Author: Zargarian Hambik

ARMENIAN PRIME MINISTER’S VISIT TO FRANCE CONTINUES

ARMENPRESS
Oct 26, 2007

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 26, ARMENPRESS: The government press office in Yerevan
said on October 25 prime minister Serzh Sarkisian began the second day
of his official visit to France with a meeting with Serge Chourouk,
the ethnic Armenian president of the administrative board of Alcatel
company for a discussion of Alcatel’s activity in Armenia.

The press office said both men agreed that Alcatel has to play a
bigger role in various sectors of Armenian economy. Serge Chourouk was
said to have pledged to be more specific in suggesting new projects
for Armenia.

Serzh Sarkisian had a meeting also with his French counterpart Francois
Fillon. The Armenian prime minister was said to highly appreciate the
friendly Armenian -French relations, describing them as "brilliant,
" especially in political, cultural and local self-governance fields.

He noted that the economic relations between the two countries are
also improving, saying also that as a country with powerful economic
capacities France can play an essential role in the development of
Armenia’s economy.

The two prime ministers also spoke about stability in the Caucasus,
the process of the Karabakh conflict settlement in the framework
of the OSCE Minsk Group, the forthcoming presidential elections in
Armenia and a number of other issues of reciprocal interest.

The French prime minister accepted Sarkisian’s invitation to visit
Armenia.

Sarkisian met also the same day with Patrick Devedjian, secretary
general of the governing Union for Democracy party. Today Sarkisian
was expected to meet with president Nicolas Sarkozy.

STRAIN, STRAIN TO END…
By Hagop Avedikian

AZG Armenian Daily
26/10/2007

The first president’s strategy is becoming clear on the threshold
of coming presidential elections – to strain the inner situation,
to force the authorities to make consecutive mistakes and to have
the benefit of it.

In this situation Levon Ter-Petrosian feels fine, as after 10 years
of volunteer unemployment, he has probably missed Azatutyun (Freedom)
square, the mass meetings, lots of people, his own voice, selected
words and sharp qualifications.

For the second time he has a wide battlefield in front of him to
manifest all his abilities – a natural interest accumulated in 10
years, ears eager to listen about the change of the authorities,
and the most important thing – accumulation of injustice and
illegality, that doesn’t even need interference to turn into a
widespread dissatisfaction. And everything could be forgotten in that
widespread dissatisfaction – not only the achievements of the present
authorities, but also all the guilt of the previous authorities. The
slogan "to withdraw "these" (the word is taken from September 21 speech
of L. Ter-Petrosian) from the sphere" will be of a great importance
for many people.

Two opposite sides appear face-to-face in the field of electoral
campaign. The first is the government structures led by the Republican
Party and its leader, and the other side is the opposition gradually
gathering around L. Ter-Petrosian.

The first, of course, has big resources in its arsenal; we cannot
exclude also the involvement of a part of the opposition led by Vazgen
Manukian, even the ARF by means of haggling and compromises. But the
biggest priority of the Republic party will remain the unilateral use
of TV that like a boomerang gives an opportunity to Levon Ter-Petrosian
and his alliances to use the mass meeting forms of campaign, as those
are more heart-to-heart to ANM and its leader.

In this case, ANM and its leader get a nice opportunity to use the
violences of the security services against the authorities and its
candidate.

Consequently, on October 26 a process of straining the situation will
start in Azatutyan (Freedom) square, a new movement that unfortunately
will not turn into a factor of opposing the authorities, but it will
be a struggle for power. For … uncertainty.

SERGE SARGSYAN-TER-PETROSYAN STRUGGLE WILL TAKE PLACE ON DIFFERENT PLANES

Lragir, Armenia
Oct 25 2007

In Armenia it is early to talk about the likelihood of revolution in
Armenia, although recently more and more opinions have been voiced
on this along with the political activity of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. On
October 25 the political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan hosted at
the Hayeli Club spoke about the absence of preconditions for a fruit
or flower revolution in our country. The reporters asked him if he
still thinks there are no preconditions for a revolution in Armenia
after the first president returned.

