Category: 2019

By Abdul Kerimkhanov

Relations between the U.S. and Armenia have sharply become colder. Washington cancelled the planned visit of Zohrab Mnatsakanyan to the United States, towards which the Armenian side had been working for a long time.

Recently, National Security Advisor to President John Bolton and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had a telephone conversation. During the conversation, Bolton asked if the decision to send a mission to Syria was final and inevitable, and received a positive response.

Although the Armenian Foreign Ministry is trying to alleviate the situation and in particular to receive an invitation from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to meet with Mnatsakanyan, but still without result.

It is not excluded that Armenia will seek the help of lobbyists for the organization of this visit. The Armenian ambassador in Washington is not in a very good position as well.

The United States has repeatedly warned Yerevan against the need to stay away from Russian force missions. Armenia’s former President Serzh Sargsyan perceived these warnings quite realistically and therefore did not succumb to the pressure of Moscow, which demanded that Armenia join its mission in Syria.

Nikol Pashinyan, because of inexperience and arrogance, sent to Syria a group of 83 so-called ‘specialists’. After this decision, the Russian media restored its negative attacks against Azerbaijan.

However, this is nothing more than a pyrrhic victory.

It was clear from the statement of the State Department that the United States was very unhappy with the dispatch by Yerevan of Armenian troops to Syrian Aleppo. Since the summer of 2018, the American side made it clear at different levels to the Armenian side that its appearance in Syria as part of the Russian mission is unacceptable.

Even the fact that Pashinyan’s meeting with Donald Trump, which had been prepared for several months, did not take place just in the light of these discussions, the Armenian PM tried to ignore, counting on his “revolutionary” charm.

A group of Armenian specialists in humanitarian demining, medical personnel and ensuring the safety of the specialists themselves, arrived in the Syrian city of Aleppo to provide humanitarian specialized assistance to the Syrian people on February 8.

Sending humanitarian contingent to Syria was announced in September 2018. PM Pashinyan called the humanitarian operation in Syria an Armenian-Russian humanitarian project unprecedented in scale.

The U.S. Embassy in Armenia issued a statement in which the U.S. State Department expressed its position on the Armenian humanitarian mission in Syria on February 13. Washington did not support any interaction with the Syrian Armed Forces, regardless of whether it is about providing assistance to civilians or is of a military nature.

The Foreign Ministry of Armenia responded to the statement of the State Department, stating that after a relative truce and establishment of security, Armenia intends to continue its contribution to the humanitarian mission.

By Abdul Kerimkhanov

Armenia again proves disinterest in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, announcing the need to return to the negotiating table the occupation authorities of Karabakh.

The leadership of Azerbaijan had certain hopes in connection with the arrival of the new authorities in Yerevan. Most likely, they were due to the guarantees of some geopolitical centers that the new government in Armenia will take bold and constructive steps.

Political technologist Vigen Akopyan recalls that a similar term was used by John Bolton during his visit to Yerevan. He considers this optimism was also transmitted to Azerbaijan.

As Akopyan said, Pashinyan wanted to understand for some time, what processes are underway in the negotiations on Karabakh.

‘‘But after meetings with Ilham Aliyev, in particular, in Davos, Armenian Prime Minister finally realized what expectations Azerbaijan had and how this correlated with the interests of Armenia,’’ said political technologist.

Nikol Pashinyan understood that Azerbaijan, in its ideas of mutual concessions, did not retreat a centimeter. He might have held political consultations on this issue, including with some partners.

After that, the position of the Armenian Prime Minister sharply tightened. It immediately caused confusion in Azerbaijan.

Now Yerevan declares that it cannot talk about any concessions until Azerbaijan shows that it is also ready for such steps. Moreover, Armenia makes illogical statement saying that talks with Azerbaijan on the whole package of issues should involve separatist regime of occupied Karabakh.

Besides, Armenia’s current opposition accuses Pashinyan of lack of information, experience and knowledge about the Karabakh conflict.

The conclusion is that the Armenian society is interested in the current status quo and does not intend to take any constructive steps to resolve the conflict.

However, Azerbaijan will not give up its principled position on Karabakh. Baku stands on the position that conflict should be resolved only on the basis of the norms and principles of international law, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan must be restored and four resolutions of the UN Security Council must be implemented.

Azerbaijan is the most stable state in the region. It is stronger for the economic and military mean. Baku is looking for and is seeking the friendship of Moscow, Washington, Tehran and is the closest strategic ally for Ankara.

Azerbaijan’s military budget is growing, military-technical cooperation is developing, all new countries are involved in it, including CSTO members.

Nikol Pashinyan and his team, having a high level of popular support, should compromise with Azerbaijan and thereby contribute to resolving the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Only, in this case, democracy has a chance to overcome finally nationalism in Armenia.