Author: Torgomian Varazdat

GENDARMERIE SOLDIERS ADMIT KNOWING ABOUT DINK MURDER

Today’s Zaman
March 21 2008
Turkey

Two gendarmes have confirmed earlier testimony by a witness that they
had been clearly warned about a plot to assassinate ethnic Armenian
journalist Hrant Dink.

The trial of the two soldiers on charges of dereliction of duty
by failing to take the necessary measures to prevent the murder of
Dink continued in a Trabzon court on Thursday. Sgt. Maj. Okan S. and
Special Sgt. Veysel Sahin are being accused of failing to act within
the scope of their powers to prevent the murder of Dink, even though
they had solid intelligence on the plot to assassinate the journalist
months before the incident.

The two soldiers testified for the first time at yesterday’s hearing,
corroborating earlier testimony of witness Coþkun Ýðic, the ex-husband
of a relative of one of the prime suspects of the Dink murder, that
they had previous knowledge of the plot. They also said they had
informed their superior, Trabzon’s Provincial Gendarmerie Commander
Col. Ali Oz. The two suspects testified that they had given false
statements during the course of the investigation due to pressure
from Oz.

Dink was shot by an extremist teenager on Jan. 19, 2007, outside
the Agos weekly building — where he was the editor-in-chief — in
Ýstanbul’s Beyoðlu district. The ensuing investigation revealed that
some of the suspects who were later found to be the masterminds of
the murder had links to police officers.

The first witness to testify at the first hearing for two suspects in
January was Ýðci, the ex-husband of the aunt of Yasin Hayal, a prime
suspect in the Dink murder investigation. Ýðci testified that he had
notified the two gendarmerie soldiers at least two-and-a-half months
ahead of the murder of his nephew’s plans to shoot Dink.

The witness said Hayal, who is currently in prison pending trial in
the Dink murder, had told him openly about his plans for the murder.

Ýðci stated that he informed the two gendarmes of the plans to kill
Dink about two-and-a-half to three months prior to the murder. He
testified that Hayal and his friends told him about an earlier visit
near Dink’s house and the environs of the Agos weekly in Ýstanbul,
which he relayed to the two gendarmes now being tried. He said the
two warned him not to talk to anyone about what he knew shortly after
the assassination.

–Boundary_(ID_AXQ1I7Dt9gIdXw0kadk 9yg)–

OSCE MG UNDERLINES URGENT NEED TO RESUME KARABAKH TALKS

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.03.2008 14:17 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, Ambassadors Yuri
Merzlyakov of Russia, Bernard Fassier of France and Matthew Bryza
of the U.S. issued a statement upon the meetings with Armenia and
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministers, the OSCE communication unit reports.

The statement says,

"The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (Ambassadors Yuri Merzlyakov
for the Russian Federation, and Bernard Fassier for France, as well
as Mike Carpenter, Advisor to U.S. Co-Chair Matt Bryza) met with the
Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vardan Oskanian in Vienna on the
14th of March and with the Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs
Elmar Mammadyarov in Paris on the 15th of March.

After these meetings the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs recall that,
as reiterated before the vote on the "Resolution on the Situation in
the Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan" at the UN General Assembly,
France, the Russian Federation and the United States support the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and therefore do not recognize the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, while holding that the future status
of Nagorno-Karabakh is a matter of negotiations between the parties.

The Co-Chairs remain convinced that any peaceful and equitable
settlement of the conflict will require unavoidable compromises among
the parties. They underline the urgent need to resume the negotiations
after the pause due to the presidential election in Armenia. In that
respect, they note with satisfaction the affirmation of both Foreign
Ministers of the need to continue the discussions between the sides.

The Co-Chairs proposed to the Foreign Ministers to organize the first
meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as
possible. The Co-Chairs express their sincere hope that this meeting,
accepted in principle by the two sides, will take place and lead
to the resumption of negotiations for the peaceful settlement of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of the Document on the
Basic principles for the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, presented to the sides on November 29, 2007 in Madrid before
the opening of the OSCE Ministerial Council.

Finally, at a time when serious clashes resulting in the loss of life
have occurred along the Line of Contact, the Co-Chairs urge both sides
to refrain from unilateral and maximalist actions on the ground, at the
negotiating table, as well as in their public rhetoric, and to fully
and strictly comply with their obligations relating to the cease-fire."

