Category: 2020

Azerbaijan’s military death toll reaches 7,405

Andranik Taslakhchian
Public Radio of Armenia
Nov 6 2020

Azerbaijan has suffered 7,405 losses in manpower since the start of the hostilities on September 27, the Armenian Unified Infocenter informs.

According to the latest update, 257 Azerbaijani drones have been shot down; 16 helicopters and 25 planes have been destroyed.


A total of 736 units of armored vehicles and 6 TOS systems have also been struck by the Artsakh forces.

The Armenian Unified Infocenter provides updates on the Azerbaijani losses on daily basis.



Armenian FM briefs Canadian counterpart on situation in Nagorno Karabakh

Vanyan Gary
Public Radio of Armenia
Nov 6 2020

Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan briefed his Canadian counterpart François-Philippe Champagne on the situation in Nagorno Karabakh.

“Today civilians in Stepanakert and Shushi were again under heavy shelling. Foreign terrorists brought over by Turkey for Azerbaijan fight against Artsakh. Much appreciate support and action of our friends,” FM Mnatsakanyn wrote on Twitter after the phone conversation.

François-Philippe Champagne said, in turn, stressed the need for a ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh, and added that “allowing humanitarian assistance is a priority.”

“We’re working with allies to stop foreign interference and call on external forces to stay out of the conflict to end civilian casualties,” the Canadian Foreign Minister said.

Another Azerbaijani drone shot down by Artsakh forces

Maral Chavushian
Public Radio of Armenia

Nov 6 2020

The Air Defense Forces of the Artsakh Defense Army shot down an Azerbaijani UAV on the southeastern front at around 11.30 am, the Defense Army reports.


The battle for Shusha Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has reached a turning point. Here are the most recent developments in the conflict zone.

Ani Basmajian
Meduza
Nov 6 2020
10:07 pm, November 6, 2020
Source: Meduza


The deadly fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that reignited in Nagorno-Karabakh at the end of September is entering a decisive phase. On November 6, Azerbaijani troops reached the outskirts of the city of Shusha, a cornerstone of the entire Armenian defense. Now, if the Armenian side is unable to carry out a successful counteroffensive — clearing the road connecting the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to Armenia and removing the threat of Shusha being seized — then the war will surely take a strategic turn in favor of Azerbaijan. In this case, the very existence of independent Nagorno-Karabakh (officially named the Republic of Artsakh) could come under threat. Working with the limited information coming from battlefield, “Meduza” breaks down the most recent developments in the conflict.

Currently, the fighting is heavy for both sides. The Armenian forces defending Shusha and its surrounding area are helped by its location: the city is situated in the mountains and stands on a giant cliff overlooking the region. The Azerbaijani army is suffering heavy losses during ambushes, which the Armenian side arranges daily in the ravines leading towards the city.

However, the two parties are obviously unequal: for a month, the Armenian side has suffered much too heavy losses in terms of both manpower and equipment (both sides have lost thousands of combatants and several dozen civilians have been killed so far). The Armenians are clearly in no condition to defend the entire length of the approximately 40-kilometer road that connects Armenia to the municipal centers of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic — it’s capital Stepanakert (or Khankendi in Azerbaijani) is only about a dozen kilometers from Shusha. Azerbaijani special forces reached the road on October 4, and since then Nagorno-Karabakh’s armed forces have been unable to drive them out.

