Category: 2018

Alexander Avanesov. A number of intellectuals of Armenia and Russia call on Russian and Armenian societies establishing a new discussion platform.

In the Statement received by ArmInfo, in particular, it is noted that Russia and Armenia have developed centuries long relations. “During this time, our peoples experienced together the bitterness of losses and the joy of victories. We also had difficult periods of mutual misunderstanding and distrust, fortunately, they were short. But our countries, our peoples always had an ineradicable sense of justice and a desire to preserve peace and trust.

This is all the more relevant now, when in international relations signs of instability, intolerance and unpredictability are growing, many regional conflicts are becoming aggravated and hardening “, the message says. The document also notes that both Russia and Armenia must be strong in order to overcome external and internal challenges to their sustainable development. It is not by chance that at all stages of independence Russia and Armenia supported each other, which is confirmed by joint participation in the CIS, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In such a situation, only joint, bilateral and multilateral actions can be productive. “However, this is not enough, especially now. It is vitally important to establish and maintain informal contacts between representatives of both states from the most diverse sectors of scientific, cultural, government and social activities, as well as business structures. The more extensive and regular such contacts are, the higher will be the level of mutual trust between the public and state organizations of Russia and Armenia, the societies of our countries. As an informal, free and permanent platform for meetings and exchange of views, we, as representatives of different field of the socio-political, economic and cultural life of Russia and Armenia, are taking the initiative to set up a new discussion platform for deepening the dialogue between our civil societies. We suggest calling it the “Lazarev Club” in the name of Armenian benefactors Lazarevs, the founders of the Lazarev Institute of Oriental Languages in Russia, which became the forerunner of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University and of the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Affairs of Russia) “, the statement reads.

The Club is expected to become a voluntary association of citizens of Russia and Armenia who will work jointly to support the Russian-Armenian public dialogue at various levels, establish, maintain and strengthen working, business and scientific contacts, encouraging interaction and mutual enrichment of the cultures of our peoples. It is also planned to carry out joint public-political initiatives and projects, freely share private and expert opinions on the most pressing issues of bilateral relations, conduct expert and analytical assessments of the state and prospects for the development of bilateral and multilateral relations in the Caucasus region. The club’s task will also include holding collective meetings of club members to discuss topical issues of regional and global politics, economics, issues of history and culture, meetings of bilateral working groups, joint participation in scientific, social and cultural events organized by partner organizations concerning relations between Armenia and Russia, bringing the results of joint research, appeals and proposals to the highest level of executive and legislative power of both states, leadership of leading international organizations.

“Lazarev Club” will conduct its work publicly and openly, by organizing meetings, “round tables” and public hearings in Russia and Armenia. We hope that the meetings in the Club will help form a positive attitude for further constructive work to strengthen mutual trust and allied cooperation for the benefit of the peoples of our countries, in the interests of ensuring security and stability throughout the Greater Caucasus region.

The Russian-Armenian Lazarev Club is open for cooperation in the interest of fostering dialogue, developing and strengthening people’s diplomacy for the benefit of the peoples of Armenia and Russia, both with state and public organizations and with private individuals, the message reads. The statement was signed by the Head of the Board of Directors of the AVILON Group of Companies Kamo Avagumyan, journalist Roman Babayan, public figure Zori Balayan, deputy of the National Assembly Artashes Geghamyan, State Duma MP Konstantin Zatulin, Ambassador of the Russian Federation Vladimir Kazimirov, President of the Tashir Group of Companies Samvel Karapetyan, Chairman of the Public Council of Armenia Vazgen Manukyan, Member of the Council of Federations Nikolay Ryzhkov, State Duma Deputy Vyacheslav Nikonov, State Duma Deputy Artur Chilingarov, Director General of the Mosfilm Studio Karen Shakhnazarov and others.

Karina Melikyan. The World Bank has updated the outlook for Armenia’s foreign trade in 2018, accelerating import growth to 16.9% and slowing export growth to 9.1%, from previously projected 10.3% and 10.1%, respectively. This is noted in the October report of the WB “Macroeconomic Development of Armenia“. For 2019, the World Bank forecasts the growth of exports by 8% in Armenia’s foreign trade, while imports will grow by 11.8%, against the previously forecasted 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively. For 2020, the World Bank predicts export growth by 7.9%, and imports – by 9.2%.

