its ally Moscow, Erdogan’s also betting that despite their differences, Turkey and Russia get on well enough to prevent a wider conflict in the region.

The genocide of 1915 looms large as Armenians feel renewed fear and bitterness about Turkey’s involvement in the newly inflamed situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.