  • The Nagorno-Karabakh army began experiencing a series of defeats in early October, when the Azerbaijani army broke through on the plain along the border between Nagorno-Karabakh and Iran. The terrain there favored Azerbaijan’s mechanized units, which had a clear advantage over the Armenian side.
  • Azerbaijani forces pushed back against Armenian counter attacks and quickly cleared Nagorno-Karabakh’s entire border with Iran, going directly towards Armenia. After that, they turned their offensive to the mountainous regions in the North. At first, Azerbaijan’s army tried to break through the ravines in the West, targeting Lachin — a town located on the road that connects Armenia to Shusha and Stepanakert. However, after a few days of fighting, the Azerbaijani forces, who were constantly exposed to artillery fire from Armenia proper, got bogged down in the mountains a few kilometers from Lachin. One video from a reconnaissance drone, which the Armenian Defense Ministry published on November 6, shows a defeated Azerbaijani convoy several kilometers away from the town. When exactly the video was filmed remains unknown. 
Territories taken under Azerbaijan’s control by November 5
  • After the relative setback at Lachin, the Azerbaijanis launched an offensive on a no less inaccessible terrain — in the ravines and surrounding wooded mountains, which could lead them from the Iranian border directly to the center of Nagorno-Karabakh — to Shusha and on to Stepanakert. At first, the Armenian military’s spokespeople reported that small Azerbaijani reconnaissance groups were operating in the mountains and were being “destroyed.” But on October 29, Stepanakert and Yerevan realized the full extent of the danger of the situation: Nagorno-Karabakh’s president Arayik Harutyunyan released a video, in which he admitted that the enemy was on the outskirts of Shusha; he recalled the Armenian saying “Who controls Shusha, controls Karabakh” and called on all Armenians to stand up and protect the “holy city.”
  • For a week, battles continued in the mountain range and the ravines south of the Shusha; the Armenian army used the same tactics as in Lachin — artillery raids and ambushes targeting Azerbaijani units trying to advance on the city. And yet, by November 4, the Azerbaijanis had managed to gain firm control over the mountains south of Shusha and the road from Shusha towards Lachin. On the night of November 5, Azerbaijani special forces reached the road and went directly towards the cliff that Shusha stands on.
  • From that moment on, the arriving Armenian reinforcements tried to dislodge the special forces (as well as approaching Azerbaijani reinforcements), but they seemingly didn’t succeed. Journalists working on the Armenian side captured close combat along the road on November 5; judging by the geolocation of the videos, the Azerbaijanis managed to extend control over the road leading to the outskirts of Shusha. 
The situation in the area around Shusha on the afternoon of November 5

The Armenians are now tasked with trying to dislodge the Azerbaijani special forces from the Shuha—Lachin road and from the surrounding forests. They don’t have another choice. If Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh army do not launch a successful counteroffensive in the coming days, they will lose a critical supply line and a threat to the unrecognized republic’s capital will emerge (as previously mentioned, Stepanakert is located just a dozen kilometers from Shuha). It will be impossible to hold on to remaining territory and the hope for a compromise political solution to the conflict will be lost completely.

In addition, Armenia (and it’s sympathizers among politicians from Russia, France, and the United States) doesn’t have any “material” left to offer when it comes to brokering a compromise.

On October 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the following as a possible “plan that will suit both parties”:

  • Armenia gives up the Azerbaijani territories that didn’t belong to the Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh region when it occupied them during the war in the 1990s “to ensure the security of Karabakh.”
  • The actual status of Nagorno-Karabakh will be determined later.
  • The parties declare a ceasefire and, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated, peacekeepers must be brought to the line of contact (Russia is ready to cooperate with other countries in this regard, including Azerbaijan’s main ally — Turkey). 

In the same vein of “reaching a compromise that will suit all parties,” Iran presented a plan to Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku last week — the details of which have yet to be disclosed.

However, Azerbaijan has already occupied almost all of the territory that Putin planned to “give up” in exchange for both a postponed decision on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status and a ceasefire. The only remaining territories are the Lachin District and the Kalbajar District in the North — along which runs the only remaining road connecting Stepanakert to Armenia that hasn’t been cut off by the Azerbaijani army. That said, this road is of little use as a supply line (the journey takes many hours and appears to be under fire from Azerbaijani forces in several locations). But, in the event of a military disaster, Nagorno-Karabakh’s military and civilian authorities could use it for evacuations.

