US Global Strategy In Georgia

US GLOBAL STRATEGY IN GEORGIA
by Axin Arbili

OpEdNews
US-Global-Strategy-in-Geor-by-Axin-Arbili-080821-8 89.html
Aug 21 2008
PA

Russia attacked Georgia; Georgia is under Russian occupation; Georgia
is a democracy, Russia isn’t; Georgia is small and peaceful, Russia is
big, aggressive, guilty; Russia is the old Soviet Union threatening its
neighbours, violating international law, annexing countries; Russia
is imperialistic; Georgia is innocent and a victim, etc etc. That’s
basically what the US government and corporate-controlled media
are telling us and the whole world, that’s what they want us all
to believe. Russia is told to respect the "territorial integrity"
of Georgia and to stop its aggressions while Georgia is continuously
assured of Western assistance. Washington , London , Paris , Berlin
are competing with each other in condemning Russia and in showing their
solidarity with the Georgian president Saakashvili. Press conferences
are held in Tbilisi on a frequent basis with heads of Western states,
with French and German ministers, and soon also again with Secretary
of State, Dr. Rice, to repeat the message: Georgia is an innocent
democracy under attack and occupation that needs to be supported;
that Russia is the imperial aggressor.

Western support for Georgia and Western condemnation of Russia has now
become unconditional. Never mind the facts on the ground; never mind
the fact that it was Georgia that started the military aggression to
reconquer South Ossetia; never mind the thousands of civilians killed
by Georgian military, the bombardments of Ossetian villages and its
capital, Tskhinvali. Never mind the fact that Ossetians and Abkhasians
are distinct nations that do not want to be part of Georgia; just
ignore the fact that they seek independence and their own states,
as demonstrated in several referendums, that self-determination
has been their wish for decades if not centuries. Consequently,
during his news meeting on Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de
Hoop Scheffer made no reference to these essential questions, rather
he reaffirmed the West’s position by telling Russia what to do and
threatening actions if it didn’t. How strange that for a military
organisation the most important question is irrelevant and omitted:
Who started the aggression, who is the aggressor? Instead, NATO
membership-promise to Georgia is reiterated. When it comes to its
geostrategic interests, questions of right or wrong are meaningless
to the West. In this conflict, the US demonstrates once again the
unchanging characteristics of its foreign policy, namely hypocrisy,
double standards, distortions, and deceptions.

Facts are inconvenient for the West if they don’t support Western
interests, so they must be swept aside with lots of media and political
manipulations. But there are major Western interests in Georgia and
in the Caucasus that cannot be concealed easily. To understand and
predict US/Western foreign policy, just look where the oil and gas
reserves of the world are located and the routes of transport to the
West. Georgia is in the focus of Western attention and support due to
a major oil pipeline, the BTC pipeline (initials for the cities Baku ,
Tblisi, and Ceyhan), which runs through Georgia . It is carrying oil
from the Caspian Sea to Europe , and it is of vital importance for
the West in terms of energy supply and security.

The aim of US foreign policy is and has always been primarily to
control energy resources and routes by all means, at all costs. That
meant historically to go to war against any nation that challenged
US objectives, to conquer and occupy their countries; and to
set up puppet regimes in the regions that would follow US/western
instructions. Most of the Middle East consists of such client states,
which have been obedient for decades ( Saudi Arabia , Pakistan ,
Iraq , Egypt , Turkey , etc). None of these countries is democratic,
but that is of no concern to the USA/EU/NATO – as long as they stay
firmly on the path shown to them. If there is no such country in
the region to make use of, it is right and convenient for the US to
simply create one. For a recent example, see the Serbian territory
of Kosova . Despite the legal, historical, moral rights of Serbs on
their ancient land, there was no talk of the "territorial integrity"
of Serbia; rather it was decided to give Albanians a second state in
which US military and material interests in the Balkans could be firmly
founded; and the largest military base outside the USA could be built.

The other two transit countries of the BTC pipeline are Azerbaijan
and Turkey . The latter already has the American client-state-status,
and work is now fully underway to secure both Azerbaijan ‘s and Georgia
‘s inclusion into US-led Western control and exploitation system. Part
of Western "democracy promotion and strengthening" are US military
bases in these regions, training and equipping the local armies, and
other economic aid that will facilitate to establish a functioning
client state useful for US/Western geostrategic and energy interests.

