Category: 2020

The agreement, which falls short of what would have been a fourth ceasefire, was reached during talks in Geneva between the countries’ foreign ministers and envoys from France, Russia and the United States, co-chairs of the group created to mediate.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group said in a statement that Armenia and Azerbaijan had also agreed to exchange the bodies of fighters and to provide within a week lists of detained prisoners of war, with the aim of an eventual exchange.

Human rights groups called earlier for an immediate halt to the use of banned weapons by both sides after confirming the use of cluster munitions either fired or supplied by Armenian forces in an attack this week on the Azeri city of Barda.

The worst fighting in the South Caucasus for more than 25 years has brought into sharp focus the increased influence of Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, in a former Soviet region considered by Russia to be within its sphere of influence.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but is populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians. About 30,000 people were killed in a 1991-94 war in the region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to refrain from targeting residential areas in the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region that has left hundreds of people dead.

The agreement was reached Friday during talks in Geneva between the foreign ministers of the two countries, along with representatives from France, Russia and the United States.

Armenia and Azerbaijan promised to “not deliberately target civilian populations or nonmilitary objects” and to exchange the bodies of fighters as well as exchange lists of prisoners of war.

The deal falls short of a cease-fire after three previous cease-fires failed. The most recent one was brokered in Washington last Sunday by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and followed two previous failed cease-fires negotiated by Russia.

Russia, the United States and France co-chair the Minsk Group, set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 1992 to mediate the conflict.

The ongoing fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia erupted September 27 and has killed hundreds of people, marking the biggest escalation since a 1994 cease-fire over the breakaway region.

The predominantly ethnic Armenian territory declared its independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 during the collapse of the Soviet Union, sparking a war that claimed the lives of as many as 30,000 people before a 1994 cease-fire.

According to AP, Azerbaijani forces pushed farther into Nagorno-Karabakh on Friday.

Many observers are concerned fighting could expand into a wider conflict involving Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, and Russia, which considers the region to be in its sphere of influence.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Turkey to be invited to the talks.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan today received Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Seyyed Abbas Araghchi.

Welcoming Mr. Araghchi’s visit to Yerevan, the Prime Minister stressed that Armenia highly values the ongoing friendly relations with Iran. Taking the opportunity, Nikol Pashinyan conveyed greetings to Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani and to the government of friendly Iran.

In turn, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran conveyed warm greetings and wishes for peace on behalf of the Iranian President. He appreciated the existing ties of strong friendship between Iran and Armenia. Introducing Iran’s approaches to settling the regional situation, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi voiced deep concerns over the ongoing hostilities. He offered condolences for civilian casualties and condemned the attacks on civilian infrastructure and human settlements.

The parties went on to exchange views on regional security issues. They voiced shared concern over the involvement in the conflict of international terrorists from the Middle East. The interlocutors viewed this as a threat to the security of the entire region with the potential to expand.

Prime Minister Pashinyan highly appreciated Iran’s balanced and constructive approach to regional issues.

Both sides to refrain from targeting civilians, falling short of ceasefire

GENEVA (Reuters) — Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on Friday to refrain from deliberately targeting civilians in a conflict over the mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where hundreds have been killed in more than a month of fighting.

The agreement, which falls short of what would have been a fourth ceasefire, was reached during talks in Geneva between the countries’ foreign ministers and envoys from France, Russia and the United States, co-chairs of the group created to mediate.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group said in a statement that Armenia and Azerbaijan had also agreed to exchange the bodies of fighters and to provide within a week lists of detained prisoners of war, with the aim of an eventual exchange.

New Atlanticist by Matthew Bryza

Azerbaijan seems poised to capture a crucial city that could end the military phase of its war with Armenia. Securing a political victory in the war, however, will require Azerbaijan’s restraint to avert a humanitarian catastrophe that could arise were its forces to press all the way into the capital of the region.

On October 29, the leader of Nagorno Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, issued an ominous warning that Azerbaijani troops were within 5 kilometers of the city of Shushi.  He then appealed to all residents of Nagorno Karabakh to join the fight to hold the city, stressing, “As in 1992, when our victory began with the liberation of Shushi, today, our victory depends on the defense of Shushi.” 

Known to Azerbaijanis as Shusha, this city within Nagorno Karabakh is of great importance to both sides. Culturally, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis consider the city a cradle of their respective cultures. Militarily, it sits atop commanding heights above Nagorno Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert (or Khankendi for Azerbaijanis). Whoever controls Shusha controls the “Lachin Corridor,” the lifeline linking Armenia to Stepanakert via the occupied Azerbaijani district of Lachin.

