Author: Zargarian Hambik

FORUM 18 NEWS SERVICE, Oslo, Norway

The right to believe, to worship and witness
The right to change one’s belief or religion
The right to join together and express one’s belief

========================================== =====
Thursday 20 December 2007
AZERBAIJAN: PASTOR THREATENED WITH JAIL FOR ALLOWING CHILDREN IN CHURCH

Police in Azerbaijan’s second city Gyanja have threatened Adventist pastor
Elshan Samedov with prison, if he refuses to ban children from attending
worship services and does not halt worship in two church-owned properties.
"People don’t have the right to meet for religious purposes just where they
want," Major Alovset Mamedov told Forum 18 News Service, "they need to have
permission." Mamedov "threatened to imprison me for turning people into
Christians," Samedov stated. "He violates our rights to worship God – and
he insulted my personal dignity. Who gave him the right to violate my
rights?" Major Mamedov demanded that Pastor Samedov sign a statement that
he would prevent children from attending services in future, but he refused
to do this. Following a separate raid in the capital Baku, police tried to
pressure eight Adventists into giving up their faith and fined them under
the Administrative Code for holding meetings "not connected with the
conducting of religious rituals with the aim of attracting young people and
youth."

AZERBAIJAN: PASTOR THREATENED WITH JAIL FOR ALLOWING CHILDREN IN CHURCH

By Felix Corley, Forum 18 News Service <;

Police in Azerbaijan’s second city Gyanja [Gäncä] have threatened a
Seventh-day Adventist pastor Elshan Samedov with prison, if he refuses to
ban school-age children from attending worship services and does not halt
worship in two of the three church-owned properties in the city. "People
don’t have the right to meet for religious purposes just where they want,"
Major Alovset Mamedov of the police Criminal Investigation Department told
Forum 18 News Service from Gyanja on 19 December, the day after he
interrogated and threatened Samedov. "They need to have permission – and
this needs to be recorded in the religious organisation’s statute."

Pastor Samedov complains of the threats from Major Mamedov during the
interrogation. "He threatened to imprison me for turning people into
Christians," he told Forum 18 from Gyanja on 19 December. "He said he could
find ‘witnesses’ to testify against me, plus they have photo and film
‘evidence’. Maybe this wasn’t a real threat, but he certainly wanted to
intimidate me. He violates our rights to worship God – and he insulted my
personal dignity. Who gave him the right to violate my rights?"

However, Major Mamedov vigorously denied making any threats. "I didn’t
threaten the pastor – I have no complaints against him," he claimed to
Forum 18. "I just told him to act in accordance with the law."

The threats to Pastor Samedov followed a visit to his church by a police
captain on 8 December, the same day that 13 police officers raided an
Adventist service in the capital Baku. In the wake of the Baku raid, eight
church members were held for five hours, insulted, threatened and fined
(see F18 News 10 December 2007
< e_id=1059>.

"We don’t know if the raids in Baku and Gyanja on the same day are
connected," Adventist leaders told Forum 18 from Baku on 19 December.
"However, it is notable that two days later, the opposition paper Yeni
Musavat and the television station ANS both had libellous material accusing
us of being connected with Armenians." Azerbaijan and Armenia are involved
in a long-running conflict over the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Adventists told Forum 18 that they have been present in Azerbaijan for
about 110 years and currently have about 700 baptised adult members in the
country. They say they have about 200 baptised adult members in Gyanja,
with children of members also attending worship. They say that all children
who attend worship services have permission from their parents to be there
and in the overwhelming majority of cases the parents are present in
services also.

As is their normal practice, no officials of the State Committee for Work
with Religious Organisations in Baku were available on 19 December to
explain to Forum 18 why a second Adventist community is now facing threats.

The police captain who visited the Gyanja church during worship on 8
December later wrote a report to the head of the city police’s Criminal
Investigation Department alleging that the presence of children at the
service was illegal, Pastor Samedov told Forum 18.

During the three-hour interrogation on 18 December, Major Mamedov accused
Pastor Samedov of allowing children to attend church. "Children should be
attending school on Saturday," Mamedov told Forum 18. "There’s a city
instruction that children aren’t allowed to attend the mosque or any other
religious venue in school time."

However, Pastor Samedov insisted to Forum 18 that as elsewhere in
Azerbaijan, only about a tenth of Gyanja’s schools still have lessons on
Saturdays, the day Adventists mark as their holy day. "All those who
attended on 8 December when a police captain visited were children who did
not have school on a Saturday."