These client states not only get military and economic aids in
return, but their national self-appraisal, interests or aspirations,
too, are accepted, promoted, and encouraged. It doesn’t matter if
these views are exaggerated, delusional, egomaniac, undemocratic,
intolerant, immoral, inhumane, undemocratic, militaristic, criminal
or just plain fascist as long as they don’t threaten the strategic
arrangements. Take Turkey for example. That state is based on a
nationalistic state ideology and racial philosophy originating from
20th century European racism. Contrary to propaganda, Turkey is
not a democracy but a military dictatorship where the generals have
control over the parliament, government, and judiciary. According to
the Turkish Weltanschauung, there are no other peoples than the Turks
in Turkey , and thus 40 million Kurds, ancient inhabitants of Media,
Anatolia and Kurdistan , simply do not exist officially. Greeks,
Assyrians, and Armenians were previously decimated, expelled, or
exterminated by the Turks, crimes which are still not recognized
by the Turkish state. There are no Kurdish rights as an ethnically
distinct population; there is no Kurdish language, no Kurdish schools,
universities, no Kurdish names for Kurdish-born children or for the
Kurdish villages, town, cities, and the Kurdish landscape. All of that
is prohibited by the fascist Turkish state. In fact, in Turkey there
are more animal rights than Kurdish rights. Any Kurdish resistance
against this injustice and crime has been declared terrorism and
punished mercilessly and systematically. In the last 25 years only,
more than 4,000 Kurdish villages have been eradicated, millions of
Kurds displaced, thousands of extra-judicial murders carried out with
no consequence for the perpetrators whatsoever. In February of this
year, the Turkish army invaded "northern Iraq " and since then, it is
flying raids against Kurds who do not accept the Turkish fascism and
occupation of Kurdistan . Where was the Western outcry and condemnation
of Turkey then? There was and is none. The genocide against the Kurds
by Turks has been and is being carried out in the eyes of the whole
world without any protest or action. In fact, Turkey is receiving
weapons and intelligence assistance from the USA as part of their
grand strategic deal. Turkey can carry out its terror and murderous
campaigns against the Kurds because it is part of the American
client/slave-system in the region, and because the Kurds aren’t.

Other examples of US-style democratisation efforts could be
given. Right now the business of democracy is focused in Georgia . As
usual, it starts off militarily. Up to a 1,000 US military advisers
were dispatched to instruct the Georgian army how to implement
tactics and handle German and US-made weapons. Now they are all
suddenly very surprised that the Georgians are making use of their
newly acquired knowledge. But they shouldn’t deceive themselves or try
to deceive others. Just a couple of days before the Georgian military
invaded South Ossetia, Secretary of State Rice on her visit to Tbilisi
reassured the Georgian president that the US would always support their
"friends". It is to be seen how far that support will go. But judging
from their actions and words, there is no change of US foreign policy
doctrines and objectives: Whatever is necessary to secure the energy
sources and expand control of remaining ones – it will be done. As
de facto global empire – claiming ownership to space even -, the
US acts without moral or legal principles. In fact, it sees it as
the exclusive right of the Western "civilisation" to decide what is
legal and what not, what is moral and what not. Furthermore, there
is no free choice in the US global empire as democracy and freedom
outside of US control is regarded as threat to its strategic master
plan, and every action or position unfavourable to US interests is
severely punished by Washington, with threats, sanctions, embargo,
proxy wars, bombing, invasion, occupation, etc.

The Balkans were the starting point of the First World War that aimed
at destroying Russia . WWII and the cold war had the same aim. Today
the conflict in the Caucasus may lead to a third global war as the
West, once again, targets Russia as the major threat to its world
dominion.

