Author: Tavakalian Edgar

THE POWDER-KEG OF EURASIA: MILITARIZATION IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS COULD HAVE DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES
by Anatoly Tsyganok
Translated by Elena Leonova

Source: Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, No. 5, February 9, 2007, p. 2
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
February 14, 2007 Wednesday

AN OVERVIEW OF MILITARY FORCES IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS; The
Greater Caucasus includes territories belonging to six UN member
states (Russian Federation, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey,
Iran) and three unrecognized republics (Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
Nagorno-Karabakh). Analysts are keeping close watch on this region’s
militarization processes.

The Greater Caucasus certainly isn’t the most peaceful part of
the world these days – but it’s not the only place where the
situation threatens to unleash new wars. Moreover, in contrast to
other hot-spots, at least this region doesn’t have any large-scale
hostilities under way, with millions of people being killed or
injured. Yet this particular region is getting very intense attention
from leading world powers, inter-state alliances, and various
international organizations. And this is entirely understandable:
it is a highly significant region from the geopolitical, economic,
and military-strategic standpoints.

The Greater Caucasus includes territories belonging to six United
Nations member states (Russian Federation, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Turkey, Iran) and three unrecognized republics (Abkhazia,
South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh). Relations between them aren’t
exactly straightforward, to put it mildly. That’s why analysts are
keeping such a close watch on this region’s militarization processes.

Experts estimate, for example, that the Russian Armed Forces have a
total of 300,000 personnel in the North Caucasus.

The former Soviet republics

Of the former Soviet republics, Azerbaijan has the most numerous Armed
Forces: 95,000 personnel, including 85,000 in the Army, 8,000 in the
Air Force and Air Defense Forces, and 2,000 in the Navy. Aside from the
Armed Forces, Azerbaijan also has a National Guard (2,500 personnel),
Interior Ministry Troops (12,000), and Border Guards (5,000). Evidence
of Azerbaijan’s militarization can be found in its defense spending:
in 2007 this will exceed the entire budget of Armenia, with which
Baku has almost-hostile relations.

The Army of Azerbaijan consists of five army corps. The First, Second,
and Third corps are concentrated against Nagorno-Karabakh, although
part of the Second corps is deployed on the Azeri-Iranian border. The
Fourth (Baku) corps covers the capital city and the shoreline;
the Fifth corps is based at Nakhichevani. The Army has 292 tanks,
706 armored vehicles, 405 artillery pieces and mortars, 75 BM-21
multiple rocket launcher systems, and 370 anti-tank rocket launchers.

The Air Force of Azerbaijan (61 combat aircraft, 46 auxiliary aircraft)
includes a combined aviation regiment, a fighter and bomber squadron,
and separate squadrons of fighters, reconnaissance planes, and training
aircraft. Main airbases: Kyurdamir, Zeinalabdin (equipped with a NATO
air traffic monitoring system), Dallyar, Gyandzha, Kala.

The Air Defense Forces of Azerbaijan include four air defense brigades,
one air defense regiment, and two separate radar battalions. They
are equipped with S-200, S-125, S-75 (35 launchers), Krug, and Osa
air defense systems.

The Navy of Azerbaijan has a brigade of surface vessels (guard
division, landing vessels division, mine-sweeper division, search
and rescue division, training vessel division), a national waters
security brigade, a marines battalion, an intelligence and special
assignment center, and coastguard units. The Navy has a total of 14
warships and patrol boats and 22 auxiliary vessels, but not all of
them are serviceable at present, due to various technical problems
and a shortage of experienced specialists.

Azerbaijan’s main military-strategic partner is Turkey. Educating
military personnel in the pan-Turkic spirit is considered highly
important. At the same time, the Azeri leadership is striving to make
Azerbaijan a NATO member. As of January 1, 2007 the Army staff and
the Baku corps have been operating on the basis of NATO documents.

Azeri officers are trained according to NATO programs. Overall, the
combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan is not at a high
level, and they are not ready for large-scale military action.

