Author: Tatoyan Vazgen

Asia Times
By Kaveh Afrasaiabi
Cooperation pact will put Iran firmly on China's Belt and Road
Initiative and promises to change the region's strategic calculus
In recent weeks, Iran and China have been hammering out the details of
a potentially momentous cooperation deal meant to span the next
quarter-century and chart a future decoupled from the United States.
Under the terms of a draft viewed by Asia Times, China will invest
tens of billions of US dollars in Iran as part of Beijing’s ambitious
Road and Belt Initiative. The 25-year agreement includes economic,
security, and military dimensions.
Such a deal is particularly important for Iran’s ailing energy sector,
which is in dire need of substantial investment to refurbish an aging
oil industry, which requires upwards of $150 billion for much-needed
modernization of wells, refineries and other infrastructure.
The negotiations are ongoing, even as the Donald Trump administration
continues to pin hope on Iran’s economic strangulation by a unilateral
maximum pressure strategy and against the backdrop of growing US-China
rivalry.
If approved by the Iranian parliament, the plan represents a major
affront to the Trump administration’s relentless pursuit of Iran’s
economic isolation in the international community. As expected, news
of the China-Iran agreement has set off a chorus of condemnation in
the West.
Some Iranian opponents in exile have branded the plan as the Islamic
Republic’s “sellout” to China and view it as a testament to China’s
ability to transform Iran into one of its “satellites.” Critics have
falsely claimed the plan contains a “monopoly clause”, most
controversially granting China control over one of Iran’s Persian Gulf
islands.
Reputed leaked versions of the agreement, clearly aimed to undercut
the deal, have been published in Farsi and in English and claim to
include provisions that could be perceived as harmful to Iran at
China’s expense.
Should China undertake such a massive long-term investment in Iran, it
is very likely that Beijing will take over the strategic Iranian port
of Chahbahar — the country’s outlet to the Indian Ocean.
The port enjoys a waiver from US sanctions imposed on Iran, which was
granted as a nod to India’s ambitions for the port. In Tehran’s view,
New Delhi has squandered that opportunity by effectively siding with
the US on oil sanctions and failing to make adequate investments in
the port.
The new Iran-China agreement points to both nations’ changing
strategic calculus in the current international milieu, where
international norms and principles have been eroded largely by the
Trump administration’s unilateral and aggressive policies vis-a-vis
Tehran and Beijing.
Slowly but surely, a triumvirate of China, Iran and neighboring
Pakistan is forming. This alliance could also encompass Afghanistan
and over time is expected to add Iraq and Syria, strategic anathema to
Washington and New Delhi.
A complementary new agreement between Iran and Syria, praised by
President Bashar al-Assad, signifies Iran’s intent to retain its
strategic foothold in that war-torn country, both as a gateway to
Lebanon and the Arab world and deterrent to Israel. That has come
irrespective of Israeli-Gulf Arab pressures, including recent attacks
inside Iran.
Much like responding to “maximum pressure” with “maximum resistance,”
Iran traditionally exerts counter-pressure to any regional and or
extra-regional pressure.
Tehran understands itself to be as a pivotal power in West Asia and
the Middle East, and can be expected to retaliate against the culprits
behind recent attacks on Natanz nuclear facility and the Parchin
military complex at a time and place of its choosing.
A final China-Iran deal would be a win-win serving the national
interests of both sides.
For sanctions and pandemic-hit Iran, it will offer important leeway to
economically survive at a difficult juncture, when Iran’s military and
nuclear sites are targeted for destruction, likely by a concerted
effort involving Israel and some Arab Gulf states.
According to a Tehran-based political scientist who wishes to remain
anonymous, “the purpose of these attacks on Iran might be related to
the perception that the Trump administration is willing to strike a
deal with Iran in the next few months prior to the November
elections.”
In turn, this raises questions about Trump’s real Iran strategy,
notwithstanding the major recent setback for the US at the UN Security
Council, which flatly rejected a draft US resolution on Iran calling
for an indefinite arms embargo.
Moreover, a UN expert denounced the US drone killing in January of
Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani and nine other Iranian and Iraqi
officials as ” unlawful and arbitrary under international law.”
According to the UN report, the drone attack violated Iraq’s
sovereignty and in turn has “institutionalized” Iranian hostility
toward the US, making it nearly impossible for any Iranian official to
engage in direct diplomacy with the Trump administration. That’s
particularly true since Iran’s new parliament led by hardliners
commenced its work.
President Hassan Rouhani’s moderate government is about to enter a
lame-duck period prior to the presidential elections in 2021, making
it less and less capable of any major foreign policy initiatives.
