States News Service Friday E5P FUND PROVIDING 2 MILLION TO LANDFILL IN ARMENIA LONDON The following information was released by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD): By Loretta Martikian EBRD-managed fund to provide grant for construction of EU-compliant facility Supporting Armenias effort to become greener, the E5P fund is co-financing the construction of a new landfill for solid waste for the Gegharkunik and Kotayk regions with a 2 million grant. The EBRD, which manages the Eastern Europe Energy Efficiency and Environment Partnership fund (E5P), and Armenias Ministry of Finance signed the relevant agreement today. The grant will support the construction of a new landfill with modern solid-waste management processes, covering the collection and disposal of municipal solid waste. It will provide major environmental and social benefits for local residents. Work on the project started in December 2014 when the EBRD committed a 3.5 million loan, which was complemented by a 3.5 million grant provided by the EU Neighbourhood Investment Facility. The EU-compliant solid-waste management system will cover eight municipalities, seven in the Kotayk region and one in the Gegharkunik region. The project was expanded in 2016 with an additional 2 million sovereign loan from the EBRD. At present it covers all seven municipalities in the Kotayk region (Hrazdan, Abovyan, Nor Hachn, Byureghavan, Charentsavan, Eghvard, Tsakhadzor) and all five municipalities in the Gegharkunik region (Sevan, Vardenis, Gavar, Martuni, Chambarak). It is the EBRDs first solid waste project in Armenia and supports the governments plans to modernise and upgrade the countrys waste management system to European standards. The E5P grant of 2 million will complement the additional 2 million EBRD loan and co-finance transfer stations, waste collection and transfer trucks, waste containers and other specialised equipment. The total project cost is 11 million. E5P is a multinational fund managed by the EBRD. The EU is the largest donor and Armenia is also a contributor to the Fund. Angela Sax, Acting Head of the EBRD in Armenia, said: We are very grateful to the E5P donors especially the European Union and Sweden and the government of Armenia as well as the local municipalities for our successful cooperation. The E5P grant is a very important contribution to this project, which will bring much-needed improvements in waste management infrastructure. It will complement the EBRDs loan financing and ensure the successful continuation and completion of the project. Ewa Manik, E5P Principal Fund Manager at the EBRD, added: The project will bring substantial benefits to residents and the environment, will have a strong demonstration effect and will help to develop better public awareness of the benefits of anti-littering measures and recycling. The EU Ambassador to Armenia, Piotr Switalski, emphasised: The EU is the main contributor to the E5P Fund. This project is part of the larger support that the EU is providing to Armenia in the waste management sector. To date, we have committed 22.4 million in non-refundable grants, which shows the importance the EU attaches to environmental issues in the country. Our support is provided through five different projects in Kotayk, Yerevan and Vanadzor as we are co-financing with partners such as the EBRD, EIB or KfW. Since the start of its operations in Armenia, the EBRD has invested over 1.1 billion in 158 projects in the countrys financial, corporate, infrastructure and energy sectors, with 88 per cent of these investments being in the private sector. Background information on E5P The E5P is a multi-donor fund operating in the Eastern Partnership countries of Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The European Union (EU) is the largest overall contributor to E5P, with committed funds of 70 million. For E5P in Armenia, the EU has committed 10 million, which is boosted by additional commitments from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Sweden and from the Taiwan Business-EBRD Technical Cooperation Fund. The pledged funds are to help Armenia improve energy efficiency, contributing to energy security, economic competitiveness and policy dialogue, while having a positive impact on the environment. Armenia is also a contributor to E5P, with committed funds of 1 million. The main objective of the initiative is to use grants to leverage loans from international financial institutions for municipal energy efficiency and environmental projects such as the rehabilitation of water and wastewater systems, solid waste management, street lighting and the insulation of public buildings.
Category: 2017
Sports: Hrachya Poghosyan defeats Azerbaijani wrestler in Dortmund
A1 Plus, Armenia
July 1 2017
Greco Roman style wrestlers today have started their fights at the European Junior Wrestling Championships underway in Dortmund.
At 50 kg weight category Ashot Mkhitaryan though lost ¼ final, gained victory in consolation fight and will fight for the third place.