"When I told that, I said I don’t think a fruit or flower revolution is
something that is organized from the outside. It was not the case in
Georgia, in Ukraine, in Kyrgyzstan. Saakashvili, Burdjanadze, Jvania,
Yushchenko, Bakiev, none of them had been sent from Washington or
Brussels. And the situation there occurred inside the country and
ripened. I thought the situation in Armenia is not favorable for such
developments. From the inside of Armenia, not from the outside. I
thought whatever happens from the outside, the reasons of the political
life in Armenia come from the inside," Alexander Iskandaryan says. He
thinks despite the activity of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, it is early to
talk about a revolution in Armenia.

Iskandaryan thinks at the moment Ter-Petrosyan has lesser chance to
win the election than Serge Sargsyan. However, Alexander Iskadaryan
adds that he would prefer not making any evaluation because the
developments may be rather interesting. He says, for instance, when
Ter-Petrosyan had not returned to politics yet, he would say the
presidential election in Armenia would be uninteresting, and Serge
Sargsyan would encounter no competition, and the election would
be a mere technical process. "After Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s address
the situation changed. It changed in a rather interesting way,"
Alexander Iskandaryan says. Interestingly, he says if Serge Sargsyan
and Levon Ter-Petrosyan run in the race, they will be competing on
two different tracks.

"Mr. Sargsyan will take the track for the organization of the election,
Levon Ter-Petrosyan will act publicly. This plane is that of ideology,
it deals with public, and we all know that he knows how to deal with
the public, we all remember 1988-1991," Alexander Iskandaryan says. He
says if the government manipulates television, which Iskandaryan
thinks is highly probable, the struggle will shift to the street,
to rallies. "This is the sphere where Levon Ter-Petrosyan feels quite
comfortable because he is an experienced public activist. Meanwhile,
Mr. Sargsyan is not, I think," Alexander Iskandaryan thinks, adding
that the struggle will involve not only two ideologies, two activists
but also two methods.

Alexander Iskandaryan says there is no need to exaggerate the
meaning of ideological struggle. According to him, the problem is
two approaches toward the voters. One is the government’s approach
based on development, both internally and externally, and it should be
carried on. The other is Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s approach that the past
ten years were years of loss and regress which led to the failure of
the internal and external policies. Everything depends on which of
these two "pictures" the society will believe.

THERE ARE NO PARTICULAR CHANGES IN TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY

armradio.am
25.10.2007 14:20

There are no essential changes in Turkey’s foreign policy at the given
point, RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told a news conference
today.

Speaking about his recent meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali
Babacan, Oskanian noted that it was the first meeting between the
Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey after the elections in that
country. "There were some expectations in this respect. However,
there are no essential changes in Turkey’s foreign policy at this
point. Turkey is still interested in processes, while Armenia is
interested in results, and there are still no similarities here,"
the Minister noted. At the same time he emphasized the intention of
the Armenian side to continue the meetings on the level of Foreign
Ministers. However, these will not comprise part of the process, but
will be "one-time" meetings, deriving from necessity, Mr. Oskanian
noted.

PM SERGE SARGSYAN TO MEET WITH HIS FRENCH COUNTERPART

armradio.am
25.10.2007 12:52

October 24 RA Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan left the United States for
France on an official visit. On the first day of the visit the Prime
Minister attended a reception in his honor, featuring members of the
French Senate and the National Assembly, leaders of French-Armenian
organizations.

Serge Sargsyan delivered a greeting speech, in which he said, in part:

"We have a devoted partner in Europe in the face of France, which is
consistently promoting Armenia’s inclusion in European structures. In
this respect, we highly appreciate France’s important assistance
especially in the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy.

France is sincerely interested in the reduction of tension in the
South Caucasus and establishment of stability and makes constructive
efforts in this direction. All of you are aware of France’s useful
involvement in the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict settlement
together with the United States and Russia.

Today we are effectively cooperating with France in most different
spheres.

Today there are 120 enterprises in Armenia operating with participation
of French capital.

