Author: Vardapetian Ophelia

CHESS INTERNATIONAL TOURNAMENT LAUNCHED IN SEVAN

A1+
[12:07 pm] 10 July, 2007

Chess international tournament has launched in the town of Sevan and
the meetings of the forth tour have already completed. Five of ten
participants represent Armenia.

Neither foreign, nor Armenian participants play successfully. We
have great expectations from Tigran Poghosyan, who is a leading
chessman. However, Tigran was defeated in the second tour, but he
played successfully in next two tours and has got 2 scores.

Gopal from India, Vovk form the Ukraine and David Harutunyan from
Georgia top the match list by 2.5 scores each.

TER-PETROSYAN STANDS NO CHANCE

Lragir.am
10-07-2007 16:57:54

If the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan were nominated
in 2008, he would stand almost no chance, thinks Garnik Isagulyan,
adviser to the first president. He held a news conference on July 10
at the Friday Club.

"The reasons are clear. The office of every president is remembered
by the events that took place during his office. I do not want to
deny the victory of 1994, and Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s contribution
as the president of the Republic of Armenia. But I repeat when we
compare what we eventually got, the political line that was adopted
and where it would have led us, I think the society will never forget
it," Garnik Isagulyan says.

He says if Levon Ter-Petrosyan is named, although he has not stated
likelihood yet, there will be political analyses, reports, opinions.

"Simply my concern and preoccupation is that in our political elite,
the opposition, people have been unable so far to chose or discover
or give someone a chance for expression, therefore we always face
back. I think, unfortunately, this is the reason why the opposition
has been unable to orient. Everyone thinks they are the right person
but when the common candidate is concerned, everyone thinks the other
cannot be this candidate.

Therefore, the All-Armenian Movement uses this opportunity to put
up Levon Ter-Petrosyan as a common candidate. I think it is hardly
possible, since I know the representatives of our elite well," Garnik
Isagulyan says.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN ARF AND FAIR RUSSIA PARTY SIGNED IN MOSCOW

Yerkir.am
July 06, 2007

On July 3, the ARF delegation including member of the ARF Bureau
Vahan Hovhannissian, representative of the ARF’s Supreme Body Armen
Rustamian, officer in charge of the Hay Dat Moscow Office Yuri Navoyan
met the chairman of the Fair Russia Party, Chairman of the Russian
Federal Council Sergey Mironov.

Issues connected with bilateral and international cooperation
were discussed during the meeting. An agreement was reached among
others that the two Parties will organize exchange of legislative
experience. A working meeting of leftist Parties will be held in
autumn in Moscow to establish a regional association of socialist
and social-democratic Parties in the CIS. The ARF and the Fair Russia
Party signed a cooperation agreement after which the representatives
of the two Parties had a joint press conference.

Armen Rustamian and Sergey Mironov commented on the role of
their Parties in the political systems of Russia and Armenia, a
series of legislative initiatives as well as issues of inter-party
cooperation. Mironov expressed his confidence that cooperation between
the ARF and the Fair Russia Party will contribute to the strengthening
of ties between the leftist Parties in the CIS.

Vahan Hovhannissian stated that establishment of a regional association
of leftist Parties of the CIS is an urgent task. Armen Rustamian
stressed that cooperation is established between two political Parties
that have similar value systems. Rustamian emphasized that the existing
strategic cooperation between Armenia and Russia obliges to have such
cooperation between Parties.

Rustamian believes the signed agreement is meant to use the tremendous
potential that has been accumulated on the inter-governmental level.