I’m Kurdish, and thus I don’t have a place to call my homeland. My
ancient country, Kurdistan, has been under occupation for centuries by
barbaric forces. They are against a free Kurdistan, against free Kurds,
against freedom and democracy. The West supports them and the brutal
status quo. They set up most of the local regimes as puppets, trained
and equipped their armies to maintain the status quo: Exploitation
and control of the energy resources. They don’t want a change of
this status quo of terror and injustice, they don’t want freedom,
democracy, justice for the region. I want to inform the public about
the injustices done to my people and my country with real and relevant
information, by serving truth – something the elite and corporate
controlled media of the West will never do.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/

Opposition papers not to be published due to lack of newsprint

Haykakan Zhamanak, Armenia
Aug 15 2008

Armenian opposition papers not to be published due to lack of
newsprint

Two Armenian opposition dailies, Haykakan Zhamanak and Chorrord
Ishkhanutyun, will not be published on 16 August and 19 August,
because of the lack of newsprint, Haykakan Zhamanak reported on 15
August.

The publishing house has problems with the delivery of newsprint, the
paper said. It added that it planned to save the available stock of
newsprint until the problem was settled. Haykakan Zhamanak said that
it would resume publishing on 20 August.

Chorrord Ishkhanutyun said on 15 August that there were some
difficulties with the import of newsprint due to the recent
developments in Georgia.

Economist: The dangers of the safe route; Caucasian pipelines

The Economist
August 16, 2008
U.S. Edition

The dangers of the safe route; Caucasian pipelines

How conflicts in the Caucasus affect Western oil

Georgia?s pipelines to the West weren?t bombed but they remain
vulnerable

IT?S not just the Russian-Georgian conflict that has made August such
a rotten month for the West?s favourite oil pipeline. On August 5th a
pumping station on the 1,100-mile (1,760km) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline in eastern Turkey was set ablaze. The PKK Kurdish separatists
claimed responsibility. The entire route, which had been carrying
850,000 barrels of Caspian crude oil a day to Western markets, shut
down and world oil prices, which had been falling, nudged up
again. BP, which spent $4 billion on BTC and still manages it, put a
brave face on things, saying that the disruption would be
temporary. But the station was still burning when Georgia and Russia
went to war two days later.

The company?s other oil pipeline, Baku-Supsa, carrying crude to
Georgia?s Black Sea coast (now blockaded by Russian warships), had
only recently re-opened but was also forced to shut down. On August
12th, even as the conflict was fading, BP stopped putting gas into the
Baku-Erzurum gas pipeline. The only pipeline from Azerbaijan that was
fully operational this week is the one running through Russian soil to
the port of Novorossiisk.

For the past decade Georgia has been championed as a reliable country
through which new pipelines, safely controlled by Western companies,
could bypass both Russia and Iran. On the face of it, the past week
has made a mockery of that claim. But not completely. Georgia will
point out that its energy infrastructure survived the war unscathed:
no pipeline was bombed. Russia, mindful of the need for good relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey, has been careful to point out that this
was not an oil war.

Yet the crisis’including the dangerously unresolved dispute between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabakh’raises wider issues. South
Caucasus is supposed to be the location for the next generation of
so-called "fourth corridor" projects, by means of which Western
strategists dream of ending Europe?s dependence on Russian gas and
getting Caspian gas to European markets.

The jewel in this scheme, the Nabucco pipeline’designed to ship
Caspian gas to Europe in 2013’is already in trouble for lack of
unequivocal European support, a rival Russian scheme called South
Stream and the fact that there is no major Western energy company
based upstream in Turkmenistan to lobby for the deal. One of the first
foreign-policy initiatives by Russia?s president, Dmitry Medvedev, was
to court Azerbaijani and Turkmen leaders in order to persuade them to
sell their gas to his country. With an eye on events in Georgia, they
must now decide how to respond to his friendly advice.

Yerevan: Regional problems needed to be solved by regional states

Yerevan: Regional problems needed to be solved by regional states

Tehran, Aug 17, IRNA
Iran-Armenia-Movsisyan

Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsisyan said here Sunday that regional
problems should be solved by regional states themselves.

Movsisiyan, telling Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that
Tehran-Yerevan ties serve both sides’ interests, hailed Iran as a
country with an `undeniable’ role in regional arrangements.

He hoped that during upcoming visit of Armenian foreign minister to
Tehran, Iran and Armenia will strive to work out a mechanism for
drawing necessary strategies for more consultations between Iran and
the Caucasus states.