Major Mamedov demanded that Pastor Samedov sign a statement that he would
prevent children from attending worship services in future, but he refused.
"I explained to him that parents bring their children along with them –
they do this voluntarily," he explained to Forum 18. "How can we ban them
>From doing this?"

Police have previously directly targeted children who attend the church.
In a November 2004 raid on a worship service, police arrested and
interrogated two leaders, fining and threatening one with deportation, and
connived at a local TV crew conducting hostile interviews with children
against the protests of their parents. Firdovsi Kerimov, local
representative of the State Committee for Work with Religious
Organisations, who took part in the interrogations and hostile TV
interviews of children, claimed to Forum 18 at the time that "everything
was done in accordance with the law" (see F18News 22 November 2004
< e_id=458>).

Major Mamedov told Pastor Samedov that services can only take place in the
property where the church’s legal address is registered, not in two other
church-owned properties. Mamedov claimed that this is because the church
has not listed all three addresses of its churches in the city in its
statute registered with the State Committee for Work with Religious
Organisations. "I’ve read their statute and it doesn’t give this
information," Mamedov told Forum 18.

The Adventists say that the Gyanja church’s statute was registered in 2002
and that the church bought the two other properties in 2003. They say the
statute defines the territory of the church’s activity as "the city of
Gyanja" and that the local authorities know that the church holds services
at all three church-owned meeting places. The Adventists also point out
that under Azerbaijani law, they also have the right to hold meetings in
private homes and at other locations such as cemeteries.

In a charge frequently levelled at Protestant Christians in Azerbaijan,
Mamedov also accused the Adventists of paying people to convert to
Christianity. "The Adventists give 35 shirvans to each person who attends –
they have massive funds," he claimed to Forum 18. (A shirvan is a popular
name for 2 Manats, thus the sum represents 70 Manats [462 Norwegian Kroner,
58 Euros or 83 US Dollars].) Asked what proof he had, he responded: "There
are people who have proved this – and I have photos." However, he refused
to give Forum 18 any names or contact details of individuals who say they
have received money to attend Adventist services.

Pastor Samedov vigorously refutes the accusation that his church gives
money to anyone to attend. "First of all, and most importantly, it is not
true and they have no facts that back up their claim," he told Forum 18.
"Secondly, it is not against the law even if anyone does want to pay people
to attend religious services."

Pastor Samedov said that also present during the 18 December interrogation
was Ferdovsi Kerimov, who took part in the November 2004 raid,
interrogations and hostile TV interviews of children against the protests
of their parents. Kerimov is the Gyanja representative of the State
Committee for Work with Religious Organisations. "However, he failed to
defend me – and refused to explain this to me," Pastor Samedov told Forum
18.

Reached several times on 19 December, Kerimov refused to answer Forum 18’s
questions about his involvement in the case.

Adventist leaders told Forum 18 that in the wake of the 8 December raid on
the Baku church, Pastor Rasim Bakhshiyev and seven other congregation
members were fined under Article 299 part 3 of the Code of Administrative
Offences. This states that "the holding by clergy and members of religious
associations of meetings and the creation of labour, literary and other
circles and groups not connected with the conducting of religious rituals
with the aim of attracting young people and youth carries a fine of 10 to
15 times the minimum monthly wage for responsible figures."

"This doesn’t even apply to us, as the four children present on 8 December
were Pastor Rasim Bakhshiyev’s own children," Adventist leaders said. "In
addition, the police issued no documents about the fine – they just took
the money."

In an account of her five-hour detention on 8 December, seen by Forum 18,
one of the eight Adventists from Baku describes how police treated the
group. "Police officers and people in civilian clothes asked us questions
about our faith," Samira Karaeva reported. "When we answered they laughed
at our responses, and they asked me to sing for them some religious songs.
They tried to convince us that our religious convictions are untrue, that
we are on the wrong path and that we should abandon this path."

Karaeva said she and her fellow-Adventists protested at the "insulting"
way the police addressed their pastor and one elderly church member. "The
police officers used disrespectful expressions about our freedom of belief
and choice." She complained that books and church documents confiscated
during the raid had not been returned.

Adventist leaders told Forum 18 that in the wake of the Baku raid they had
written a letter of complaint to Hidayat Orujev, chair of the State
Committee for Work with Religious Organisations. "However, we have had no
response," they lamented. (END)

For a personal commentary, by an Azeri Protestant, on how the
international community can help establish religious freedom in Azerbaijan,
see < 482>

For more background information see Forum 18’s Azerbaijan religious
freedom survey at <‘ >.