Experts say, however, that Azerbaijan’s firepower has increased
significantly since it took delivery of 9A52 Smerch 300mm multiple
rocket launcher systems from Ukraine in 2004 (some analysts even
claim that the addition of these weapons could disrupt the military
balance in the Trans-Caucasus).

* * *

The Armenian Armed Forces have a total of around 53,500 personnel,
mostly in the Army. The Air Defense Forces have 3,900 personnel
and the Air Force has up to 700. The Armenian Army has eight
operational-tactical rocket launchers, 198 T-72 tanks, 320 armored
personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 360 field
artillery pieces, mortars, and multiple rocket launcher systems,
around 160 100mm guns for firing on ground targets (previously used to
avert avalanches), and 55 air defense system launcers (S-75, S-125,
Krug, Osa). The Armenian Air Force has seven fighters (six Su-25s,
one MiG-25), 12 combat helicopters (seven Mi-24s, three Mi-24Ks,
two Mi-24Rs), and 26 auxiliary aircraft (two L-39s, 16 Mi-2s,
eight Mi-8MTs).

Most of Armenia’s military forces and resources are concentrated
on the border with Azerbaijan. There are several battalions in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone itself, on occupied Azeri territory.

Units from the Fifth Army Corps are stationed close to the
Armenian-Turkish border. The main Air Defense Forces group is stationed
along the line of contact with the Azeri Armed Forces.

Armenia has no attack weapons on its borders with Georgia or Iran.

Russia has a closer relationship with Armenia than with any other
country in the South Caucasus. After Russia’s two remaining bases in
Georgia are withdrawn by 2008, Armenia will be the only country in
the Trans-Caucasus where Russia can deploy a group of troops.

The troops involved in Russian-Armenian joint air defense operate
according to a system developed in the Soviet era: joint monitoring
of the airspace to the south, using combat aviation and air defense
units. Essentially, this is an anti-NATO air defense option; de
facto, it’s anti-Turkey – despite a significant thaw in Moscow-Ankara
relations of late.

* * *

The forces controlled by the Defense Ministry and Interior Ministry
of Georgia have a total of around 30,000 personnel (23,000 with the
Defense Ministry, 7,000 with the Interior Ministry). There are also
the Border Guard Department (6,703 personnel) and the National Guard
(2,300 personnel).

The Georgian Army has up to 80 infantry fighting vehicles, around 100
tanks (T-55, T-64, T-72), 18 Grad multiple rocket launcher systems,
and over 115 artillery pieces.

The Georgian Air Force (1,300 personnel) has seven Su-25 assault
aircraft, ten L-39 training aircraft, and 24 helicopters (three
Mi-24s, four Mi-8ts, ten American Iroquois), and seven S-125 air
defense systems.

The Georgian Navy (1,500-2,000 personnel) has two frigates (acquired
from Lithuania), one rocket-carrying patrol boat, 11 sea-going patrol
boats, and five landing patrol boats.

Georgia’s defense spending is growing significantly faster than other
sectors of its economy and industry. The Tbilisi government rejects
the idea of signing agreements with the breakaway regions – South
Ossetia and Abkhazia – on not using military force, as recommended
by the United Nations and the OSCE. Since the NATO summit in Riga,
it appears that Tbilisi is no longer aiming to go for broke and try to
regain control of those territories by military means; but the threat
of a new military conflict breaking out still remains. Similarly, we
cannot rule out a resumption of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh,
which broke away from Baku.

The unrecognized states

The Army of Nagorno-Karabakh is well-trained and well-equipped. It
has between 18,500 and 20,000 soldiers and officers; in the event of
mobilization it could call up a further 20-30,000 reserves.

Nagorno-Karabakh has 65 military personnel per thousand residents – a
higher proportion than any other Caucasus country. In this unrecognized
republic, the Armed Forces are regarded as an institution providing
stable employment, and many families depend on military salaries.