Agreement On Cooperation between the "Fair Russia:
Homeland/pensioners/life" Party (the Russian Federation) and the
Armenian Revolutionary Party (Republic of Armenia)

the "Fair Russia: Homeland/Pensioners/Life" Party (the Russian
Federation) and the Armenian Revolutionary Party (Republic of Armenia),
hereinafter referred to as "Parties",

Sharing the values of social justice and patriotism, Deriving from
the principles of sovereignty and independence, full equality, mutual
respect and non-interference into the Parties’ internal affairs,
Building on the tradition of centuries-old friendship and good
neighborly relations between the Russian and the Armenian nations,

Aiming at the strengthening of mutual trust and understanding and
establishment of more constructive relations between the Russian
and the Armenian nations, Taking into consideration the geopolitical
realities that affect the national interests of Russia and Armenia,
and taking into consideration the contribution of public diplomacy
to ensuring peace and stability in the South Caucasus and adjacent
regions, Reaffirming their determination to ensure a dignified life for
the working class, pensioners, war and labor veterans, and enhancement
of opportunities for fulfillment of the potential of the youth,

Have agreed on the following:

1. To sign and implement the present agreement on cooperation.

Each of the Parties shall implement the present agreement in accordance
with its national legislation, the by-laws of the Parties, and based
on its political principles.

2. Carry out mutual cooperation in the following sectors: – development
of inter-party political dialog, – support to strengthening and
development of th ethe political, defense, economic, cultural and other
relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia,
– protection of the interests of the Russian and Armenian communities
in the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation respectively,
and creation of favorable conditions for the Parties for efficient
work of their citizens abroad, – exchange of experience on party
building and party activities, fostering international relations for
each of the Parties.

3. Cooperate in the following format: – exchange visits of the Parties’
delegations on different levels, -organization of joint social,
political and other events on issues of interest for the Parties, –
organizing consultations and exchange of opinions, – regular exchange
of information on the Parties’ activities, – ensuring information
coverage of the Parties’ activities in Russia and Armenia respectively,
– mutual support aimed at fostering international relations with
friendly Parties and movements, – coordination of the Parties’
positions in different international forums and organizations, –
exchange of experience, training and capacity building, – fostering
ties between the parliamentary factions of the two Parties in
the legislative bodies of Russia and Armenia, – establishment and
development of ties between the Parties’ regional, youth, student
and other structures, – cooperation on other issues of mutual interest.

The present agreement shall serve as the foundation for any further
agreements and programs deemed necessary by the Parties.

The Parties can revise or terminate the agreement by extending the
respective notice to the other Party. If one of the Parties notifies
the other about its intention not to follow the provisions of the
present agreement, the agreement shall be terminated upon receipt of
the Party of such notification.

All annexes and amendments to the present agreement shall be made in
writing and be signed by the Parties’ authorized representatives.

The agreement shall enter into force upon signature by the Parties.

The agreement is made on July 3, 2007, in Moscow, in two copies in
Russian and Armenian languages, the originals deposited with each of
the Parties being equally valid.

On behalf of the FAIR RUSSIA: HOMELAND/PENSIONERS/LIFE PARTY Sergey
MIRONOV

On behalf of the ARMENIAN REVOLUTIONARY FEDERATION PARTY Armen
RUSTAMIAN

RIA Novosti, Russie
4 juillet 2007

Haut-Karabakh: pas de progrès dans le règlement du conflit (président
de l’APCE)
22:06 | 04/ 07/ 2007

EREVAN, 4 juillet – RIA Novosti. Il n’y a pas de progrès dans le
règlement du conflit dans le Haut-Karabakh, a estimé mercredi le
président de l’Assemblée parlementaire du Conseil de l’Europe (APCE),
René van der Linden, rapporte le service de presse de l’Assemblée
Nationale (parlement) d’Arménie.

Lors de sa rencontre mercredi avec le président de l’Assemblée
Nationale d’Arménie, Tigran Torossian, le président de l’APCE a
notamment déclaré que rien ne se faisait toujours pour sensibiliser
l’opinion publique à un règlement négocié du conflit.

Tigran Torossian a pris note de cette observation de René van der
Linden, tout en déplorant que tous n’en faisaient pas de même.

Et d’ajouter que le principal indice dans la question relative au
règlement dans le Haut-Karabakh est cette prise de position qui est
en train de se former en Arménie, dans le Haut-Karabakh et en
Azerbaïdjan.

