ARMENIAN SCENARIO
RIA Novosti
14:02 | 07/ 02/ 2008
Moscow. (Vyacheslav Nikonov for RIA Novosti) – On February 19, a
head of state will be elected in what is for us a friendly and very
important country. The elections in Armenia are very similar to those
Russia will hold in March.
The successor of the current president will run for the top position;
he is being opposed by representatives of the former government, and
his long standing opponents. As in Russia, the current government’s
nominee – Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian – has every chance of success.
As in Russia, the popularity of the current government in Armenia
rests on economic success. When Robert Kocharian’s team came to power
ten years ago Armenia was in a desperate position. It had suffered
several years of economic dislocation, absence of electricity and
heating. Today, Armenia, a country with no energy resources or any
other tangible natural resources, has one of the world’s most dynamic
economies. Its economy grew by 13.6% last year, one of the fastest
rates in the world. But statistics as such are of little interest
to the voters. What matters for them is how those statistics reflect
their well-being. During the past year, average incomes increased by
24.7%, while inflation did not exceed the Russian old dream rate of 6%.
Last year’s parliamentary elections testified to serious public
support for the current government. The ruling Republican Party, led
by Sarkisian, together with its ally and rival Prosperous Armenia,
headed by Gagik Tsarukian, received more than half of all votes and
two thirds of seats in parliament. Now this alliance has shored up
its power even further – at the presidential elections Tsarukian
will support Sarkisian. This partnership is as hard hitting as that
between Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev in Russia. The latest polls
give Sarkisian 47.5% of all votes, which are likely to guarantee his
victory in the first round.
Today, Yerevan looks like an enormous construction site. The prime
minister and his political consultants do not have to ponder over
election scenarios – Sarkisian is travelling all around the country,
and telling his compatriots about ambitious plans for spreading
the gas network, road and house construction, and the eradication
of poverty. He does not need a detailed program, and has drafted a
short document on the consolidation of statehood and promotion of
the principles of justice. Sarkisian cannot be accused of weakness
or lack of experience – before heading the government, he served in
various positions in security-related ministries, and his name is
associated with military victories in Karabakh.
Relations with Russia and the West are a big part of the election
campaign.
It is hard to notice anti-Russian attitudes in Armenia – Russia is
associated with hope and support. But the same is true of anti-Western
sentiment, which is only natural considering the existence of the
influential Armenian Diaspora countries such as the United States and
France. Sarkisian has a well-deserved reputation of a pro-Russian
politician. He has known Putin for a long time, since he worked in
CIS security-related agencies. But he is quite open to cooperation
with the West, which practically eliminates the possibility of a
foreign country conducting a large-scale campaign against him, as
has sometimes happened in post-Soviet republics.
In this position it will be difficult not to win. No opposition
candidate stands a chance, unless the government makes the mistake
of paying too much attention to them. For the time being, the most
prominent rival is the recent Speaker of Parliament and close associate
of the current leader Artur Bagdasarian, who the polls put in second
place with 13.4% of votes. He has suddenly turned into a vociferously
pro-western critic of the regime.
An active participant in every recent campaign, the leader of the
National Unity Party, Artashes Gegamian, is in fourth place with a
rating of 4.7%.
Ex-Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, and the leader of the historical
Dashnak Party Vice-Speaker of Parliament Vaan Ovannesian are well
known in the country. But the biggest sensation was the decision
of the first Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian to run for
the presidency. It has given not quite understandable hope to many
opponents of the current government to defeat it. It is comparable
to Mikhail Gorbachev running in the election race in Russia (he ran
for the presidency in 1996 but with no success).
Ter-Petrosian is trying to prove the unprovable – that he was a more
successful leader than Kocharian and Sarkisian. But his compatriots
have not forgotten the first half of the 1990s. Moreover, Ter-Petrosian
had to resign when under Western pressure he displayed readiness to
make tangible concessions on Karabakh and relations with Turkey. Such
conduct is not forgiven in Armenia. It will be difficult for him to
prove his good attitude to Russia. It was he who shut down all the
Russian schools in the country.
Half of the voters will not support him under any circumstances,
and he can hardly hope for more than third place and 7% of votes.
Could the consolidation of the opposition change the situation
before the elections? It seems unlikely, primarily because none of
the opposition leaders is accepted by the others. Ter-Petrosian,
who is the loudest in claiming the leadership of the opposition,
is also the most resented by the others. Sarkisian’s opponents will
not form a political alliance. The West is not likely to support an
oppositionist, either. Moreover, now that international observers
have, with a few reservations, declared the elections in neighboring
Georgia quite legitimate, they will find it rather difficult to
give the Armenian elections a lower rating for fear of looking
ridiculous. Unlike in Georgia, the elections in Armenia are being
held according to schedule; TV channels have not been shut down;
opposition supporters are not behind bars or in exile, nor under
criminal investigation. International monitoring will be very serious –
almost 300 observers in 1,923 constituencies.
Russia would like to see Armenia a stable and dynamically developing
country with a responsible government oriented towards constructive
relations with it. Strategically, Sarkisian’s nomination suits Moscow,
which has given him support at the top level. It would be appropriate
to take steps that would demonstrate our readiness to render Armenia
substantial economic assistance.
Regrettably, the pro-Russian forces in Armenia have been recently
weakened by Moscow’s decision to increase prices on gas exports.
Considering our financial capabilities Russia should list Armenia
as a priority recipient of its direct foreign aid. The main thing
is not to overdo with the public demonstration of our support. The
United States has been giving tangible assistance to Armenia for a
long time. Our policymakers should consider the role Armenia could
play in building relations with Georgia. For Armenia, which is under
transport blockade, transit via Georgia is a lifeline. The more tense
Russian-Georgian relations are, the more this lifeline is threatened.
Vyacheslav Nikonov is president of the Politika Foundation.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.