Author: Vorskanian Yeghisabet

Minister predicts 10-15% full-year economic decline

YEREVAN, August 29, /ARKA/. Armenia’s finance minister Tigran Davtian
argued today that the country’s full-year economic contraction will be
within 10-15%. In response to a question from ARKA news agency the
minister, who was speaking at a news conference at Novosti
international press center, said the full-year economic showing will
not be as worse as in the first seven months of the year, when the GDP
fell 18.5%.

The minister explained that a wide forecast gap is due to different
models of gauging up indices which involve a set of different factors.

`Economy is a very complex structure and to have in mind all factors is
actually impossible,’ he said, adding that a 10-15% outlook is close to
forecasts of international organizations. M.M. -0-

ECONOMIST PREDICTS 12%-14% FULL-YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE

ARKA
Aug 26, 2009

YEREVAN, August 26, /ARKA/. Manuk Yerghnyan, head of Economy and Values
think-tank and the managing partner of EV Consulting, predicted today
a 12-14% full-year economic contraction of the Armenian economy,
but declined to make an economic forecast for the next year, saying
the country’s GDP may either fall by 2% or rise as much.

In an exclusive interview with ARKA news agency, he said the economic
recovery is not likely in the second half of the year. According
to him, the slump in some sectors may even deepen and some large
companies may face serious difficulties in servicing their loans.

"I do not think we shall see a chain reaction; the level of financial
mediation in Armenia is the lowest among other transitional countries,’
he said, adding that the government emergency assistance to some
companies is expected to have a positive effect on the economy.

Earlier this month Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said the anti-crisis
measures taken by the government should result in a slowdown of the
decline later this year that would ultimately have made only 12% t
annually. The premier said the government also expected the Armenian
economy to grow by a modest 1% in 2010.

"I think the period of adaptation to current economic situation -I mean
the reduced amount of remittances, foreign investments and exports,
will end in 2009 and we=2 0shall see a more stable situation in 2010,
‘Yerghnyan said.

According to official figures of Armenian Central Bank, the amount of
remittances sent by Armenians working abroad to relatives in Armenia
via banks in the first six months of the year slashed by 33.2%
year-on-year to $446.7 million.

Armenia’s foreign trade in January-July fell 32.7% year-on-year to
707.9 billion Drams ($2.013. billion). Exports were down by 44.5%
to $352 million and imports reduced by almost 30% to $1.661 billion.

In a comment on a 15% economic decline of the Armenian economy
predicted by Fitch Ratings, Yergnyan said it is perhaps the worst
scenario.

According to the latest official figures, the country’s economy
continued to decline in July amid a deepening fallout from the global
recession, showing a 18.5% Gross Domestic Product contraction in the
seven months of 2009. ($1 – 375,39 дÑ~@амР°).

AZERBAIJANI DEFENSE MINISTRY RESPONDS TO ARMENIAN MINISTER’S THREAT

Today,Az
/55035.html
Aug 27 2009
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has responded to Armenian Defense Minister
Seyran Ohanyan’s threat of war.

Spokesman for the ministry Eldar Sabiroglu said it was not the first
similar statement by Ohanyan.

"It is unreasonable, because the international community exerts
influence on Armenia to solve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within
the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. The leadership
of Armenian army makes this kind of statements to mislead the people
and hide people’s distrust to the army. Azerbaijan has a very strong
army and is ready to prevent any aggression," he said.

Sabiroglu said there are two ways of solving the conflict and did
not rule out war, in case the occupied territories are not freed
peacefully.

"There are two ways of solution, peace or war. Azerbaijan does not
want bloodshed. We support peaceful settlement of the problem. But if
it is impossible, Azerbaijan is capable of liberating its lands. This
aggression can not last for ever," he said.

TIGRAN DAVTYAN: BUDGET SEQUESTRATION INAPPROPRIATE IN CRISIS

PanARMENIAN.Net
28.08.2009 16:33 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In a crisis, the budget sequestration is impractical,
because if the economy is in a recession, it is important to increase
spending and pursue expansive policies, Tigran Davtyan ,Armenia’s
minister of finance told a press conference in Yerevan today.

According to him, since the state is a serious player in the economy,
its task in these circumstances is to attract additional resources
and increase costs, like all the world countries do, if feasible.

"Despite the decline in incomes all over the world, governments
try not to reduce costs in order to stimulate the economy. Reduced
costs will mean a further negative impact on the GDP of the country,"
Mr. Davtyan explained.

In this context, in case of sequestration and reduction of income,
a decline in GDP for the past seven months in Armenia would surpass
18.5 per cent. As Tigran Davtyan stressed, the government of Armenia
has reduced the income of the budget and increased its expenditure, and
it was decided to compensate the gap at the expense of borrowed funds.

KIM KARDASHIAN IS CREATING NEW REALITY SERIES

Examiner.com
Aug 28 2009

Kim Kardashian is one of the hottest celebs in Hollywood. Kim knows
fashion, the glamour, and everything in between. But what does this
fab reality star now have in mind? Her very own reality show of
course, and no, its not another "Keeping Up With The Kardashains,"
or "Kourtney and Khloe Take Miami."