Our Government attaches great importance to cultural, scientific
and educational exchanges and encourages the joint programs in these
spheres.

Loving and speaking French has been traditionally peculiar of the
Armenian society, and in this regard we think the success of the
French University of Yerevan was natural. I know that notwithstanding
its youth, this is one of the best French Universities outside France."

PM Serge Sargsyan noted that the role of the French Armenian Community
is great in the reinforcement of Armenian-French friendship. French
Armenians are a live bridge between the two peoples.

Turning to the Year of Armenia in France, the Prime Minister expressed
gratitude to the political leadership of France, local self-government
bodies and all establishments and individuals who helped make the
Year of Armenia in France a real celebration. He said the Year of
Armenia will become a decisive impetus for the development of cultural,
economic, educational and scientific ties and will further reinforce
the traditional friendship between the two countries and peoples.

Today Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan is scheduled to meet with his
French counterpart Francois Fillon.

ARMENIA AND GLOBAL WARMING

Grist Magazine, WA
35/652
Oct 24 2007

Climate change signals in the Caucasus Mountains

The following is a guest essay from Eric Pallant, professor of
environmental science at Allegheny College in Meadville, Pa., and
codirector of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Integrated Water
Resources Management. He is reporting from the National Disasters
and Water Security conference in Yerevan, Armenia.

The last time there was dramatic climate change in Armenia, Noah
built an ark, floated for 40 days and nights, and disembarked on
Mount Ararat. Armenians insist they have a piece of his old boat in
a local museum. Mount Ararat serves as a useful backdrop, snowcapped
and picturesque, for the NATO meeting on Natural Disasters and Water
Security.

Mount Ararat makes an appearance in the morning light. (Photo:
Eric Pallant)

It turns out to be a much more difficult procedure to document climate
change in the Caucuses than, say, the Alps. Western Europeans have
been sending scientists into their mountains for decades, who then
return to their labs with a clear signal that montane temperatures
are rising. But after the Soviet Union broke up in the late ’80s,
armies replaced Russian scientists in the Caucuses as wars raged in
Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. More than a decade of data was lost
— probably the key decade, too, for picking up a signal.

That makes Maria Shahgdanova’s research unique. She has continuous
data from two sites in the Caucuses: one on the north side of the
mountains in Russia, and another on the south side in Georgia. From
the 1930s to the 1970s, when the Alps were getting warmer, there was
no change here — but beginning in 1967 temperatures started rising
like a low-grade fever.

Between 1985 and 2000, measurements of 113 mountain glaciers showed 107
retreating, five unchanging, and two advancing. On average, they gave
up 25 feet per year. Since the end of the 1900s, bare ice has decreased
by one-fourth, with 10 percent disappearing in just the last 15 years.

All of that melting ice is accumulating in lakes at the glacial
termini. In 1985 there were 16 major lakes. Fifteen years later,
there were 22 lakes, and eight of the existing lakes had increased
in size. Now comes the scary part: with the fall of the Soviet Union,
there has been large-scale deforestation, overgrazing, and unregulated
tourism development just below those lakes. When the ice dams burst,
as they are prone to do, the consequences are going to be catastrophic.

A second study from Georgia suggests that though floods are not
more frequent, their intensity has increased dramatically. Ditto for
Afghanistan, where floods used to be relied upon to irrigate fields.

Now they come out of the mountains with such force that houses in
the floodplain simply wash away. As if Afghans don’t have enough to
worry about.

The sense at this meeting is that the former Soviet republics,
from Hungary and Romania east to the ‘stans, have a new reason to be
paranoid. Most of the scientists here don’t have enough long-term data
to confirm that the regional climate is changing; but looking out of
their windows, they sense that in some places rainfall is becoming
heavier and in others it is getting dryer.

Looking out my conference window, I see that Mount Ararat has
disappeared behind a smoky haze of dense air pollution.