More coverage of freedom of thought, conscience and belief in Azerbaijan
is at
< mp;religion=all&country=23&results=50>.

A survey of the religious freedom decline in the eastern part of the
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) area is at
< id=806>.

A printer-friendly map of Azerbaijan is available at
< s/atlas/index.html?Parent=asia&Rootmap=azerba& gt;.
(END)

© Forum 18 News Service. All rights reserved. ISSN 1504-2855
You may reproduce or quote this article provided that credit is given to
F18News

Past and current Forum 18 information can be found at

REGIONAL PHASE OF MICROSOFT’S "IMAGINE CUP" CONTEST TO START IN ARMENIA ON DECEMBER 20

Noyan Tapan
Dec 19, 2007

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 19, NOYAN TAPAN. The regional phase of Microsoft’s
"Imagine Cup" contest will start on December 20 in Armenia for the
first time. NT was informed by the contest’s organizational committee
that "2008 Imagine Cup" will be held under the slogan "Imagine a
World, in which Information Technologies Contribute to Improvement
of the Environment".

According to organizers, this contest has been held since 2003
and provides young specialists from various countries with the
opportunity to discover their potential for creation of technologies
and innovations.

The groups participating in the first phase of the regional "Imagine
Cup" contest, have to fill in an application and sumbit a software
description for solution of the proposed problem by February 15,
2008. The groups have to be composed of three students (post-graduate
students and those studying for a Master’s degree may be included)
and one lecturer – head of the group.

During the second phase (until April 20), the participant groups
have to present software for solution of the proposed problem, and
the presentation of the software solutions that have reached finals
will take place by April 25. The groups to submit the best solutions
will receive monetary prizes.

The best group will represent Armenia at the world "Imagine Cup"
contest to be held in Paris in the summer of 2008.

The organizers of the contest’s regional phase are Microsoft Armenia
Office, the Enterprise Incubator Foundation, the USAID "Competitive
Armenian Private Sector" (CAPS) Program, while its sponsors are
Synopsys Armenia, Bi Line and Unicomp companies and the Union of IT
Enterprises of Armenia

NO PRE-CONDITIONS OF A KIND EXIST IN ARMENIA

Hayots Ashkharh, Armenia
Dec 18 2007

According to the Head of the National Security Service: "Unfortunately
in terms of social security, we perceive the pre-election period as
a stage of explosive danger.

Meanwhile we must particularly underscore that the pre-conditions
faced by many famous countries, the so-called colored revolutions,
cause no threat to Armenia. We are familiar to the existing social
dispositions. By our observation they mainly tend to the consistent
solution of the political, economic, and social issues and the
country’s development.

Besides that, unlike the countries having faced colored revolutions, so
far as Armenia is concerned, according to the estimation of different
organizations cooperating with Armenia in different spheres, as well
as structures protecting political civil rights, don’t give us any
grounds to think that our country is in crises and that revolution
is the only way to settle this problem.

Consequently I don’t think international organizations will assist
the possible revolutionary developments in Armenia."

WITH ASSISTANCE OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE CENTER FOR HOMELESS 20 CITIZENS SETTLED IN BOARDING HOUSES

Noyan Tapan
Dec 17 2007

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 17, NOYAN TAPAN. The Social Assistance Center for the
Homeless under the RA Ministry of Labour and Social Issues, which has
started to operate in Yerevan since January 2006, has served to 480
people until now. 44 out of them have received hospital treatment,
6 out of them have returned home, 20 have been settled in boarding
houses, and 16 out of them have picked up a job. This information
was provided to a Noyan Tapan correspondent in the Department for the
Disabled and Elderly under the Ministry. It was also mentioned that,
at present, there are 59 homeless citizens in the center, the number
of whom is more than envisaged by 9.

Homeless citizens live in the center for two months. They receive
medical-psychological service and food free of charge there. Their
documentary problems, as well as a number of other social issues are
also solved.

IRANIAN EMBASSY SAYS USA, ISRAEL BEHIND AZERI COUP ALLEGATIONS

Turan News Agency, Azerbaijan
December 17, 2007 Monday

Baku, 17 December: The report broadcast by the first channel of state
television [AzTV] about the exposure of a group of radical extremists
who plotted with the help of Iranian special services to seize power in
Azerbaijan has caused a harsh reaction of Tehran. To all appearances,
the Iranian authorities are seriously "offended" and are not going to
put up with the allegations. This is corroborated by today’s statement
of the Iranian embassy in Baku which describes the allegations as a
"comedy" whose scenario had been written with the involvement of the
USA and Israel.