The sexy Armenian star who recently went blonde told Access Hollywood
that she is "creating and executive producing" a reality show
about public relations. Kardashian also went on the record that she
also wanted to be behind the camera. The starlet said, "I’ve always
wanted to get into producing. After my reality show is done, the next
step is producing. I definitely see myself in the producing chair,"
Kim said. "I’ve definitely seen the ins and outs of reality TV. I
definitely love reality TV shows. It’s something I’m passionate about."

The "untitled" show will be following her famous PR friends "Jonathan
Cheban and Simon Huck of Command Public Relations." Kim also told
Access Hollywood, "Every week we’ll have a different celebrity and
a different crisis and drama."

Kardashian’s creativity has been produced by Bunim and Murray
Productions, which is also credited by the two other Kardashian Shows,
as well as "The Real World" and "Project Runway." The pilot for the
show has already been shot, where the "untitled" reality show will
air next year.

AMBASSADOR VAHAGN MELIKYAN MEETS WITH CHAIRMAN OF UAE PARLIAMENT

ARMENPRESS:
August 26, 2009
Yerevan

Chairman of the parliament of the United Arab Emirates Abd al-Aziz
Abdallah al-Ghureyr received August 25 Armenian ambassador to UAE
Vahagn Melikyan.

Armenian Foreign Ministry’s Media and Information Department told
Armenpress the ambassador conveyed the message-invitation of the
Armenian NA Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan which was gratefully accepted
by the chairman.

During the meeting the parties discussed issues of cooperation of the
parliaments of the two countries, creation of parliamentary friendship
groups as well as prospects of development of bilateral relations.

With the request of Al-Ghureyr the ambassador presented the main
directions of Armenia’s foreign policy and regional policy. The
chairman of the UAE parliament noted that he is interested in the
development of relations with Armenia and it is necessary to undertake
necessary steps in that direction.

CENTRAL BANK OF ARMENIA PUTS INTO CIRCULATION NOTES WITH 100,000AMD VALUE

ARKA
Aug 25, 2009

YEREVAN, August 25. /ARKA/. According to the decision of the Board
of the Central Bank of Armenia made on August 24, a bank note with
a value of 100,000AMD is put into circulation, said member of the
Board Vakhtang Abrahamyan.

"It is our next step in the consistent policy of providing cash
turnover aimed at servicing businesses arranging big deals," Abrahamyan
told reporters.

He noted the 50,000AMD note put into circulation a few years ago took
its own niche and services around 7% of cash deals. Abrahamyan also
said the Armenian economy had a demand for 100,000AMD note due to
big bargains and necessity to diversify nominal values of bank notes.

"We think 100,000AMD note will take 3% niche in the cash turnover,"
Abrahamyan stressed.

CBA numismatist Gevorg Mughalyan in his turn stated the bank note is
very attractive from the view of numismatics by its theme and design.

He noted the front of the note has a fragment of icon of Mkrtum
Hovnatanyan – appearance of Abgar the Fifth Edessian king who according
to Armenian historian Movses Khorenatsi was the first of Armenian
kings to adopt Christianity.

"A fragment of a map showing the location of Edessia which was very
close to historical Armenia is in the background," he said.

Mughalyan noted the reverse side of the bank note has an image of an
ancient canvas being kept in Vatican which narrates how King Abgar
the Fifth being sick turned to Jesus Christ who gave him a piece of
cloth with his vivid picture through St. Thaddeus Apostle.

Head of the CBA payment system and money turnover department Suren
Simonyan said the 50,000AMD note was taken as an example of the most
secure from counterfeit and falsification which has been perfected
several times.

"For the first time in the history of Armenian bank notes we have
used so called four-color gravure which is technically very hard to
implement and gives additional guard to the note," he stressed.

Simonyan added he is sure the bank note corresponds to international
standards. ($1 – 375.28AMD).

SERZH SARGSYAN: DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE IS ARMENIAN NATION’S DISPLAY OF RESOLUTION FOR BUILDING THEIR OWN COUNTRY ON THEIR OWN LAND

Noyan Tapan
Aug 25, 2009

YEREVAN, AUGUST 25, NOYAN TAPAN. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
sent a congratulatory address on the occasion of the 19th anniversary
of the Declaration of Armenia’s Independence. The address which was
sent from the Press Office of RA President read:

"19 years ago this day, the Supreme Council of Armenia adopted the
Declaration of Independence, which was a historic and guiding document
for the future of our country. It was the will of the people who went
through immeasurable sufferings, who paved its way in the history
with the cross, writings and sweat, and when necessary also with
the sword. It embodied the resolve of the people to build their own
country on their own land.

The Declaration of Independence was received by the whole Armenian
nation with great enthusiasm, as it was called upon to realize the
centuries-old Armenian dream of restoring independent statehood.