Mottaki said Caucasus is a region of high significance and Iran and
Armenia can in cooperation with other regional states reach a formula
for restoration of peace and stability there.

He said holding meetings to pool regional states’ views in connection
with regional issues will be helpful.

Baku:Sokor: Conflict resolution not possible if it depends on Russia

Today.Az, Azerbaijan

Vladimir Sokor: "Conflict resolution will never be possible, if it
depends on Russia. There will only be an official or unofficial
annexation of the territory to Russia"

16 August 2008 [12:10] – Today.Az

Day.Az interview with Vladimir Sokor, US political scientist, senior
research officer of Jamestown’s Foundation (US).

– Separate leaders of the western countries start to toughen their
criticism of Russia for the military aggression against Georgia. Can
any means of pressure on Moscow be applied in this case and how can it
occur?

– It is a difficult question as the West lacks economic means of
pressure on Moscow. Russia has an advantage for the first time in its
history. This has never occurred in the Russian history. West’s
economic means are now too limited.

This means that resistance should be conducted on the political
level. For example, the European Union should stop talks with Russia
on strategic partnership and non-visa regime.

Moreover, NATO members and even countries, which want to join this
organization, should change their priorities and focus on the defense
of the national territory against Russian aggression.

The best divisions of the Georgian army, which were in Iraq and fought
on the US side, did not participate in the defense of their own
country. Moreover, under US recommendations, most countries created
military divisions for participating in the peacekeeping activity or
anti-terror operation beyond their own borders , including in Iraq,
Afghanistan and the Balkans. But it turned out that the defense of
one’s own country should be the primary thing.

– Which conclusions should Azerbaijan draw from the events in South
Ossetia?

– The first conclusion for Azerbaijan is that Washington today remains
even a greater strategic partner and ally for Baku. Certainly, the
United States should perceive it correctly. The United States, which
reacted to the events in Georgia so late and passively, should realize
that the main geopolitical game today is for the Black Sea and Caspian
regions.

Russia has undertaken this operation in Georgia, realizing that there
is no rival to its policy in the Caucasus, as the United States is
busy in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as with the Iran problem. These
three conflicts weaken the United States.

Washington has chosen wrong priorities. I think in fact, the leaders
of all the countries, locating between the eastern borders of the
European Union and NATO and the Caspian Sea, should tell the United
States that the priority it has chosen are erroneous and that the
destiny of the Euroatlantic community, US strategic position in the
world and stability of the North Atlantic alliance depends on its
policy in this area. Here the correlation of powers in the modern
world will be defined. Independence and security of these countries
and export of energy sources via these countries from the Caspian
basin to Europe should become the main priorities of the US
policy. Yet this understanding is now weak or completely absent in
Washington.

– Can the Russian peacekeeping mission be spoken of following the
events in Georgia, especially in the resolution of the conflicts in
the South Caucasus?

– By the events in Georgia, Russia has made a sort of a revolution in
the issue of peacekeeping. It showed the ability to hold military
actions of any scale and in any place under pretense of peacekeeping.

The peacekeeping mission of Russia has always been an absolute
lie. Russia participated in the very beginning of conflicts in
Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan as a party and held these wars. Russia
and Armenia are the direct initiators and the participants of war in
Karabakh.

Thus, to speak of the Russian peacekeeping and Russia’s role as a
mediator in the conflict resolution is merely ridiculous, which is
proven by the experience of the last 15 years.

– Does it mean that the conflicts, which involve Russia as a mediator,
will never be settled?

– Yes, the resolution of the conflict will never be possible if it
depends on Russia. There will only be an official or unofficial
annexation of the territory by Russia.

– Can the South Ossetian script repeat in Nagorno Karabakh?

– The situation with the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict
differs from what is now going on in Georgia for the number of
aspects. Nagorno Karabakh does not border on Russia and Moscow does
not raise the issue of "Russian citizens", "compatriots" and so on and
the most important is that there are no Russian servicemen in Nagorno
Karabakh. I would like to note that this occurred owing to the
principal position of Azerbaijani diplomat Araz Azimov, who in 1994
made a categorical statement against displacement of the peacekeepers
of the "third countries", in other words, Russian peacekeepers in
Nagorno Karabakh.