60 kg weight category Hrachya Poghosyan gained two victories at the beginning, defeating also Azerbaijani wrestler Kamran Mirzaliyev. Unfortunately, in the semi-final he lost to Georgian wrestler. He will also fight for the third place.
The same happened with Malkhas Amoyan (74 kg), who in the semi-final lost to the Ukrainian wrestler Elmar Nuraliyev with 1:4 score and became candidate for bronze medal.
At 96 kg weight category Arthur Mkhoyan lost to Turkish wrestler in the first fight.
Sports: Armenian bookmaker takes bets on Henrikh Mkhitatryan’s relationship with Lopyreva as engagement rumors mount
Panorama, Armenia
July 1 2017
One of Yerevan-based bookmakers has started taking bets on Armenian national team captain and Manchester United midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan’s possible marriage with Russian TV host Victoria Lopyreva, who is also the official ambassador of the FIFA World Cup 2018 in Russia.
Rusarminfo reports, the odds for the marriage until the end of 2018 are 12, while the opposite outcome is at odds of 1.01.
The rumors about Mkhitaryan’s relationship with Lopyreva came after the Russian visited Armenia, and the pair was seen pictured in Yerevan on couple of public occasions.
The betting odds suggest Armenians seem do not believe in Mkhitaryan’s possible engagement with the Russian TV host.
Sports: Mkhitaryan’s best form was worth the wait
Manchester United, UK
July 1 2017
01/07/2017 11:25, Report by Steve Bartram
Manchester United’s history is replete with tales of instant impacts, of homegrown youngsters bursting to prominence or new signings slotting seamlessly into their new surroundings.
From the Busby Babes to Zlatan Ibrahimovic, a long line of players have strolled into the first team and, without breaking stride, walked the walk at Old Trafford. For Henrikh Mkhitaryan, it has been a different story.
The Armenian arrived from Borussia Dortmund last summer without worldwide renown, but with a reputation built in football’s outposts and cemented in the Bundesliga. Upon joining United, his name was known well enough to provoke unanimous excitement; hipsters nodded their approval, tipsters beamed in anticipation.
Then came the twist: Mkhitaryan’s first start came in September’s Manchester derby, from which he was removed at half-time as United were collectively overrun in a disjointed first period. He didn’t resurface for another start until late November, following dual battles with injury and assimilation, prompting widespread clamour for Jose Mourinho to use the Armenian more often.
“There was no bad relation with him [Mourinho],” Henrikh later revealed. “It was always good but the problem wasn’t him, it was me.”
Such candour and accountability are seldom aired in public by footballers, but then Mkhitaryan is a rarity in many ways. A studious thinker, keen chess player and proficient in seven languages, he has also had to overcome a personal tragedy the scale of which befalls few: the death of his father during his formative years.
MY FATHER, MY IDOL
Hamlet Mkhitaryan was an Armenian international striker plying his trade with Valence in France’s second tier before he was diagnosed with a brain tumour at the age of 32. When he passed away a year later, Henrikh was seven years old. “The year after my father died, I started football training,” United’s no.22 has revealed.
“He was the drive for me, he was my idol. I said to myself: ‘I have to run just like him. I have to shoot just like him.’ By the time I was 10 years old, my entire life was football. Training, reading, watching, even playing football on PlayStation. I was totally focused on it. I especially loved the creative players — the maestros. I always wanted to play like Zidane, Kaka and Hamlet.
“If he was still alive, maybe I would be a lawyer or a doctor right now. Instead, I am a footballer. Many people back home in Armenia tell me that I look exactly like my father when I run. They say: ‘Henrikh, you look the same, you run the same. You remind me so much of Hamlet when I watch you.’ I wouldn’t know because I can’t stand to watch myself, but it makes sense. I first dreamed of running free on the pitch by watching the videotapes of him after he was gone.”
ADJUSTING TO GERMANY
Football wanderlust gripped Henrikh in his early years, and after a successful and influential four-month stint training with Sao Paulo as a 14-year-old, he moved away from Armenia permanently at the age of 20. He joined Ukraine’s Metalurh Donetsk, then Shakhtar Donetsk two years later, and his goal-laden form with the latter alerted the eagle-eyed scouts of Borussia Dortmund.
An impressive debut season under Jurgen Klopp preceded a disastrous second term in the Bundesliga, both personally and collectively, but the arrival of Thomas Tuchel at the start of 2015/16 heralded a renaissance for the artful Armenian.