TOLERANCE IN TURKEY: CATHOLICS WANT TO RECLAIM ST. PAUL’S BIRTHPLACE
By Peter Wensierski

Spiegel Online
,1518,542747,00.html
March 20 2008
Germany

The Catholic Church is pushing for the construction of a Christian
meeting center at the birthplace of the Apostle Paul in Turkey.

German bishops are demanding tolerance for Christians in Turkey in
exchange for their support for mosques in Germany.

There is little left from the days when the town of Tarsus was not
Turkish but part of the Roman Empire: a handful of columns, a few old
walls — and a house where, about 2,000 years ago, a man who would
become a central figure in Christianity was born.

"I am a Jew from Tarsus," the Bible reads. The man who was quoted
as saying these words went down in history as the Apostle Paul,
who brought the Christian faith into the world.

Every year, thousands of visitors travel to Tarsus, which is near the
Turkish-Syrian border. But Christians who wish to worship in the Church
of St. Paul, built several centuries ago, must overcome bizarre hurdles
to do so. A permit is required from the local authorities to celebrate
mass in the church. In addition, worshippers are charged an entry fee
and required to bring along the essentials — from the altar crucifix
to candles — and then promptly remove them after the service. The
church was used as a military depot for several decades, before the
Turkish government suddenly declared it a museum in the 1990s.

Rome has never come to terms with the fact that Christians have such a
difficult time of it in the birthplace of the apostle. But this year,
which Pope Benedict XVI has declared the "Year of St. Paul," it will
become a topic of public debate. In June, Cardinal Walter Kasper,
the president of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity,
will celebrate a mass in Tarsus. A number of German bishops also plan
to travel to Turkey.

The Catholics are pursuing a politically explosive plan. Roughly
2,000 years after the birth of St. Paul, they want to get a Christian
meeting center constructed in Tarsus.

They have chosen an auspicious moment for the scheme. With Turkey vying
for European Union membership, the government of Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan (more…) can hardly afford to turn down a Christian
project. In addition, the Church, especially the German bishops,
is offering something in return. The Germans have often taken a
benevolent stance toward the construction of mosques in Germany,
a policy they intend to continue. In return, they are demanding
tolerance for Christians in Turkey.

The archbishop of Cologne, Cardinal Joachim Meisner, who is well
known for his conservative views, campaigned for the initiative among
his fellow cardinals. Meisner is closely aligned with Bishop Luigi
Padovese, the pope’s apostolic vicar in Anatolia. The two men have
coordinated their efforts with Rome and found supporters who are now
coming to their aid.

For Hans-Jochen Jaschke, the auxiliary bishop in Hamburg, the proposed
structure in Tarsus would be "an extremely important symbol." Of course
Jaschke, who is in charge of inter-religious dialogue within the German
Bishops’ Conference, is not in favor of a simple church-for-mosque
trade. But then he slyly adds: "It would be very helpful towards the
acceptance of Turks in Germany if a sign of acceptance of Christians
were to be seen in Turkey."

Given the current circumstances of Christians in Turkey, however,
Jaschke’s wish taps into one of the most major issues in German-Turkish
relations. Without government approval, no religious community can
be active in Turkey. Muslim clerics must also submit their sermons to
the authorities. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey,
introduced this rule in an effort to keep Islam under control. The
strict system is intended to guarantee the state’s freedom from
religious influences, but it also drastically restricts Christians’
freedom to practice their faith.

Because of these obstacles, Cardinal Meisner took the Catholic Church’s
request for approval of its planned Christian meeting center to the
very top of the Turkish state, and wrote to the Turkish prime minister
in February. Recep Tayyip Erdogan had already been approached once
before, when he visited Cologne, Istanbul’s sister city, during a
state visit to Germany (more…) on Feb. 10. Cologne Mayor Fritz
Schramma, a member of the conservative Christian Democratic Union
(CDU), mentioned the situation at the birthplace of St. Paul to
Erdogan and conveyed the cardinal’s request to him.

Erdogan promised his support. "As soon as the church approaches
me with this wish, I will speak out in favor of it — even against
my opposition."

Bishop Padovese, who had already submitted the same request to the
government in writing months earlier, repeated the request. Together
with six other bishops in Turkey, he plans to take Erdogan, who
recently solicited German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s support for his
country’s EU membership, at his word. The bishops joined forces to
ask Erdogan to support their project. It is now up to the government
to make Tarsus into a turning point in the Turkish state’s policy
toward Christians.

