Category: 2018

Armenia-Artsakh relations at the level of political leaders have faced a rather complicated and fraught examination. The news about the resignation of Artsakh Defense Forces Commander Levon Mnatsakanyan and the processes hidden behind it will be a test of the strength of RA-NKR relations and the political maturity of the leadership.

President of Arasakh Bako Sahakyan arrived in Yerevan and met the Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with Although the two-sentence press release contains a lot of generalities, the real purpose of the visit, according to our information, is to discuss the situation at the highest level.

The negative sediment of elections

Although the extraordinary elections to the National Assembly in Armenia ended with the overwhelming victory of the “My Step” alliance led by Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the negative consequences of the snack statements made during the election process are felt until now.

I am talking, in particular, about Pashinyan’s teammate Sasun Mikayelyan It is about harsh assessments from the official circles of Artsakh in response to the well-known statement that “the velvet revolution was more important than the victory in the Artsakh war”. They were followed by Nikol Pashinyan’s equally harsh public reaction, coupled with the urge to NKR President Bako Sahakyan to “call the representatives of the (Artsakh) government to order and send them to do their work”. Of course, Pashinyan apologized for Sasun Mikayelyan’s statement, but with his harsh reaction, he also showed that “those cannot judge” his teammate.

Perhaps, in this respect, Pashinyan differed little from the RPA, which he did not accept so much, whose leader Serzh Sargsyan during his power years, ignoring the negative public sentiments, defended ambiguously perceived figures in every way. The principle of intra-team solidarity and political expediency prevailed over the imperative of solidarity with the public. This way of working eventually broke the work of all channels to find a common ground with the public, which was the reason for the April-May revolutionary processes.

The new authorities of Armenia are perhaps at this moment “swimming” in legitimacy and have no problem being in solidarity with the public. This is a temporary phenomenon, especially if the way of working of the former is adopted, eroding public trust, and sometimes devouring it, despite mistakes, to protect one’s teammate at all costs and to attack those who criticize him.

Anyway, in order to overcome the tension related to the criticism of Sasun Mikayelyan’s statement and Pashinyan’s harsh reaction, according to our information, two envoys were sent from Armenia to Artsakh in those days: the secretary of the National Security Council, a native of Artsakh Armen Grigoryan and his uncle, chief military inspector of the RA Defense Ministry Movses Hakobyan: They were received quite coldly in Artsakh and others spoke in a strict tone. The mission of the envoys failed, the situation continued to escalate to such an extent that Levon Mnatsakanyan threatened to write a resignation letter. Artsakh President Bako Sahakyan arrived in Yerevan to discuss the situation at the highest level.

Didn’t write a resignation letter?

Until now, the denials of rumors about the resignation of Levon Mnatsakanyan from Artsakh are also ambiguous and unclear. Spokesman of Bako Sahakyan David Babayan does not deny or confirm these rumors, only urging to be guided by official information. “For any information, you should visit the website of the President of the Republic of Artsakh and be guided only by official information. we never hide anything from the society,” he wrote on his Facebook page, thus not denying that there are internal disputes in Artsakh that could lead to Levon Mnatsakanyan resignation.

Lieutenant General Levon Mnatsakanyan, the commander of the Defense Army of the Republic of Artsakh, who was appointed to that position in 2015, also addressed the news spreading at lightning speed. He said in a conversation with Tert.am that he did not write an application to be released from his position. “I am not aware of anything yet,” he said, commenting on the rumors about his dismissal.

“Hraparak” newspaper, referring to the topic, notes that instead of Levon Mnatsakanyan, the commander of the Artsakh Defense Army will be appointed. Karen AbrahamyanChief of the General Staff of the Army. “There is talk that the Secretary of the National Security Council Vitali Balasanyan and the advisor to the president Arshavir Gharamyan will also say goodbye to their positions. In other words, those who responded to Sasun Mikayelyan’s statements and received Pashinyan’s anger,” the newspaper notes, adding that the new RA authorities see former Artsakh Prime Minister Arayik Harutyunyan as Bako Sahakyan’s successor.

They are unhappy in Artsakh

Rumors about the possible resignation of Levon Mnatsakanain continue to be actively discussed in social networks and the press. Most commentators express regret, but there are those who agree, noting the importance of rotation of top officials. At the same time, they do not clearly state whether Mnatsakanyan’s possible change is due to the importance of rotation or because of strong reaction to the words of Armenia’s first-team teammate in Artsakh.

In other words, it is still not clear whether the motives for the possible dismissal of a high-ranking military officer are purely personal ambitions or the result of a competent professional calculation and well-thought-out personnel policy. This is an extremely important issue, because it takes tens of years to train an officer like Mnatsakanyan, and in Artsakh and Armenia there are not many officers of similar quality, that is, officers with academic education, military skills and war experience.

At the same time, they are dissatisfied with the created situation in Artsakh. “Pashinyan tries to subordinate everything to him. He strives not to react to his and his teammates’ statements or actions, even if they are clearly wrong, and tacitly take them into account. This is a matter of personal ambitions, as a result of which, unfortunately, the army and Artsakh may be weakened,” says our source from Artsakh.

At the same time, the situation around Artsakh is also uneasy. Adrebjan continues to arm himself, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavorvn will visit Baku these days and the co-chairs are waiting for the resumption of Yerevan-Baku negotiations at the highest level. The pause in the process was also caused by the internal situation created in Armenia. After the National Assembly elections, it was dissolved, and the new authorities led by Pashinyan received a 70 percent vote of confidence. And the president of Azerbaijan? Ilham Aliyev expresses optimism that favorable conditions have been created for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

Our sources from Nikol Pashinyan’s circle report that he is more radical in the matter of Artsakh than the previous authorities. Pashinyan has repeatedly insisted on this, noting that Armenia should not call for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem with monetary concessions, until Baku says what compromises it is ready for.

In that case, the question arises: why is the relationship with the leadership of Artsakh strained after the NA elections and it is pushed out into the field of public discussions? Is this just a matter of ambitions, damage, or are there really military figures in Artsakh who have gone through the war, who do not want to accept the dominance of the new authorities of RA, although they enjoy the support of the public, but do not have a “combat past”?

Anyway, a military expert Karen Vrtanesyan, who is one of the ruthless critics of Pashinyan’s government, believes that the most important thing for Nikol Pashiyan and his “Civil Contract” party is power.

“It is for this reason that the success of the April coup in KP is more important than the victory in the Artsakh liberation war,” he says, adding that only Artsakh and its military-political leadership can prevent Pashinyan from establishing complete dominance and becoming uncontrollable after the NA elections, as a result of which he received a 70% confidence mandate. “Therefore, it is natural that after the National Assembly, Nikol’s next targets will be the army and Artsakh,” he says.

The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that there is a dialogue between Yerevan and Baku, and it is being conducted. According to him, it is obvious.

He made such a statement during the press conference, commenting on the joint statement of the Foreign Ministers of the two countries within the framework of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the OSCE and the meeting of Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev within the framework of the CIS Summit.

Zakharova noted that the dialogue exists, an official statement is not needed here. “Russia, based on the role of the co-chairs, will actively contribute to achieving the main goal of positive dynamics,” he said.

Answering the question that the call implies preparing the population of the two countries for peace, he noted that it is a whole set of concrete steps that should be worked out, and the parties and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs should deal with it.

Talking about whether the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be discussed during the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Baku, Zakharova stressed that the settlement of the conflict is always one of the central topics during the visits and contacts of the Foreign Minister to the region.

“It is always discussed both in Yerevan and Baku. This is a basic topic. Russia is one of the co-chairs of that process,” Zakharova concluded.

Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin discussed the issue of gas supply from Russia to Armenia and its price in St. Petersburg. Garegin Baghramyan, Acting Minister of Energy Infrastructures and Natural Resources of RA, said this in a briefing with journalists, confirming the rumors.

He noted that at this stage the negotiations are still ongoing because there is no agreement.  Baghramyan also mentioned that if the negotiations are not completed by the end of the year, the contract will be automatically extended. “The contract will be extended until the negotiations are completed. As long as there is no agreement, what we have today will remain,” he emphasized.

Accordingly, it is too early to talk about the gas price today. The minister only mentioned that, naturally, “they are negotiating to reduce the price, no one is negotiating to raise it.”

To the question whether the price of gas will be maintained after January or will it become more expensive, the minister answered: “Yes, it will be preserved. Until the negotiations are completed, the price will be maintained.” He emphasized that an increase in the gas price in January is excluded.