Author: Tigranian Ani

International Herald Tribune, France
Aug 24 2008

The Caucasus moment

By Vartan Oskanian
Published: August 24, 2008
YEREVAN, Armenia:

Although we could see the clouds gathering, the recent Georgia-Russia
confrontation shook us all. No one had allowed themselves to believe
that mixed messages and complicated agendas would come to such a head,
causing so much devastation, loss of life and geopolitical chaos.

The South Ossetia conflict should not be viewed solely through the
larger prism of Georgia-Russia relations. This is an ethnic conflict,
after all, and one of several in the Caucasus. It is a warning to the
international community: If pipeline safety is a concern now, then
imagine the very real dangers that an Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict
over Nagorno Karabakh would create.

Therefore, in order to seriously tackle the more difficult conflicts
throughout this region, the comparatively more straightforward
security and stability issues must be resolved first – and quickly.

Conflicts in the region would be viewed in a wholly different, more
reassuring and tolerant context if there were a binding and strong
security pact that assured non-use of force.

These conflicts are not frozen. In the absence of a security pact,
there is an arms build up that is in itself destabilizing, distorting
national budgets and hampering the normal development of civil
society.

Yet in the Caucasus, our countries and peoples have lived under a
common umbrella far more than we have been divided. Today, we share a
common vision of European integration, a vision that is greater and
more enduring than issues that divide us. It is in the broader context
of European integration that our issues should be resolved.

Although integration with Europe is not controversial, NATO expansion
is. Never in history has a grand coalition formed to defeat a
particular enemy survived after the task was completed. Not after the
Napoleonic wars, not after World War I and not after World War II.

After the West’s Cold War victory, two things happened. NATO tried to
reinvent itself by directing its attention and resources to other
regions and addressing other problems. Containing Russia was not a
declared intention. And NATO created the Euro Atlantic Partnership
Council, which invited all Eastern Bloc and former Soviet republics to
participate.

This was visionary and potentially sustainable. After all, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of
Europe extended their efficacy in that way by including the remnants
of the USSR. Not only did they remain relevant and viable, they
contributed immeasurably to our own growth and development.

But NATO also planned to continue and even expand in the same form,
even after its stated goal had long been met. Given the changed
security environment and Russia’s great security sensitivities, this
was, it appears, a strategic mistake.

Georgia’s eagerness to get into NATO is understandable. But the
security benefits to Georgia that NATO membership would bring would be
offset by the creation of a dividing line in the Caucasus, and its
attendant security challenges.

Perhaps this is the Caucasus moment: A historic opportunity, in the
context of a new regional security pact, for Brussels, Washington and
Moscow to meet with Tbilisi, Yerevan and Baku and create a nonaligned
Caucasus, free of security memberships and adversarial alliances. Such
positive, engaged, inclusive neutrality will be possible and
beneficial all around.

This would be in the best interest of this highly combustible
region. A U.S.-Russia confrontation at the Georgia-Russia level will
make life very difficult, not just for us here in Armenia but also for
Azerbaijan and Turkey.

It is in the context of these existential security issues that we must
view the recent Turkish proposal for a Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform.

The idea of such a pact was floated already in 1999. The concept found
favor because there were fresh memories of the use of force in our
region, and the urgency of security arrangements was
evident. Opposition to Russian interests was not yet deep and there
were no tensions through proxies. But even during such a honeymoon,
the idea didn’t become reality.

Today, force has been used again, and perhaps for that reason, the
idea has resurfaced. But today, with the threat of a renewed Cold-War
mentality, divisive lines may be drawn through these mountains and all
regional relations will become unimaginably complicated. That is,
where there still are relations.

Turkey’s proposal is therefore interesting and the urgency is not lost
on anyone. But the concept must be developed right and implemented
well. But we’ve been down this road before in this part of the world,
where good intentions were sidetracked by the very political problems
they were meant to resolve.

The Black Sea Economic Cooperation pact, for example, was created
precisely for the purpose of bringing together those who otherwise
shared no common forum for economic cooperation and the resolution of
problems. But it’s effectiveness has been limited because Turkey
lacked the commitment to use the forum as a way to relate with a
country like Armenia, with whom its borders are closed.

The proposal today, in this new tense environment, must be more
serious and sustained. It must marginalize no one. Security issues are
intertwined, and they ought to be addressed in a stability pact with a
comprehensive, strong security component.

During his visit to Baku last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan discussed the Turkish plan and publicly made reference
to Armenia’s inclusion. It is also a fortuitous coincidence that
President Abdullah Gul of Turkey has been invited by President Serzh
Sargsian of Armenia to watch the Turkey-Armenia FIFA World Cup
qualifying match on Sept. 6 together.