The share of net foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP, according to the new forecast of the World Bank, in 2018 will be 3% (against the previous 4.4%), in 2019 – 3.5% (against the previous 4.5%), and in 2020 – 3.9%. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP in 2018 and 2019 will remain at the level of 3.8% (versus the previously forecasted 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively), with a decrease in 2020 to 3.7%. The deficit of the state budget of Armenia in GDP, according to the new forecast of the World Bank, from 2.6% in 2018 will decrease to 2.4% in 2019, with a further decrease to 2.2% in 2020. The poverty level (at purchasing power parity – PPP – $ 5.5), according to the new forecast of the World Bank, can reach 38% in 2018 with a decrease to 35.9% in 2019 and 34.9% in 2020, and in PPP $ 3.2 poverty may decrease in 2018- 2019 from 9.8% to 8.6% with a further decrease in 2020 to 7.6%. The previous forecast of the World Bank provided for higher rates: the level of poverty (with PPP of $ 5.5) in 2018 – 38.2% with a decrease to 36.8% in 2019, and in expectation of PPP of $ 3.2 by the level of poverty in 2018-2019 from 10.1% to 9.1%.

The growth of private consumption, according to the updated World Bank report, will amount to 6.7% in 2018, with a slowdown in 2019-2020 from 6% to 4.6%, against the previously forecasted 5% in 2018 and 4.7% in 2019. In gross investment in fixed assets, the new WB forecast provides for an increase in 2018 by 15.2%, with a slowdown in 2019 to 14% and in 2020 to 9.9%.

Armenia’s economic outlook remains generally positive. Prudent macroeconomic policies, low inflation, and favorable terms of trade will continue to support economic expansion. Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 5.3 percent in 2018, reflecting strengthening headwinds in Armenia’s main trading partners. Inflation will edge up but remain within the CBA target range, while the current account deficit will widen on account of a higher import bill. Subject to robust structural reforms- which the new government has committed to undertake to create a fair and competitive business environment- growth in the medium term is projected to average 4.5 percent, with investment providing a major contribution. Commitment to the fiscal rule, which puts a cap on debt at 60 percent of GDP but also introduces operational rules at lower public debt levels, will result in a smaller fiscal deficit. Consequently, public debt (including CBA debt) is projected to fall from 58.9 percent of GDP at end-2017 to 55 percent by 2020. As the economy continues to expand and create income generation opportunities, especially in sectors that employ low-skilled workers (such as agriculture), poverty will continue to recede. The expected growth of the Russian economy in the coming years, albeit modest, should help sustain the flow of remittances to Armenia, pushing poverty rates down further. Current projections have the absolute LMIC poverty rate reaching 7.6 percent in 2020; when the international poverty rate (IPL) is forecast to fall below 1 percent.

Growing regional and global risks could undermine Armenia’s medium-term growth prospects. These risks include a stronger-than-forecast economic slowdown in Armenia’s key trading partners (primarily Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran) and a decline in global copper prices in response to rising global trade tensions, which would highlight Armenia’s limited diversification and crimp growth. Domestically, political risks remain high, reflecting growing tensions as the policy initiatives of the new administration are challenged by the opposition. Uncertainty also surrounds the date and format for the snap parliamentary elections announced by the new government. Failure to produce tangible results in a reasonable timeframe that address widespread socio-economic problems- such as limited job opportunities and the perception of a lack of rule of law and rampant corruption-potentially risks reactivating domestic tensions. The materialization of any of these risks will negatively impact Armenia’s ability to implement the bold structural reforms that are essential for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. However, the peaceful revolution of April-May 2018 did not disrupt the positive trends in Armenia’s macroeconomic indicators. Although political developments in 2018 put some pressure on the exchange rate, a quick resolution and prompt central bank reaction maintained stability. So far, spillovers from the turmoil in the Russian Federation and Turkey have been contained. The banking sector indicators point to a high system-wide Capital Adequacy Ratio (18.2 percent at end-June 2018), manageable levels of non-performing loans (6.3 percent in June, unchanged from a year earlier) and recovering profitability, but also vulnerability to external shocks. Driven by dram-denominated lending and supported by falling bank lending rates, credit growth accelerated to 18 percent y/y at end-July. Deposit growth expanded by 7 percent y/y, also driven by dramdenominated deposits. Dollarization ratios remain high at around 60 percent.