For the German bishops, the matter has become a touchstone in the
Church’s relationship with Islam. A group of German leaders plans
to travel to Tarsus in September. Cardinal Meisner already went to
Tarsus more than half a year ago and held a church service there.

Meisner was horrified by the conditions under which Christians must
live in the aspiring EU member. In 1920, 20 percent of the Turkish
population was Christian. That figure has declined to only 0.1 percent
today, and the state and local authorities make life difficult for
this small contingent. The largest group consists of roughly 60,000
Armenians in Istanbul, who are barred access to higher government
positions simply because the word "Christian" is stamped in their
identification cards.

Part 2: Fears of a Christian ‘Mission’

Turkey’s 33,000 Catholics are a negligibly small group compared with
the country’s roughly 73 million Muslims. The headquarters of the
German Bishops’ Conference regularly receives horrifying reports of
how they are treated. This has helped shape the Catholic Church’s
current position that Turkey is not yet "ready to be part of Europe."

Many Catholics meet only in private homes, because they feel persecuted
and discriminated against. Even in the cosmopolitan city of Istanbul,
Christians cannot openly practice their faith everywhere. One prayer
room was set up in a former industrial building — naturally without
visible identifiers like a cross or a church tower. The training of
clergy and lay ministers is impossible; monasteries and seminaries
were closed years ago. Even foreign personnel are generally not
allowed to make up for staffing shortfalls.

Admittedly, the German Protestant pastor who attends to the
spiritual needs of tourists from Germany and the more than 10,000
German pensioners who have settled on Turkey’s southern coast is
not persecuted. However, he is merely tolerated, because he is a
diplomatic member of the consulate general.

One of the fundamental problems Christians face in the country is
their completely tentative status. Unlike Germany, Turkey does not
recognize churches and parishes as legal entities. Ownership rights
to old churches and other buildings are routinely challenged in Turkey.

"Hundreds of churches and parish halls were seized, thereby depriving
Christians of their ability to congregate," complains Otmar Oehring,
head of the human rights office of the international Catholic mission
society Missio. Only a few months ago, Turkey’s supreme appellate
court deprived the ecumenical patriarch of his title, to which he
has been entitled for centuries.

The difficult situation of religious minorities is always brought
to the attention of the international community when violent crimes
occur. In February 2006, a Catholic priest was murdered in Trabzon,
followed by the killing of a Christian journalist in Istanbul in
January 2007 and of three employees of a Christian publishing company
(more…) in Malatya in April. A monk was kidnapped in Midyat in
November 2007, a priest was wounded in a knife attack in Izmir in
December 2007, and a pastor in Antalya barely escaped being murdered
when, in January of this year, Turkish intelligence uncovered a plot
to kill him.

There is no evidence that anti-Christian propaganda led to these acts
of violence, but the mood in Turkish society is being systematically
poisoned against the minority religion. Although the number of
Christians in the country is a tiny fraction of what it once was,
Islamist and nationalist forces stoke completely exaggerated fears of a
"Christian mission."

The Turkish intelligence service and the military, as well as police
intelligence units, spread horrific stories about Christians in
Turkey. For example, the armed forces published a report titled
"Missionary Activities in Our Country and in the World," in which
they warn against the "dangers posed by converts." Governors, heads
of intelligence and education directors in the provinces have been
called upon to take joint action against "proselytizing Christians."

Ironically, the Turkish Interior Ministry has registered a
ridiculously small number of converts from Islam to Christianity:
a mere 344 in the last seven years. For this reason, Turkish papers
like the liberal daily Sabah are critical of the efforts to incite
hysteria. "A lie is being spread about missionaries," the paper wrote
in an editorial. "The public is being goaded to adopt hate-filled,
anti-Christian positions. All of this is experienced in this country,
and sometime, when the time comes, someone will believe the fairy
tale that ‘these are the enemies among us,’ and kill three people."

Liberal voices like Sabah’s allow Padovese to be cautiously
optimistic. He was especially pleased to read an editorial by the
editor-in-chief of the leading secular daily Hurriyet, Ertugrul Ozkok,
who wrote: "Turks in Germany have built more than 3,000 mosques, and
we cannot even tolerate a few churches and a dozen missionaries. Where
is our civilization?"

Last week, Padovese detected the first signs of a possible easing of
tensions: The local authorities in Tarsus assembled a commission to
discuss the request for a Christian center in the birthplace of St.