“It was a very hard period for me,” said Henrikh, of his second campaign. “I put a lot of pressure on myself. I had many hard nights in my apartment in Dortmund, all alone, just thinking and thinking. I didn’t want to go outside, even to have dinner. But fate can be interesting. Thomas Tuchel came to Dortmund and he changed everything for me. He came to me and said, “Listen, I want to get everything out of you.” I thought he was just trying to make me feel better. I was doubting his words. But he looked at me very seriously, and said, “Micki, you are going to be great.”’
A year on, those words proved prophetic as Mkhitaryan was named the Bundesliga Players’ Player of the Season, hitting 23 goals in all competitions and assisting another 15 as Tuchel’s swarming side thrilled audiences everywhere. A major part of the transformation had been the manager’s method of appealing to Henrikh’s intellect, urging him to discover his own solutions within the pages of W. Timothy Gallwey’s book, The Inner Game of Tennis: The Classic Guide to the Mental Side of Peak Performance. “It’s like it was written especially for me,” Mkhitaryan later admitted.
MOVING TO MANCHESTER
Though he had rediscovered and raised his best form in Germany, the gifted Armenian was unable to resist the lure of testing himself in English football. With just a year remaining on his contract, Dortmund had little option but to comply when United put in a substantial bid for the then-27-year-old.
While Ibrahimovic and Paul Pogba arrived amid huge fanfare last summer, there was a greater sense of unknown over Mkhitaryan. His name was more familiar than that of fellow new recruit Eric Bailly, but Henrikh’s capture provided the greatest source of intrigue among observers. Hence, when he disappeared from the first-team picture throughout the autumn, idle speculation began over his future at Old Trafford.
Dortmund were credited with an interest in taking him back on loan, but the point of Mkhitaryan’s Manchester derby disappointment had been largely missed. If he had enough faith to start Henrikh in a fixture of such magnitude, then Mourinho had already been convinced of his ability. Time and patience were required by all parties as those abilities were readied for English football.
Looking back, Mourinho recently said: “Mkhitaryan was completely open and understood the difference between me and other coaches he had. He worked a lot without playing, but he worked a lot to try to reach the level.”
FINDING HIS FEET AT UNITED
The hard graft eventually paid off. Henrikh’s second start, a 4-0 Europa League win over Feyenoord, yielded the man-of-the-match award, as did his third, against West Ham in the EFL Cup. His fifth yielded his first goal, a high-speed slalom effort against Zorya Luhansk, while his sixth brought his first Premier League goal, a resoundingly-taken winner against Tottenham.
After the latter, the tributes began to flow. “He’s such a quality player, he’s got so many attributes,” said Michael Carrick. “He’s so clever and so talented and he’s such a nice lad, his attitude is top class.” Fellow midfielder Ander Herrera added: “Now we are seeing the best Mkhitaryan. Or almost the best because I think he can be even better.”
A sprinter’s pace and a chess player’s brain, allied to astonishing vision and incision; Henrikh’s attributes are plain for all to see, and their gradual integration to United’s approach under Jose Mourinho has already made for some thrilling moments this term – none more than his third Reds goal, a flabbergasting scorpion kick against Sunderland on Boxing Day which moved the manager to gush: “It was phenomenal. All his career he has scored beautiful goals. It was a great moment and for him very important, with the feeling that people love him at Old Trafford. That is a very important feeling for him.”
FIRST-SEASON REFLECTIONS
With Mkhitaryan starting, United lost only twice after his full debut against City; the 10-man FA Cup defeat at Chelsea in which he was substituted with the game goalless, and in the Premier League loss at Arsenal which was bookended by the prioritised Europa League semi-final against Celta Vigo.
He ended his maiden campaign in England with 41 outings and 11 goals, winning United’s Goal of the Month award five times in six months and notching crucial efforts in the Reds’ triumphant Europa League campaign, including the trophy-clinching second against Ajax. After a slow start, the Armenian became one of the season’s sleeper hits, and he is determined to retain his hard-earned importance to the cause.
“I was thinking that I would be here as a starting line-up player but when I arrived I saw that there were 25 players fighting for their place and I understood that it wasn’t going to be easy,” he admitted.
