According to official data, [incumbent President] Vladimir Putin won a victory, gaining more than 76 per cent of votes and breaking his own record in doing so in the [March 2018] presidential election in Russia.
Putin not going to put up with West’s growing presence in post-Soviet countries
Putin’s popularity was also boosted by his coherent policy, which showed historic and geopolitical claims to the fractions of the Soviet Union in the shape of former Soviet republics.
Putin’s 18-year long presidency has shown that he does not want to come to terms with the West’s growing presence in the post-Soviet area and the pro-Western lurches of the satellite countries. From his point of view, his aggressive moves in Georgia in 2008 and those in Ukraine since 2014 were meant to make an example. The latest sanctions against Russia are indicative of exacerbation of the struggle for spheres of influence.
It is clear that the conflict between the two poles has always had an impact on Azerbaijan, which has been able to evade turning into the arena of open confrontations. Will the [incumbent President Ilham] Aliyev administration be able to preserve the existing balance in view of Vladimir Putin’s election as president [for a fourth term in office]?
Azerbaijan needs ‘neutrality’ in strained relations between West, Russia
Director of the Atlas Strategic Research Centre Elhan Sahinoglu told Turan that despite the fact that Putin was re-elected, this victory would cost him a lot: “The West is sure to toughen sanctions against Russia and the scandal over [the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia in Salisbury] has turned up the heat even stronger. Sanctions against Putin and his entourage are having a negative impact on the country’s economy and the social situation, which the population is in. In the past, US think tanks developed and put into practice different plans aimed to annihilate the Soviet Union. And they eventually managed to achieve their goal. At present, think tanks are designing plans to weaken Putin and Russia.”
The pundit emphasised that strained relations between the West and Russia should make no impact on Azerbaijan.
“Russia is our neighbour, which Azerbaijan maintains good relations with, despite the fact that Moscow shows support for the occupier of our territories. However, these normal relations do not imply that Azerbaijan should show support for Russia in its conflict with the West. We should maintain neutrality. As for Azerbaijani officials, they should support rectification of relations between the West and Russia. Other types of statements might do harm to Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, some MPs dub Western sanctions unjust, creating the impression that Azerbaijan supports its neighbour. Seeing this, Moscow might think that official Baku fears it and might increase pressure. Apart from this, MPs should know that sanctions against Russia are linked to the annexation of Crimea, which is an analogy of [the conflict over Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno]-Karabakh. Therefore, showing support of the kind for Russia, some MPs indirectly turn a blind eye to the occupation of Karabakh,” Sahinoglu emphasised.
If pressure increased, Russia might lose Azerbaijan
The expert thinks that after the consolidation of Putin’s positions in the role of president, Russia will be able to put pressure on Azerbaijan at a later stage, if it strengthens relations with Europe. However, this pressure is not going to be strong.
“All the projects, which Azerbaijan is implementing in the region such as TAP [Trans-Adriatic Pipeline], TANAP [Trans-Anatolian Pipeline], and the Southern Gas Corridor are an alternative to Russian [projects] and are carried out bypassing Russia. The same can be said about the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line, which connects Asia and Europe via Baku. The given projects meet our national interests. In the future, Russia might place some pressure on Azerbaijan. If that is the case, we should speed up our integration in the West. This does not imply that following Ukraine’s and Georgia’s example, we should set ourselves a goal to join Nato or the EU, as this is sure to further strain our relations with Russia. However, if Russia’s pressure increases, we should protect ourselves, increasing cooperation with our allies – Turkey and the EU countries. This is precisely why we need to take efforts to sign a strategic agreement with the EU before the end of the year. Russia should realise that if it increases pressure on Azerbaijan, it might lose it like it lost Ukraine and Georgia,” the expert emphasised.
Russia needs no settlement of Karabakh conflict
Sahinoglu ruled out the scenario of Russia’s mediation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
“Azerbaijan can strengthen strategic partnership with Russia under only one condition: Russia should influence the Armenian authorities, ensuring the liberation of the five occupied districts at the least. However, in the near future, this is unlikely to happen. Putin was again elected as president and his attitude to Karabakh is not going to change. He takes no interest in settling the Karabakh conflict. He said so to Turkish President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan. Being president of Russia, [incumbent Russian Prime Minister] Dmitry Medvedev wanted to settle the Karabakh conflict. He organised 10 meetings between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents. However, Putin hindered this. Russia has always shown support for Armenia, using it against Azerbaijan. This policy is not going to change. That is why I do not expect Vladimir Putin to influence Armenia and speed up the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The thing is that with the help of the conflict, Russia is holding Armenia in check, being also able to exert influence on Azerbaijan. Without the Karabakh conflict, relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey will become normalised and Russia will lose its last foothold in the Caucasus,” the expert said.
Rapprochement with Russia to harm Azerbaijan
According to the pundit, Azerbaijan is facing no danger of sanctions on the West’s part for purchasing a big amount of weapons from Russia.
“Because of the Karabakh conflict, we need to have many weapons. Unfortunately, Western countries except Israel choose not to sell weapons to Azerbaijan. Because of Karabakh, there is an unspoken embargo on supplying weapons to Azerbaijan and Armenia. Therefore, we have to purchase weapons where we can. Over the past several years, Baku has bought from Russia weapons worth 5bn dollars. However, the budget of the current years does not envision purchase of weapons from Russia. This implies that Azerbaijan is reducing imports of weapons from Russia and the West can see this. Apart from this, in contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan is economically open to not only Russian market, but also those of other countries. For the time being, our main trade partners are precisely Western countries such as Italy and so forth. Rapprochement with Russia might damage Azerbaijan, making us dependent on Moscow,” Elhan Sahinoglu summed up.