Paul. In other words, the Turks had put together a working group,
a notion that elicits a smile from the bishop. "The Turks and the
Germans are similar in that respect at least," he says.

PRESS RELEASE
Catholicosate of Cilicia
Communication and Information Department
Contact: V.Rev.Fr.Krikor Chiftjian, Communications Officer
Tel: (04) 410001, 410003
Fax: (04) 419724
E- mail: [email protected]
Web:

PO Box 70 317
Antelias-Lebanon

Armenian version: nian.htm

LIVE TELEVISION BROADCAST OF EASTER MASS VIA SATELLITE FROM ANTELIAS
MARCH 23rd, 2008

The Noursat Broadcast will be broadcasting LIVE via satellite the Holy
Easter Mass celebrated by His Holiness Aram I, from St. Gregory the
Illuminator Cathedral in Antelias, on Sunday 23 March 2008, beginning from
10:30 UTC/GMT.

You can watch Noursat live in Middle East, North Africa, Europe, North/South
America, Far East and Australia. Check your local listings for broadcast
dates and times in your area below*. For more details on how to receive
Noursat in your area, click here:
l

or follow the instructions below:
You can watch Noursat in Middle East, North Africa, Europe, North/South
America, Far East and Australia 7 days a week, 24/24 hours on Hotbird 4,
Echostar, Pas 9 and Pas 8.

Middle East, North Africa and Europe (HotBird 4):
Orbital Location: 13°E
Downlink Frequency: 10949
Downlink Polarization: Vertical
Symbol Rate: 27.5 M S/S
Fec: 3/4
961-1-254501/2/3

North America (Echostar):
Dish Network
USA: 1-800-984-3388
Canada: 1-514-636-3444

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Multipole International
55-11-3079-5222

Far East, Australia & New Zealand (Pas 8):
World Media International
61-2-9747-1011

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SERJ TANKIAN GOES HIS OWN WAY
By Michael Roberts

Westword
March 19 2008
CO

Even on his own, System’s frontman bucks the system.

In "Unthinking Majority," from Elect the Dead, Serj Tankian’s first
solo album, the longtime System of a Down lead singer declares,
"We don’t need your hypocrisy/Execute real democracy" – and unlike
knee-jerk provocateurs for whom sloganeering is an end in itself,
he’s actually thought about what he means by this last phrase.

"Real democracy is one where there are no levers that may reverse
popular vote (electoral reversal in 2000)," Tankian asserts via
e-mail. "Where citizens are represented more than corporations or
foreign governments and their interests in some cases (K Street
lobbying firms, no campaign-contribution ceiling for corps like for
citizens). Where you have more than one party, or more than two
parties that are the different sides of one coin (instant runoff
voting would help encourage independent candidates). Where there is
a free and non-partisan media to report the truth (imagine that)."

Tankian began sharing his version of reality with a wider public in
1998, when System’s debut disc arrived, and since then, he’s often
paid a price for his forthrightness. In the days following 9/11,
for instance, he posted a critical essay on the band’s website –
a move that led to a barrage of abuse from right-wingers and most
likely contributed to the temporary suspension of System airplay
at Clear Channel-owned radio stations across the country. "This
is what happens when you allow the media in your country to reach
near-monopolistic levels of corporate Darwinism," Tankian notes. "It
was the closest I’ve ever felt to the ’50s, when McCarthyism scared
everyone into submission."

More recently, Tankian, who’s of Armenian descent, championed a
campaign for Congress to recognize the 1915-era murder of approximately
1.5 million Armenians as an act of genocide committed by the nation of
Turkey. In the end, the legislation collapsed after opponents argued
that it would hurt U.S. relations with Turkey, which the current
administration sees as an ally in the war on terrorism.

Tankian was frustrated by this turn of events: "A genocide isn’t a
point that can be negotiated like trade," he emphasizes. But even
as he vows to continue fighting on behalf of the cause, he tries to
maintain a balance in his professional and personal life. As he puts
it, "You don’t have to be boring to be political. You can be a good
human being and work toward justice and have fun in your life as well.

"We all know way too many bands that take themselves too seriously,"
he concedes – but in his view, "I never have. After all, this is
music, not brain surgery. It’s magic and math combined. If you can’t
laugh within your day no matter what you do for a living, you’re not
really living."

Even the unthinking majority can agree with that.

