INSTABILITY INSIDE OF TURKEY "INFECTS" THE ENTIRE REGION
by Sergei Shakaryants
As Long As Turkey Does Not Give Up The Role Of "Regional Dictator," Its Neighbors Will Be
Afraid Of The Use Of A Rich Arsenal Of Political And Military Provocations By Ankara
Source: Severny Kavkaz (Nalchik), No. 21, June 05-11, 2007, p. EV
Agency WPS
Defense And Security (Russia)
June 13, 2007 Wednesday
Are "spy terrorists" in Iran and "Islamist terrorists" in Georgia
links in the same chain?
To slow down the process of splitting society into supporters of
secular and Islamic paths of development, the Turkish elite decided to
start a new stage of active foreign policy based on forceful methods
of influencing practically all its geographic neighbors except for
Azerbaijan and Armenia.
To slow down the process of splitting society into supporters of
secular and Islamic paths of development, the Turkish elite decided to
start a new stage of active foreign policy based on forceful methods
of influencing practically all its geographic neighbors except for
Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Syria, Iraq, Iran and Georgia remain (we do not mention Greece and
Cyprus because they have been "prohibited" as targets for provocations
a priori because inside of NATO, Ankara is "held in its leash").
At this point, it is necessary to recall that Turks blew up the
train moving from Iran to Syria and laid all the blame on "Kurd
terrorists." It remained simply unclear why Ankara thought that
this official Turkish version would be believed because the Kurds
never declared a jihad on Syria or Iran. Evidently for additional
explanation of the interest of the Kurds in this terrorist act, the
Turkish party reported that an attempt was made to transport various
kinds of armament from Iran to Syria in the train under the disguise of
industrial and agricultural cargoes. This meant that simultaneously,
Ankara tried to play up to the accusations of Damascus and Tehran on
the part of the US, for example, the accusations that Syria and Iran
were allegedly accomplices of terrorists in the Middle East.
Everything is simpler with regard to Iraq. Having once again accused
authorities of the Kurd Autonomy (North Iraq) of hiding of militants
of the Kurd Workers’ Party, Turkish generals moved reinforced
units of their troops, including heavy armored vehicles, to the
Turkish-Iraqi border. Active re-deployment and the concentration of
Turkish troops, including special forces, have been going on there
and on the Iranian-Turkish border adjacent to Iraq in the last few
weeks. Recently, Ankara announced the complete closing of its borders
with Iraq. Very few people doubt now that military invasion of Turks
into North Iraq is inevitable. Warnings and persuasions on the part
of the US and NATO do not seem to help.
According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, practically for the whole
day of May 28, bitter fighting was going on in West Azerbaijan,
30 kilometers from the Iranian-Turkish border, between Iranian
border guards, security forces and units of the corps of guards
of the Islamic revolution on the one side and an unknown group of
saboteurs-terrorists being a part of, as Iranian sources put it,
a "spy network" that a certain party tried to insert deep into the
territory of Iran. In the course of the fighting, Iranians killed
15 terrorists (as of the morning of May 29), whereas they themselves
lost seven people (members of the corps of the guards of the Islamic
revolution). Incidentally, Iran did not report whose spy networks
were defeated by its security agencies 30 kilometers from the border
with Turkey. Nor was anything said about the national composition
of the group of saboteurs who tried to penetrate deep into Iranian
territory. In any case, the group was watched (there are grounds to
believe that Iran has been warned about the invasion from Turkey)
and was encircled. After a proposal to surrender was declined by the
terrorists, Iranian forces started their physical elimination.
So, we should not be surprised if some time later, Tehran will openly
accuse Ankara of an attempt to interfere into the internal affairs
of Iran and wage a policy of terror on the state level. The reason
was that at the end of May, some ex-region forces (in which both the
US and Turkey could be singled out) once again tried to destabilize
the situation in North Iran. That is why opinions of people in Iran
and outside it differed. Observers think that it is possible that
Ankara has really prepared and is preparing for an invasion (although
a short-term and local one) not into North Iraq but into North Iran
"to help the insurgents" from the part of the Iranian Azerbaijanis
who decided to struggle actively against the "Farsi chauvinism"
under the influence of American propaganda.
Ankara announced the closing of its border with Iraq. Its borders
with Iran remained the same, that is, actually transparent. This
means that they are prepared for another attempt of infiltration by
a subversion group into Iranian territory. It is not incidental that
after May 31, mass media in Turkey and, according to its initiative,
some mass media of Azerbaijan, started saying that Kurd armed
forces allegedly got engaged into a battle against Iranians in West
Azerbaijan! There is no logic in this. Why do the Kurds need to start
a war on three fronts at once when they are virtually engaged into
a civil war in Iraq and in a permanent war against Turkey? The Kurds
also know better than others that Iran is very attentively watching
what is happening on the territories of Iraq and Turkey adjacent to
it. That is why the version was more credible that, on May 28, the
Turkish military simply tried to test the vigilance and readiness of
Iran to various kinds of combat operations. Nobody can guess if it
was a plan of Turkish politicians or military or if they actively
fulfilled the order of Americans who announced the beginning of a
"non-lethal action" against Iran in the region. Only time will tell.
Finally, it is necessary to speak about Georgia. In the report from
Tbilisi on May 30, there is seemingly no hint about the "Turkish
trace." Along with this, some members of the Georgian parliament and
representatives of some non-parliamentary parties and human rights
activists received letters in their email boxes in which the terrorist
group Islamic Army threatened to attack the Georgian military in Iraq
should Tbilisi refuse to give up its plans to increase its military
contingent in this Arab country. The anonymous terrorists also promised
"to blow up the entire South Caucasus."
Incidentally, versions appeared speaking about the appearance of
threats on behalf of the Islamic Army in Russia too. For example,
it is rumored that no matter who works this plot out, it may serve
as a pretext for a proposal of deployment of American AMD elements
on the territory of Georgia. It is possible that Washington counts
on this very turn of events. In case of their deployment in Georgia,
American radars will be able to watch not only Iran and will also
ensure the observation of tests of the Russian intercontinental
missiles at the Kapustin Yar testing range.
Along with this, there is also a more obvious version in the context
of the actions of Turkey in conditions of internal confrontation. Who
composes the Muslim population of Georgia? Azerbaijanis, Turks of
Meskhetia, Kistin Chechens and Adjar people…all these groups of the
population are one way or another connected with Turkey. This does not
mean that some of the representatives of these ethnic groups inside
Georgia decide to blow up the already fragile internal political and
ethnic peace. This means that for some reason, it is simply beneficial
for Ankara to have instability established in all or in the majority
of the countries bordering with Turkey onshore. In this case, it is
impossible to rule out that the goal of such virtual blackmailing
is the creation of an atmosphere of mistrust between the Christian
and Muslim population of Georgia. In this case, the Turkish military
would receive a chance that something happens almost in all neighboring
countries and in Turkey the situation does not go out of control due
to the military alone.
In our opinion, a preliminary conclusion may be the following: as
long as Turkey does not give up the temptation to play the dominating
role of the "regional dictator," including such play in Transcaucasia,
not a single nation living nearby will have any guarantees that Ankara
does not wish to use its entire rich arsenal of political and military
provocations against it.