With this document which told the world the news of the political
freedom of the people of Armenia we declared our way of ascent in
which our Republic and our nation have been pursuing during the last
years being faithful to principles stipulated in the Declaration.

I cordially congratulate you on the occasion of the anniversary of
the Declaration of Independence and wish you prosperity."

ARMENIA NEEDS TO BE CLEARLY EXPLAINED THAT IRRATIONAL, UNCONSTRUCTIVE POSITION WILL BE FAILURE: TOP AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL

Today.Az
cs/54914.html
Aug 24 2009
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Presidential Administration’s Political Analysis and
Public Relations Department Chief Elnur Aslanov spoke in an interview
with Day.Az.

Day.Az: Recently, Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev held a meeting on
the Caspian cooperation in Astrakhan. How do you comment on the fact
that Moscow insists on the ban on deployment of military forces in
the Caspian Sea by non-regional countries while the U.S. is actively
cooperating with Azerbaijan as a part of the program "The Caspian
Guard"?

Elnur Aslanov: Azerbaijan is an active supporter of peace in the
region. We cooperate with the United States in a number of issues,
as well as with Russia. In all these respects Azerbaijan has an
understanding of national security issues. Everything we do meets
our national interest and is aimed at ensuring national security.

Q: How can replacement of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs impact
settlement of Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: A few days ago, I commented on this issue. This is issue of staff
rotation and inherent in all spheres. Naturally, we hope and expect
that each new co-chair will do everything so that Armenia will
eventually free the Azerbaijani territories.

Armenia needs to be clearly and unambiguously explained that the
irrational and unconstructive position will be failure. Today, Armenia
is totally crushed by global financial crisis and the situation in
the economic and political sphere in this country will deteriorate
every day. It is obvious to all. How long the Armenian leadership
will try to give hope to its citizens denying them democratic rights
and opportunities to live in peace with its neighbors? The Armenian
leadership needs to have a rational look at the blunders and mistakes,
because time is working against them.

Q: Please comment on the recent withdrawal of Georgia from CIS. What
impact this move can have on CIS?

A: This move was expectable following August events that took place
last year. The two member states had difficult relationship within
one organization and analysts described the possibility of their
improvement in the short term as remote.

As to CIS, this organization has experienced great difficulty in
proving its reliability and efficiency for many years. There are,
of course, attempts to save, change the format, to improve the
atmosphere … but, everything is solved at the bilateral level and
within personal relations of the States in the CIS. Of course, if
you ask what will happen to the CIS, the answer is that the CIS will
continue to operate, because there are certain economic preferences
of this union. But when one member of the Commonwealth occupies the
territory of another member, then naturally the question arises as to
how long this situation can persist. CIS is far from more effective
unions that provide economic security and prospect to their members

Q: In light of recent events, which include the Russia-Azerbaijan gas
agreement, intergovernmental agreement on the Nabucco project signed
in Ankara and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey,
how you see future of the Nabucco project?

A: It is clear that Nabucco will be realized, especially since the
financial crisis in the West for a number of projections is on the
wane. This is a project of geo-economic nature, so it is of a very
big interest. But at the same time, we can see how more expedient
routes and projects are skillfully and efficiently organized. At a
time when everyone should think about its economic benefits no one
does not have to wait since we do not live in a period of planned
economy. Accordingly, some Western countries should understand
importance of such categories as mobility and speed, for a proverb
says: "Who are not at risk, he does not drink champagne."

Q: How do you assess political situation in the country on the eve
of municipal elections?

A: Municipal elections are an important step in terms of development
of a democratic state. Therefore, each of us should treat them with
utmost responsibility. We have a tradition and experience to hold
open and democratic elections and stability and desire to build
a democratic state. Of course, there is also a weak opposition,
which has already announced some blocs and alliances. Hopefully,
though with difficulty, they still be able to organize interesting
and effective promotion of their ideas and suggestions. I think,
it will be more interesting to discuss political situation in the
country in a period closer to the elections.

TURKISH POLITICAL, PUBLIC FIGURES FIGURED OUT?

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Aug 24 2009
Armenia

Racist notes were found in the notebook that belongs to Ibrahim
Å~^ahin, a former task group officer and arrestee involved in the
Ergenekon case. Sahin was a member of the illegal S-1 group.

The Turkey-based Radikal daily reported that anti-Armenian and
anti-Kurdish notes were contained in Å~^ahin’s notebook. According to
the bill of indictment, in a telephone conversation he called himself
head of an anti-Armenian unit. The following note was contained in
the notebook: "There are 580 Armenians, Syrians and Yezids among the
DTP (Democratic Society Party) members. Hikmet Cetin’s father is a
source of financing for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and ASALA. The
grandmother of Devlet Bahceli, leader of the MHP (Nationalist Movement
Party, a political wing of grey wolves, a radical anti-Armenian force)
is an Armenian. Mehmet Eymur (former head of the anti-terrorist
department who was at the head of operations against ASALSA) is an
Armenian as well.