IS ARMENIA READY FOR THE SECOND ARTSAKH WAR WITH AZERBAIJAN?
By Appo Jabarian
USA Armenian Life Magazine
May 14, 2010
Recently, Azerbaijan has intensified its anti-Armenian propaganda
threatening to ignite a new war with Armenia over Artsakh (Nagorno
Karabagh).
A recent Google search on "Azerbaijan Threatens War," revealed
over 182,000 results in the form of news items and articles on the
internet. A second search with the key words "Aliyev Threatens War"
brought to the surface over 90,700 e-references.
The first war between Artsakh Armenians and Azerbaijan started in
1988 with initial skirmishes and escalated into a full-blown war in
1991 and ended in 1994 with a resounding Armenian military victory.
The current Azeri dictator, President Ilham Aliyev is eager to show
results on Artsakh-related negotiations in order to help perpetuate
his illegitimate presidency.
One of the main objectives of this renewed psychological war is to
coerce Armenians of Artsakh to give up their legitimate rights to
self-determination and to "voluntarily" submit the now-liberated
Armenian territories back to Azeri occupation.
There is no question that the best way for Armenians to avert war is
to be ready for war.
One lucid question can help us clarify whether the Armenian side is
ready for war: "How ready are Armenia, Artsakh and Armenians?"
When the new Baku adventure starts, we should be ready and united in
purpose, but I don’t see it – I hope I’m wrong in this, but I can’t see
any signs of consciousness of the peril – AND THE OPPORTUNITIES – that
we should be absolutely ready for, recently noted a concerned Armenian.
Both Artsakh and Armenia can be exposed to danger if collectively we do
not take Azeri threats seriously. Any kind of vulnerability can spell
trouble and can cause irretrievable damage to the Armenian statehood.
Fueling this imminent danger is the misconception among certain
confused officials in Yerevan that "pacifying" Turkey by gifting them
Artsakh and Western Armenia will save the current Armenian state. One
can clearly see the existence of that perverse mentality behind their
football and protocol "diplomacy."
Are the Armenian Army and its high command less naive than the
country’s political leadership? And are they more prepared?
Do they know that no matter how many concessions we make, Turkey
will not tolerate Armenia and Artsakh to become economically and
politically viable states?
Are they aware that denialist Turkey is only interested in reducing
the current Armenian states into a single Turkish satrapy?
The concerned Armenian wrote: "In such a scenario, fortress Artsakh,
with or without its people, of course, cannot exist. And without
Artsakh, Armenia’s south is as good as gone and you are left with
Yerevan and its surroundings, an ideal (Pan-Armenian Movement)
H.H.Sh.-style ‘business’ arena — an Armenian community permanently
held hostage to Turkic whims; actually not ‘permanently’ as it will
be finished off within a generation or two through assimilation or
further migration under pressure, if not through Hamidian or Young
Turk genocidal belly dancing."
On April 24, 2010, denialist Turks "celebrated" the genocide of 1.5
million Armenians in front of the Turkish Embassy in Washington, DC.
According to Turkish news reports, Turkey’s Ambassador Namik Tan
welcomed the jubilant crowd into the Embassy following the two hour
gathering. On the one hand, official Yerevan should not shy away from
confronting the danger to being neighbors with an unrepentant Turkey;
and on the other hand, as an effective deterrent to new acts of
genocide, it’s absolutely crucial that on May 18, the French Senate
adopts the law penalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide and
the international community follows suit.
Present day Armenia can not be viable in the long term without at least
Nakhitchevan and its rail and road links to Iran. In fact, Azerbaijan
and Turkey will never reconcile themselves with the existence of
an Armenian state as long as we are not at least conscious of this
strategic truth or taking any steps to address this threat head-on. The
consequences of 1921 must be remedied before we can tackle those of
1915 and 1895, wrote the pro-Armenia activist.
Back in 1921, the infamous Soviet dictator Josef Stalin carved Artsakh
and Nakhitchevan out of then newly Sovietized Armenian Republic
and arbitrarily "awarded" to the then newly-created Soviet Republic
of Azerbaijan.
Both Artsakh and Nakhitchevan effectively underwent the process of
Stalinization. The indigenous Armenian populations were politically
and economically harassed by the Baku-based Soviet authorities in
order to gradually drive them out. The Azeris were totally successful
in depopulating Nakhitchevan, but they failed in Artsakh.
"Instead of considering a ruinous ‘land for peace deal’ (Aghdam,
Fizuli, and other lowlands of Artsakh) which will only whet the Turkish
appetite for the next stage of destroying Armenia, we must be ready
to inflict such huge territorial losses on Azerbaijan on the eastern
front in the coming war that it will be prepared to cede Nakhitchevan
in exchange for ceasefire by, and peace with Armenia, and say a final
‘good bye’ to the idea of having any borders with its ‘big brother’
Turkey, and reconcile itself, if it doesn’t fall apart altogether,
to being a small state on the Caspian shores beyond Kur river and
under Armenian, Russian and Iranian domination," he elaborated.
"That’s when Armenia will gain strategic depth and weight in the eyes
of the world – Russia, U.S., China and Europe in the first place. And
that’s the only time when Ankara might consider sitting down with the
Armenian people as an equal and to seriously negotiate with us and
make amends for Armenian Genocide by returning the forcibly occupied
Armenian lands; by making restitution for the real and personal
properties. … In the coming war, the key to Armenia’s survival
lies in, No Compromise with the Turks, and in No Handing over of any
Armenian territory to the Turks. We must do the opposite. We must be
ready to defend and extend Armenia’s borders to Kur river in the east,
and Arax river in the southeast, and in the southwest through the
liberation of Nakhitchevan with its strategic rail and road networks
which will place us in a good position to take the next step for the
liberation of Western Armenia," he concluded.
But here is the burning question: Can the Armenian people convince
the oligarchs in Yerevan with their essentially HHSh-style thinking
and ideology to act in the best interests of their people? Will they
somehow get enlightened enough to abstain from plundering their own
poverty-stricken people with a get-rich-quick mentality?
If they don’t, their misdeeds will ruin Armenia. Their insatiable
appetite and greed for more illegal riches will continue to strangulate
Armenia, and by extension, the Diaspora.
As for the Armenian defense forces, there is no question that they
will certainly emulate the 1991-1994 generation of freedom fighters
who were armed by something much more than any sophisticated war
machine – a strong conviction that they are and will be fighting for
the liberation of ancestral soil. Whereas, the Azeris will be fighting
– or refuse to fight for the occupation of lands that belong to the
indigenous Armenians.
Whether Armenians like it or not, they are facing a new kind of
multi-front Sardarapat war.