There’s little hope that Nagorno-Karabakh’s forces will avoid defeat in this situation. Apparently, the Nagorno-Karabakh army has tapped all of its reserves, as has Armenia, which formally isn’t involved in the conflict, but is almost officially supplying Stepanakert with entire units of reservists and volunteers, as well as equipment. So far, the Armenian forces have yet to launch a successful counter offensive and all of them have resulted in heavy losses. This is due in part to the Azerbaijani sides’ rapid advance on Shusha. 

So long as they still hold Shusha, however, the Armenians can use the terrain to their advantage: it’s difficult to advance in the mountains, especially for an army like Azerbaijan’s, which relies on the advantage of possessing heavy equipment. However, despite the fact that the Azerbaijani forces were apparently unable to transport equipment through the ravines south of Shusha until November 5, their special forces reached the Shusha-Lachin road all the same.

In recent days, Azerbaijan has refrained from using its main trump card — Turkish and Israeli-made armed drones, which previously cost the Nagorno-Karabakh army huge losses, especially in terms of tanks, artillery, and other heavy equipment. The reason behind the absence of drones over the battlefield remains unclear. The Armenian military hinted that they have some kind of “military secret,” which would allow them to prevent the use of drones (nothing has been said about the nature of this “secret” officially; it’s possible that it refers to some Russian technology — on the eve of the present conflict, Armenia conducted joint military exercises with the Russian army on countering drones). However, it’s more likely that this isn’t a matter of “military secrets” but rather of bad weather — in particular, low lying clouds and fog. The weather is forecast to improve for several days by Sunday, November 8. 

Nevertheless, the Armenians do indeed appear to have “secrets” linked to the Russian military. They’ve been using drones in recent days — not armed ones, but reconnaissance drones that operate at a low altitude (where clouds don’t interfere with them) and provide target designations for Armenian artillery. Video footage from one of these drones revealed that the Armenian side is using a Russian drone model, the Orlan-10. The delivery of these drones to Armenia wasn’t reported before the conflict broke out, but they are definitely in use at Russia’s military base in Gyumri, Armenia. That said, this technology is unlikely to radically change the balance of power at the front.

Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: a New Proxy War in the South Caucasus?

Garnik Tadevosian
Global Risk Insights
Nov 6 2020

by Carlotta Serioli , November 6, 2020


For decades, the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has evoked border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recently, armed violence between the two countries threatens to escalate into full-blown conflict, which could involve both Turkey and Russia.

The September 2020 Armenian–Azerbaijani clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh mark the second time in less than three months that the countries have come to blows. Both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces continue to reject international calls for ceasefire, and Azerbaijan’s military offense seems more determined than in previous conflicts.

This recent eruption of violence differs from previous skirmishes that have occurred since the end of the war, and the looming threat that a larger regional proxy war involving Russia and Turkey seems more likely than ever before.

The Nagorno-Karabakh province, landlocked between Armenia and Azerbaijan, was annexed to Azerbaijan during the Soviet Era. As the USSR crumbled, clashes erupted between the Armenian majority of the region, which sought union with Armenia or independence, and the Azerbaijani minority. This degenerated into a brutal war in which 30.000 people lost their lives and about a million more were displaced amid reports of atrocities and ethnic cleansing committed by both sides.

In 1994, the war ended with a ceasefire and effective stalemate; since then Yerevan and Baku have been locked in disagreement over the disputed province and the seven districts surrounding it. Unsurprisingly, several violations of the ceasefire have occurred ever since. Most notably, border clashes erupted in 2016 and resumed this July when 16 people were killed, including an esteemed Azerbaijani general. As a result, thousands of people responded with street protests in Baku, demanding that the Azerbaijani government seize control of the province.

Since hostilities resumed on September 27th, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared martial law and total military mobilization, which includes artillery strikes and air power. Reports suggest that over 350 people have been killed, making it the deadliest clash between the two former Soviet republics since 2016. Overall, recent violence is on pace to be the worst since the end of the war.