– One of the main objects, subjected to Russia’s attack during war
against Georgia, became the BTC pipeline. Does it pose a threat to the
future of the regional energy projects?

– Following the incident in Turkey and the attack of Russian aviation
to the BTC pipeline, distrust emerged about the security of this
pipeline, which has never occurred so far. After it, Georgia, BP,
SOCAR and other companies suspended operation of export terminals in
Batumi and Poti and even partially in Supsa. The absence of
significant reservoirs means suspension of oil exports, which in turn
imply losses for the companies, the state budget of Azerbaijan and
Georgia and transit countries. It also caused distrust of investors,
who see that security of export pipelines in Turkey and Georgia is not
too strong and may stop financing transit projects with participation
of these countries.

Russia seems to try to redirect export of Caspian energy source from
West to North, to Russia, which is one of the consequences of war in
Georgia, which is weakening the position of all Caspian states,
transit countries and European states. It proves once again that
Russia is by no means West’s partner. The recent events in Georgia
damaged illusions of the United States and Europe regarding Russia.

/Day.Az/

Armenia harbored 8 Ossetians

Armenia harbored 8 Ossetians

armradio.am
16.08.2008 18:08

The RA Ministry of Territorial Governing informed the `Regnum’ agency
that during the last days 8 Ossetians and 16 Armenians (citizens of
Georgia) asked the Armenian authorities to give them a temporary
shelter.
Before this other two citizens of Georgia had applied to the RA
Ministry.

To remind, from the beginning of the counteraction between Georgia and
Ossetia 7, 5 000 citizens of Armenia and 3 000 foreigners have been
moved from Georgia to Armenia.

Aspects of the Caucasus conflict – You may not be aware of…

Newropeans Magazine
Friday, 15 August 2008
Aspects of the Caucasus conflict – You may not be aware of…
Written by Armen Kouyoumdjian
Friday, 15 August 2008

One has to pity the unfortunate timing of the US state of Georgia, for
having chosen the very week of the Caucasus conflict to organise a seminar
in Santiago about the attractions of the peanut state (considering the
natives’ weak hold on geography).
Based on my interest and activities in the region, I tried to interest the
Chilean media in a more informed coverage of the South Ossetia conflict, but
as usual with no response. "No necesitamos asesorías extranjeras", as
Mexico’s former president Lopez Portillo once declared. Here are some
additional thoughts and facts, for anyone who is interested.

PROVOKING THE BEAR
For centuries, Russia has had a defensive fortress attitude, and is
extremely touchy of any actual or potential hostility on its borders and
"near abroad". The end of the USSR suddenly created a number of such risks,
and a power struggle between actors as to which camp they would jump in.
Having had to swallow the loss of influence upon such reluctant former
allies as Hungary or Poland, things became more serious when the struggle
moved onto more threatening ground. The Baltic villages with nationhood
ambitions may be irrelevant as risks, but the Islamic republics of Central
Asia are not, though its current Muslim battles are in Chechnya. It managed
to keep a hold on Belarus, but the Ukraine has been the subject of a deep
political struggle. In the Caucasus, Armenia is the only almost
unconditional fan (notwithstanding foreign financed groups who try to push
towards an alignment with the West). Azerbaijan appears to be firmly in the
hands of a family dictatorship financed by energy resources, and backed by
neighbouring Turkey and the countries from where the oil multinationals
came. Georgia has been the plum prize over which the struggle has been the
hottest.
One can discuss for hours as to who bears the blame for conflict, though
remember that policing Southern Ossetia was handed over to Russia by the UN.
The latest episode is obviously the result of a misplaced Georgian bravado,
only comparable to the Argentine invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas, by
thinking that there would be no reaction. Russia has now shown, if there was
any need to prove it, that it will continue to be the mover and shaker in
the area. The whole thing had been simmering for some time, and Russia
accused Georgia of helping the Chechen rebels in the past.
GEORGIA
A nation with an old tradition and culture, independent Georgia has
nevertheless failed to project itself internationally and modernise. It has
no vibrant Diaspora like Armenia, and the only famous Georgian is Stalin,
and that says a lot. It has become an uncouth and corrupt place (even by the
non exacting standards of the region). It has at least two separatist
regions (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and a third potential one about which
people outside the area know nothing. Its Southeast region of Akherkhalaki
is mainly populated by Armenians, and was until recently the location of a
huge Russian military base, which has had to be evacuated. For the anecdote,
Charles Aznavour’s family comes from that region. Though there is no formal
separatist movement in what is a godforsaken place, becoming even poorer
after the closure of the Russian base, the Georgian authorities are
sufficiently paranoid about it to encourage ethnic Georgians from other
parts of the country to settle in recent years so as to modify the
population mix.

