CASPIAN SEA ENERGY AND BIG POWERS
Tehran Times
September 20, 2007
Iran
Turkmenistan and China signed a cooperation contract on natural gas
during Niyazov’s visit to Beijing in April 2006. According to that
contract, Turkmenistan is expected to export 30 billion cu. m. of
natural gas per year to China. Exports will begin in 2009 and will
continue for 30 years. The two countries’ officials have also reached
an agreement on construction of a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan
to China.
Inaugurating construction operations of the new gas pipeline, which
will cover Turkmenistan, Russia, and Kazakhstan, the president
of Turkmenistan stated that in view of the existence of huge
oil and gas reserves in Turkmenistan, the country is considering
plans to build Turkmenistan-Iran, Turkmenistan-China, as well as
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipelines and is also
planning to implement trans-Caspian gas pipeline plan. ———-
Outcome of building Russia-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan gas line
Agreement about construction of Turkmenistan-Russia-Kazakhstan gas
pipeline has many outcomes, which can be enumerated as follows.
Perhaps the first and the most important outcome of the plan is to
bolster energy routes via Russia and improve its standing in the face
of other rivaling countries.
Despite the fact that the plan is still rudimentary, news sources
have called it "Russia’s gas victory over the United States."
The United States had already launched a vast effort to take the
pipeline to Europe without crossing Russia. Even the U.S. Vice
President Dick Cheney visited the Central Asia in 2006 for this
purpose.
Speaking on the sidelines of signing the contract, the Russian
President Vladimir Putin warned the European Union and the United
States against interfering in the internal affairs of Caspian Sea
littoral countries.
Construction of the pipeline would be a great triumph for Moscow. By
restricting all energy transfer routes to their soil, the Russians
are willing to regain their traditional control over Central Asia
countries.
The United States, as the most serious rival for Russia in the region,
is advocating oil and gas export lines that would serve its long-term
interests and is trying to prevent oil and gas pipelines from going
through either Russia or Iran.
The United States had come up with a plan according to which
Turkmenistan’s gas would have been taken to Europe in the absence of
Russia. The U.S. plan sought to minimize role of Russia in supplying
gas to Europe.
Russia, however, has been able to thwart part of the U.S. plan for
building a pipeline to transfer Central Asian gas by signing the
new contract.
Secondly, construction of the new pipeline can make construction
of other gas lines which cross the Caspian Sea from east to west,
especially a trans-Caspian gas pipeline, practically economically
infeasible. At the same time, the deal may lead to intensification
of the existing rivalry in the region.
Thirdly, such agreements will harm the Islamic Republic of Iran in
two ways: first, oil and gas pipelines built according to such plans
bypass Iran and this means a loss of bargaining chips in the Caspian
Sea. Second, such agreements have legal aspects. Trilateral agreements
of this type are practically turned into procedures in which the legal
regime of the Caspian Sea is drawn up against Iran’s interests. In
fact, Iran is seeking a comprehensive solution based on agreement among
all neighboring countries through bilateral or trilateral contracts.
Caspian Sea littoral states should consider Iran as a country that
connects the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf. Iran plays a determining
role in both regions.
Therefore, Iran is able to play an effective role to promote
cooperation in both regions.
However, construction of a gas line along the eastern coast of the
Caspian Sea can be used as a good ground for creating a balance of
power between Russia and Western countries and this can serve the
interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. On the whole, care should
be taken to prevent such balance from ignoring Iran’s natural position
and causing its national interests to be sacrificed. ————–
Conclusion and proposals
Cooperation between Iran and Central Asia and Caucasus in oil and gas
projects is the most logical and the most economic way for exporting
Caspian Sea oil and gas. Using the existing network of pipelines and
constructing new pipelines will facilitate oil swap deals among Iran,
Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan up to 700,000 barrels per day.
Studies carried out on global supply and demand of gas in the future
show that the Middle East and Central Asia will be playing an important
role in future natural gas deals that would take place in the Indian
Subcontinent, China, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, as well as parts of
Europe and Asia.
In the long run, cooperation among major gas producing countries
will assure the use of the most economic methods for developing gas
resources and creating gas export networks. Iran, Turkmenistan, and
Kazakhstan can cooperate on developing pipeline networks that would
be able to carry gas from the said countries to international and
regional markets.
While politics has always played a determining role in many regional
issues, this reality should not be ignored that under the existing
circumstances, economic factors are playing an equally important
role in rivalry among regional countries. In reality, Iran is the
most logical and the most economic route for exporting oil and gas
from the Caspian Sea.
In fact, political hostility shown by the United States toward the
Islamic Republic of Iran, has blocked the most economic route for
exporting oil and gas from such Caspian Sea states as the Republic
of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. This will deprive the
said countries of making the most of their oil and gas revenues and
is also against the most basic principles of liberal markets, which
is also supported by the United States.
Also, U.S. hostility against Iran has increased dependence of global
energy markets on Russia and has dealt irreparable economic blows to
Europe and even the United States. At the same time, such behavior
and its consequences have lowered the United States’ standing in the
eyes of the Iranian people in comparison to Russia.
The Islamic Republic of Iran should embark on a multilateral and
balanced economic game in the Caspian Sea. Iran’s natural position
will provide the country with a good opportunity to claim a leadership
role in the region.
Cooperation, providing infrastructures, and suitable economic
ground for secure and sustainable transfer of energy to major
consuming countries can thwart or at least reduce the impact of
U.S. measures. Any carelessness about defending Iran’s position and
construction of pipelines along other routes will inflict historical
and irreparable damages to neighboring countries. Naturally, judgment
of next generations of Iranians about this issue would be tough.
At the same time, construction of pipelines through Iran will provide
Iran with a structural and long-term opportunity and can boost its
bargaining power in other fields and in the face of other regional
and global players.
Iran should move in a direction that would make other regional
countries in Caspian Sea area recognize its role as a link between
the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Iran plays a decisive role
in both regions and can continue its effective and positive role in
promoting cooperation between the two regions.
Littoral countries of the Caspian Sea should cooperate with Tehran on
the construction of a pipeline which would transfer the Caspian oil
to Persian Gulf via Iran. At the same time, Persian Gulf countries
can be actively present in developing infrastructures in Caspian Sea
states by increasing their investments there.
By connecting two important energy hubs, the Islamic Republic of
Iran can increase its own bargaining power in international energy,
economic and political fields. No effort should be spared to provide
suitable ground for the realization of this goal.