“I had a bad game against Manchester City but that is in the past so I kept working. Now I understand why I have got my chance and I will keep it, I will hold it, because it is very important for me to play, to be a part of Manchester United.”
Music: Michael Mayo in Yerevan and Gyumri
A1 Plus, Armenia
July 1 2017
American jazz vocalist Michael Mayo and Armenian jazzman Armen Hyusnunts are touching upon the concert due in Yerevan Cafesjian sculptures’ park at 20:00 on July 1st.
Jazz evening will be held in Gyumri National Dramatic Theatre after Achemyan on July 2 at 19:00 with the participation of Michael Mayo, Armen Hyusnunts and Armenian national jazz band. Entrance is free.
To remind, on the occasion of 25th anniversary of Armenian-American friendship American cultural tour is kicking off. During the upcoming two weeks film screening, jazz and reading will be held in Yerevan and other regions.
Music: Why This Composer Made Melodies Out of Mountainsides
The Smithsonian
By
smithsonian.com
At the turn of the twentieth century, the countries of Europe and their neighboring empires were entering into a period of intense ethnic awareness. Nations were on the brink of a revolutionary upheaval that would redefine their borders, both geographically and psychologically, paving the way for two World Wars and the ‘age of nationalism.’
For Eastern nations, like Armenia, situated on the cusp of East and West, the same search for identity, the answer to the question What is Armenia?, was further complicated by the jockeying of neighboring empires.
Ethnomusicologist Sylvia Alajaji, author of Music and the Armenian Diaspora: Searching for Home in Exile writes that, by the turn of the century, “two ‘Armenias’ were in existence.” Having experienced a formal “carving up” a century earlier between Russian, Persian and Ottoman Empires, Armenia was less a unified nation of like-minded people than it was an ethnic population, scattered across competing empires.
It was divided not only geographically, between East and West, but also by class – between the rural, agrarian peasants who occupied the expansive countrysides, and the intellectual elite in the cities.
Up to that point, the traditions and particularities of Armenia’s large peasant population had been for the most part disregarded by the upper classes. Many urbanites had considered peasant life base and degenerate, but the villages, isolated and untouched by the effects of globalization and modernity, offered a unique opportunity to search for the authentic ‘national spirit’ when the need finally arose. Folk music in particular, the simple songs passed down orally in villages, became a fetishized object of this new movement.
The late nineteenth century saw it become increasingly vogue for musicians to look to the rural countrysides for inspiration. Composers like Jean Sibelius in Finland, Edvard Grieg in Norway and Antonín Dvořák in present-day Czech Republic, gained notoriety for incorporating indigenous musical idioms into their Western-style compositions. Most famously, Hungarian composer Béla Bartók ventured out into the field to collect peasant songs, what he considered the pure sounds of Hungary, and later came to be regarded as a national icon for doing so.
But what does the pursuit of a national identity look like for the Armenians, a people struggling to choose between East or West? And how did music reconcile (or intensify) that schism?
Komitas Vardapet, an Armenian priest and musicologist from Constantinople who traveled across Anatolia collecting and analyzing the music of rural communities, was in many ways similar to Bartók. He received his musical education in Berlin and used his Western training to create a national tradition. He spoke a number of European languages, including French and German, and his primary goal was to promote Armenian music in the West.
Though not a prolific composer, his nearly three thousand transcriptions of folk songs (only around 1,200 are in circulation today) are responsible for developing Armenia’s national style of music. From the vibrant harmonies of beloved Soviet classical composer Aram Khachaturian to the genre-defying tinkerings of jazz-fusion pianist Tigran Hamasyan, the songs he collected continue to form the basis of modern Armenian repertoire to this day.
But if Komitas represented Armenian music in the West… who was the face of Armenian music in the East?
Grikor Suni was a composer and musicologist born in the Russian empire (modern day Nagorno-Karabagh), descendant of a long line of Armenian troubadours. His formal musical education took place in the East, where he studied composition at the St. Petersburg Conservatory of Music under famous Russian composer Rimsky-Korsakov. Suni never completed his degree, but like Komitas, he was relentless in his efforts to promote Armenian music to foreign audiences.