A PERSPECTIVE ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FROM INSIDE ARMENIA

AZG Armenian Daily
20/03/2008

Opinion

Since Tuesday’s presidential elections in Armenia, I have received a
number of well-intentioned e-mails from diasporan Armenians who have
strong opinions about the outcome, and the methods with which that
outcome was reached. Many of these authors have used language bordering
on the hysterical and offensive to characterize the current situation
in Armenia. Some state that they have received their information from
sources within Armenia, including a number of "opposition" websites.

Well, since I am actually in Armenia, I would like to explain a
few things, which may not occur to those who don’t live here. And
as a resident of this country for the past seven years, I think I
have earned the right to make certain observations and criticisms
emanating from personal experiences.

Armenia is not the United States. Therefore, there is no accepted
tradition or institutional culture when it comes to many political
activities to which Americans are accustomed. Democracy and democratic
principles in Armenia are developing and progressing. It may not be
happening at a pace that is acceptable to many; nevertheless, it is
happening. Notwithstanding the pace, however, each and every Armenian,
whether in Armenia or in the diaspora, has a solemn responsibility
to support and encourage the maintenance, strength and endurance of
our statehood.

Stability for our state is a high priority, one that may be difficult
to comprehend for anyone or any people who, having enjoyed free and
independent statehood for centuries, thus take it for granted. In
the U.S., we accept America as no longer an experiment – it is a
fait accompli. By contrast, Armenia is at a crossroads, and our
very survival is at stake. Turkey continues its illegal blockade
of Armenia and refuses to establish diplomatic ties with us. We are
still technically at war, and although the cease-fire with Azerbaijan
has held for more than 10 years, it is still a fragile and tenuous
one. The threat of resuming hostilities and aggression by the Azeris
is one that we live with every day, and has been one of the reasons,
I believe, that unlike Georgia, Ukraine, and other former Soviet
countries, Armenia has persevered and remained free of major civic
unrest in recent years. We understand that unity is our weapon and our
strength. And although internally we may have sharp disagreements and
heated political arguments, Armenians know well that at the end of the
day, no one, no nation, no country and no international organization
can be relied upon to save us this time from complete annihilation. I
am sure many of you would agree.

It is true, the elections were not flawless.

Deficiencies of all sorts were observed and are an unfortunate
reality. However, the constitution of the Republic of Armenia worked:
scheduled elections did take place, and a president who is term-limited
is willingly stepping aside and giving up the power entrusted to
him by the people. This may no longer be a revolutionary concept in
California, Massachusetts, or Illinois, but for the former Soviet
Union, it’s an important, if symbolic, step. (For those who need
further info, see Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, etc.)

Furthermore, international observers from the United States,
Europe and Russia were present before and during the election
to monitor the campaign atmosphere and balloting. They issued an
11-page report on the day following the elections. You can read it
here: [See page A8 for the executive
summary.] The report is available in English and Armenian, and
was prepared by the OSCE/ODIHR monitoring mission. The report is
critical in some areas, and offers praise in others, which was to
be expected. In a nutshell, the monitors presented their findings,
stating that the 2008 presidential elections were "mostly in line
with international commitments."

This is not an apologia. We all want Armenia to do better. We all
wait for the day when elections in Armenia are completely fair and
transparent. And that day will come when our citizens fully become
aware of their rights and responsibilities, and when the western
"culture" of elections, voting, campaigning and political platforms
become better integrated into Armenian society.

But just because that day is not here yet, does not mean that we throw
up our arms, give up on democracy and think it merely an experiment
gone bad. It has been said that democracy is a very bad form of
government – it’s just much better than anything else that’s been
tried in history. It would be hard to find anyone today, whether the
authorities of Armenia or the opposition, who would seriously argue
that abandoning our republican form of government because we haven’t
yet perfected it, is a logical or preferred path to follow.

We must therefore take great care before making frantic accusations,
for they are heard by us as well as our adversaries. The mental
laziness of giving in to wild conspiracies does not serve the
long-term endurance of Armenia or the diaspora. For the first time
in more than 600 years, Armenia is free and independent, and we are
therefore obligated to place our national interests ahead of our
personal gains or aspirations.

By Fr. Ktrij Devejian

Fr. Ktrij Devejian is the foreign press secretary of the Catholicate
of All Armenians, at the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. Born and
educated in the United States, Fr. Devejian has lived in Armenia for
the past seven years.

