Category: 2020

• The US and the Taliban have signed an agreement aimed at paving the way towards peace in Afghanistan after more than 18 years of conflict, reported BBC. The US and its NATO allies have agreed to withdraw all their troops from the country within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Taliban leaders attended the signing ceremony in Doha in Qatar. Talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are due to follow. Under the agreement signed in Doha, the militants also agreed not to allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to operate in the areas they control.

• Foreign Minister of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, at a meeting with OSCE Secretary General Stanislav Zas, expressed hope that the newly appointed Secretary General will contribute to the realization of the universal goals of the Organization. According to the press service of the RA MFA, the interlocutors discussed in detail the interaction within the CSTO, said ARMINFO. Pointing to the important role of Armenia in the security system within the framework of the CSTO, Mnatsakanyan noted that close cooperation between the participating countries plays an important role in improving the effectiveness of the structure, as well as jointly solving the challenges facing the Organization. The parties discussed a wide range of issues on the regional and international agenda.  During the visit, Zas also visited the Tsitsernakaberd memorial complex for the victims of the Armenian Genocide and paid tribute to the memory of the holy martyrs. 

• The Sumgait pogroms marked the beginning of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, when Azerbaijan responded to the peaceful appeal of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination with mass violence and pogroms of Armenians. This in fact also formed the essence of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: to ensure the security of the people of Artsakh through exercise of their right to self-determination, reads the statement issued by the Foreign Ministry of Armenia on the anniversary of the Armenian pogroms in Sumgait. As ARMENPRESS was informed from the press service of the MFA Armenia, the statement runs as follows, “Today we are commemorating the victims of the anti-Armenian pogroms in Sumgait. In the closing days of February, 1988, the Armenian population of Sumgait was subjected to mass killings and atrocities, perpetrated with unspeakable cruelty. The Sumgait pogroms marked the beginning of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, when Azerbaijan responded to the peaceful appeal of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination with mass violence and pogroms of Armenians.”

• The authorities’ refusal to give an interview to some media outlets may be linked to manipulative questions from journalists. Armenia’s Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Suren Papikyan, who also heads the “Yes” campaign headquarters for the upcoming constitutional referendum, stated this at a meeting with journalists, News.am said. Papikyan assured that he has never personally denied any media outlet for political reasons. Suren Papikyan added that he was ready to accept the invitation to participate in TV debates with representatives of the “No” campaign.

• Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan received a delegation led by Moldova Parliament Speaker Zinaida Greceanîi who has arrived in Armenia on an official visit. The Prime Minister welcomed Mrs. Greceanîi’s visit to Armenia, noting that high-level contacts and visits have recently been reciprocated by the two countries, which come to evidence that Armenia and Moldova are interested in developing and expanding bilateral cooperation in many areas, said The Prime Minister office.

• Nearly two years after resigning amid mass protests against his continued rule, Armenia’s former President Serzh Sarkisian went on trial on Tuesday on corruption charges which he rejects as politically motivated. Sarkisian stands accused of giving privileged treatment in 2013 to his longtime friend and businessman Barsegh Barseghian which cost the state 489 million drams (just over $1 million) in losses, RFE/RL’s Armenian Service (Azatutyun.am) reported. According to law-enforcement authorities, he made sure that a government tender for supplies of subsidized diesel fuel to farmers is won by Barseghian’s Flash company, rather than another fuel importer that offered a lower price. Sarkisian is standing trial together with Barseghian, former Agriculture Minister Sergo Karapetian and two other former Agriculture Ministry officials also indicted as part of the criminal case. All five suspects deny any wrongdoing.

• The Venice Commission has given approval to the model of a Constitutional Court which the Armenian authorities are now trying to re-establish, the leader of the ruling parliamentary bloc said today, commenting on plans to submit the proposed draft package of the constitutional reforms to the Council of Europe’s advisory body, TERT.am said. Speaking to reporters at the National Assembly, Lilit Makutns (My Step faction) described the political majority’s nationwide referendum plan as a real effort enabling the voters in Armenia to back the bill aimed at “re-establishing the universal trust” in the high court. But she did not rule out the possibility of their political team’s possible move to revise their decision.  ″The 2015 Constitution was submitted to all the international institutions. The Commission gave its approval to the model of a Constitutional Court which we are today willing to re-establish. Hence it would turn out that we are seeking a second opinion,″ the lawmaker noted.  

• Artsakh Republic President Bako Sahakyan together with Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan partook today at the joint meeting of the Security Councils of the two Armenian republics held in Stepanakert, PANORAMA.am said. As the information department at the President’s Office reported, in his speech President Sahakyan touched upon a range of issues on domestic and foreign policies, particularly, related to the recent foreign political developments, army-building, realization of a number of strategically important socioeconomic projects in the republic’s southern regions. Bako Sahakyan noted that the projects were ambitious, however, quite realistic, expressing his confidence that by joint efforts, systematic and consistent approach to the implementation of the activities, these projects would be brought to life.

Sources: https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/, https://armenpress.am, https://news.am/eng/, https://www.azatutyun.am/en, https://panorama.am, https://tert.am, https://arminfo.info/.

Relations between Russia and Turkey are growing more and more strained, and already some are sensing the advent of a prewar situation.  It is difficult to say how realistic such an evaluation might be, but rationality refuses to accept the probability of a large war, taking into account that Russia is a nuclear power, while Turkey is still a NATO member and such a confrontation could have global consequences.

But aside from this pessimistic scenario, the severe decline in the relationship between these countries, which is a fact, cannot but have an impact on our region.  Let us not forget that the South Caucasus in essence is the united belt of influence of the two nations: Azerbaijan is Turkey’s strategic ally, and Armenia is Russia’s.  One must consider that Georgia does not have friendly ties with Russia, whereas Turkey’s influence there is significant.

The current situation permits us to draw parallels with 2016, when the relations between Russia and Turkey were tense and against that backdrop the Four-Day Armenian-Azerbaijani war took place in April.

At this moment in Syria direct conflict between the sides has been registered, and mutual strikes between the “proxies” under their influence have become customary.  Events are developing rapidly, and making predictions is a thankless task, so let us try to observe this from Armenia’s vantage point.  Until then, a quick historical point.

All 12 Russo-Turkish wars share certain common features, which might recur if things continue under the worst-case scenario.  During virtually all the wars, both Russians and Turks have attempted to attack the other from the rear.  The Turks would use the Turkic-speaking peoples of Russia and generally the Muslims, who would foment rebellion in the rear.  That was particularly effective in the Caucasus wars of the 19th Century, even during the Russian-Chechen war when Turkey openly supported the Chechens.  The Russians would do the same, backing Ottoman Turkey’s Christians and moving them against the government.  It is axiomatic that in war one does not discriminate among means.

Important also is the two nations’ “sacral” moment:  the Turks’ historical homeland, Altay, is on Russian territory, while the Russians’ spiritual homeland is Constantinople.  But this already is a factor of the emotive domain, which also can have psychological effect.

As for our reality, can a possible Russian-Turkish war or even a nose-dive in relations circumvent Armenia?  Historical experience and the contemporary geopolitical mosaic suggest the probability of being pulled into such a conflagration.  It is noteworthy that, in the context of the deterioration of Russo-Turkish relations, for the first time in the recent period cross-border gunfire was registered between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The delicate situation in Syria has stood Turkey, Russia, Iran, and other players before a virtually insoluble problem.  In all likelihood, that is a trap from which there is no exit.  And from all
appearances the Greater Middle East has become a comprehensive knot of various frozen and burning conflicts which are firmly intertwined and carry a great potential of having a chain-reactive influence on each other.