During his time studying Armenia’s liturgical music at Etchmiadzin Cathedral, Suni studied under Komitas and later wrote in his autobiography that he was inspired by his teacher’s openness to folk music. He would go on to spend four months each year devoted to traveling the Armenian countrysides, collecting nearly five hundred songs along the way.
Unlike Komitas, however, Suni was also an outspoken political figure. From a young age, he was affected by the growing socialist movement in Tsarist Russia and later matured into a fervent spokesperson for the Bolshevik movement. This juxtaposition of interests was evident throughout his life. His efforts to document the music of peasants were often accompanied by collections of militaristic fight songs with names like ‘Voices of Blood’ and included lyrics like “Rise up laborers with muscular forearms. Strike the anvil with your hammer. Crumble the old and build the new. Death to this dark system of capitalism, and long live Socialism.”
Due to the political nature of his work, Suni was continually under the threat of arrest and, despite being an Armenian nationalist himself, he was frequently persecuted by – none other than – competing Armenian nationalist groups, divided in their idea of what a modern Armenian nation would and should look like.
He fled to the United States in 1925 and lived out his remaining days in exile, but his music, now dispossessed from its country of origin, suffered a tragic fate. Armena Marderosian, Suni’s granddaughter-in-law who led a project dedicated to preserving and publishing his music and writings, wrote, “His commitment to political activism resulted in his music being repressed wherever his politics were out of favor.” Suni’s work fell into obscurity for several generations, and it wasn’t until Soviet musicologist Robert Atayan discovered his music in the mid-eighties, well after “Kruschev’s Thaw” (the period of time after Stalin’s death that allowed for a looser cultural policy) that interest in his work, and its implications for the development of Armenia’s national music, was pursued with great intention.
Suni had been deeply influenced by Rimsky-Korsakov’s interest in developing a nationalist style of classical music, and he sought to pioneer one for Armenia by, like Komitas, gentrifying the songs of peasants. Whereas Komitas did so by preserving stylistic elements, like vocal trills and irregular meters, Suni was known to go a step further, incorporating underlying symbolism in his arrangements.
In his setting of the folk song, Alagyaz, for example, Suni quite literally drew a relationship between the melody and the mountain range after which the song is named (the range that is today called Mount Aragats). In a text published four years after Suni’s death, one of his students revealed Suni’s notes on the melody, in which Suni makes an explicit analogy between the peaks of the mountain and the melodic contour. The result was a score that visually traced the mountaintops in the paper notation.
For Armenians, being from the topographically diverse Caucasus region, mountains have historically held enormous meaning, particularly in the villages, where they engendered a shared sense of place. Mountains are a constant theme in folk culture and appear in many songs, like Sareri Hovin Mernim (‘For the Mountain Breeze I’d Die’) or Saren Kooga Dziavor (‘A Horseman is Coming from the Mountain’), but by literally building the geographical formations of the region into the musical score, Suni took this symbolism to new heights.
The irony, however, is that despite the efforts nationalist composers went to in order to demonstrate their national styles, the reality is that what you end up hearing bears very little resemblance to the music of rural peasants. In fact, Bartók himself is quoted to have said that “The only true notations [of folk songs] are the recordings themselves.”
Today, any audio recordings of Armenian villagers that may have been made at that time are now lost, but the comprehensive work of Komitas can be found at the Komitas Museum-Institute in Yerevan, which houses a number of collections of his folk song transcriptions and original compositions.
As for Suni, few resources exist today celebrating his efforts. His politics presented obstacles wherever he went. In the East, he was a threat to the Russian Tsar. In the West, his ties with Russia made him dangerous to Ottoman forces. Even amongst his own Armenian compatriots, his music was not welcomed, for his Bolshevik tendencies did not align with their ideas of a free and independent Armenia. (Though later in his life, he was enraged to discover these nationalists had appropriated a number of his revolutionary fight songs for their cause, keeping the melodies but changing the socialist lyrics.)
And finally, when Suni’s dreams of a Soviet Socialist Armenia finally realized in 1922, he was all but deserted by the one group that should have embraced him, because by the time of his death in 1939, it was official Soviet policy under Stalin to omit from nationalist narratives any cultural or political figures who had fled to the West, even out of self-preservation.