Mount Ararat in the afternoon, shrouded in smog. (Photo: Eric Pallant)

BOWING TO THE ISLAMISTS
By Paul Belien

Washington Times, DC
Oct 24 2007

Last Thursday, a group of 80 people from 15 European countries, plus
Israel, Canada and the United States, convened in a conference room
on the seventh floor of the European Parliament building in Brussels
for a "counterjihad" meeting.

They listened to speakers such as the Egyptian-born scholar Bat Ye’or,
author of the book "Eurabia," who explained how the European Union
(EU) has become a vehicle for the Islamization of Europe and how
the EU has promoted "a massive Muslim immigration… hoping that the
Euro-Arab symbiosis through economic development, soft diplomacy and
multiculturalism would guarantee [Europe] peace, markets and oil."

The citizens of Europe are extremely worried by this Islamization
process, but their political leaders impose it on them against
their wish. Europe is in worse shape than America because European
democracies lack two pillars of freedom that America still has
– solidly enshrined in the first and second amendments of its
Constitution. In many European countries, freedom of speech no longer
exists. It has been restricted by laws intended to curb so-called
"hate speech." These laws forbid people to express their worries
about massive immigration and about the Islamization of their nations.

Europe, with few exceptions, such as Switzerland, is also unfamiliar
with the second pillar of free societies: the right of the citizens
to keep and bear arms. In countries such as Belgium even pepper spray
is an illegal weapon. The result is that the law-abiding citizens
are at the mercy of criminals, many of them of foreign extraction.

While the delegates at the counterjihad meeting, who had been invited
to the European Parliament by one of Europe’s so-called far-right
parties, discussed strategies to counter the spread of Islamism, EU
bureaucrats convened in a meeting room two floors below. On the fifth
floor of the parliament building, they discussed the "harmonization"
of self-defense legislation in the 27 EU member states. This means
that, if the EU gets its way, the citizens of all member states will
soon be submitted to Belgium’s strict rules and that pepper sprays
will be banned everywhere.

Meanwhile, as became clear from the country reports given at the
counterjihad meeting, Europe’s no-go zones are multiplying. These are
areas where the police no longer dare to venture and where Islamists
hold sway. Every night since the beginning of last week, immigrant
youths have been torching cars and clashing with police in Amsterdam’s
Slotervaart district. The incidents started Oct. 14 when a policewoman
shot dead a 22-year old ethnic Moroccan while he was stabbing her and
a colleague with a knife. Senior police officers compare the current
situation in Amsterdam to the 2005 Ramadan riots in Paris. Media
outside the Netherlands, however, hardly mention the riots, which
aim to drive the police from Slotervaart and turn the neighborhood
into a new no-go area – yet another pocket of Eurabia on Europe’s soil.

Similar events are currently taking place in Brussels, the capital of
neighboring Belgium and of the EU. Last Sunday, demonstrating Turkish
youths ransacked an Armenian pub in the Sint-Joost-ten-Node borough.

According to the pub owner, police were present at the scene but
did not interfere while his pub was being demolished. The Armenian
owner, who by Belgian law is not allowed to possess pepper spray,
had to flee for his life. The situation in Brussels remains tense.

Fortunately, there is some good news as well. Last Sunday, the Swiss
People’s Party (SVP) won 29 percent of the votes and 62 of the 200
seats in Switzerland’s federal parliament, the National Council. This
is the largest number of seats that any Swiss party has ever won
since 1919.

During its campaign the SVP used a controversial poster, showing three
white sheep standing on the Swiss flag. One of the white sheep kicked
a black sheep off the flag. The caption read: "Bringing safety." The
SVP poster wanted to emphasize that foreigners commit four times as
many crimes as the Swiss do and that this situation will no longer
be tolerated. Everyone knows which segment of the foreign population
the term "black sheep" refers to.

Even law-abiding foreigners living in Switzerland realize what the
SVP’s true message is: Get rid of those aliens who perpetrate crimes.

Parties in the rest of Europe would be persecuted for using similar
posters because people are not allowed to contemplate the issue, but
the Swiss are able to raise their voices. It is no coincidence that
the freedom-loving Alpine republic consistently refuses to join the EU.