"Et cet indice témoigne du fait que nul ne cultive la haine à l’égard
de l’autre peuple et ne mène de propagande militariste ni en Arménie,
ni dans le Haut-Karabakh", a poursuivi le président de l’Assemblée
Nationale d’Arménie.

Selon Tigran Torossian, une situation tout à fait contraire est
cependant observée en Azerbaïdjan, et le preuve en est, entre autres,
la réaction à la visite d’intellectuels de l’Azerbaïdjan et de
l’Arménie à Erevan, à Stepanakert et à Bakou.

"En Arménie et dans le Haut-Karabakh, cette initiative a été
appréciée à sa juste valeur, alors qu’à Bakou, elle s’est
principalement heurtée à une condamnation et à des manifestations de
protestation, tant par le biais des médias qu’au cours même des
rencontres", a souligné le président du parlement arménien.

Cela dit, Tigran Torossian a fait remarquer que cela se trouvait en
contradiction flagrante avec la résolution 1416 de l’Assemblée
parlementaire du Conseil de l’Europe qui insiste sur
l’inadmissibilité absolue de la propagande de la guerre et de la
haine.

Selon le président de l’Assemblée Nationale d’Arménie, les
organisations internationales n’apporteront leur concours concret au
règlement du conflit dans le Haut-Karabakh que si elles accordent une
évaluation impartiale à l’attitude face au problème dans l’un et
l’autre pays.

"On ne doit certes pas lier aux élections les manifestations de la
haine et la propagande de la guerre. Quoi qu’il en soit, lors des
élections parlementaires et à la veille des présidentielles en
Arménie, il n’y avait rien de pareil dans le pays", a déclaré Tigran
Torossian.

Le président du parlement arménien a tout particulièrement insisté
sur l’importance d’une évaluation objective qui permettrait de voir
correctement la situation et de faire des conclusions pertinentes, ce
qui constituerait déjà une contribution de poids dans le règlement du
conflit dans le Haut-Karabakh.

DERRY CITY FACE TRIP TO ARMENIA

RTE.ie, Ireland
June 29 2007

Derry City have been drawn against Armenian side FC Pyunik in the
first qualifying round of the Champions League today.

The Candystripes will begin their European adventure at home on 17/18
July before travelling to Armenia for the return leg a week later.

Derry were in the draw after Shelbourne opted out of the competition,
and will face a stern test in the second round if they progress after
being drawn with Shakhtar Donetsk of Ukraine.

Last season’s FAI Cup and Eircom League Cup winners are still without
a manager, with Peter Hutton currently in the role on a caretaker basis
and the long trip to Armenia is likely to prove to be a testing one.

Elsewhere, Carnegie Premier League side Linfield were draw with Swedish
club Elfsborg, with Debrecen of Hungaria awaiting the winners of that
game in the second qualifying round.

ARMENIAN MANUFACTURERS AND BUSINESSMEN UNION, ADA AND ASSOCIATION OF GREEK EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENT

ARMENPRESS

Jun 27 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 27, ARMENPRESS: Armenian Manufacturers and Businessmen
Union, Armenian Development Agency (ADA) and Association of
Greek Exporters and Importers signed today business cooperation
agreements. The documents were signed by the director of Armenian
Manufacturers and Businessmen Union Arsen Ghazarian, head of ADA
Vahagn Movsisian and head of the Association of Greek Exporters and
Importers Tomas Vassaras.

A. Ghazarian said that in comparison with Armenian-Greek inter-state
relations the business ties between the two countries are quite
weak which may be explained with two-sided passivity of studying and
assessing each other’s markets and risks.

"Armenia’s annual trade turnover with Greece amounts to 10 million
USD," Arsen Ghazarian said, adding that Greece may successfully add
the volume of the products which Armenia is importing from Turkey.

Ghazarian said that the aim of the signing of the agreement is to make
the markets closer by conduction of business forums and exhibitions,
and increase the trade turnover.