However, independent experts estimate that the Nagorno-Karabakh Army
has only 8,500 Nagorno-Karabakh citizens – along with 10,000 Armenian
citizens. In response, it is claimed that these 10,000 Armenians
are representatives of the 500,000 Armenians who originated from
Nagorno-Karabakh and are now living in Armenia.

It’s no secret, of course, that there is a high level of integration
between the Armed Forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan
admits supplying arms and various military items to Stepanakert.

Nagorno-Karabakh speaks openly of Armenian officers helping to train
its military personnel. However, Yerevan claims that no units from
the Armenian Armed Forces are present in Nagorno-Karabakh or the
occupied Azeri territories around it.

Armenian military analysts maintain that although the Armed Forces of
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are smaller than the Azeri Armed Forces,
they are more combat-capable. This is particularly applicable to
the Nagorno-Karabakh Army – it is relatively mobile and compact, and
its officers have combat experience. By mobilizing 100% of Karabakh
war veterans, it can operate as small autonomous units in mountain
terrain. The weakness of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armed Forces is their
lack of any army aviation – a constraint factor in active military
operations.

* * *

The South Ossetian Armed Forces have around 3,000 personnel, with
15,000 reserves ready to return to duty immediately in the event of a
military threat. They have 87 tanks, 95 artillery pieces and mortars
(including 72 howitzers), 23 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher
systems, 180 armored vehicles (including 80 infantry fighting
vehicles), and three Mi-8 helicopters). Around 35-40% of military
personnel are kept on alert to repel potential acts of provocation
from Georgia.

* * *

The Armed Forces of Abkhazia are organized into three groups of troops
(Central, East, West), plus the Air Force and the Navy.

According to various sources, personnel numbers are between 4,500
and 10,000, with around 28,000 reserves.

The Abkhazian Army has about 60 tanks (two-thirds are T-72s), 85
artillery pieces and mortars (including 152-mm howitzers), and 116
armored vehicles. The Air Force has two Su-27 fighters, one MiG-23,
five Su-25 assault aircraft, three L-39 training planes, one An-2,
one Yak-52, one Mi-8t helicopter, and one Mi-2.

The Navy has three divisions of sea-going patrol boats (21 Grif patrol
boats are based at Sukhumi, Ochamchiri, and Pitsunde).

Around a third of Abkhazian Armed Forces units are kept on alert to
repel any potential landings by Georgian marines and paratroopers.

Around 35-40% of military personnel and almost all mid-rank and
senior officers in the Armed Forces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
have real-world combat experience.

Turkey – Moscow’s probable partner

Present-day Turkey is a power aspiring to a leading geopolitical role
to the south of the Great Caucasus Range. Several parallel processes
are nudging Ankara toward rapprochement with Moscow.

There has been a chill in American-Turkish relations due to the war
in Iraq and attempts by the US-supported government in Baghdad to
create a Kurdish autonomous region close to Turkey’s south-eastern
border. A conflict with the European Union arose in the wake of
Greek Cyprus being accepted into the EU and continued when Ankara was
denied EU membership. The French parliament recognized the genocide
of the Armenians in the early 20th Century Ottoman Empire. Friction
developed between Ankara and Tel Aviv when it was discovered that
Israeli intelligence is active in the Kurdish autonomous region in
northern Iraq and helping to create Kurdish intelligence forces.

(Turkey continues its war against the "terrorist organization known
as the Kurdish Workers’ Party" on its territory, with incursions into
northern Iraq.)

What’s more, with Bulgaria and Romania joining NATO, there are now
some US military facilities on the Black Sea – which Moscow and Ankara
have grown accustomed to regarding as their "domestic waters."

There is some likelihood of a partnership between Russia and Turkey
in the Caucasus, despite numerous wars between the two countries in
the past.

It should be noted that the Turkish Armed Forces are an object of
national pride.