Given the region’s history of stalemate and impasse, some may argue that Azerbaijan will eventually succumb to Russian pressure and that both factions will lay down arms. Alternatively, some may also hope that Azerbaijan will settle for partial gains (especially as regards the seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh) and declare victory, which would placate public opinion at home.

However, that seems to be wishful thinking. The recent outbreak of violence is escalating at unprecedented rates, and analysts are pointing to signs that suggest a more serious conflict than we have seen in previous years.

Firstly, both governments seem to have come to the conclusion that there is no political solution to the dispute and that a stalemate is no longer sustainable.

In fact, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for “unification between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia” in a speech last year. Also, support for the Armenian cause seems stronger than in the past: the country is appealing to radicalized volunteers worldwide who are ideologically and religiously motivated. These are men of all ages and backgrounds who sometimes even lack previous military experience. They are sons of the Armenian Diaspora who are traveling to the South Caucasus from all over the world and independently volunteering to fight against Azerbaijan in order to win what they perceive to be a holy war: for them, Nagorno-Karabakh is “Armenia’s Jerusalem”.

For its part, compared to the poorly run campaigns of the past, Baku seems better prepared and more coordinated this time: it has deployed more troops and they are now fighting on all fronts of the border with Armenia. As such, Armenia enjoys a level of support and self-justification that hasn’t been present in earlier conflicts.

Secondly, in addition to heavy weaponry, infantry, helicopters and masses of drones have also been deployed by both sides, indicating stronger determination from both factions compared to previous conflicts, wherein troops were less prepared, less strategic and less coordinated across different parts of the front line. Thirdly, civilian areas have been targeted for the first time since the end of the war, and there is now the threat that fighting could also spill over into areas where pipelines deliver gas and oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey through Georgia.

Lastly, some speculate that because of Covid-19 there have been virtually no international efforts to keep hostilities at bay since this spring, which is said to have led to this summer’s clashes. Analysts also believe that the failure to mediate in the aftermath of July may have precipitated the current eruption of armed violence. As such, the conflict is proving to be far more complex, bloody, and widespread than previous instances of violence. 

The EU, the US, Russia and the UN Security Council have all called for a ceasefire in the region. However, Turkey has urged Azerbaijan to push forward. In fact, Ankara has always been politically aligned to Baku: the Azeris, a member of a Turkic people forming the majority population of Azerbaijan, feel they share the same language and ethnicity as the people of Turkey.

This support isn’t purely rhetorical: reports indicate that Mr Erdogan’s government has sent Syrian mercenaries to fight on the Azerbaijani front and it has provided drones to Azerbaijan’s army. Moreover, Armenia has accused Turkey of shooting down one of their planes, which Turkish officials vehemently deny.

To further complicate matters, escalation on the part of Azerbaijan – coupled with further Turkish involvement – could drag Russia into the conflict and put Putin in an uncomfortable position. On the one hand, the Kremlin sells weapons to Azerbaijan, but on the other hand it has a mutual defense pact with Armenia. In theory, because Nagorno-Karabakh is legally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, President Putin is under no commitment to defend Armenia if the province is attacked. However, if Azerbaijani or Turkish forces extend hostilities into Armenian territories it seems he will have no choice but to defend his ally, thereby escalating a proxy war.

Violence has already reached unprecedented levels since the end of the war in 1994, and both factions seem more committed to Nagorno-Karabakh than ever before. So far, calls for ceasefire have fallen on deaf ears and tension may get further out of control. If that is the case, outside powers might get involved and escalate frictions into a larger regional war. Turkey and Russia are already tangled up in two proxy wars in Libya and in Syria, and they now run the danger of fighting a third one over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The prospect of a long conflict was further epitomized between Friday 9 October and Saturday 10 October. Only a few minutes after Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire – brokered by the Russian Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov – they both accused each other of violating it.  



Nagorno-Karabakh reports civilian casualties amid shelling

Emma Nadirian
Deutsche Welle, Germany
Nov 6 2020

Authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have said Azerbaijan attacked residential areas in two of their largest cities with rockets and artillery shells. Azerbaijan has denied targeting civilian areas.