Without hiding its irony, the embassy says it believes that
Azerbaijan’s senior leadership has nothing to do with this
provocation. "It is more likely to have been done by the low-ranking
elements in the government who wrote the scenario taking dictation
from the USA and Israel," the statement says.

The document also notes that "the documentary about Said’s group" was
broadcast on several TV channels, which points to a political order.

The purpose of the order could be attempts to divert the public
attention from the Karabakh conflict, involve Azerbaijan in the orbit
of the US policy on Iran, equate Shi’ism with terrorism, create a
psychological atmosphere corresponding to the negative attitude of
the West to Islam and prevent the simplification of border crossing
procedures for Azerbaijani and Iranian citizens.

As to the "terrorists", the Iranian embassy describes their testimonies
as "ridiculous" and "amateurish". "Allegations about a 15-member
group plotting a coup is a clear insult to the Azerbaijani state,"
the statement says. Finally, the document expresses the hope that
Azerbaijan’s state agencies will take the necessary measures to prevent
in the future actions that inflict serious damage to relations between
the two countries.

A group of 15 young men, who the National Security Ministry said had
been recruited by the Iranian military group Sepah [Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps] and plotted an armed coup in Azerbaijan, were recently
unmasked and convicted.

RA CEC MEMBERS TO OBSERVE GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

PanARMENIAN.Net
17.12.2007 13:48 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Two representatives of the Armenian Central Election
Committee will observe the presidential election in Georgia within
the OSCE/ODIHR mission, RA CEC Spokesperson Tatev Ohanyan said.

"We received an invitation to observe the Georgian presidential
election within the OSCE/ODIHR mission," she said adding that it hasn’t
been decided yet who will depart for Georgia, Novosti Armenia reports.

Georgia will hold early presidential election on January 5, 2008.

WHY SHUSHI IS NOT BECOMING AN ARMENIAN CULTURAL CENTER

KarabakhOpen
14-12-2007 12:08:37

There is no cultural life in Shushi. The NKR minister of culture
and youth Norek Gasparyan said so. And it happened 15 years after
liberating and declaring Shushi the cultural capital of all Armenians.

Two days ago NKR President Bako Sahakyan visited Shushi with a group
of officials. He visited the art gallery, the children’s theater,
the Dramatic Theater, the puppet theater. The minister of culture
Norek Gasparyan says the government is likely to have all the cultural
establishments of Shushi in one building with bearable conditions. He
offered to move the Ministry of Culture and Youth to Shushi, into
the building of the former College of Ladies.

Since 1993 the population of Shushi has halved and counts 2.5
thousand now.

Most public workers, including the staffs of the innumerable for
Shushi theaters and music schools live in Stepanakert and come to
Shushi to work everyday. It takes only 15 minutes by bus, fortunately.

But most importantly, in December 2007 Shushi feels like 1992. The
city is ruined. The streets are impassable. People there are poorer
than in Stepanakert. Nothing has changed for the past 15 years. The
impression is, however, that everyone has just opened their eyes and
seen that there is no life in Shushi. (Although it should be noted
that as editor of Artsakh State University, Norek Gasparyan prepared
several programs about Shushi where he told about this situation with
great pain.)

Shushi has been discussed at different events and levels. A few years
ago Shushi Foundation was set up which did research. In 2006 another
foundation was set up, Rebirth of Shushi, led by the mayor of Yerevan
Yervand Zakharyan. In the beginning of 2007 when they were making the
decision on what programs the money raised in Telethon 2007 to spend,
they announced that that the target of the all-Armenian donations
would become Shushi.

Later the decision changed because another telethon was rumored to
be held on May 9, 2007 the 15th anniversary of liberation of Shushi.

No telethon was held on May 9, however, and the telethon in
November was devoted to the region of Martuni, and Shushi was left
without all-Armenian assistance. Some work has been financed by the
government. The road to Ghazanchetsots Church was repaired, some
buildings were supplied with gas.

Apartments are repaired little by little, but everyone acknowledges
that what is done is not sufficient.

Why is not Shushi reconstructed? Why is it not becoming an Armenian
cultural center? Maybe it is due to lack of information on the town,
and our compatriots abroad do not know that the town needs help. Or
maybe the problem is that most part of the town has been privatized
by someone, and any effort to repair a historical building is viewed
as encroachment on private property. Or yet the problem may be the
lack of a policy.