Paul Belien is editor of the Brussels Journal and an adjunct fellow
of the Hudson Institute.

ARMENIA SAYS IRANIAN PRESIDENT CUTS SHORT 2-DAY VISIT
By Avet Demourian, Associated Press Writer

The Associated Press
October 23, 2007 Tuesday 10:53 AM GMT

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cut short his two-day visit
to Armenia on Tuesday and returned to neighboring Iran, an Armenian
presidential spokesman said.

The Armenian government had expected Ahmadinejad to address parliament
and, in what was likely to cause controversy, plant a sapling at a
memorial commemorating the victims of what Armenians consider genocide.

He also had planned to visit the 18th century Blue Mosque in central
Yerevan, which was rebuilt with Iranian funding after the fall of
the Soviet Union in 1991.

But Ahmadinejad told Armenian President Robert Kocharian late
Monday that he needed to skip Tuesday’s planned events because of
unexpected developments in Iran that needed immediate attention,
Armenian presidential spokesman Viktor Sogomonian said. The spokesman
gave no details.

No unexpected developments have been reported in Iran that could
explain Ahmadinejad’s early departure.

The visit to the genocide memorial was the most sensitive part of his
agenda, and he may have wanted to avoid the ceremony there so as not
to risk causing tensions in relations with Turkey.

Scholars view the World War I-era killing of 1.5 million Armenians,
who were Christians, as the first genocide of the 20th century. But
debate on a resolution in the U.S. Congress that would recognize the
killings as genocide has angered Turkey, which says the toll has been
inflated and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest.

Ahmadinejad avoided taking sides on the issue Monday in a speech
before Armenian university students, saying only that Iran condemns
any crimes against humanity.

He has caused outrage in the past by suggesting that the Holocaust
is a "myth" invented by Jews. An estimated 6 million Jews were killed
during the Holocaust.

Ahmadinejad and Kocharian held talks Monday and struck several
agreements to bolster economic ties between the two neighboring
nations. They discussed plans to build a railway link and two
hydroelectric power plants on the border river, Araks.

The projects are important for landlocked Armenia, which has struggled
with power shortages and transport blockades since the collapse of
the Soviet Union. Neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey have shut their
borders with Armenia in the wake of a conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,
a breakaway region of Azerbaijan controlled by ethnic Armenians.

Kocharian’s spokesman said the president was not disturbed by
Ahmadinejad’s early departure because they had managed to cover all
the necessary issues during their talks Monday.

U.S. SENATORS BRIEFED SERGE SARGSYAN ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION DEBATE

PanARMENIAN.Net
23.10.2007 17:41 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ October 22, Armenian Prime Minister met in Washington
with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senator Richard J Durbin
to discuss development of the Armenian-American relations.

Senator Durbin briefed Serge Sargsyan on current debates on the
Armenian Genocide Resolution and the standpoint of U.S. lawmakers.

On behalf of the Armenian government and people, the Prime Minister
thanked Congressmen for support and attention to Armenian problems.

October 23, PM Sargsyan met with Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice and Assistant Secretary of State for Economics and Energy Ruben
Jeffrey.

He also participated in a session of the American-Armenian working
group.

After a reception on the RA Embassy in Washington the Armenian Prime
Minister will depart for Paris, the RA government’s press office
reported.

Washington Times
October 23, 2007

Ankara’s eyes

By Tulin Daloglu – Sometimes, the timing of events has more say than
the issue itself to determine its outcome. If the so-called Armenian
genocide resolution that recently passed the House Foreign Relations
Committee were to reach a floor vote at a time when separatist Kurdish
terrorist attacks were not intensifying in Turkey, and if there were
no U.S. occupation in Iraq, almost nothing would move House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi to re-evaluate her commitment to pass it.

But all of these things were happening when Mrs. Pelosi pushed the
resolution. She may seek excuses for her inexcusable ignorance of
current challenges, but she may not victoriously claim leadership. And
the way this resolution was handled creates serious doubt about
Democrats’ competence on national security issues.