This offers an opportunity for these two neighbors to discuss common
security challenges and pave the way for a region of peace.

Vartan Oskanian was foreign minister of Armenia from 1998 to April
2008. He is the founder of the Civilitas Foundation in Yerevan, which
addresses foreign policy, democracy and development issues in the
Caucasus.

/24/opinion/edoskanian.php

BÄ°A, Turkey
Aug 23 2008

Police Investigates Osman Hayal 19 Months After Dink’s Murder

It has been suspected all along that Ogün Smast, Hrant Dink’s
killer, was not alone at the scene on the day of the murder. Now the
police is considering the possibility that Osman Hayal, Yasin Hayal’s
brother, may have accompanied Ogün Samast on that day.

Bia news center – Trabzon-Ä°stanbul
22-08-2008

Istanbul’ s 14th High Criminal Court asked for additional time to keep
Osman Hayal in custody in connection with the murder of Hrant
Dink. Osman Hayal is brother of the alleged instigator of the murder
case, Yasin Hayal.

Osman Hayal was brought to Istanbul from Tarabzon’s Pelitli region two
days ago on August 20. He was confronted with the eye witnesses and
will be taken to the court after his initial questioning at the Polic
Department is completed (August 23).

Cinmen: If all the responsible parties not punished then the murder
will stay as an unsolved murder

Commenting about the latest developments to the NTV, Ergin Cinmen, one
of the lawyers of the Dink Family, said that the findings that had
shown Osman Hayal’s telephone had been giving a signal from Istanbul
on the day of the murder need to be investigated thoroughly.

Moreover, Cinmen stated that if all those parties in Istanbul and
Trabzon Police Departments, Trabzon Gendarmerie, and the Police
Intelligent Department were not punished for their responsibility and
negligence in the murder, then the case would stay as an unsolved
murder.

Osman Hayal had claimed that he was in Trabzon on the day of the
murder, but his telephone had given signal from
Kısıklı, Istanbul on the same day. The reports in
the media had also claimed that Osman Hayal was in Istanbul on the day
of the murder. Osman Hayal had been denying this so far.

`The real perpetrators are outside, find them’

Osman Hayal had reacted in the statement he had given to the Trabzon
newspaper Ä°lkbahar on January 2008 to the reports that had
appeared in the media that he was in Istanbul on the day of the
murder. He had defended himself using Rakel Dink’s words `Those who
make murderers out of babies’.

`Enough, I wish they do not mess with us anymore. They are trying to
distort it. The real perpetrators are outside. Have them find the real
perpetrator who makes murderers out of babies.’

Police took Osman Hayal into custody after nineteen months

The images broadcasted by Show TV a while ago had shown an individual
talking on his phone with his back turned to the Agos building and
looking occasionally at someone near the building. Later, the same
person is seen watching, with another individual, Ogün Samast’s
running away from the scene and they too disappear in a construction
site.

The identities of these people are still not known. The police is
looking into the possibility that whether or not Osman Hayal might
have accompanied the actual shooter, Ogün Samast, on the day of
the murder, January 19, 2007. They are looking agains at the security
cameras of the bank near the murder scene. (EÃ-/EZÃ-/TB)

5% INFLATION RECORDED IN ARMENIA IN JULY 2008

ARKA
Aug 20, 2008

YEREVAN, August 20. /ARKA/. National Statistical service of Armenia
says 4.5% inflation was recorded in Armenia in July 2008, compared
with December 2007.

Consumer prices grew 9.2% in the first half of 2008, compared with
the same period a year earlier.

Four-percent (±1.5%) inflation is planned in the 2008 state
budget.

–Boundary_(ID_a9tGMGN4zXJNqHLgFFUW mw)–

IRAN, ARMENIA HIGHLIGHT ENERGY COOPERATION

Tehran Times
Aug 22 2008
Iran

TEHRAN – Iran’s Energy Minister Parviz Fatah underlined the importance
of Iran and Armenia’s cooperation in the field of energy.

"Islamic Republic of Iran seeks developing cooperation with other
countries especially the neighboring countries," Fatah explained,
MNA reported.

"The initial studies of Meghri dam and Aras hydropower plant, as an
important project, is about to be finished and the implementation
operation will be started as soon as the required financing sources
are secured," he stated.

Referring to the region’s military conflict crisis and the impact of
war upon the region’s power transmission lines, the visiting Armenian
Energy Minister Armen Movsisyan said, "The new situation has affected
our country’s import and export so we seek new ways to supply our
energy needs."