TURKEY: WHAT CHANCE FOR RELIGIOUS FREEDOM IN TURKEY’S ELECTIONS?
By Dr. Otmar Oehring, Head of the Human Rights Office of Missio

Forum 18, Norway

June 28 2007

Turkey is due to hold parliamentary elections on 22 July, which will
have a crucial impact on the presidential election due in autumn.

Both elections will strongly influence the chances
of greater freedom of thought, conscience and
belief, Otmar Oehring of the German Catholic charity Missio
sio-ueber-sich/leitthemen/menschenrechte/index.htm l
notes. Turkish religious minorities Forum 18 News Service has spoken
to are highly concerned about the outcome of the elections. For,
as Dr Oehring observes in this personal commentary for Forum 18
, Turks who want to see genuine freedom
of thought, conscience and religion have little expectation that
either the parliamentary or presidential election will bring any
improvement. No political party with any chance of gaining real power
wants either to tackle the dangerous media intolerance of religious
minorities or to take the dramatic changes necessary to usher in
genuine religious freedom.

No Turkish presidential candidate has been found who is acceptable to
both parliament and the "deep state," the nationalist circles in the
army, police, National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) secret police
and state administration which regard themselves as the custodians
of the Ataturkist legacy. Turkey is now due to hold parliamentary
elections on 22 July, which may have crucial impact on the presidential
election. A presidential election is due in autumn 2007, but no firm
date for this has been set. At the time of the failed presidential
election earlier this year, debate was fierce on what role Islam
should play in the state. This debate remains unresolved, with both
sides as far apart as ever.

Politicians have been preoccupied with the political crisis over the
failure of parliament and the "deep state" to agree a new president,
leaving President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to continue until a new candidate
is agreed, most probably in September. No senior politicians have
shown any interest in granting greater freedom of thought, conscience
and belief to non-Muslim religious minorities.

Debate has instead focused on whether the governing Justice and
Development Party (AKP) is a party in line with Turkey’s interpretation
of secularism.

Religious minorities face increasing threats of physical violence.

Murders of religious minority leaders have been increasing
– one Catholic priest in 2006 (see F18News 26 July 2006
=817) and three
Protestants in April 2007. Turkish Christians have told Forum 18 that
a key factor in these murders is the overt intolerance of non-Muslim
minorities promoted by the media – and that unless this is tackled,
more murders will take place. Politicians have made no serious attempt
to tackle this serious threat to freedom of thought, conscience and
religion (see forthcoming F18News article).

The one major religious minority that has not suffered violence or
been excluded from the political process are the Alevi Muslims, who
make up about 20 per cent of the population. However, they have faced
discrimination over recent years and their right to be accepted as a
religious community independent of the state-run Sunni Muslim majority
community has never been accepted by the Turkish state (see F18News
12 October 2005
and 26 July 2006 ) .

Several political parties of differing views are trying to recruit
Alevis as candidates in the forthcoming election. The governing AKP
has tried to entice leading members of the Cem Foundation, the Alevi
body closest to the government, to become candidates. Most of the
main parties view the Alevis not as a religious minority whose right
to religious freedom should be respected, but as a source of votes.

The optimism that many in Turkey and Europe had in 2006
and earlier that the political establishment was ready
to begin tackling the discrimination against non-Muslim
minorities has disappeared (see F18News 18 January 2007
=901). Why has nothing
happened?

It could be because of the election campaign – no-one has the time or
the interest to promote the rights of people in religious minorities.

Even AKP politicians, who might be in favour of EU accession despite
the freedoms for non-Muslim communities this may bring, see EU
accession – if it happens – as taking place in the distant future.

During the election campaign the AKP has behaved as nationalistically
as other parties, so it will not commit itself to doing anything for
non-Muslim minorities. These are seen by many Turks – and are depicted
in the mass media – as traitors or as alien people in Turkey.