The Turkish Army (490,000 personnel) has 4,205 tanks, 4,380
armored vehicles (738 infantry fighting vehicles and 3,642 armored
personnel carriers), 6,985 field artillery pieces (2,015 towed and
868 self-propelled), over 2,000 mortars, 60 multiple rocket launcher
systems; 3,582 anti-tank weapons, 19 air defense launchers, 1,510 air
defense rocket systems, around 1,600 air defense weapons, 196 planes
and up to 300 helicopters.

The Turkish Air Force (60,000 people) has 486 combat planes, 330
auxiliary planes, and 37 helicopters, organized into two tactical
air commands.

The Turkish Navy has 14 submarines, 26 frigates with guided rockets,
21 rocket-carrying patrol boats, 18 patrol boats, 24 mine-sweepers,
29 small landing vessels, and 151 auxiliary vessels. The Navy has
53,000 personnel.

North-eastern Turkey, part of the Greater Caucasus, is home to around a
third of the Turkish Army: the 3rd Field Army (8th and 9th army corps,
48th infantry brigade, 4th tank brigade) and part of the 2nd Field Army
(7th army corps).

The actions of the ground forces are supported by the 2nd Tactical
Aviation Command and the Navy along the coast.

An important player

Iran possesses a fairly powerful military organization, with 853,000
personnel. Fewer than half of them (403,000) are part of the Armed
Forces, which include the Army (300,000), the Air Force and Air Defense
Forces (85,000), and the Navy (18,000). The remaining 450,000 personnel
belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC have 17-30 launchers and up to
175 tactical missiles with a range of 150-180 kilometers; 15 launchers
and around 250 Shihab-1 (Scud-B) operational-tactical missiles, with
a range of 300 kilometers; between 100 and 200 Shihab-2 (Scud-C)
missiles, with a range of up to 700 kilometers; and between 20 and
40 Shihab-3 missiles with a range of 1,500-2,000 kilometers.

The chief weapons of the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC also include
1,655 tanks, 1,490 armored vehicles, 2,085 towed artillery pieces, 310
self-propelled artillery pieces, around 900 multiple rocket launcher
systems, 270-306 combat planes, 580 helicopters (including 50 combat
helicopters), three submarines and six frigates, 20 rocket-carrying
patrol boats, 90 patrol boats, and 13 landing vessels.

The following forces are stationed directly in the Greater Caucasus,
on the Armenian-Iranian and Azeri-Iranian borders: the 21st and
77th infantry divisions of the Iranian Army and the 31st mechanized
division of the IRGC. The 3rd special assignment infantry division
of the IRGC, the 25th paratrooper brigade, and the 64th infantry
division are stationed on the Turkish-Iranian and Iraqi-Iraqi borders.

Around 25% of the forces and resources of the Iranian Armed Forces
and the IRGC are deployed along the Iranian coast of the Caspian Sea.

They are part of the Tehran group (30th infantry division, 16th tank
division, 23rd paratrooper division, and 58th stormtrooper division
from the Armed Forces; the 1st, 16th, 17th, 27th, 52nd infantry
divisions, the 12th infantry brigade, the 2nd mechanized division,
the 10th and 25th special assignment infantry division from the IRGC).

Iran holds quarterly military exercises – usually in western and
south-western Iran, the Persian Gulf, and near the Straits of Hormuz.

Most of the arms and military hardware used by the Iranian Armed
Forces and IRGC units date back to the 1980s and 1990s, but they are
in satisfactory condition and can be used to effect in battle. And
the Persians have always had high morale (the Islamic Republic of
Iran is capable of deploying a people’s militia of many millions).

Moreover, the experience gained in eight years of war with Iraq has
not been forgotten.

CAPTURED AZERBAIJANI SOLDIER SAMIR MAMMADOV’S THIRD LETTER DELIVERED TO HIS FAMILY

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Feb 14 2007

Today the officers of International Committee or Red Cross Azerbaijani
Office delivered captured soldier of Azerbaijani Armed Forces Samir
Mammadov’s third letter to his family, the relatives of the soldier
told the APA’s Karabakh bureau. The letter writes: "I am fine. Do
not think much of me. This is my fortune."