At least three civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh’s largest city were killed during overnight shelling by Azeri forces as Baku pushed its offensive to gain control over separatist territory for a sixth week.

Local authorities said a woman and her two grandchildren died in the same house in the regional capital, Stepanakert, after rockets and artillery shells hit residential areas.

The strategic city of Shushi, 15 kilometers (9 miles) to the south of Stepanakert and the enclave’s second-largest city was also attacked overnight. Several houses were on fire, the territory’s Emergency and Rescue Service reported.

“The Azerbaijani-Turkish forces opened intense gunfire at the town of Shushi and the city of Stepanakert during the entire night,” Armenian state news agency Armenpress reported.

Independent observers said fighting appeared to be moving deeper into the mountainous enclave.

Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry has denied the reports of targeting civilian areas, calling the allegations “misinformation.” Azerbaijan has accused Armenia of targeting the city of Terter and nearby villages in Azerbaijan.

At least 1,000 people have died in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians backed by Armenia since a war ended there in 1994. The latest outbreak of conflict began on September 27.

According to Nagorno-Karabakh officials, 1,177 of their troops and 50 civilians have been killed. Baku has reported at least 92 civilian deaths and more than 400 wounded.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 22 that the actual death toll was nearing 5,000.

According to the UN children’s agency UNICEF, over 130,000 residents have been displaced since fighting escalated.

The conflict, which also threatens the security of Azeri oil and gas pipelines, has continued despite two Russia-brokered cease-fires and a US-negotiated truce failing instantly after it took effect.

A week ago, France, Russia and the United States called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to make a mutual agreement not to target residential areas, but the accord failed within hours.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that Armenian forces must withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh for the conflict to end.



Russia & Germany call for immediate ceasefire amid fears Nagorno-Karabakh war could become Yugoslavia-like humanitarian crisis

Emil Lazarian
RT – Russia Today
Nov 6 2020
The capital of the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh is preparing for an assault by Azerbaijani troops, this weekend, while Russia and the European Union work to try to secure at least a temporary pause in hostilities.

Stepanakert, the administrative centre of the de facto Armenian-controlled breakaway region, which Azerbaijan considers part of its territory, is expected to be the next frontier in the war between the two nations. The city is home to around 55,000 people and is the largest conurbation in the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh. There are fears that fighting there could precipitate a humanitarian crisis in the region, as Azerbaijani troops continue to make gains.

Close to half of Nagorno-Karabakh’s 150,000 residents have reportedly been displaced by the conflict. In recent years, the civil war in nearby Syria has caused an exodus of refugees that has become a crisis for European nations and fuelled migration across the continent. A number of refugees from Syria have also made homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, with 22,000 fleeing to Armenia since 2011. They now face being displaced once again.

Following a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, earlier this week, both countries “reaffirmed the need for speedy implementation of the agreements contained in the Moscow statement of the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia of 10 October.” It had been hoped that the Kremlin-backed ceasefire would lead to a lasting break in the fighting. President Vladimir Putin has called for all sides “to do everything possible to prevent further escalation and stop hostilities.”

On Tuesday, Lavrov warned he was “worried about the internationalization of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the involvement of militants from the Middle East.” He pointed to evidence that Syrian militants have been recruited to fight for Azerbaijan and stressed the need to “stop the transfer of militants, whose number is approaching 2,000.”

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lashed out at the Russian diplomat’s comments in an interview with Spanish media on Thursday, refuting the claims and saying that “over a month has passed, but there is still no evidence, document or argument. There are only statements.”


“Why are they shutting an eye to what is happening on the Armenian side and how many mercenaries are fighting on the Armenian side?” he asked, adding, “Why are Russia and France accusing us and not saying anything about that?”

Putin has stated the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has already left 5,000 dead, with both sides reporting civilian casualties as a result of shelling.