Religious minorities Forum 18 has spoken to are highly concerned about
what the outcome of the parliamentary elections will be – and about
who will also take over as President. This is because the outcome of
the elections will be a major factor in determining the chances of
greater freedom of thought, conscience and belief in Turkey. Opinion
polls currently put the AKP ahead of the other parties. Indeed,
all the major parties likely to get seats in the new parliament are
nationalistic, with varying levels of hostility to non-Muslims.

If the AKP wins the parliamentary elections, this could mean that it
held two-thirds of seats in parliament, which would give it the power
to pass changes to the Constitution in an Islamist direction. Whoever
becomes the President might veto these changes, which makes the
election of a new President another major factor in determining the
chances of greater freedom of thought, conscience and belief in Turkey.

The way the new President will be elected has proved highly
controversial. According to the law passed by parliament with AKP
backing on 31 May 2007, this should be by popular vote but President
Sezer rejected this. With parliament and president at a stand-off,
the issue is now to be put to a referendum, though no date has been
set. If the AKP wins the parliamentary elections, they will probably
present Abdullah Gul again as their candidate for President. If an AKP
candidate is elected President, this would allow the AKP to introduce
constitutional changes, in the knowledge that an AKP President would
not veto them. Nobody however knows what the army and wider "deep
state" would do, if that happened.

The "deep state" has a well-known commitment to "defending" the
Ataturkist "secularist" heritage, as it sees it. And in Turkey,
"secularism" means Islam being a branch of the state and no other
religious community – including Muslim minorities – having legal
status as a religious community (see F18News 22 November 2006
=875).

When the army General Staff issued a statement in late April 2007
defending Turkey’s "secular" system and describing itself as the
"absolute defender of secularism" this was interpreted as a "cold
coup". However, it was also a sign of its weakness – it seems the army
no longer felt able to launch a real coup. The AKP government led by
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan merely carried on as before. It
presents itself as no longer being afraid of anyone and ready to do
what it wants without looking over its shoulder.

In reality, Erdogan has shown that he has heard the army’s warning
that it wants to decide on matters it considers vital for Turkey. On
two occasions Erdogan stated that politicians would not oppose the
army, if it decided to invade Iraq. After stating this for the first
time, he denied saying it – but then said it again. Erdogan has also
indicated that his fellow politicians would not oppose other decisions
of the army leadership.

The mass demonstrations against the AKP in April and May 2007 did not
necessarily show that large parts of the population wanted Turkey
to become more open and democratic. Many of the demonstrators were
supporters of rival parties, some of them just as nationalist in
outlook as the AKP. Indeed, it seems the Republican People’s Party
(CHP) stirred up many of the protests. Party members see themselves
as Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s heirs, even if it is doubtful that he
would recognise them as such.

Some of the protest organisers and demonstrators certainly did
want Turkey to be less nationalist and more open and democratic,
including the small minority who want Turkey to have genuine freedom of
thought, conscience and belief. But those who demonstrated consisted
of people who had no one unified goal: old Kemalists who are anti-EU
and xenophobic to varying degrees; secularists who are afraid of any
Islamist project; intellectuals who do not share a Kemalist worldview;
anti-AKP and anti-Islamist Westernisers.

Turkey’s Western-oriented intellectuals think that if Turkey continues
with negotiations over EU accession, this will not only benefit them
but will help promote democratic change. However, they are acutely
aware that they are becoming an ever dwindling minority.

If the AKP does take over both the parliament and the presidency,
it is still unknown how it will behave. Will it go down the Islamist
road or carry on with the European project? It seems that Erdogan
and his current foreign minister (and AKP presidential candidate)
Abdullah Gul have both moved away from their Islamist background. Yet
this still remains unknown. And even if the AKP does not take over the
parliament and presidency, the majority of those who oppose the AKP
are – apart from the true democrats – mainly xenophobic nationalists.

If other parties come to power in the elections, the already tight
controls and restrictions on religious minorities (and indeed on
Islam) are highly unlikely to be loosened. The other parties are
more nationalistic than the AKP and so even less willing to do
anything to improve conditions for non-Muslim minorities. If they
were willing to ease the restrictions on non-Muslim minorities,
there would be pressure for them to also loosen the subordination in
law and practice of Islam to the state (see F18News 22 November 2006
=875). These parties
certainly do not want this.