To note, in 2017, Armenia’s GDP grew by 7.5%, while the agricultural sector was in a 4% decline, the industrial sector showed an 8% growth, and the services sector – a 10.5% growth. Private consumption has grown by 8.8%. Gross fixed investment increased by 7.3%. Exports showed an increase of 23.2%, while imports – by 24%. Y-o-y inflation was 1%. The ratio of the current account deficit to GDP was 1.7%, the share of net foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP was 4.1%, the deficit of the state budget of Armenia in GDP was 4.7%, and the share of state debt in GDP was 58.8%. The poverty level in 2017 was 39.9%, having decreased from 43.5% in 2016.

Ani Mshetsyan. The first results of Nikol Pashinyan’s foreign policy are worrying, the Former Minister of Defense of Armenia Vigen Sargsyan wrote on his Facebook page. He, in particular, noted that 6 months, especially in the “post-revolutionary” conditions, is a short period. They can still point to the “old” authorities and “their conspiracies”, the society can still be asked for indulgence, referring to the “inexperience of the team.

The former minister of defense also noted that everyone is familiar with the feeling when after a few minutes it becomes obvious that the film being watched becomes uninteresting. “Unfortunately,” New Armenia’s” foreign policy resembles such an uninteresting and annoying film. I write these words to Pashinyan against the background of his American fiasco, which became clear during presidential Adviser on National Security John Bolton’s visit to Armenia. For the first time the goal of Armenian – US dialogue was informing of one side about the benefits of the other rather than mutual interests. It seemed that Bolton was not an Adviser to the US president, but an adviser to the Prime Minister of Armenia, who turned out to advice what to do and what not to do. It was only unclear why the Prime Minister did not recall the statement made by him in Moscow – not to interfere in each other’s internal politics, “the former Defense Minister wrote.

Sargsyan also summarized the visit of Bolton. “Armenia should get rid of its ” historical patterns”. Bolton actually repeated not only the statements of Azerbaijan that Armenia itself was to blame for its blockade, but justified Turkey for closed borders, for Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh issue. In addition, he also noted that Armenia not only should not expect assistance from the United States, but even investments, “Sargsyan stressed. As the former Minister of Defense noted, in the best case, investments may come from representatives of the Armenian community of the United States.

Sargsyan also wrote that in the words of Bolton that Armenia, finally, should become self-consistent and independent, bearing in mind the relations of Yerevan with Washington. Obviously, this concerned the strategic relations of Armenia with Russia. “The United States does not deny that they sold and will probably sell weapons to Azerbaijan. If you wish, you can switch from Russian weapons to American ones, but the US is absolutely not interested in how much it will cost the Armenian budget. As for Iran, Armenia has no alternative than applying US sanctions. A statement was made from the territory of Iran, a neighboring and friendly state, that the circle around Iran is narrowing. Of course, this is a very tactful reminder of partnership relations with Armenia, “the former defense minister noted .

Sargsyan stressed that from the point of view of diplomacy, it is important not only the content of statements, but also circumstances such as time and place, and until recently, the partners of Armenia were very attentive during meetings with Armenian colleagues in the territory of Armenia, as well as in the matters of statements related to neighbors and allies of the country. “What exactly has freed their hands in” New Armenia “? I hope not “black counter-revolutionaries “, and not” proud people “,” the former defense minister said.