Turkey, however, can claim victory. So far, Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be conducting a smart deterrence policy
on two fronts. First, when the resolution passed committee, he
recalled the Turkish ambassador to the United States back to Ankara.
Second, he got parliament to authorize a cross-border operation into
Northern Iraq to combat PKK terrorists. These two decisions touched
off concern in Washington that now may not be the time to bet on
Turkey’s common sense. Amusingly, concerns over the Western
orientation of the Justice and Development (AKP) Party and the
military’s constant suspicion about the goodwill of its Western
alliance over fighting the PKK may have sealed the deal.

But what most worried the U.S. was Turkey’s possible reaction to
restricting use of Incirlik Air Base. Defense Secretary Robert Gates
noted that 70 percent of U.S. air cargo, one-third of its fuel and 95
percent of mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles bound for Iraq
move through Incirlik. President Bush echoed the "very real risk" to
those operations: "Congress has more important work to do than
antagonizing a democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one
that’s providing vital support for our military every day."

Yet a congressional source close to Democrats told me that the AKP
would not shut down the operations in Incirlik because they need U.S.
backing in the face of continuing speculation over a possible coup by
the Turkish military – the guardians of the secular government. It’s
not a wise bet; there are also multimillion-dollar defense contracts
at stake. In a year, depending on developments, Turkey may re-evaluate
them as well.

Meanwhile, the AKP continues to strengthen its relationships with
Syria and Iran. It’s no little thing that first lady Hayrunnisa Gul
was photographed for the first time in official capacity last week in
her turban emerging from Cankaya, the presidential palace, to greet
Syrian President Beshar Assad and his wife. And last Monday, Turkish
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan proposed during a meeting with Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that the conflict with Syria over Golan
Heights be included in the upcoming peace summit in Annapolis. There
is also a commitment to an energy memorandum with Iran.

Although it seems troubling, a positive turn is always possible.
Turkey could play a mediator role between Israel and Syria. When I
interviewed Pinhas Avivi, Israel’s former ambassador to Ankara, in
August, he expressed confidence in the Turkish government and stressed
that Israel’s relationship with Turkey is better under the AKP. But
there remain doubts about the AKP’s goals -" whether its priority is
Muslim solidarity over the secular democracy that bonds Turkey to the
Western world.

The Erdogan government can be smart to strengthen these relationships
with Iran and Syria if they are for tactical reasons. In fact, the PKK
issue has brought Turkey close to Iran and Syria. But there is much
suspicion over the AKP’s hidden agenda. The worry is what will happen
if the Erdogan government strengthens those bilateral relationships
strategically.

The troubling image is that the Bush administration started to hear
Turkey’s concerns as a result of those strengthening relations. When
an estimated 200 PKK terrorists attacked a military convoy on Sunday,
killing 17 Turkish soldiers in Hakkari area, Mr. Bush was quick to
address the issue. "These attacks are unacceptable and must stop now,"
he said. But a Pentagon official told me that although recent
statements emphasize Turkey’s importance to the United States, he
doubts whether there will be any satisfactory action against the PKK.
"Our relations with Turkey will be another casualty of our Iraq
policy," he said.

It’s certain that Turkey will not imminently launch a military
operation into Northern Iraq. It will host a crucial ministerial
meeting of Iraq’s neighbors and major international powers in Istanbul
on Nov. 2-3. Then Mr. Erdogan will meet Mr. Bush at the White House on
Nov. 5. "We want to get a result, especially about [the PKK issue]
during my meetings on Nov. 5," Mr. Erdogan has said.

Now the dilemma is that no deterrence policy can be applied
infinitely. What happens if Turkey runs out of time without being
satisfied? Or what happens if Turkey is satisfied on the PKK issue?
Will it allow the Iraqi Kurds to include Kirkuk in their regional
government? Are the Kurds increasing the fight in Turkey for Kirkuk?

Right now, it seems another red line for Turkey, promising future troubles.

Tulin Daloglu is a freelance writer.

Source: ITORIAL/110230006