EXCLUSIVE: A CONSOLIDATED PRIMER ON THE SOUTH OSSETIA CONFLICT
Tom Ordeman, Jr.
Family Security Matters
August 11, 2008
NJ
As Russian forces attack the Caucasian republic of Georgia, many in the
West are no doubt puzzled. While many might be familiar with Georgia,
fewer will have heard of South Ossetia before Russia sent tanks into
the region on Friday. Although this remote dispute is taking place in
an unfamiliar area, its repercussions will undoubtedly impact global
security. In order to understand, a discussion of the conflict’s
background is in order.
Georgia is a former Soviet republic that gained its independence during
the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Since then, the Georgians have
been pro-Western, and somewhat confrontational with their Russian
neighbors. Like the Ukraine, Georgia aspires to NATO membership,
a policy that Russia opposes to the point of threatening both
countries. (Jamestown, AP, Spiegel) The Georgians have not only
deployed troops to Iraq, but sent more as part of a sort of "Georgian
surge" (AP, BBC) – this is in direct contrast to countries such as
Italy, Spain, Australia, and Japan, who have all discontinued their
operational involvement in Iraq. The United States recently concluded
a training evolution with Georgian troops outside Tbilisi.
Within the recognized borders of Georgia itself are two breakaway
regions that have enjoyed relative autonomy for years: Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Remember the Beslan school massacre in 2004? That attack
by Chechen terrorists occurred in North Ossetia, which remains part of
Russia. (Interestingly enough, the North Ossetians attacked the Russian
military during the December 1994 invasion of Chechnya.) These two
regions have engaged in low-level separatist operations for more than a
decade, involving occasional skirmishes and regular political actions
against the Georgian government. When Abkhazia declared independence
from Georgia in 1992, the declaration resulted in a conflict that
ended with a Georgian withdrawal and ethnic cleansing of Georgians,
Greeks, Armenians, and Russians by Abkhaz militants. In November of
2006, South Ossetia held a formal referendum in which nearly all
voters favored South Ossetic independence. (Global Security, BBC,
AP) The referendum was formally dismissed, or ignored outright,
by the international community – save for Russia.
Russian involvement in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been
extensive. Whether out of legitimate concern for the Ossetians, or
out of a desire to set an example for the West while punishing the
obstinance of a former subject, is subject to interpretation. Russia
has garrisoned so-called peacekeepers in both regions for years, and
the Russians have been known to make regular aerial incursions into
Georgian airspace. The Georgian military flies regular surveillance
missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia using unmanned aerial
vehicles. In April, a Russian MiG 29 aircraft was caught on video over
Abkhazia in the process of shooting down a Georgian surveillance
drone. (BBC) As a result, analysts spoke of the possibility of
war between Russia and Georgia over Abkhazia. (Guardian, UPI) The
diplomatic conflict continued through July and into early August. Last
week, the Israeli government discontinued drone sales to Georgia in
a bid to limit Russian support for Iran’s nuclear program. (Jerusalem
Post, Wired)
Fighting broke out earlier this week between the Georgian military and
South Ossetia’s rebel forces. Despite an initial ceasefire agreement,
fighting flared back up, eventually resulting in Georgian forces
shooting down two Russian aircraft. (Guardian, Times). The Russian
military responded by sending tanks into South Ossetia and bombing
Georgian air bases. The Russian incursion has allegedly escalated to
air attacks on Russian cities outside South Ossetia. How this incident
will end, and what its impact will be, is anyone’s guess.
While this is a conflict between Russia and Georgia, the international
overtones are obvious. Despite publicity stunts aimed at making the
Russian military appear modern and lethal, the majority of Russia’s
equipment is slowly deteriorating, and its ranks are filled with
inexperienced conscripts. As the Russian leadership consolidates its
political power, most of the countries formerly within its orbit have
either joined, or aspire to join, NATO. Russia’s protests at Kosovo’s
declaration of independence were ignored, and the Russian opposition
to America’s ballistic missile defense system has been politely
brushed aside – not to mention the diplomatic and economic capital
the Russians have expended on supporting Iran’s nuclear program. While
the current conflict is specifically about South Ossetia, the Kremlin
likely feels no pain over the diplomatic fallout of punishing Georgia
for its perceived insolence.
The Cold War may be over, but Russia remains a significant monkey
on the collective back of the West – as the West’s Georgian allies
are learning.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Tom Ordeman, Jr. is
a technical writer for a major defense contractor in Hampton Roads,
Virginia. Feedback: [email protected].