PART BY PART TRUTH WILL BECOME KNOWN
Hakob Badalyan

Lragir
Dec 14 2007
Armenia

The main outcome of the presidential election in 2008 perhaps will
not be who the president of Armenia will be but who is who in the
political, economic and cultural elite of Armenia, what each has done
over the past 16 years, what each failed to do, what each wanted
to do and what each did not want to be done. When all this becomes
known, when the politicians and their teams "pour" all this onto one
another’s head, and the face of the government and opposition elites
of Armenia of all times is exposed, the society may suddenly realize,
with pain of course, that in the long run it makes no difference from
which elite the president of Armenia will be.

The course of the presidential process shows that within about 70 days
before February 19 what happened over the past 16 years will open
up to the society with all its glamour and misery. The statements,
accusations and questions, threats to make historical facts known and
retorts will escalate and aggravate. Certainly, nobody will make all
the truth known, but since many promise to reveal the truth, there
is probability that bit by bit, part by part, by different people,
the truth will nevertheless be revealed to the society.

At first sight it seems that this process may threaten our national
security, as well as our diplomatic stance, posturing with regard
to the world in general and the talks over Karabakh in particular,
the effectiveness of our actions. Our foes may learn things which
they had better not. In the end, every word uttered in Armenia may
be used against us at the international "judgment", in the direct
and figurative sense of the word, though it may sound unrealistic
and nonsensical.

On the other hand, however, though it may sound strange to many
people, a situation has been shaped over the past two decades when
our silence is used against us at the homeland. In other words, by
silencing the truth each has tried to instrumentalize historical
events to achieve their own goals. The Armenian political elite
mainly emerged from this reality. Heroism was ascribed to people,
with which they had nothing to do, and which was criminal acts rather
than self-denial. Meanwhile, now many of them are on the "horse",
and those who could not do manipulations are under the "horse".

Silence for 16 years has become the weapon of the elite against the
society, and now in an effort to reveal each other in the race of the
presidential election the political teams break the silence and disarm
one another. The only positive thing in this process is that the whole
crap lying heavily on the shoulders of the society and relying on
the decency of the society will float, the situation will clear up,
if not for all, at least for part, and the society will be able to
breathe freely, rid of all kinds of "moral" obligations and ties,
and think of future freely. If an opportunity to think about future
freely arises, the society itself will take care of the international
"judgment" and national security in general, face challenges because
the greatest challenge of all times is the truth stuck in the windpipe.

OPPOSITION PAPER HIT BY BLAST
By Hovannes Shoghikian

Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Dec 13 2007

An Armenian opposition newspaper was rocked by an explosion early
Thursday which its editor-in-chief linked to its hard-hitting and
often derogatory coverage of the government.

An explosive device planted at the entrance to the Yerevan offices of
"Chorrord Ishkhanutyun" (Fourth Estate) reportedly went off at around
4:30 am, seriously damaging the two entrance doors. Nobody was inside
the premises during the blast.

"We did not notice any loss of property," Mher Ghalechian, a
"Chorrord Ishkhanutyun" journalist, told RFE/RL. "They probably
quickly planted the explosive device and left the scene in haste,"
he said of the attackers.

Ghalechian also said that police officers arrived at the scene later
in the morning to conduct forensic tests and look for possible clues.

As of late evening the police did not issue any statements in
connection with the incident, which could add to rising political
tensions ahead of Armenia’s presidential election scheduled for
February 19.

"Chorrord Ishkhanutyun," which is published twice a week, is staunchly
supportive of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian and hostile to
Armenia’s current leaders as well as pro-government and even some
opposition leaders. The paper routinely derides them in its articles
and trademark cartoons.

The "Chorrord Ishkhanutyun" editor, Shogher Matevosian, claimed that
her staffers recently received "threats" from Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian’s chief bodyguard and driver and a local government chief.

Matevosian said the bodyguard, known to journalists as Vacho,
warned her parliamentary correspondent that Sarkisian supporters are
increasingly annoyed by "Chorrord Ishkhanutyun" cartoons and that
the prime minister may no longer be able to keep them from assaulting
her or her colleagues.

Matevosian also claimed that Mher Sedrakian, the controversial mayor
of Yerevan’s Erebuni district, phoned the paper and swore at one of
its employees in response to a derogatory "Chorrord Ishkhanutyun"
article about him. "So right now I have two suspects, who are not
particularly different from each other: Vacho and Mher Sedrakian,"
she told RFE/RL.