Samir Mammadov, who was drafted from Barda Military Registration
department, was captured in neutral zone in Gazakh-Ijevan borders on
December 24. The soldier did not have any armament. The officers of
ICRC Armenian Office have visited captured Azerbaijani soldier for
ten times.

OSCE MG CO-CHAIRS TO HOLD CONSULTATIONS IN PARIS

PanARMENIAN.Net
13.02.2007 15:59 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs Matthew Bryza (U.S.A.),
Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia) and Bernard Fassier (France), as well as OSCE
acting chairman’s personal representative Andrzej Kasprzyk will hold
consultations in Paris February 14, the PanARMENIAN.Net journalist was
told in the RF MFA working group on Nagorno Karabakh. It is supposed
during consultations the issue of organizing a meeting between Armenian
and Azeri foreign ministers on March will be discussed.

MORE THAN THREE DOZENS OF CHESS PLAYERS OF ARMENIA TO TAKE PART IN MOSCOW AEROFLOT OPEN INTERNATIONAL TOURNAMENT

Noyan Tapan
Feb 12 2007

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 12, NOYAN TAPAN. The Aeroflot Open international
traditional chess tournament will be held in Moscow on Februaru
13-23. Just the half of the tournament competition fund of 200
thousand U.S. dollars is given to the 1st group where chess players
having coefficient higher than 2549 will be involved. Grand masters
Vladimir Hakobian, Ashot Anastasian, Karen Asrian, Artashes Minasian,
Gabriel Sargsian and others will represent Armenia in the A group.

BUYUKANIT IN US AMID LOOMING CRISIS OVER ARMENIAN RESOLUTION
Lale SariÝbrahÝmoÐlu Ankara

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 12 2007

As it has become more likely that the Democrat party-controlled US
Congress will pass a resolution in April, which would declare the
killings of Armenians during 1st World War as genocide, speculations
have intensified that Turkish-US relations will receive a blow.

The Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaþar Buyukanýt left for the
US yesterday amid such increased concerns following Turkish Foreign
Abdullah Gul’s recently ended visit to Washington.

Gul’s visit was described by some US analysts as a failure, since
he was unable to achieve any success in convincing the Democrats
that an Armenian resolution would both hurt the ties between the two
countries and the US interests. The refusal of Speaker of the House,
Nancy Pelosi, to meet with Gul has been a strong signal that passage
of the Resolution is highly likely.

Turkey denies the allegations made by the Armenian diaspora that some
1.5 million Armenians died from slaughter and exile in a systematic
genocide in 1915.

Republican President George W. Bush is known to be against the bill
which has already been submitted to the foreign relations committee
of the House of Representatives. But Bush’s lack of control over
the Democrat-controlled Congress weakens expectations that Armenian
resolution will not pass.

It remains to be seen how General Buyukanýt could persuade the US
side to cancel the Armenian resolution, but like Gul he will also
touch upon other thorny issues between the two countries: such as
the PKK’s possible resurgence of its operations as snow melts in the
region, the possible negative effects of the possible US-led coalition
withdrawal from Iraq as well as the arms trade that both countries
have speeded up, following the signing of major agreements such as the
Turkish participation with the US Joint Strike fighter (JSF) program,
before the Armenian Resolution could be approved by the Congress,
which has a strong say in arms deals with the third countries.

Buyukanýt, who will be visiting the US as the official guest of the
US Chief of Staff General Peter Pace, will also meet with political
figures such as Vice President Dick Cheney, Head of the National
Security Council Steve Hadley and the Democrat Congressman Tom Lantos,
who are reportedly keen on finding out Ankara’s response to the
US-Israeli strategic partnership.