Some analysts in Iran contend that there is still a narrow window of
opportunity for a new Tehran-Washington deal, prompted partly as a
reaction to the amentioned Tehran-Beijing agreement.
Given Iran’s post-revolutionary position of “superpower equidistance,”
the agreement with China reflects a “new look East” approach by Tehran
while under Washington’s pressure. At the same time, it serves the
opposite logic of a “new look West” for the sake of navigating the
treacherous currents of a new cold war in favor of equilibrium.
That assumes, of course, that Washington is willing to ease its
persistent sanctions and threats. That remains to be seen. Meanwhile,
the recent spate of suspicious fires and sabotage at the Natanz
nuclear facility and Parchin military complex will embolden Iran’s
hardliners, who see no ground for optimism of a possible US policy
shift.
They see China’s steadfast defense of Iran at the UN Security Council
as a testament to Beijing’s reliability. Iranian hardliners are also
cognizant of their country’s ability to serve China’s BRI, not only
for the 80 million-strong Iranian market but the larger Eurasian
landmass encompassing some 4.6 billion people.
 

                                        Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Pashinian Concerned By Armenia’s Coronavirus Crisis
        • Naira Nalbandian
Armenia -- A healthcare worker in protective gear tends to a COVID-19 patient at 
the Surp Grigor Lusavorich Medical Center, Yerevan, June 5, 2020.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said on Wednesday that the novel coronavirus is 
continuing to spread in Armenia despite his government’s efforts to get people 
to follow its anti-epidemic rules.
Pashinian reported a nearly 30 percent year-on-year surge in the total number of 
deaths registered in the country in June.
“Of course changes in these mortality statistics are not fully connected with 
the coronavirus, but the coronavirus situation definitely has a significant 
impact on them,” he told a daily news briefing in Yerevan.
The Armenian Ministry of Health reported earlier in the day that 10 more people 
died from COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, bringing the official death toll to 453.
The figure does not include the deaths of 149 other people who were also 
infected with the virus. The ministry says that these deaths were primarily 
caused by other, pre-existing diseases.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country of about 3 million rose 
by 523 to 26,065. Ministry data shows that almost 29 percent of coronavirus 
tests carried out on Tuesday came back positive.
“Unfortunately, we are still not succeeding in achieving our main strategic goal 
in the fight against the coronavirus epidemic,” said Pashinian. “Our main 
strategic goal is to learn to live with the coronavirus.”
The prime minister again complained that many Armenians still do not practice 
social distancing or wear face masks in public areas despite his and other 
officials’ persistent appeals. He said that on Tuesday alone police fined almost 
2,700 citizens for not complying with these requirements.
Armenia -- Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian at a news conference in Yerevan, July 
1, 2020.
Opposition politicians and other critics of Pashinian blame his government for 
the continuing coronavirus crisis. Some of them say that the government never 
properly enforced a nationwide lockdown imposed in late March and lifted it too 
soon.
Pashinian indicated his continuing opposition to renewed lockdown restrictions 
in the country. “We are continuing to put the emphasis on changing the personal 
behavior of each of us because this is how we are going to overcome the 
coronavirus epidemic with minimum economic losses,” he said.
Meanwhile, the European Union and the World Health Organization (WHO) donated 
10,000 test kits to Armenia on Wednesday. In a joint statement, they said that 
the donation “will allow wider testing for COVID-19 across the country free of 
charge.”
The Armenian health authorities carry out an average of over 2,000 coronavirus 
tests on a daily basis. They are expected to start using soon coronavirus tests 
manufactured by the Yerevan-based Institute of Molecular Biology.
The director of the state-run institute, Arsen Arakelian, announced that it will 
produce at least 2,000 tests a day. Armenia will not have to import them 
anymore, he said.
Armenia's Central Bank Sees Economy Contracting 4% In 2020
Armenia - Workers at a commercial greenhouse in Ararat province, 19Apr2017.
(Reuters) - Armenia’s economy will contract by 4 percent in 2020 due to the 
negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic, but is expected to recover and grow 
5.5 percent next year, Martin Galstian, the country’s Central Bank head, said on 
Tuesday.
The Central Bank had previously forecast a contraction of 0.7 percent this year 
after growth of 7.6 percent in 2019. The worst-affected sectors of the economy 
are services and construction as well as international tourism, Galstian said 
while presenting the bank’s quarterly inflation report.
Inflation is expected to be around 1.9 percent in 2020. Armenia’s consumer price 
index declined 0.1 percent in May month-on-month, but rose 1.2 percent 
year-on-year.