Movsisyan expressed hope that during Ahmadinejad’s next year visit
to Armenia the two countries’ presidents approve this project

IMPORTS OF CARTRIDGES FROM ARMENIA
by by Gjergj Erebara

Shekulli
Aug 18 2008
Albania

Until now it was believed that over the past few years Albania had
been selling a section of the stocks of its military armaments which
it inherited from the communist regime. The stocks of cartridges for
Kalashnikovs and other weapons of the Warsaw Treaty standards have
often put Albania on Amnesty International’s list of countries engaged
in unscrupulous arms trading and in selling weapons to countries
placed under embargo.

However, what has been concealed from the public up to now is the
fact that Albania imported military ammunition worth 520,000 euros
(or $713,000) from Armenia during 2007. The reason for importing these
amounts of ammunition remains a complete mystery. All that is known
is that 2007 was a year in which there was intensive trading in arms.

It has also been said that Albania’s stocks of cartridges are
sufficient to supply even the Afghan or Iraqi forces. However, the
latest information indicates that Albania has been active not only
in emptying its depots, but also in playing a transit role in trading
ammunition produced elsewhere.

The cartridges for military use imported from Armenia in 2007
represent the biggest amount of military cartridges ever imported
by our country since 1999. During the Kosova [Kosovo] war in 1999,
Albania imported military ammunition worth 2.1 million euros, all
from Western countries, such as Belgium, Holland, Italy, and Germany.

Multiple connection with Armenia

Last year a ship loaded with cannon shells was stopped by the Turkish
police on the Bosphorous Canal. The ship was transporting shells
purchased in Albania to Armenia. The Albanian Government refused to
publicly admit that it was exporting arms to that country. However,
it also failed to deny this widely publicized piece of news. The
containers with cannon ammunition were turned back to Durres. They
are currently in a nearby base of the Albanian army.

Exports multiplied

Albania has continuously exported military ammunition. However, in
2006 the exports quadrupled over those in 2005 and the figures were
also high last year, amounting to two million euros. The countries
on the map of the Albanian ammunition exports include Afghanistan,
Israel, Argentina, Georgia, Iran, the Christmas Islands, Iceland
(a country with no army), Saudi Arabia, and others. In total, the
value of imports and exports is insignificant. However, the tragedy
in Gerdec and other factors show that the arms trade is a highly
profitable, and that an unscrupulous business has been conducted by
Albanian governments over the years, without thinking much about the
ultimate use of this ammunition.

Albanian ammunition finished

One of many documents made public after the Gerdec tragedy showed that
there were no longer a sufficient number of Kalashnikov cartridges
in the Albanian army depots to deliver to Gerdec, on the basis of
the contract with the US company. This indicates that the Albanian
depots have been emptied of the type of cartridge that was most used
and most produced in Albania during the communist era. The imports of
military cartridges from Armenia were apparently aimed at increasing
stocks to sell them elsewhere.

CHAIRMAN OF UNION OF WINEMAKERS OF ARMENIA SAYS WINE PRODUCTION IN ARMENIA SUFFERS DECLINE

arminfo
2008-08-21 15:37:00

ArmInfo. ‘Over the first half of 2007 Armenia produced 1.750 million
liters of wine whereas in the first half of 2008 production was
1.391 million liters hereby falling down to the indicator of the
first half of 2006’, Chairman of Union of Winemakers of Armenia Avag
Haroutiunyan said.

He said the situation with brandy is quite different. Thus, in the
first half of 2007 brandy production in Armenia totaled 6.391 million
liters whereas in the first half of 2008 7.307 million liters were
produced. Thus, the growth for the current year was 12%. ‘The given
figures are evidence of more profitable production and sale of brandy
than wine. Probably, part of grapes earlier used for wine making was
used in brandy production in the current year’, A. Haroutiunyan said.

Several dozens of companies are engaged in wine making in the
country. By tradition all the brands of wines are produced in Armenia:
Areni, Voskevaz, Vernashen and others.

NALBANDIAN GIVING INTERVIEW TO ZAMAN

AZG Armenian Daily #150
21/08/2008

Armenia-Turkey

According to information supplied by the Press office of the Armenian
Foreign Ministry, Edward Nalbandian gave interview to Zaman newspaper,
Turkey. Being asked, what is his point of view about the Turkish
Prime Minister’s statement on starting negotiations with Turkey,
Foreign Minister Nalbandian answered that Armenia has always advocated
peace negotiations and dialogue, especially in the issues referring
to security and partnership in our region. He said the statement of
the Prime Minister of Turkey is welcome in sense of normalizing the
relation between our countries.