PKK operations in Europe and Turkish cross-border operation As
confirmed by both Gul and Ross Wilson, US Ambassador to Turkey,
the latest operations launched in France and in Belgium against
the PKK terrorists operating in those countries, culminating with
the capture of 14 PKK members, became possible due to Washington’s
long term efforts it made with the European countries, to stop PKK’s
financial income that also helps the PKK terrorists in Northern Iraq
to launch offensives mainly in Turkey’s southeast regions.

The US efforts to persuade the European countries to halt PKK
activities in Europe is part of a strategy to display to Ankara that
Washington has been doing its best against the PKK, and that Ankara
should not take any unilateral action by invading Northern Iraq to
bomb the PKK camps.

But it is expected that a limited Turkish military operation
into Northern Iraq – most possibly in late March – to render PKK
ineffective, in coordination with the US, will be amongst the topics
discussed between Buyukanýt and US officials.

A possible cross-border operation coordinated with the US is high
on both the Turkish military and civilian agenda – even as it is
understood by both that such an operation would not end the PKK
problem as long as the root political, cultural and social problems
of Turkey’s approximately 12 million Kurds were not resolved.

But the government, which has entered into an election period of
both Presidential and national elections, along withthe military has
heightened the Turkish public expectations of such a cross border
operation.

Iraq’s disintegration concerns the Turkish military …

Several Turkish journalists left for the US to cover Buyukanýt’s
visit to the US, and the Turkish military promised them that Buyukanýt
would brief them about his contacts with the US officials.

Media interest in his US visit also underlines, among other things,
the growing Turkish military weight being felt in the US as the
direct military to military contacts have intensified following a
serious set back in relations between Turkey and the USA when the
Turkish Parliament rejected on March 1, 2003 allowing the US forces
based in Turkey to open a second front for the US invasion of Iraq.

Buyukanýt is also expected to raise during his talks with the
US officials, the Turkish military’s concern over the possible
disintegration of Iraq, in particular if US led coalition forces decide
to withdraw. According to Buyukanýt, a US-led coalition withdrawal
from Iraq would further destabilize the whole Middle East region.

–Boundary_(ID_cTe8/KsAI63CHXMKtvNAPg)–

TURKISH MINISTER SAYS SOME USING CYPRUS PROBLEM TO HAMPER TURKEY’S EU PROCESS

Anatolia News Agency, Turkey
Feb 9 2007

Text of report in English by Turkish news agency Anatolia

New York, 9 February: "Annan Plan is the plan of the UN and it was
supported by UN Security Council, as well as the EU," said Turkish
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who took the floor at think tank
organization Council of Foreign Relations in New York on Friday
[9 February].

"If Greek Cypriots had accepted the plan, today there would not be
Turkish soldiers in the island," he added.

Upon a question about Cyprus within the scope of Turkey-EU relations,
Gul said, "Some EU countries are using Cyprus problem as an excuse
artificially during Turkey’s EU negotiation process." He recalled
that Turkish Cypriots – by accepting Annan Plan – proved their good
will but Greek Cypriots voted against the plan.

Gul said that Greek Cypriot administration joined EU in a way against
valid agreements and principles in the island. "Greek Cypriots carried
Cyprus problem to the EU," he stressed.

Gul said, "There are two separate societies, religions and democracy
in the island. We support a comprehensive solution for the Cyprus
question."

Article 301 and Hrant Dink

Upon a question about murder of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink and
whether Article 301 of Turkish Penal Code (TCK) will be lifted,
Gul said, "We have wanted to amend Article 301 for a long time.

Government had launched initiatives a long time before murder of
Dink. These activities are still continuing. I want this article to
be amended because it overshadows our reform process."

Noting that other countries – just because of this article – think that
there is no freedom of expression in Turkey and people are imprisoned
because of their thoughts, Gul said that Turkey does not deserve such
an image and it wants to change this.

"In fact, Turkey took this article from laws of EU countries but we
had some difficulties while implementing the article," he added.