Whereas most people, even youngsters and children, still learn and speak
Russian in Armenia, where Moscow TV stations are accessible without cable
connection and old street signs in Cyrillic on streets and shops have
remained untouched, Georgia has actively pursued a "derussification" policy.

THE ISRAELI CONNECTION
Did Israel mistakenly empower Georgian aggression? The Israelis have been
very active in the Caucasus region since the end of the USSR. This takes
several forms. In the case of Azerbaijan, they have been the technical
partners of the USA and Britain, countries backing their oil multinationals
operating in the country, providing on the spot training and intelligence.
They have the advantage of possessing a good supply of Russian speakers who
emigrated from the region during and after the Cold War, and Russian is
still the lingua franca round the place. With Armenia, they have shamefully
cooperated with Turkey in Genocide negation, enlisting the sometimes
reluctant help of Diaspora Jewish organisation. They shall have to atone for
that disgraceful attitude one day.

However, the link with Georgia has been the closest. Within the effort to
"turn around" the country towards the West and NATO, Israel’s
military-industrial complex found its niche. The effort gathered momentum
from 2001, and has been helped by the close links of Georgian defence
minister Davit Kezerashvili with Israeli. He is not only Jewish (as is the
minister in charge of "re-integration", Temur Yakobashvili), but actually
emigrated to Israel in his youth, and had part of his education there,
before returning to Georgia and entering politics. He maintains close links
with Israel, and is also very close to the Georgian president. Both he and
Yakobashvili are fluent in Hebrew.

His presence and help encouraged Israeli firms such as IAI and Elbit to
offer sophisticated equipment, as Georgia went on a shopping spree to
modernise its armed forces to NATO standards. They delivered UAVs, upgraded
armoured vehicles, and supplied AA systems, communication and other
electronic equipment, rockets and ammunition.

The effort was not limited to hardware. Reserve Israeli generals Hirsh and
Ziv provided instruction on intelligence, urban combat, etc..even setting up
an elite deep penetration unit modelled on the Israeli Sayeret Matkal. Maybe
Hirsh was not the most judicious choice as an adviser, as he had to leave
the active list as one of the top officers responsible for the 2006 Lebanon
debacle. As for Yisrael Ziv, he runs Global CST, a security firm which has
been associated with the Ingrid Betancourt rescue operation, and is widely
considered as a Mossad arm.

The military flirting between Georgia and Israel was not problem-free. As
the planned sales got more sophisticated, the Russians pressured the
Israelis and told them in no uncertain terms that they were not amused, and
that it would have consequences in other areas of relations between the two
countries. The Foreign ministry pressured its Defence colleagues, who had to
clamp down on frustrated suppliers. It is also significant that all sales
were suspended when the latest conflict started.

The human material they trained was also less than top. The corrupt and
unmotivated Georgian military establishment was certainly not the top of the
class (news footage of the recent conflict actually shows them looking like
a ragtag guerrilla band rather than a disciplined army, not to mention
pictures of abandoned military vehicles whose crews seemed to have fled
without even bothering to fight). Still, if it is true that they managed to
bring down 19 Russian planes, they must have learned something.

Well apart from the military links, there is also reported to have been
quite a bit of business investment from Israel into Georgia.