​Greenberg Traurig drops Turkey

Parkev Tvankchian
Politico
Nov 6 2020
 
 
 
Greenberg Traurig drops Turkey
 
By THEODORIC MEYER  11/06/2020 02:58 PM EST
 
With Daniel Lippman
 
FIRST IN PI — GREENBERG TRAURIG DROPS TURKEY: The law and lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig has cut ties with the Turkish government under pressure from Armenian-American activists furious over Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in its ongoing hostilities with Armenia. The firm sent an internal email this week announcing that it had terminated its relationship with Turkey on Oct. 29, according to a person who saw the email. The firm declined to comment. The Turkish embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.
 
— Greenberg Traurig’s decision to drop Turkey comes after Mercury Public Affairs scrapped its $1 million contract with the Turkish government following a pressure campaign waged by the Armenian National Committee of America and the Armenian Assembly of America. Armenian-American activists want to deprive Turkey and Azerbaijan of support in Washington as Armenia and Azerbaijan battle over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Greenberg Traurig has lobbied for the Turkish government in Washington for years and renewed its contract — worth more than $1.5 million a year — in January, according to a copy filed with the Justice Department. Former Reps. Randy Forbes (R-Va.) and Al Wynn (D-Md.) were among the Greenberg Traurig lobbyists who represented the country, according to disclosure filings.
 
— The push to convince firms to drop Turkey and Azerbaijan is reminiscent of the campaign to force Saudi Arabia’s Washington lobbying and public relations firms to stop working for the kingdom after Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The Washington Post, where Khashoggi had been a contributing opinion writer, threatened to bar two lobbyists from writing columns for the paper unless their firms stopped working for Saudi Arabia — which the firms ultimately did.
 
— Aram Hamparian, the Armenian National Committee’s executive director, told POLITICO after Mercury dropped Turkey that he planned to pressure another lobbying firm, BGR Group, to stop representing Azerbaijan. But BGR said in a statement at the time that it “intends to continue its representation of Azerbaijan.” Instead, Azerbaijan has gotten more help in Washington. A limited-liability company based in Baku, Azerbaijan, Investment Corporation, hired two more firms, Portland PR and the S-3 Group, last month in support of the company’s work on behalf of the Azerbaijani government.
 
 
 

Armenpress: 3 civilians killed in intense overnight Azeri bombardment of Shushi and Stepanakert

Emil Lazarian

3 civilians killed in intense overnight Azeri bombardment of Shushi and Stepanakert

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 09:08, 6 November, 2020

STEPANAKERT, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. The peaceful settlements in Artsakh were again under heavy Azeri bombardment overnight November 5-6, leading to victims among the civilian population, the State Service of Emergency Situations of Artsakh said.

“The Azerbaijani-Turkish forces opened intense gunfire at the town of Shushi and the city of Stepanakert during the entire night. Several residential homes in Shushi were set ablaze as a result of the bombardment, and destructions occurred in the capital city as well. The rescue squads of the Artsakh State Service of Emergency Situations are working at the scenes. According to preliminary information three civilians were killed in the bombardments. Other details are being clarified.”

The total death toll among the civilian population of Artsakh since September 27 reached at least 53.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

12-month inflation in Armenia’s consumer market comprises 1.3%

Emil Lazarian

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 09:29, 6 November, 2020

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. The 12-month inflation in Armenia’s consumer market (October 2020 against October 2019) comprised 1.3%, whereas the inflation against the previous month – 0.5%, the Statistical Committee told Armenpress.

The yearly inflation of food products and alcohol drinks comprised 0.6%, the monthly inflation – 0.8%.

The consumer prices of clothing and shoes decreased by 2.8% in October 2020 compared to October 2019.

The 12-month inflation of apartment services, water supply, electricity, gas and other types of fuel comprised 0.3%, the one-month inflation – 0.1%.

The prices in the healthcare sector have increased by 2.5% within a year, whereas in terms of month no change has taken place.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan