Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition Press
Friday
Armenia – post-revolutionary syndrome and victorious maneuvers
by ASTNA.biz
Two days earlier, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed at a mass rally in front of his supporters with a report on 100 days of his reign, where he reported on his fight against corruption, his foreign policy and military plans.
Before that, on September 8, Pashinyan had talks in the Kremlin held talks with Putin and discussed the problems that appeared after the velvet revolution between Armenia and its historical ally Russia. All these important news, united in time, once again attracted close attention of observers to the events in Armenia, which can be designated by the traditional name – post-revolutionary syndrome.
Today in Armenia happens exactly the same what happened after every great revolution, such as the Great French 1789, or Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1917. Mass protests and the overthrow of the old regime should be followed by the purging of the enemies of the revolution, civil war and wars with neighbors. All participants in the events are full of emotions and hyperactivity, it is difficult to get anything consistent and rational out of their statements and actions. The strategic goals of the revolution, which Pashinyan and his comrades-in-arms announced on coming to power, looked contradictory and difficult to fulfill:
a) combating corruption and building a developed rule of law state;
b) strengthening the sovereignty of the country (reducing dependence on Russia) and European integration;
c) Victory in the war with Azerbaijan and the annexation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands to Armenia.
On September 11, at a rally dedicated to the 100 days of the new government, Pashinyan successfully reported on the fight against corruption and oligarchs from the old government who plundered the country and turned it into a vassal of Russia. However, there was nothing to say about the successes in achieving the other two goals.
How to move towards Europe without distancing from Russia; such a geometry has not yet been invented. How to win the Karabakh war, while refusing from the Russian protection? How to save the country from the oligarchs, which are closely connected with the Kremlin, which already owns all commanding heights, both in the economy and in the defense sphere of the country? It seems that it was much easier to make a revolution than to rule a post-revolutionary country.
Critics of the new government have already begun to point out Pashinyan’s contradictory statements and his team members about the government’s plans and progress in implementing reforms.
For example, the new Minister of Defense, David Tanoyan, said last month that Russian border guards will be withdrawn from the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders, and replaced by Armenian border guards. Of course, such a concrete action to reduce dependence on Russia worried the Kremlin, and it which immediately threatened to impose an embargo on some agricultural products from Armenia. Pro-Russian circles in Armenia immediately raised the alarm that Pashinyan wants to leave Armenia without a true historical ally and, in general, Russia should not be angry.
It is noteworthy that Pashinyan very quickly reacted and tried to improve the situation, saying during his last visit to Moscow that “The protection of the Armenian-Turkish border and the Armenian-Iranian border by Russian border guards will continue, since it helps Armenia very much”. It is not known how much Moscow is able to trust such a turn in the position of Armenia.
In his interview to the radio Echo Moskvy, Pashinyan described the issues he discussed at the meeting with Putin:
– 102 the Russian military base in Armenia exists in the interests of Armenia’s security and will continue to function.
“The threat of war with Azerbaijan is growing, and Russia has every opportunity to keep Aliyev from the war.
– The protection of the Armenian-Turkish border and the Armenian-Iranian border by Russian border guards “will continue, as it helps Armenia very much”
– We hope that Russia will help us build another nuclear power plant.
In addition, Pashinyan said in an interview with Echo that “the Constitution will be changed so that Armenians from the Diaspora, including Russian, could serve in the governmental structures of Armenia.” And the parliamentary elections “can be held in October, and in November, and in December. Until May.” All this sounds quite realistic, it is not clear just how with such a course on deepening cooperation with Russia it will be possible to implement another course for European integration.
It is not so easy to cope with the “enemies of the revolution.” Despite the loud exposure of the crimes of former leaders of the country who grossly abused power and the arrests of influential corrupt officials from the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), the opposition in Armenia is not going to put away weapons so soon. Of course, because the parliament, the state apparatus and the army are to a large extent still composed of members and clients of the Republican Party of Armenia. Besides, the active support of the members of the old regime by the Kremlin makes it very difficult to fight against them.
Former Armenian President Robert Kocharian (1998-2008) arrested (28.07.18) for organizing the shooting of a peaceful demonstration, was released (13.08.18), probably under the pressure of Moscow. After 3 days, Kocharian stated about his return to politics. Obviously, around the figure of Kocharyan will gather all sorts of opponents of the new course.
Yet the main argument of Pashinyan’s critics is his policy of European integration and the weakening of dependence on Russia, which could lead to Armenia’s loss of Karabakh. Pashinyan and members of his team are declared agents of Western influence, nurtured and educated on Soros’ money. That is, Pashinyan is represented as the second Saakashvili, the anti-Russian policy, which led to the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In addition, the fight against corrupt oligarchs in the country has already led to the fact that many of them began to curtail their business and withdraw their capital from Armenia …
The results of large-scale 4-day maneuvers Shant-2018, on which the actions during the alleged war with Azerbaijan are being worked out, will be closely studied and commented on by military experts. For the time of maneuvers, the whole country was transferred to a “conditional martial law”. “At the heart of the scenario of maneuvers is the worst option to prepare better,” Pashinyan said yesterday, while visiting the Armenian Defense Ministry. The scenario assumes the development of actions to receive a significant number of refugees. Attention is also paid to the work of local self-government bodies, which should work harmoniously together with the army and state apparatus. The scenario of Shant-2018 takes into account the actions of the leadership and the Armed Forces of Artsakh, for, as Pashinyan stated, “Armenia is the guarantor of Artsakh’s security, and this conditional war is obviously connected with the Karabakh problem.
The Chief General Staff of the country Artak Davtyan stated, “according to the scenario, Armenia returns conditionally lost territories … The frontier zone was shelled by enemy artillery, wounded and dead. “Armenia suppresses firing points”. In short, on the paper, Armenia won …
In our view, the Shant-2018 maneuvers had several objectives:
First, strengthening the country’s defense capability, the low level of which worried the Armenian strategists, especially after the 4-day war in 2016.
Secondly, Shant-2018 was Pashinyan’s timely response to the assertions of his opponents that the new government is going to surrender Karabakh to Azerbaijan and rush to Europe.
And of course, the maneuvers are designed to raise the spirit of the population, to inspire the hope that Armenia will be able to withstand resources that are much superior to Armenia. As in other revolutions, crises, the country needs a victorious war. Well, if not war, then – victorious maneuvers.
So, despite the contradictory nature of the goals, the revolutionary government of Pashinyan managed to stay in power for the first 100 days. Moreover, Pashinyan is very popular. Sociological polls show that about 74% of the population are ready to vote in the parliamentary elections today for the Movement he leads. But it is not clear what will happen in six months, when the population will begin to demand a concrete improvement in the standard of living. After all, it will be difficult to achieve such an improvement with the current controversial program. Revolutionary enthusiasm is not eternal. We can say that the further the elections are postponed, the more Pashinyan will have to face great discontent in the elections.