POLITICAL NIHILISM
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
March 18, 2008

Yesterday evening, exhausting the agenda of the first sitting of
the regular four-day session, the National Assembly discussed the
draft law on introducing changes in the RA law on "Rallies, Marches
and Demonstrations".

In response to our questions, RPA Press Secretary EDUARD SHARMAZANOV
substantiates the Government’s legal initiative.

"The March 1 events came to show once again that democracy must not
be confused with demagogy, and freedom must not be confused with
impunity. Yes, we have a credo and that credo is building a state
based upon the values of democracy. But after all, it is necessary to
realize that when we speak about democracy, it first of all implies
diversity of opinions and rivalry of ideas. And such rivalry of ideas
must be within the limits of political ethics.

The meetings continuously held by one of the candidates since
September were not political rallies, so to say; they were rather
demagogic protests leading to despotism and have actually nothing to
do with democracy.

Was it democracy when, speaking on behalf of the people, the
demonstration leaders cursed all those who held different opinions
and called them scum, sowed hostility and intolerance towards the
"dissidents", thus violating one of the fundamental principles of
democracy i.e. diversity of opinions?

What happened after February 19 was unconditionally beyond the logic
of a civilized struggle. The post-electoral developments came to
show that it was necessary to regulate the sphere, and introducing
amendments to law on "Rallies, Marches and Demonstrations" was vital.

The marches, rallies and demonstrations in which, according to the
data of the Police and the National Security Agencies, there were
calls for violence and the violent breach of the constitutional order,
i.e. what we saw during the rallies organized by the pro-Ter-Petrosyan
forces beginning September, should not be authorized. No democratic
country has ever moved forward towards the path of nihilism and denial.

We must do everything in a manner prescribed by law in order to rule
out political extremism in our country, and the forces preaching
extremism must have no place on our political arena. Here, a lot has
to be done both by the legislative and executive bodies, as well as
the judicial authority and first of all – our society and the civil
society institutions."

"What about the structures ‘spreading democracy’? Won’t they condemn
the adoption of the Resolution in future?"

"Armenia is an independent and sovereign state which has adopted the
policy of democratic reforms, and any RA citizen, despite his position,
must comply with the Constitution and the laws of our country. As to
what standards are applied by other countries, it’s up to them.

What’s more, I believe that both the American and European structures
realize that the RA legislation is quite democratic, actually more
democratic in comparison with some Western countries.

Second, the electoral process in Armenia was really, democratic and
the main violations were observed in the post-electoral period. I
don’t imagine unauthorized meetings held in any democratic country
for 9 days, without the intervention of the authorities."

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: "RUSSIA ALONG WITH THE UNITED STATES AND FRANCE IS GOING TO CONTINUE ACTIVE MEDIATION IN THE FRAMEWORK OF OSCE MINSK GROUP"

Today
cs/43754.html
March 17 2008
Azerbaijan

Official Moscow considers resolution on Nagorno Karabakh, adopted in
the UN General Assembly, to comply only with Baku interests, while
saying that Russia will continue efforts to resolve the situation in
the region.

"The countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group on the settlement of
Nagorno Karabakh conflict (which includes the United States, France
and Russia) voted against the said document.

The joint announcement on the motives of voting explains their position
by the narrowness, irrelevance and ineffectiveness of the step of the
Azerbaijani side. This position has been presented to this country
for more than once", the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry,
released on Saturday says, according to Interfax.

"In particular, the draft resolution includes only some of the basic
principles of settlement, meeting only Azerbaijan’s needs, without
referring to the definition of the final legal status of Nagorno
Karabakh by means of a plebiscite among its population for free and
real expression of its will", the Russian Foreign Ministry says.

"This approach made the draft unacceptable for Armenia and deteriorated
prospects of the soonest resumption of Armenian-Azerbaijani talks
on Nagorno Karabakh conflict following the inauguration of the new
President of Armenia", the statement reads.

"Russia along with the United States and France is ready to continue
active mediation in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group for the
coordination of basic principles of settlement, which will allow
to bring back stability and peace to this South Caucasus region",
the statement says.

It should be reminded that the UN General Assembly held a voting
regarding the Baku-initiated resolution on Nagorno Karabakh. The
document was supported by 39 delegation, 7 voted against and 100
abstained from voting.

ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT DISCUSSES DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO LAW ON RALLIES, DEMONSTRATIONS AND PROCESSIONS

arminfo
2008-03-17 20:42:00

ArmInfo. Today the Armenian Parliament began to discuss the first
reading of draft amendments to the law on rallies, demonstrations
and processions.

One of the authors of the amendments, MP Rafik Petrossyan says
that the Mar 1 events in Yerevan have become a bitter lesson for
everybody. 8 people were killed and lots of people wounded on that
day, the state sustained big damage, the political situation in the
country was destabilized. The events have shown that the existing
law needs revision. It is necessary to revise some points of the law
so as to exclude the possibility of anti-constitutional actions and
to guarantee the safety of people in the future. The amendments are
based on the principles of human rights and freedoms, particularly,
the authors refer to articles 11 and 16 of European Convention n
Human Rights and considered the experience of such countries as Italy,
Germany, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Finland, Romania, Moldova.

Particularly, the authors are planning to amend articles 9, 10,
12 and 14 of the law. Thus, according to the amendment to Article
9 the authorities can restrict organization and holding of rallies,
demonstrations and processions if in case of reliable information these
activities may threaten the state security, cause violation of public
order, and violation of the constitutional rights of citizens. It
is extremely important that the body restricting the organization of
the activities should possess absolutely reliable information. This
information must be told to the Police and the National Security
Service. At the same time, the organizers of the activities may
dispute the decision on legal waivers. If the presented information is
ungrounded, the leaders of the Police and National Security Service
will be responsible for this. Article 10 of the law is also to be
amended: the organizers of the social events are obliged to inform
the local authorities 3-5 days prior to holding the events. Similar
amendments are also introduced to other articles of the law in force.

Diplomatic Traffic, DC
March 16 2008

Dim Prospects for Sarkissian after Armenia’s Post-election Violence

by Blanka Hancilova

The violent suppression of the opposition rally on 1-2 March has
opened up a gaping schism in the Armenian body politic. Following the
deaths of at least several dozen protesters, the Kocharyan-Sarkissian
duo is bound to lose some supporters, while some neutral voters may
chose to join the opposition. The battle for power may be drawn out,
and its conclusion is far from certain but, so far, it is evident
that the foundations of the ruling regime have been profoundly
shaken.

BACKGROUND: The 19 February 2008 presidential election in Armenia was
expected to see a smooth transfer of power from the current
president, Robert Kocharyan, to his long-time ally and current prime
minister, Serzh Sarkissian. But Armenia’s first president turned
opposition leader after a long absence from the political scene,
Levon Ter-Petrossian, turned it into a bitter contest, drawing his
supporters to the streets in record numbers, a sight unseen in
Yerevan since the 1990s. According to official results, Serzh
Sarkissian won the election in the first round, securing 52.8 per
cent of the cast, while Ter-Petrossian trailed behind with 21.5 per
cent.

The opposition alleges that mass fraud had taken place. Although
independent information is hard to come by, Human Rights Watch
documented the bullying and intimidation of opposition observers. On
election day, numerous violent incidents and irregularities were
reported such as vote buying, `carousel’ voting (where the same
people vote repeatedly), irregularities in the military’s voting and,
crucially, in vote counting.

Nevertheless, according to the preliminary findings of the OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights election
observation mission, the election `was administered mostly in line
with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards.’ Despite
this finding, opposition parties heavily criticized the conduct of
the elections.

The opposition contested the results and hit the streets for 11 days
of non-stop protests. Many other opposition leaders rallied behind
Ter-Petrossian. At the same time, a number of opposition politicians
were detained and some senior foreign ministry officials and
prosecutors, who publicly backed the opposition, were dismissed.

As the government felt increasingly insecure, it offered to set up a
coalition government and managed to co-opt one of the most
influential figures – former National Assembly Speaker and Chair of
the `Orinats Yerkir’ party, 40 year-old Arthur Baghdasarian.
Following this success, in the early hours of 1 March, the police
dispersed a rally at Yerevan’s Liberty Square and Ter-Petrossian was
placed under de facto house arrest.

Yerevan Violence

Notwithstanding the events earlier in the morning, later in the day
protesters gathered in Miasniakian square, in the vicinity of the City
Administration Hall and the embassies of France, Italy and Russia.
During the day, there were possibly several hundred thousand people
waiting for Ter-Petrossian, but also a strong police, interior forces
and army presence.

