Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
Feb 15 2008
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ARMENIA: HOW THE COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP
VYACHESLAV NIKONOV, VARTAN TOGANYAN,
Moscow
Vyacheslav NIKONOV, President of the Russkiy Mir Foundation
Last week the Russkiy Mir Foundation set up in Armenia the first
Russian resource center that makes the modern Russian literature,
Internet resources, audio and video resources and the Russian
language teaching methods and programs accessible to Armenia’s
inhabitants. The center was opened in Yerevan State University, many
people including members of the press attended the event. We will
continue to set up such centers in the CIS member-states and other
countries.
Last week the results of the poll conducted by the English service of
public opinion were made public. It became clear that the situation
in Armenia resembles at first sight the election situation in Russia.
There is a candidate whose status can be compared with that of First
Vice Premier Dmitry Medvedev. This is Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan.
There are two candidates who can be compared with the Communist Party
leader Gennady Zyuganov and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party
Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Those are former Speaker of Armenia’s
Parliament Artur Bagdasaryan and the first President of Armenia Levon
Ter-Petrossian. The others belong to the third category.
Sarkisyan’s rating was about 51 percent of the vote. If to take into
account those who have not decided yet who to vote for, he has gained
an advantage over his rivals and could win the election in the first
round. This success is based not only on the administrative resource
(built-in advantage) but also on the profound socioeconomic
groundwork. Armenia is one of the dynamic countries in both the
post-Soviet space and the world. Its GDP growth makes up 13 percent.
Only a couple of countries have such performance. If to take into
account that Armenia has neither oil nor gas resources, it is very
impressive.
Now the people’s mood is better than it was ten, five or two years
ago. In outward appearance the country also changes for the better.
The Russian factor plays a certain role. Sarkisyan is rightly
considered to be a man enjoying Moscow’s favor. In Armenia there are
no anti-Russian attitudes, on the contrary pro-Russian attitudes are
very strong. According to the same public opinion poll, over 80
percent of the Armenian population sympathize with Russia.
Sarkisyan is supported by the Russian authorities. He is on friendly
terms with President Vladimir Putin. They have known each other for
many years. They headed their countries’ military, security and law
enforcement agencies simultaneously before Putin became Prime
Minister in 1999. They cooperated within the CIS framework in
different coordinating military, security and law enforcement
agencies. Sarkisyan showed himself to good advantage last year when
he was the Chairman of the Intergovernmental Committee on Economic
Cooperation. Indeed, we made such a breakthrough in stepping up the
economic relations only with this country – 68 percent in 2007.
So, in terms of politics and electoral base, Sarkisyan has a good
chance of winning the elections. But it is not only electoral bases
that matter before the election in Armenia. In the country a fierce
struggle has been waged, which becomes apparent in the street
election campaigning and the press. In Armenia there are more than
300 foreign observers alone, with only about 1900 polling stations.
If to speak about Sarkisyan’s main rivals, the public opinion polls
show that they are much less popular than he is. Bagdasaryan’s rating
is 13 percent, that of Ter-Petrossian is 12 percent. The question was
raised about the uniting of the opposition and the creation of the
single opposition front against Sarkisyan. There is almost no chance
that the single front will be formed. Some political leaders
conducted their campaign against Ter-Petrossian rather than
Sarkisyan. Bagdasaryan and Ter-Petrossian alliance seemed to be less
fabulous and, at the same time, not very realistic. An official
alliance could be built before February 9, when it was possible to
withdraw one’s candidature.
But even then that alliance would not work in full measure. Firstly
they are very ambitious policy-makers. Apart from that, the public
opinion polls show that only a half of Bagdasaryan’s voters are ready
to back Ter-Petrossian. But if Ter-Petrossian withdrew his
candidature, his voters would back up Bagdasaryn. Ter-Petrossian
would gain little by Bagdasaryan’s withdrawing his candidature and,
on the contrary, Bagdasaryan would gain much by Ter-Petrossian’s
withdrawing his candidature. But the latter is impossible. I cannot
imagine Ter-Petrossian withdrawing his candidature.
The opposition often takes people to the street. The Saturday rally
was just another case in which, according to various estimates, about
30 thousand people took part. It is noteworthy that this was the most
organized and prepared opposition rally. At the rally Ter-Petrossian
said that if the authorities did not want to treat the opposition
kindly, the opposition members could use force. In my opinion the
election will not be calm. The opposition will not put up with the
election returns. But I am far from believing that a color revolution
may take place.
The opposition aggressively uses its sham connections with Russia.
The opposition members say that they are guided by Moscow but what
they do is juggle with facts. Information about an interview given by
Ter-Petrossian to the Russian daily `Izvestia’ caused a stir. As a
matter of fact, `Izvestia’ published no interview with him. The same
is true of the statement that supposedly Ter-Petrossian came to
Moscow and met Dmitry Medvedev. In Medvedev’s Secretariat I was told
that the meeting had not and would not take place.
Ter-Petrossian is not regarded as a pro-Russian politician. I should
note that under Ter-Petrossian the Russian schools were shut down.
The opposition uses the Nagorno-Karabakh factor in its
domestic-policy campaign. Sarkisyan is accused of his belonging to
the Nagorno-Karabakh clan. The opposition mass media speculate that
if Sarkisyan wins the election, the Nagorno-Karabakh inhabitants will
take up all state positions and that the prices will be brought down
for them.
The status of Nagorno-Karabakh is not touched upon during the
election campaign. Obviously, there is a consensus. The official mass
media suspect that Ter-Petrossian may continue to support the
compromise on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Ter-Petrossian denies that.
On the whole, the Nagorno-Karabakh factor is less important than the
issues pertaining to the authorities’ honesty, the economic situation
and the social problems.
Vartan TOGANYAN, General Director of the Eurasian Media Group
I would like to explode some myths about the presidential election in
Armenia. Ter-Petrossian and Bagdasaryan have used the Russian factor
for a long time saying that Russia backs neither of the candidates
and keeps in touch with some Armenian policy-makers including the
opposition members and that under Ter-Petrossian the relations with
Russia developed aggressively.
The second myth is as follows: the opposition leaders cast doubt on
the entire economic policy that is pursued in the country. This way,
the electorate and the foreign (including Russian) big business are
warned that the results of the economic policy may be revised. This
threatens to seriously destabilize the situation in the country.
Another myth is that the government impedes the election process. But
we know that the number of the observers exceeds the number of
election observers in other post-Soviet countries. The opposition is
on the radar screen.
The last issue, which is actively tried to cash in on, is that the
Russian press undoubtedly supports the opposition candidates. Many
Armenian policy-makers give the Russian press interviews, therefore
the conclusions about unconditional support should not be drawn.
The material is based on the experts’ addresses to Russian News and
Information Agency RIA Novosti that organized the round table
`Presidential election in Armenia: how the country will develop’.
February 15, 2008
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