IT WOULD BE A REAL BLOW TO US TO LOSE A FRIEND LIKE AZERBAIJAN, ANALYST
news.az
Jan 14 2010
Azerbaijan
Jason Katz The Huffington Post has published article of Jason
Katz, principal of the Tool Shed Group, US-based consultancy, on
US-Azerbaijani relations.
As an avid observer of US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle
East, Eurasia and Central Asia, the American penchant for quick fixes
and feel good speeches with no solutions and fleeting PR triumphs
never ceases to amaze me. This is rivaled only by the US’s proclivity
for a short term outlook on foreign policy and not quite being able
to see the forest for the trees.
The United States’ hegemony is still largely intact, despite the severe
economic downturn, runaway national debt, foreign policy blunders of
many administrations and tremendously costly wars.
However, American supremacy is not absolute. The US has always needed
and still needs to make smart and strategic foreign policy decisions,
choose the right friends and allies and zealously protect what it
built in the last century.
Perhaps the most obvious and dangerous of these short sighted mistakes
is the US’s "reset button" and subsequent moves with regard to the
Russian Federation and the Caucasus. To even the casual observer, one
can easily see that Russia is resurgent. Whether we are talking about
the neo-Soviet Union or a new Russian Empire makes little difference.
It seems clear that Russia seeks to bring the former Soviet Republics
and nations in Eastern Europe back into their sphere of influence.
Russia’s weapon of choice? Oil and natural gas, coupled with a little
military action thrown in for good measure.
Nowhere is this seen more clearly than in Eurasia and Central
Asia, the regions that are home to a wealth of energy reserves from
moderate-Muslim, Western friendly and non-OPEC nations that constitute
the vitally important East-West Energy Corridor. The region is the
key to the free flow of these vast energy reserves that contribute
to the energy security of Europe and the West and even to Israel is
the Caucasus.
The Republic of Azerbaijan is the lynchpin of the East-West Energy
Corridor, anchored by the Baku-Tbilisi-Cheyhan Pipeline, a major
pipeline that bypasses Russia and delivers oil directly to the
Turkish Mediterranean port of Cheyhan and on to Western markets. The
BTC Pipeline even provides 24% of Israel’s oil. The simple reality
is that if Caspian oil and natural gas (from its Western or Eastern
banks) is to bypass Russia and Iran, it must go through Baku, the
capital of Azerbaijan.
Thankfully for the West, Azerbaijan is the first parliamentary
democracy in the Muslim world and a staunchly secular, tolerant
and pro-Western society to this day. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is
often left unattended and unappreciated by US foreign policy. It is
worth mentioning that Azerbaijan constantly attempts to reach out
to the US, both in terms of business and diplomacy to ally herself
more closely with the US and not to those who (to phrase it nicely)
are not friends of the US. Unfortunately, the US seems on a path to
either overtly or by omission ignore Azerbaijan and the Caucasus in
favor of much less friendly folks.
The US’s PR-driven foreign policy in the region has given rise to
increased tensions and caused serious concern about the future of the
Caucasus. This is a direct result of the rash moves with regard to
the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and the US’s desire
for some "good PR."
Azerbaijan is not opposed to Turkish-Armenian dialogue or the
signing of protocols for the normalization of relations between
the two nations. In fact, Azerbaijan has been in dialogue with
Armenia on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, one of the longest running
"frozen conflicts’ in the world today. Azerbaijan’s concern with
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the deep involvement of US diplomats
and policy makers is that it focuses on a tiny portion of the regional
equation and accomplishes merely symbolic gains that have the distinct
potential to destabilize the entire region down the road.
It seems clear that Azerbaijan would like to believe the assurances
by their friends in Turkey that any further progress on rapprochement
with Armenia will depend on a tangible progress in the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, the lack of any mention of
Nagorno-Karabakh in the protocols for normalization raises doubts.
Again, this move toward rapprochement is a great PR effort and even
included US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton personally accompanying
Armenia’s Foreign Minister Nalbandian to the signing ceremony,
but there have been no recent efforts on the Armenia-Azerbaijan
peace process.
Azerbaijan has diplomatically, respectfully and repeatedly attempted
to communicate the danger of potential consequences of ignoring
regional realities; however, these overtures seem to have fallen
on deaf ears. As a result, the overwhelming significance of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue for Azerbaijan and its leadership and its
resolve to stand its ground has been, once again, underestimated. The
reality for Azerbaijan is that the Nagorno-Karabakh region of
Azerbaijan is occupied by Armenia, and there are one million internally
displaced Azerbaijanis who want to go home. This is not an opinion;
rather it is a statement of fact as the UN, US, EU, etc.
recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, period.
This resolve is illustrated by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s
refusal to travel to Turkey last spring to meet with President Obama,
a move that shows he means business when he makes a statement or
a political move. This conviction has made Azerbaijan a reliable
partner for the US, Turkey, Georgia and even Israel – even in the
face of Russian and Iranian pressure.
Those who study Azerbaijan in depth learn that it is a pragmatic
nation that acts based on its national interest and proceeds from a
rational assessment of the changing regional environment. Undercutting
the Azerbaijan-Turkey mutually VERY beneficial connection (which
firmly anchored Azerbaijan’s pro-Western orientation) and ignoring
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict serves no one, save Russia and Iran.
Turkey and the US should come to terms with the reality that alienating
Azerbaijan only serves to push Azerbaijan closer to Russia, thus
cutting off Central Asia and effectively restoring Moscow’s control
over the entire region. At the same time, Washington’s over-excitement
over a symbolic diplomatic victory with Turkey and Armenia seems to
interfere with a sober cost/benefit analysis of the consequences for
the US interests and the region’s long-term future.
The US spent years helping to build a carefully constructed regional
infrastructure. These efforts resulted in strengthening and anchoring
America’s presence in the region, boosted Turkey’s power status in the
region, provided the US with its only real major foreign policy success
(the BTC pipeline) and established the East-West Energy Corridor. All
of this is now being undermined by America’s current foreign policy
of seeking quick PR "hits."
By failing to develop a comprehensive regional solution and policy to
Eurasia and the surrounding region, the United States and its allies
are missing out on an excellent opportunity to change the region.
Furthermore, by pushing rash decisions, the US is undermining its
own position of strength and influence. A thoughtful, comprehensive
regional solution would boost US gravitas and interests in the entire
region, while keeping Russian and Iranian desires for power at bay. An
encompassing solution will also serve to keep Azerbaijan squarely
with the West and cement Turkey as a regional power, which, again,
presents a counter to Russia and Iran. Perhaps most dramatically, it
will serve to bring Armenia out of its isolation and poverty and open
it to the wealth and prosperity that the rest of the region enjoys. An
Armenia that is no longer a Third World nation allied with Iran and
no longer serving as a vassal state of Russia works for all concerned.
US policymakers would do well to apply more strategic thinking coupled
with tactics to its foreign policy in the Caucasus and Eurasia and
to look 20 years ahead instead of to the immediate future. An active
high-level program of outreach, especially to Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliyev, and helping to move the real issues of the region forward
to resolution will undoubtedly be warmly welcomed. A good first step
to show renewed US interest is to move forward with the nomination of
a new ambassador to Baku, one who is a well-known expert on Eurasia
and the Caucasus.
It would be a real blow to US foreign policy and interests to lose
a friend like Azerbaijan.