The AKP has done little practical to help non-Muslim
communities since it came to power (see F18News 18 January 2007
=901). But some in Turkey,
including the head of the Armenian Church, Patriarch Mesrop, still
see a new AKP government – theoretically committed to pursuing the
EU application – as the only hope within Turkish politics for even
slight improvements.

Those Turks who want to see genuine freedom of thought, conscience
and religion have little expectation that either the parliamentary
or presidential election will bring any improvement. No political
party with any chance of gaining real power wants either to tackle
the dangerous media intolerance of religious minorities or to take
the dramatic changes necessary to usher in genuine religious freedom.

(END)

– Dr Otmar Oehring, head of the human rights office of Missio
sio-ueber-sich/leitthemen/menschenrechte/index.htm l,
a Catholic charity based in Germany, contributed this comment to
Forum 18 News Service. Commentaries are personal views and do not
necessarily represent the views of F18News or Forum 18.

=983

NA SPEAKER RECEIVED THE AMBASSADOR OF CHINA

ArmRadio.am
26.06.2007 18:02

June 26 the Speaker of RA National Assembly Tigran Torosyan received
the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Hong Jiuyin.

Mr. Jiuyin conveyed the congratulations of the Parliament Speaker
of China on the occasion of Tigran Torosyan’s re-election as NA
Speaker. The Ambassador noted that his country attaches great
importance to the development of relations with Armenia in all the
spheres and assured that his mission is to promote the development
of Chinese-Armenian relations.

NA Speaker thanked the Ambassador for the congratulations and noted
that the Armenian-Chinese Interparliamentary ties have always been
on a high level and assured that the traditions of friendship and
cooperation will continue.

PRIME MINISTER EXPLAINS CRITERIA FOR EXECUTIVE FORMATION

Panorama.am
18:34 26/06/2007

Before presenting government program at the National Assembly, Armenian
prime minister, Serzh Sargsyan, said what principles were applied
while forming the executive as a result of political developments.

"Major goal is to form a competent government with higher public trust
that will pay particularly attention to socio-economic challenges
while also ensuring a stable and continuous developments based on
past achievements."

CROSSFIRE WAR – TEHRAN EVALUATES THREAT FROM RUSSIA
By Willard Payne

NewsBlaze, CA
June 25 2007

Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – Eurasia Theatre: Tehran/Moscow;
10th Session of Iran Foreign Policy Council Meeting – Evaluation
of Military Threat from Russia – Post-World War III Regional –
International Cooperation

Night Watch: TEHRAN – Realizing Moscow is the only Allied capital
that is any real offensive threat to Tehran, Iran’s government has
convened its 10th Foreign Policy Council Session on Saturday, chaired
by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. The meeting is being held
at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS) in
Tehran. A statement was released, "Iran’s ambassador to Moscow along
with a number of university lecturers and experts in Russian political
affairs attended the meeting where they studied the Russian status
in regional and international developments together with existing
opportunities and hurdles on the way of expansion of ties between
Tehran and Moscow." [IRNA]

I am not surprised this meeting is being held now. Tehran knows that
under Russian President Vladimir Putin Russia has engaged in serious
military and economic reforms, since 1999, that have drastically
improved not only Russia’s military performance in the North Caucasus,
against Islamic groups Tehran-Ankara have been supporting, but has
also enabled Russia to wield more influence in international affairs
using the enormous budget Moscow can now deploy internationally
as powerful countries can strategically deploy troops. One of the
more recent examples, Tehran is reviewing, is in Northeast Asia
and Moscow’s immediate response when last October, after Pyongyang
exploded a nuclear bomb at an underground test site for possible
export to Iran, as North Korea has been exporting ballistic missiles
to Iran for years. Moscow immediately reasserted its old influence and
contacts with North Korea’s government, completely removing Beijing,
which had been controlling Pyongyang’s decisions since the end of
the Cold War in 1990.