TURKISH PRIME MINISTER: "I WILL DISCUSS CREATION OF THE PLATFORM OF PEACE AND COOPERATION IN THE CAUCASUS REGION WITH THE LEADERSHIP OF AZERBAIJAN"

Today.Az
s/politics/47093.html
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babajan will meet and discuss creation of
a new platform of security in the Caucasus with the Foreign Minister
of Russia and then hold discussions with Armenia, said Prime Minister
of Turkey Tayip Erdogan, according to Turkish Daily News.

He noted that the events in South Ossetia make creation of the platform
of peace and cooperation in the Caucasus region important. "I will
discuss this platform with the Azerbaijani leadership. Turkey is
interested in peace and stability in the Caucasus", noted he.

Erdogan also announced that the format of talks with Armenia on
the issue will be defined following Babajan’s meeting with Foreign
Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov.

It should be reminded that Erdogan managed to discuss the security
system in the Caucasus, proposed by Turkey, in Tbilisi and Moscow. Both
sides positively assessed the Turkish initiative. On August 20 Erdogan
directed to Baku to meet Ilham Aliyev and discuss the initiative
with him.

LESSONS IN HOW TO LOSE IN STYLE
By David Leggat

Independent.co.uk Web
Tuesday, 19 August 2008

China collectively dropped into a state of despair yesterday. When
Liu Xiang, the defending Olympic champion, pulled a hamstring in a
false start to his 100m hurdles heat, the nation limped off with him.

Xiang and basketball giant Yao Ming are the face of the Games for
China.

Xiang was expected to provide the perfect gift to the nation in
his final.

These Games have brought us graphic, vastly different images of
individual despair, too.

Consider Greco-Roman wrestler Ari Abrahamian, triple jumper Hrysopiyi
Devetzi and shooter Matthew Emmons.

Abrahamian, the Armenian-born Swedish grappler, had his bronze medal
removed by the International Olympic Committee after kicking up a
stink over the judging of his semi-final loss. He had to be restrained
from body slamming the officials. These are men best argued with from
a distance.

He clearly has not been reading his Rudyard Kipling lately, the bit
about treating the twin imposters of triumph and despair with an
even hand.

Consider next Devetzi. She hurtled down the track for her final
leap, striving for the silver medal, if only she could squeeze out
an extra few centimetres. She made a hash of it, whereupon she burst
into tears and ran into the arms of her coach.

Soon after, the bronze medal secured, she was gallivanting round the
National Stadium track, Greek flag draped over her shoulders doing
cartwheels. Despair to delight in minutes.

And finally consider American rifleman Emmons.

In Athens, with the gold one half-decent shot away, he had a brain
explosion, firing at the wrong target.

In the 50m three-positional event here, he had the gold in the bag
again, if only he put the final bullet somewhere near the middle of
the board.

Instead Emmons dropped a clanger, scoring a hopeless 4.4 out of 10,
dropping him out of the medals altogether.

He got a standing ovation. Maybe the Chinese crowd knew his history
and sympathised; maybe they were cheering because his boo-boo had
given a Chinese shooter the gold.

"When I was getting on the trigger the gun just went off," the amiable
Emmons said later with a "life goes on" demeanour.

So not a man you’d want on a hunting trip, then, but a likeable and
popular chap who knows his Kipling.

ABC Newspaper, Spain
Aug 14 2008

NATO to blame for conflict in Caucasus region

[Commentary by Javier Ruperez: "Georgia, Kosovo: so far, yet so
close"]

A few days ago – on 21 July in ABC – I argued that Ukraine and Georgia
should become NATO members, meeting the wishes expressed by both
countries in this sense. Given the tragic events that are taking place
in South Ossetia, which forms part of Georgia, the least that can be
argued is that if NATO had met those demands, the Georgian troops
would not have intervened militarily in the separatist territory, nor
would the Russian troops have invaded Georgian territory.

At first glance, the Georgian President’s decision to put an end to
the secession in South Ossetia by force seems to be an obscene
miscalculation. The history of tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow
since the Caucasian Republic proclaimed independence is long and the
constant meddling of the Russian authorities in Georgian internal
affairs is sufficiently known. The secessionist territories of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been openly backed by Russia and the
secessionist leaders of these territories have never concealed their
affection for the Kremlin. A military action against South Ossetia by
Georgia had of necessity to result in a confrontation with the heirs
of the Soviet Union. And it does not take a military expert to know
where the reality of power lies.