The former minister said he did not know what was said behind closed doors. But, based on what is in the open press, “one can guess and be horrified by how in just 6 months we have turned from a country leading a balanced policy into a country in which foreign diplomats do not even think about the interests of Armenia. ” ” I don’t think that Bolton’s wording has anything to do with the Karabakh negotiation process. Usually these statements are made before the meeting and even before the visit. Consequently, these approaches reflect the position of the United States in response to the change of power in Armenia and the new foreign policy arising from it, “the politician noted. Sargsyan said that being involved in all international meetings of the Armenian leadership for 15 years, he does not remember a single case when American partners would call into question the strategic partnership between Armenia and Russia. “But I remember the special call of Vice President Joe Biden to President Sargsyan, in which the latter noted that the United States is receptive to the decision of Armenia to enter the EAEU “, Sargsyan stated. “What gives Bolt reason to think that it is possible to speak with Armenia in the language of” concessions,in exchange of open borders. “I hope not the speech of Prime Minister’s wife Anna Hakobyan on the Artsakh border. Bullets cannot be turned into jewels, bullets and weapons are needed at the border, they are needed for the state , independence and security, even in the safest country, especially in our region. Challenges to our security do not begin with Artsakh and do not end there, “the former minister said.

As for the American and Russian weapons, the former defense minister noted that Russian weapons, which are not inferior in quality to the American ones, Armenia bought from Russia at domestic price, being a CSTO country on favorable terms, besides the country has the necessary technical base for weapon service. According to the former Minister of Defense, in order to properly apply for weapons, it is advisable to buy them from one country. “And another equally important question regarding Russia is why should it give or sell weapons to Armenia at a reduced price if Armenia purchases it at a market price in another country? I have no doubt that Bolton was very aware of all this,” Sargsyan said.

According to the former minister, in the words of Trump’s representative there was not an offer to Armenia to buy American weapons, but an excuse for selling weapons to Azerbaijan. And in matters of servicing American weapons, Azerbaijan will be helped by Turkey, which has a lot of experience in this. “Meanwhile, I wonder if Bolton will call on Azerbaijan to become ‘independent’, implying its strategic cooperation with Turkey,” Sargsyan asked.

The former minister stressed that the US sanctions against Iran are not the first in these relations, and Armenia has always managed to find a balance while maintaining friendly relations with Iran and the requirements of international law. “The American partners always approached our vital interests with understanding. From the statements on the visit, and not only, we learned that in the near future Armenia could be involved in anti-Iranian policy, which poses a threat not only to Armenia, but also to the entire region” Sargsyan said, associating with this the statement of Pashinyan about the revelation of drug dealers in Syunik.

Sargsyan stressed that representatives of the American administration were often stingy regarding the assessment of the Armenian Genocide. “Sometimes they called on Armenia to continue efforts to restore relations, for which they highly appreciated the efforts and political will of the Armenian leadership. But instead of calling on Turkey to recognize its history, as President Obama did in Ankara, Bolton’s call on Armenia to break free of “historical patterns” is a new and undesirable phenomenon for us in the US policy. I am sure that the Armenian communities of the USA and the lobbyist structures will mark this, “the former minister stressed, wondering what was Armenia’s interest in Bolton’s visit to Armenia. “We should ask Nikol Pashinyan about this. I could not see it in the public part of the visit,” Sargsyan stressed.

“Mr. Pashinyan does not put blame for the failures in foreign policy on those involved in this field. They are not revolutionaries and not counter-revolutionaries. When taking important decisions, they should be listened to, and not the adventurers who build barricades on the streets and divide society into black and white. The mistakes made in this area are difficult to overcome. Basically, you are responsible for foreign policy. In this area you are constantly destroying what has been created for decades. If you don’t immediately correct the situation, the possibilities of professionals will continue huddle, as in the last six months. Of course, it’s good that you are trying to be accessible to people, but your ministers, ambassadors and advisers are people too. Receive them and listen to them, “concluded Sargsyan.

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 27, ARMENPRESS. A concert dedicated to Charles Aznavour, the legendary French-Armenian crooner who died on October 1 at the age of 94, will take place 19:30 October 29 and October 30 at the Yerevan Opera Theater. The concert is titled For You, Aznavour.

Armenian singers and musicians will perform Aznavour’s songs, the culture ministry told ARMENPRESS.

Jérémie Delvert from the French military choir will be the concert’s guest performer.

Delvert was part of the French Guard of Honor at the state funeral of Aznavour in Paris. He performed the Armenian Waltz song in Armenian during the funeral.

Edited and translated by Stepan Kocharyan