In the report, the bank said the amount of private remittances would decline by 
22-25 percent this year due to the drop in oil prices in Russia, Armenia’s main 
trade partner, and Moscow’s ban on migrant workers during the pandemic.
However, it said that would not have a significant impact on GDP.
The Central Bank cut its key refinancing rate to 4.5 percent from 5 percent last 
month, citing weakening external and internal demand as well as a slow pace of 
recovery.
The country of around 3 million people had reported 25,542 cases of the 
coronavirus as of Tuesday, and 443 deaths. It is the worst-affected country in 
the South Caucasus region.
Armenian President Objects To Property Tax Hikes
Armenia -- President Armen Sarkissian addresses an international online seminar 
on the coronavirus pandemic, Yerevan, June 24, 2020.
President Armen Sarkissian has voiced serious objections to a government bill 
that will sharply increase property taxes in Armenia while agreeing to sign it 
into law.
In a statement released late on Tuesday, the presidential press office said 
Sarkissian believes the bill passed by the Armenian parliament last week is 
“untimely” given the continuing coronavirus crisis in the country and its dire 
socioeconomic consequences.
“Even if the law is not going to be immediately enforced [in full,] the 
moral-psychological consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and resulting 
financial and economic problems will be felt for a long time,” it said.
The statement added that Sarkissian signed the bill only because it does not 
seem to contradict the Armenian constitution. It noted that “unfortunately” the 
constitution does not allow the largely ceremonial head of state to veto bills 
or send them back to the National Assembly for further discussion.
The two parliamentary opposition parties as well as other critics of the 
Armenian government have also spoken out against property tax hikes, saying that 
they will put a heavy financial burden on low-income families.
The government and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s My Step bloc dismiss the 
criticism. They say that the measure will lead to a more fair income 
distribution and significantly boost local community budgets.
Government officials have also argued that proceeds from the property tax are 
currently equivalent to just 0.2 percent of Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product, 
compared with 1.1 percent in neighboring Georgia and 1.2 percent in Russia.
The controversial bill will gradually introduce a complex progressive scale of 
property taxation over the next four years. For example, the owners of small 
apartments worth an estimated 23 million drams ($48,000) will pay 18,000 drams, 
while ownership of larger properties that cost 58 million drams will translate 
into 108,000 drams ($224) in annual taxes.
Tax authorities will levy at least 326,000 drams from apartments worth 100 
million drams or more. The owners of large and expensive houses will have to pay 
even more.
The expensive properties include Soviet-built apartments located in the center 
of Yerevan. Many of their owners inherited them from their parents and are not 
necessarily affluent. Critics say that they will be hit hardest by the higher 
taxes and could even be forced to sell their homes. Some of these homeowners 
circulated late last week a petition urging the government to reconsider the 
measure.
Japan Donates Medical Equipment To Armenia
Japan -- Ambulance workers in protective gear prepare to transfer coronavirus 
patients from the cruise ship Diamond Princess at in Yokohama, February 12, 2020.
Armenia has received a $3.7 million grant from Japan to buy sophisticated 
medical equipment that could be used in its fight against the coronavirus.
An agreement on the release of the Japanese government grant was signed on 
Tuesday by Armenian Finance Minister Atom Janjughazian and Japan’s Ambassador to 
Armenia Jun Yamada.
The Armenian Finance Ministry said the money will be spent on the purchase of 
Japanese-made magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines and other medical 
equipment. It said some of that equipment will be installed in four ambulance 
vehicles catering for residents of the country’s remote communities.
“This project aims to assist Armenia in its fight against the COVID-19 epidemic 
by strengthening its mid- to long-term healthcare and medical system,” read a 
statement released by the Japanese Embassy in Yerevan.
“I sincerely hope that the new equipment from Japan will contribute to 
significantly upgrading the capacity of healthcare and medical institutions in 
the country,” it quoted Yamada as saying.
Health Minister Arsen Torosian thanked the Japanese government for the donation, 
according to the statement.
Since the start of the coronavirus epidemic, Armenia has also received medical 
equipment and other supplies from the United States, the European Union, Russia 
and China.
U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy told RFE/RL’s Armenian service on June 4 that 
Washington has allocated $5.4 million in fresh coronavirus-related aid to 
Armenia. She said much of that aid will be channeled into Armenian laboratories 
and healthcare services dealing with “the most severe cases” of COVID-19.
Japan is also the main foreign donor of the Armenian Rescue Service (ARS), 
having provided it with several dozen fire engines and other firefighting 
equipment, worth a combined $22 million, over the past decade.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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