I suspect at this foreign policy session Tehran has to acknowledge that
since Beijing and China are going through another wave of corruption,
its historical-cultural pattern, therefore Beijing can never again
be the influence in international affairs it had been since World
War II and can therefore no longer guarantee further shipments of
advanced weaponry to Iran or Syria.

Making these grim realizations are officials on the highest levels of
Tehran’s foreign policy and it is being held almost ten years to the
day of the formation of Iran’s Foreign Relations Strategic Council,
which reports directly to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. Its chairman is Kamal Kharrazi, the
Foreign Minister immediately before Mottaki, and one of its members
is another former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati.

Former Defense Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani is a member as is
Mohammad Shariatmadari and Mohammad-Hossein Taromi. The members serve
five year terms so they will be in a position to advise Tehran on
the post-World War III international situation and they know the
principal foreign capital Iran will be in closest cooperation with
will be Moscow.

Earlier this year Velayati made an important, almost secret visit
to the Kremlin where I suspect he and the Russian officials he
conferred with outlined the rest of the war. NATO and the West will
be increasingly defensive in the Balkans, make a stand somewhere,
as will India as Delhi confronts the massive military support Tehran
sends through Pakistan. Therefore only when Tehran sees Russia coming
through the South Caucasus through Georgia-Armenia and if need be
Azerbaijan, will Tehran then enter into negotiations ending Iran’s
participation in World War III. Though the war will be continuing in
other areas Tehran will no longer be at the center of it.

What has enabled Moscow to emerge as the main victor of the war is
its extremely intelligent decision to withdraw all of its military
forces from the debacle in the Balkans, that was intiated 1990-92,
in the name of the New World Order. It was intended and planned as
an enlightened, orchestrated crisis NATO-Warsaw Pact governments
envisioned they could use to solve the crisis of the coming division
of Yugoslavia peacefully, an international display of European unity,
conducted by Brussels-Vienna. What was revealed instead was the dark
ages cesspool of European decision making that has also incorporated
Washington, and now they are about to plunge into the depths of
another Balkan war, this one revolving around Kosovo. That prevents
NATO/EU from providing any effective support for the European units
in south Lebanon-UNIFIL or in any other theatre. So I suspect the
Iranian officials in this 10th Foreign Policy Session have written
the West off as a stationary target.

South Asia, the India/Pakistan fourth war, is the other major theatre
Tehran is evaluating and Moscow’s long standing support for Delhi
as one of Moscow’s way of countering Beijing and its territorial
designs on the region. Tehran supports Islamabad for similar reasons
as Beijing has since 1951, for the control of the vast resources on
the Indian sub-continent and they know Moscow is still in a position
to provide India with advanced weaponry, but no troop support. Iran
may also be aware there are serious issues, some of them recorded
on crossfirewar.com, as to whether or not India has effectively
maintained the readiness of its large military. What is powerful on
paper may not always indicate effectiveness on the ground. Tehran has
placed itself to provide very eager and major support for Pakistan
President General Pervez Musharraf’s offensive "Action Plan" that he
presented to Tehran in February.

The action year is 2007 and these officials may have been informed
by Adm. Shamkhani, that Iran has enough for one year of offensive
warfare, primarily directed at the West-India. Iran’s main weapon
against Israel is propaganda. These foreign policy experts may also
be aware former U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger arrived
in Moscow two months ago (as recorded on crossfirewar.com 4-26)
to co-chair the Strategic Working Group with former Russia Premier
Yevgeny Primakov. And that is the result of Washington increasing
its strategic coopertion with Berlin for more than a year, reducing
Washington’s historical cooperation with London. It was Berlin, the
main purchaser of Russia’s resources and therefore the principal
supplier of Moscow’s hard currency even before the Cold War, who
had Putin become head of state and reorganize Russia along some very
serious industrial frontlines.

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