His was work which, even now, cannot easily find a home, because the question remains: To which Armenia does it belong? It was the ability of music to navigate this complex and delicate territory, that gave composers such revolutionary power at the turn of the century, for they became the unlikely mediators between East and West, between rich and poor, between villages and cities, and between melodies and mountainsides.
Music: Narek Hakhnazaryan to perform at the first edition of “Armenia” international music festival
Panorama, Armenia
July 1 2017
Armenian world-known cellist Narek Hakhnazaryan announced about his upcoming performance with State Youth Orchestra in Yerevan.
“As you can see I am back to Armenia, to my beloved Yerevan. I am very excited to be playing on July 5th at Aram Khachaturian Concert Hall on “Armenia” international music festival. I will be playig pieces by Alexey Shor and Camille Saint-Saëns,” Hakhnazaryan said in a video message, posted by the Armenia Music Festival Facebook page.
To note, an International music festival and competition called “Armenia” will be held in Yerevan for the first time from July 4 to 12. The organizers of the festival and competition are the State Youth Orchestra of Armenia (SYOA) and European Foundation for Support of Culture.
Pianists up to 34 years old will have a chance to compete in this competition. The total prize fund of the competition is 20 000 Euro (the 1st prize – 10 000 Euro, the 2nd prize-5000 Euro, the 3rd prize- 3000 Euro and special prize-2000 Euro).
The jury of the competition consists of 5 famous musicians and performers from different countries. In the competition, Armenia will be represented by Professor Armen Babakhanyan, a famous Armenian pianist.
Armenian President receives Georgian Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development
Armenpress News Agency, Armenia Thursday Armenian President receives Georgian Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development YEREVAN, JUNE 29, ARMENPRESS. President of Armenia Sewrzh Sargsyan receives on June 29 Georgian Minister of Economy and Sustainable DevelopmentGiorgi Gakharia. The President of the Republic welcomed the guest highlighting his visit to Armenia and the business forum held in the sidelines of the visit, which, according to the President, will give new impetus to the development of bilateral trade and economic relations. As “Armenpress” was informed from the press service of the Armenian President’s Office, the interlocutors shared the opinion that the high level partnership in political, economic and humanitarian aspects between Armenia and Georgia during the 25 years of independence, as well as the friendly relations between the two peoples serve as firm grounds for further deepening and enhancing interstate relations. The Armenian President and the Georgian minister discussed the opportunities of developing bilateral trade and economic relations and implementation of a number of mutually beneficial joint ventures. The sides highlighted mutual assistance for entering to the markets of the 3rd countries and implementation of joint exports. The sides shared the opinion that Armenia and Georgia, being involved in different integration units (Armenia as EEU member state and Georgia as EU associated country) have great potentials to develop partnership also in the sidelines of the mentioned integration units.
Armenian leader: We welcome "constructive" criticism
news.am, Armenia Armenian leader: We welcome "constructive" criticism [Armenian News note: the below is translated from Armenian] Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has said his political team is ready to work with all constructive forces in a civilised manner, News.am website reported on 29 June. "We are ready to work with all constructive forces within the framework of executive and legislative powers, local governments and even outside them. The only precondition that we set for such cooperation is the preservation of the norms of courtesy and goodwill. By the way, I would like to mention that criticism is not viewed by us as violation of these norms, especially if it is constructive and aimed at improving the situation," the website quoted Sargsyan as saying at a government meeting. The president reiterated his trust in Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan and his cabinet, expecting them to solve all the country's problems "with honour". Commitment to transparency He said that transparency would be one of the most important criteria for the government. Sargsyan underscored that the government's main goal should be the elimination of corruption and protectionism. "Today we are introducing new and rather efficient methods of fighting corruption and these methods should be combined with our committed work," Sargsyan was quoted as saying. Sargsyan also touched on the importance of keeping people informed of every step taken by the government. He noted that the government has achieved success with those reforms, which it presented to people in detail. "No matter how painful these changes were, people clearly realised their necessity and accepted them. Maybe they did it reluctantly at first, but they accepted it in the end. Members of the cabinet should never be reluctant to present what they do to the society," Sargsyan was quoted as saying. The president added that the coalition government formed by the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnakstutyun is capable of solving all the tasks set before the country.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Risks Of Regional Escalation To Keep A Lid On Conflict
Business Monitor Online
Thursday
Nagorno-Karabakh: Risks Of Regional Escalation To Keep A Lid On Conflict
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia remain extremely elevated, and the number of armed incidents involving heavy weapons has risen sharply in 2017. However, due to the balance of power, the risk of a full blown war remains relatively low, as both Russia and Turkey would not risk being dragged into a proxy conflict with one another.