By the evening, the atmosphere had become extremely tense and a
violent standoff was widely expected. At the same time, the
opposition leaders that had organized the rally disavowed and
condemned incidents of violence, blaming them on government
provocateurs. Small-scale violent incidents started to take place,
and the looting of shops in downtown Yerevan also began. In the
evening, about 10,000 protesters were still present at the square,
burning cars and engaged in running battles with the security forces.

Late on 1 March, outgoing President Kocharyan introduced a state of
emergency for 20 days, which was upheld by the parliament. Media
freedoms, freedom of assembly and political activity remain
suspended.

Shortly after emergency rule was declared, security forces advanced
towards the protesters and, according to official information, a
violent standoff occurred which left at least eight people dead and
about two hundred injured. Unofficial sources speak of at least 20
dead, and possibly up to 50.

Subsequent international reactions criticized the government for use
of excessive force and violence to disperse demonstrators.

IMPLICATIONS: Ter-Petrossian’s success in running a popular campaign
has shaken the governing Kocharyan-Sarkissian duo which, after ten
years in power, seems to have grossly underestimated the extent of
public dissatisfaction with the regime. The authorities clearly did
not expect Ter-Petrossian to be capable of mustering a wave of
popular protests, particularly given that he remains unpopular
amongst many Armenians who remember the economic hardships that
plagued his presidency in 1990s, while many disapprove of his
position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, not only did he
manage to attract people to the streets, but he has also managed to
coalesce the fractious opposition political forces around him and,
moreover, against the ruling regime. All of this occurred without
Ter-Petrossian offering any specific program of change apart from a
change of regime from the Kocharyan-Sarkissian `kleptocracy’.
Especially worrying for Kocharyan and Sarkissian, who both come from
Nagorno-Karabakh, were the signs of defections from the Yerevan elite
in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the prosecutor’s office.

The electoral success, even if contested by the opposition, could
have given Sarkissian a chance to re-assert control by playing on the
opposition’s lack of internal coherence and a united program.
Co-opting Arthur Baghdasarian was an important step in this regard.
On the other hand, it is not clear how much power Baghdasarian now
commands. Ter-Petrossian has been claiming for some time now that
Baghdasarian’s supporters are joining him and Baghdasarian’s u-turn
is unlikely to fare well with his voters.

On the other hand, the external situation played in the regime’s
hands. The lack of foreign media attention to Armenia, the largely
benevolent and superficial reports of international observers, and
the keen interest of all neighbors and major powers to prevent any
new hotspot from emerging made it easier for the government to quell
the opposition tide. However, the death of protesters is a watershed
which has made Armenia’s political future all too uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS: It is too early to tell how the political situation in
Armenia will develop. However, several observations can be offered.
To begin with, the options of the incumbent regime seem to be very
limited. It is likely to try to run things `as usual’, put the blame
for post-electoral violence on the opposition led by Ter-Petrossian
and, step-by-step, isolate him. Co-opting Baghdasarian was one of the
first steps in this direction. It remains to be seen whether
Baghdasarian will be able to recover his credibility with his
electorate and whether he will emerge as a serious contender for
high-level political posts in the future.

But even if Sarkissian succeeds in calming the situation down, and
keeps himself in power, his credibility has been severely undermined.
Even many of his current supporters are likely to blame him for the
events of 1-2 March for years to come. It is possible that the whole
institution of the presidency could be weakened as a result, and that
power will increasingly gravitate to the National Assembly.

The outgoing president, Robert Kocharyan, has not announced his
future plans, but it is widely believed that he will implement the
`Russian scenario’ and replace Sarkissian as prime minister. By doing
so, he will be able to contribute to the consolidation of his and
Sarkissian’s power.

As for Ter-Petrossian, it remains to be seen whether his supporters
will be able to sustain a protracted public protest when the state of
emergency lifts. Should he be unsuccessful, he may have lost possibly
his last chance to re-enter Armenian politics. So far, many of his
supporters have been imprisoned, and some charged with attempting a
coup d’état. Many went into hiding, fearing reprisals from the
authorities.

In the short term, Armenia is likely to remain volatile, and the
possibility of renewed violence is present. In the mid-term, two
scenarios can be envisaged: stabilization with a broad coalition
government with simmering discontent and pressures to `re-open’ the
political and media space; or increasingly hard authoritarianism,
essentially military rule, keeping the opposition in jail.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. Blanka Hancilova is analyst of international
relations with a focus on the CIS and the co-founder of Apreco
Consulting Group.

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