If the Georgian attack had been planned to coincide with the beginning
of the Beijing Olympics, expecting that the non-existent Olympic truce
would prevent Russia from reacting or to find help in the West, the
decision could not have been more short-sighted. The Russians are not
willing to jeopardize its position in the Caucasus, and the West,
apart from its usual expressions of solidarity, is not planning to
engage its forces in a conflict aimed at reunifying Georgia. On the
other hand, it is obvious that the news about recent clashes have not
been welcomed in European capitals, not only because of the reminder
they contain, but due to the nuisance they entail.

And, in fact, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili might have made a
mistake in beginning hostilities, in choosing the appropriate moment
to launch the attack, in the reasons that led him to make such a
serious decision, or in assessing the consequences. And many people
will certainly be willing to rebuke him for it, namely all those who
closed their eyes to the dormant conflicts in Georgia and other parts
of the Caucasus, hoping that time, like a magic ointment, will help to
resolve them peacefully.

However, demanding Georgia’s territorial integrity be respected was no
mistake. The secessions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which were
systematically encouraged by Russia, have contributed to destabilizing
Georgia, as happened in Upper Karavaj, the Armenian enclave in
Azerbaijan, and the Dniester Republic, Moldova’s eastern strip, which
was chosen as a retirement haven by Russian senior military officials
and kept by Moscow as its particular stronghold. The numerous
mediation efforts made by the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to stamp out these sources of tension
have been systematically hindered by Moscow’s inflexibility. It is no
wonder that the legitimate holders of the respective national
sovereignties are attempting to impose by force what they were denied
by reason and law. We should not forget the continuous and blatant
provocations carried out by Russia in the pursuit of its interests and
of the destabilization of its rival. A few days ago, Tbilisi denounced
and the international observers confirmed the constant violations of
the Georgian airspace by Russian aircraft. Saakashvili does not seem
to be a wonder of diplomatic self-restraint, but we should ask
ourselves: Who would be able to keep calm with such aggressive and
surly neighbours?

If NATO had been favourably disposed towards Georgia’s accession to
the club, Georgia’s decision to intervene militarily in South Ossetia
would not have been made. The consultation and decisionmaking
mechanisms within the Alliance would have curbed the eagerness of the
pro-American Georgian president. And, of course, the Russians should
have taken into account the costs stemming from an attack on a NATO
member. Everything has been thrown into the bottomless pit of lost
opportunities.

And South Ossetia will probably be annexed de facto, if not de jure,
to Russia’s sovereignty and to North Ossetia. Russia’s gross violation
of the border and territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is
a member of the UN and the OSCE, will result in many reproaches
against Russia, several useless sessions of the UN Security Council, a
significant rise in international tension in the region, and nothing
else. Is anyone in the West willing to die for Georgia’s territorial
integrity? And, furthermore, who will believe in the demands
advocating the return to that territorial integrity when a few weeks
ago the same people demanding it were not ashamed to deny it to Serbia
by recognizing Kosovo’s independence?

Russia has not resigned itself to losing the Soviet Union’s
territorial extension and the western countries have not assessed
properly the consequences of the post-imperial syndrome. Washington
insists on dealing with Moscow as if Stalin – who, by the way, was
Georgian – continued to occupy the Kremlin and the western European
countries oscillate between being afraid of the bad-tempered Russian
bear [as published] and flattery towards it as an energy power. The
result is a mistaken and unsteady policy: Kosovo should have never
been granted independence and Georgia and Ukraine should have been
accepted into NATO, as were Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Today,
with the Russian troops in Georgia, it is too late to do something,
apart from attempting to settle serious problems and prevent tension
from reaching a point of no return.

International politics have never been a paragon of coherence, hence
they are not very different from any human being’s life. But the
mistakes made by those who control and implement those policies
usually lead to risks that result in considerable disasters.
Everything usually begins with small miscalculations, insignificant
improvisations, and hesitations. One day is the mistake in Kosovo; the
next day the refusal to grant NATO membership to Georgia, Ukraine, and
Macedonia. Later, it may be the monstrous refusal to start EU
accession talks with Turkey. Shortly before this, it was the untinged
belief that the intelligence services chiefs – how ironic! – know
everything, even the number of weapons of mass destruction that the
enemy has in its possession. Thus, step by step, we have found the
Russian troops 60 km away from Tbilisi. Within the cacophony [as
published], nobody is in charge of counting the dead. After all, as
Macbeth said, life "is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and
fury, signifying nothing." Perhaps, Brussels, Washington, and Moscow
should read Shakespeare before it is too late.

[translated]