BMI View: Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia remain extremely elevated, andthe number ofarmed incidents involving heavy weaponshasrisen sharply in 2017. However, due to thebalance ofpower,the risk of a full blown war remains relatively low, as both Russia and Turkey would not risk being dragged into aproxyconflictwith one another.Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia will remain high over the coming years, and while the risk of the conflict escalating into a all out war remains relatively low, it has risen over the past few months. A brief flare-up in April 2016 between the two countries, leaving over 200 casualties, pushed the two sides further apart, destroying much of the peace negotiation progress made over the past decade. In addition, in the first half of 2017 there have been a number of armed incidents in the heavily militarised and contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, involving heavy artillery and missiles. These skirmishes have the potential of escalating the conflict, in particular as the fighting often takes place in close proximity to populated areas. As a result, we have lowered BMI’s short-term political risk score for Azerbaijan slightly to 65.0 out of 100 on account of a lower score in the security and external threats subcategory ( see chart below).
Security Environment Constant Drag
Azerbaijan – Short Term Political Risk Index & Component, Out of 100
Source: BMI. Note: 100 is the best score available, zero the worst.
The 2016 conflict was the bloodiest confrontation in the frozen conflict since the 1988-1994 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which left over 20,000 casualties and hundreds-of-thousands displaced persons. We note that although a ceasefire was reached, a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan was never signed, as the main source of volatility and centre-point in the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh, was never resolved. The region remains occupied by the Armenian armed forces and therefore violates the UN Security Resolution 884 of 1993.The Minsk Group, a sub-organisation of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation (OSCE), co-chaired by France, the US, and Russia, oversees the peace negotiations, but has made little progress over the past several quarters. Russia remains the most involved mediator in the region with the ability to bring the two sides to the negotiating table. However, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been growing increasingly distrustful of Russia, as Moscow has been selling arms to both sides since the 2016 conflict, complicating matters further. In our view, this reduces the chance of any groundbreaking progress in the peace negotiations over the coming years.The peace negotiations mainly focus on the creation of buffer zones in the seven regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. However, since the 2016 escalation, active peace negotiations between the governments in Baku and Yerevan have completely ceased, and both sides are limiting their communications to threatening public statements. In addition, Azerbaijan is increasingly resorting to international law for its claim on Nagorno-Karabakh and attempting to win over regional peers, as the region remains internationally recognised a part of Azerbaijan, as the UN resolution proclaims. As a response, Armenia continues threatening to occupy the remaining area between Armenia and the region to reassert its claims (the vast majority of the population are ethnic Armenians). Changing Balance Of Power Preventing Escalation Although the Soviet Union sided with Azerbaijan against Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the balance of power in the region has changed since. Armenia has been part of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) since 2014 and is host to a Russian military base on its territory. This greatly diminishes the risk of an Azerbaijani-led invasion of Armenia, despite its military superiority over the latter. Both countries spend over 4.0% of GDP on defence, but due to Azerbaijan’s rapid growth over the past decade on the back of its large oil and gas industries. This has led Baku to outspend its neighbour by a factor of seven to one ( see chart below).
Azerbaijan With Clear Superior Capabilities
Caucasus – Military Expenditure, USDmn
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, BMI
Azerbaijan is currently not seeking membership in either the EEU nor the European Union (EU) or NATO, and will unlikely to do over our forecasting period to 2026. We note that although Baku has approached the EU in regards to a security, trade, and investment agreement, it lacks the political reform willingness Brussels demands. This means a rapprochement between the two remains extremely unlikely over the medium term. Instead, Azerbaijan is a close ally of Turkey, which has vowed to unconditionally support Baku’s claim. However, Turkey would not risk to be dragged into an armed conflict with Russia over Nagorno-Karabakh, while it also remains pre-occupied with its conflict against Kurdish separatists and its military involvement in Syria. As a result, the current balance of power does not allow for an escalation of the conflict, as it would not be in neither Russia’s nor Turkey’s interest.