During the past month, Azerbaijan’s army has been decimating Armenian forces.  Initially, Azerbaijan relied on precision drone strikes (using drones purchased from Turkey and Israel) to destroy Armenia’s high-value military assets (e.g., air defenses, tanks, and artillery) and regain its districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil, which, like five others that surround Nagorno Karabakh, had been occupied by Armenia since the first Karabakh war. Azerbaijani forces then achieved a military breakthrough along the border with Iran about two weeks ago. Azerbaijan subsequently shifted to a combined arms operation that has pushed northward, regaining its regions of Zenglian and Gubadli, and now pressing into Lachin and toward Shusha.

Azerbaijan’s battlefield successes have sparked fears that the Azerbaijani military might now press its advantage to Shushi and beyond to Khankendi, spurred on by Azerbaijani citizens’ newfound nationalist fervor. Such sentiment has intensified as civilian casualties have mounted from Armenian shelling (including by tactical ballistic missiles) of Azerbaijani towns far from the conflict zone. These attacks have been accompanied by Azerbaijani shelling of Armenian civilians in Stepanakert/Khankendi.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, however, has consistently proposed more restrained goals, namely to:

• Regain political control of Azerbaijan’s seven districts that surround Nagorno Karabakh;
• Facilitate the return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their former homes in Nagorno Karabakh and its seven surrounding Azerbaijani reasons;
• Rebuild these regained territories; and
• Resume negotiations with Armenia about the future legal status of Nagorno Karabakh, with the region’s Armenian residents free to remain in their homes after their former Azerbaijani neighbors return.

Convincing Armenians to remain in Nagorno Karabakh will be difficult. They fear for their physical security and loathe being forced to become citizens of Azerbaijan if Nagorno Karabakh returns to Baku’s control. 

In an October 29  interview to Russia’s Interfax News Agency, however, President Aliyev suggested a way forward. On security, Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan is “…ready to stop all military operations immediately” if Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan commits to withdraw all Armenian troops from the conflict zone. It is important to recognize that Aliyev insisted only on a commitment by Yerevan to withdraw its troops rather than actual withdrawal. 

On citizenship rights, Aliyev reiterated his call for negotiations to end the conflict on the basis of the so-called “Basic Principles.” First tabled in November 2007 by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, the Basic Principles allow inter alia for Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents to claim they are not citizens of Azerbaijan because they live in a region whose legal status is ambiguous and not necessarily part of Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan will resist accepting these conditions. He has already declared “There is no diplomatic solution” to the war over Nagorno Karabakh and publicly abandoned the Basic Principles and their fundamental formula of “land for peace,” instead embracing a formulation of “new territories for new wars.” President Aliyev also faces political danger at home if he defies intense popular sentiment for total military victory.

As they fill a diplomatic vacuum in the region, Russia and Turkey may now be planning to counsel their respective partners to show restraint. In the October 10 ceasefire agreement Russia brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently compelled Pashinyan again to embrace the Basic Principles, (which his predecessor and President Aliyev informally accepted in January 2009).  Meanwhile, Turkey’s Daily Sabah newspaper reports that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told Putin that Russia could lean on Armenia while Turkey could do the same with Azerbaijan to end the fighting.

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan would be wise to embrace the political cover their Russian and Turkish counterparts might provide. To survive politically, Pashinyan needs Putin’s public support if he is to stop the fighting by committing to withdraw all Armenian troops and proceed with peace talks in line with the Basic Principles. But by doing so, Pashinyan would save many Armenian soldiers’ lives and provide Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents a chance for a peaceful and prosperous future.  He would also bring Armenia into compliance with four United Nations Security Council Resolutions calling for its troops to withdraw from the Azerbaijani regions they occupy. And if Aliyev is willing to defy the Azerbaijani public’s demands for military vengeance, he will spare his country international pariah status while enabling Azerbaijan to attract the international support it will need to rebuild its recovered lands.

Matthew Bryza is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center. He served as a US diplomat for over two decades, including as US ambassador to Azerbaijan, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, and as a former US mediator of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

Armenia and Azerbaijan once more accused each other of bombing residential areas on Saturday, in defiance of a pact to avoid the deliberate targeting of civilians in and around the mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Shelling was reported by both sides within hours of the latest agreement to defuse the conflict, reached after talks in Geneva between the two countries’ foreign ministers and envoys from France, Russia and the United States.