GUL REFERS TO HISTORY IN KIRKUK REFERENDUM DEBATE

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 10 2007

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, on a visit to the United States,
repeated Turkish concerns over the status of Iraq’s oil-rich Kirkuk,
and recalling that Turkey had agreed to give the disputed city to
Iraq as a unified country in 1926, said it should remain a multiethnic
Iraqi city.

"In 1926, we gave Mosul to one Iraq. Now, we want to see one Iraq,"
Gul said in a speech at the German Marshall Fund in Washington on
Thursday. He was referring to a deal in 1926 in which Turkey agreed to
recede from its demands on the province of Mosul, which then covered
several northern Iraqi cities including Kirkuk. For centuries, Mosul
was ruled by the Ottoman Empire before it was invaded by British troops
during the First World War. "This one city, this important city does
not belong to one group," Gul said. "There are no borders within Iraq."

Gul met with senior US administration officials including Vice
President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during
his week-long visit, brought up with them the Turkish nervousness
over a planned referendum on status of Kirkuk which is slated for
the end of 2007. US support for the Turkish demands to get the
referendum postponed was one of the main objectives of Gul’s visit,
but US officials were hardly receptive to the Turkish requests,
saying that although they understand Turkey’s concerns, it is for
the Iraqis to decide whether to go ahead with the planned referendum.

Ankara argues the referendum would do nothing but open the way for
Kurdish rule over Kirkuk, given that Kurds have flocked to the city in
great numbers over the past years to alter the demographic composition
ahead of the vote and calls for a postponement of the vote.

In an interview with the Washington Post, Gul warned that the
referendum on the status of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk should be canceled
or else the outcome might widen the sectarian violence that has so
far largely left the northern part of Iraq untouched.

"If Kirkuk is included in one region that would be a big mistake"
Gul told the Washington Post. "Some people want to escape from a
bad situation, but they should not fall into a worse situation." A
partition of Iraq, he said, "would be the worst situation."

Turkish officials have said they will not rule out military
intervention amid growing tensions among ethnic Turkmen, Arabs and
Kurds in the oil-rich region around Kirkuk. Kurdish leaders want
to annex the city, which lies just south of the autonomous Kurdish
region stretching across Iraq’s northeast.

Passage of the ‘genocide’ resolution would be an insult to Turks
Gul also sought to win the support of the US administration against
a resolution in the House of Representatives which urges recognition
of the alleged genocide of Armenians at the hands of the late Ottoman
Empire.

"If it passed, there will be a real shock in Turkey" and the Turkish
government would not be able to prevent popular demands to stop
co-operation with the United States, Gul said in an interview with
the Washington Post.

Speaking in the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Gul said
the Turkish nation would take it as an "insult" if the resolution,
which was recently introduced in the House of Representatives, is
passed. "Do you think the people in Turkey will understand when their
boys are in Afghanistan and are together with your troops?" he said
referring to the 800 Turkish troops operating in Afghanistan under
NATO command.

Nancy Pelosi, who chairs the House of Representatives and who is
expected to support the resolution, declined to meet Gul, citing her
busy schedule. The administration says it will work to stop passage
of the resolution.

‘Visit not a success’ In addition to the Kirkuk referendum and the
"genocide" resolution, Gul also tried to win a firm commitment from
the US administration to act against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK) in Iraq.

Commenting on the visit, the Financial Times said Gul had failed
to make significant progress on these objectives in Washington,
adding that Turkey’s relations with the US are set to worsen after
the visit. The newspaper said disagreements on Iraq and the "genocide"
resolution threatened to intensify anti-American sentiment in Turkey,
while raising concerns in the US about a possible Turkish military
intervention in northern Iraq.

Hürriyet, Turkey
Feb 9 2007

In Washington DC, FM Gul pushes against Armenian claims

With Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul on an official visit to the US
capital Washington, DC, the Armenian claims of genocide have shaped
the course of diplomacy efforts over the past days for the Turkish
delegation.

Speaking to the Hurriyet, a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said "We
have explained to everyone here how much sensitivity this matter
holds for the Turkish people. The US administration understands the
importance of the situation. We had done our best in the Congress."
The same source reasserted assurances which have emerged over the
past weeks that, as the Armenian Genocide bill proceeds further in
the Congress, it is expected that US President George W. Bush will
intercede to try and stop it. It has also been reported that US State
Department officials have prepared a letter to be given to Congress
members, and that an additional section of the letter addresses the
matter "Why Turkey is important."

The same source said to the Hurriyet: "We will continue to speak
about this at every level. We have not behaved as though this bill is
a threat. However, it is a truth that on many levels, Turkey has
helped the US. We have underlined this. Our dual relations are too
important to be toyed with by the narrow elections calculations of a
few Congress members…."

Religious Intelligence Ltd, UK
Feb 9 2007

Concerns grow over Turkey rights
Friday, 9th February 2007. 3:06pm

By: Matthew Cresswell.

TWO TURKISH Christians are facing trial in Istanbul for `insulting’
their nationality and reviling Islam.

Meanwhile heightened security surrounds Silivri where the trial is
unfolding in light of the recent assination of Turkish Christian
journalist Hrant Dink – murdered in Istanbul by a teenage
nationalist.

The two men, Hakan Tastan and Turan Topal, are facing criminal
charges for insulting their Turkish identity under the nation’s
Article 301. Heading up the team of opposition lawyers was
ultranationalist attornet Kemal Kerincsiz – known for hounding Dink
who spoke against the government’s silencing of the 1915 Armenian
genocide.

Both converts from Islam, Tastan and Topal are also being accused of
reviling Islam, under Article 216, and for compiling private data on
Turkish citizens for a correspondence course, Article 135.

One accuser was Fatih Kose, aged 23, who gave an account of when he
had allegedly heard `illegal’ statements from the two defendants. But
defence lawyer Haydar Polat told Compass News his testimony was very
`contradictory’, which angered the judge hearing the case.

It was also unclear as to why the other two accusers, two teenage
boys, were unable to testify.

The court was told that they had not received permission from school,
but this was questionable as Turkey’s schools were currently on
vacation. The next hearing will be on April 18.

TO BECOME A CITIZEN OF ARMENIA FIRST OF ALL IT IS NECESSARY TO SWEAR AN OATH

Panorama.am
20:07 07/02/2007

Every person, who has become 18 years old and able to function, if
he has permanently lived in Armenia for the last 3 years, as well
as can explain in Armenia and knows the Constitution of our country,
may apply for getting passport of the Republic of Armenia.

The bill "On making amendments to the RA Law "On RA citizenship"
envisages such a provision, which was presented in the parliament
today by Minister of Justice David Haroutyunyan.

According to the bill, the person, who is married to RA citizen or has
got a child, who is Armenian citizen, or the person, who is an Armenian
by origin, has got Armenian ancestry, may become Armenian citizen.

Besides, the people, who have rendered exclusive services to our
country, also may get Armenian passport, nevertheless, the dual
citizen for our country is "recognized only as a citizen of the
Republic of Armenia".

In the words of D. Haroutyunuan, the person may also become an Armenian
citizen, if he has abandoned the RA citizenship by his application
after the Jan 1, 1995, when the prohibityion of dual citizenship came
into force.

"Of course the vast part of these people are Armenians and only few
people that are not Armenians by nationality, but they have been a
citizen of the Republic of Armenia before 1995", the minister said in
response to the proposal of NA Speaker, Tigran Torosyan, to withdraw
this provision from the bill.

It should be noted that the application for getting the citizenship
of our country may be rejected in the case, if by its activities
the person harms the state and public security, public order, public
health, the rights and freedoms of others, their honor and good fame.

By the way, the rejection of the application may not be grounded. And
the person, who is getting Armenian passport, swears an oath to be
faithful to the Republic of Armenia, to keep the Constitution and
the laws, to protect the independence and territorial integrity,
pledges himself to respect the official language, national culture
and traditions.