Matevosian is among five pro-Ter-Petrosian activists who were arrested
and are now prosecuted for resisting police orders during an October
demonstration in Yerevan dispersed by security forces. The activists
were released from police custody after Ter-Petrosian’s personal
intervention.

BAKU SAYS TIME NEEDED TO DISCUSS NEW MINSK GROUP PROPOSAL
By Fariz Ismailzade

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Dec 12 2007

The new proposal from the OSCE’s Minsk group, put forward to the
foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan at last week’s OSCE
summit in Madrid, needs to be studied in more detail by expert groups,
according to Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov (ANS TV,
December 11). A similarly cautious statement came from the Foreign
Ministry press secretary, Khazar Ibrahim, "All principles must
be agreed upon in order to be able to talk about some sort of an
agreement. If one principle is remaining, it means that no agreement
is reached" (Day.az, December 10).

Official Baku has not made any positive remarks about this latest
proposal, showing instead signs of indifference or perhaps fatigue
with the repeated cycle of developments around the Armenia-Azerbaijan
conflict over Karabakh. This is not the first time that the OSCE Minsk
group has proposed a draft settlement agreement only to have it later
be rejected by one of the parties to the conflict. In the late 1990s,
three such proposals were laid on the table, called, respectively,
a "package deal," the "step-by-step proposal," and a "unified state"
proposal. All three were rejected.

Local experts believe that no matter what is written about the latest
proposal, it will be shelved as well. Vafa Guluzadeh, one of the most
experienced diplomats of Azerbaijan and a former advisor to Presidents
Abulfaz Elchibey and Heydar Aliyev, sarcastically said in his latest
interview with Day.az, "Even if Azerbaijan is elected as the head of
UN and I am elected the UN Secretary General, nobody will return our
lands. They must be taken by force."

Nevertheless, some Azerbaijani media outlets are celebrating a
victory with the latest proposal, because of the Armenian reaction
to it. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, while commenting
on the proposal, said that it falls short of the maximum interests
of both sides. Etibar Mammadov, chief analyst for state-owned AZTV,
commented that with this statement, Oskanian has admitted that
"independence" for Karabakh is not on the table, since independence
is the "maximum" demand of the Armenian side. Opposition parties,
however, criticized the talks, calling them treason, and saying,
"These negotiations do not meet the national interest of Azerbaijan"
(Yeni Musavat, Azadliq, December 4).

It is clear that both countries’ leaderships are under intense
pressure from the international community to agree on at least the
common framework for the resolution of the conflict before the year
2008 begins and presidential elections take place in both countries.

It will be extremely hard for either side to make concessions during
the election campaigns.

Meanwhile, last month the prestigious International Crisis Group
presented its new report on the Karabakh conflict, warning the
international community that, under current conditions, a resumption
of military activities is not only a possibility, but that the chances
for this are rising year-by-year.

Pundits now wonder what exactly is on the table of discussion and
what is included in the latest proposal. Novruz Mammadov, head of
the Azerbaijani president’s international relations department, told
media representatives that nothing new is included. Although Ibrahim
did not reveal any details, it was clear from his statements that the
issue under discussion is the step-by-step approach to the resolution
of the conflict: first the liberation of Azerbaijani regions outside
of Karabakh; next, the return of Azerbaijani displaced persons to
their homes; and finally a decision on the status of Karabakh itself.

If so, this must be considered a small diplomatic victory for Baku,
which has always lobbied for the step-by-step solution to the conflict.

Experts have long advocated a referendum as the optimal way to
determine the final status of Karabakh, but Azerbaijani officials have
refuted these rumors, saying that if such a vote is ever conducted,
it will be nation-wide referendum rather than one just in the disputed
territories.

Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov also noted that Karabakh could
be given a special status, but normal relations must first be
established between the two communities and infrastructure must be
restored in the occupied territories (Novosti-Azerbaijan, December
20). Interestingly enough, the World Bank made a statement on Tuesday,
December 11, expressing its readiness to provide financial resources
for reconstruction efforts in the war-torn areas, should a peace
agreement be reached. International financial institutions offered
similar incentives during the Key West (Florida) talks in 2001.

In all probability the excitement over the new proposals will die out
soon, and the public in both countries will focus on more pressing
domestic developments, such as the upcoming presidential elections
and continuing price hikes.