ENERGY ASPECTS
In my July 30 paper on oil I wrote, referring to the triumvirate of Iran,
Russia and Venezuela, "They cannot afford either an interruption in supplies
or a collapse in the oil price. They will do everything, and I mean
anything, in order to avoid such a possibility". Though Russia did not start
the current conflict, it might well have escalated it more than it needed to
as a way of reversing the slide in the price of crude, which is off some 20
% from its record highs (Mrs. Bachelet seems to ignore that because on
August 13, she said "the price of oil keeps going up"). So far, the price
has failed to recover, but Russia may have achieved a more important
longer-term objective: to discourage future projects through the Caucasus,
competing with its own lucrative business which includes supplying the
greater part of all the gas consumed in Europe. Already, BP has shut off two
of its pipelines going through Georgia as a "safety measure". Some time ago,
Armenia, which has no energy of its own beyond an elderly nuclear station,
and whose conflict with Azerbaijan has meant that all the pipelines from the
Caspian to the West by-pass it, once discreetly reminded the world that
several of the lines passed within reach of its long-range artillery, even
if they were outside its territory.

The Caucasus has a very old oil tradition. The world’s first oil well was
drilled in what is today Azerbaijan as far ago as 1847, and by the turn of
the century, the Nobels, the Rothschilds and my compatriot Calouste
Gulbenkian were all active in the Baku oil fields. Gulbenkian subsequently
moved West, and between he and his son Nubar, were instrumental in setting
up not only the Iraq Petroleum Company, but also to finally persuade Shell
to drill in Venezuela, despite its reluctant chairman who insisted that "my
dear Gulbenkian, you know there is no oil in Venezuela". I wonder if
comandante Chávez knows this story. Armenians, all ways creative.

Currently, only Azerbaijan has hydrocarbons among the three Caucasus
republics, but the region had been planned to transport, in particular gas,
from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to European markets by-passing the Russian
network.

THE NEIGHBOURS
I mentioned earlier that Azerbaijan appeared to be in firm hands. In fact,
it is full of instabilities. The dictatorial Aliyev Jr. does not have the
mettle of his father, though he is as corrupt, and despite the oil and gas
wealth, the people are poorer than in Armenia. The mainly Shi’a-Muslim
population is divided between a westernised capital dominated by Turkish
investors and the oil industry expats, and a countryside where
Iranian-financed Islamic Madrasas simmer against the sinners in the capital.
A potential time bomb not made any easier by the appearance in recent years
of the Salafi ultra-orthodox current of Islam.

Neighbouring Iran also has a large and restive Azeri minority, which Tehran
does not want to get any more bright ideas. Despite the common brand of
Islam, the Turko-Iranian competition in influence has meant that relations
with Iran are somewhat subdued.

Last but not least is the Karabagh conflict, where Azerbaijan not only lost
control of the Armenian populated territory given to Azerbaijan by Stalin in
an attempt to ingratiate himself to Kemal Ataturk, whom he expected to head
a friendly Communist regime in Turkey (!). In the same war, Azerbaijan also
lost 20 % of its territory proper, which is still occupied by Armenian
troops, and has created a major refugee problem. Since a mid-90’s ceasefire,
and despite numerous negotiations, the situation is a stalemate.

For Armenia, the South Ossetia conflict is a good news/bad news situation.
The presence of thousands of Russian troops and two bases on its territory,
with additional materiel transferred from the closed base in Georgia and
thus ready to equip more, is an additional guarantee against any Azeri
adventure, now that the Russians have shown that they are ready to act.

On the negative side, the conflict has shown the vulnerability of Armenia to
events in Georgia. Though disruptions were kept miraculously to a minimum so
far, much of the gas supplies and trade in and out of landlocked Armenia,
transit through Georgia. With the Turkish border closed, the only other
alternative route is through Iran. It is longer and more expensive. Iran is
also an alternative source of gas, with the onset of a pipeline from the
south, though it is not clear whether this has yet been connected to the
central Armenian network.

The psychological damage is also important. Foreign investors and tourists,
already affected by corruption and poor governance in the first instance,
and expensive air fares and a strong Armenian currency which has doubled
against the dollar in recent years, may become more reluctant. One good move
would be to achieve a motus vivendi with Turkey to re-open the border, and
some progress had been reported in that direction prior to the Ossetian
conflict.

THE GREAT POWERS
We Armenians know very well that in geopolitics, distance does not make the
heart grow fonder, and when push comes to shove, you are on your own. The
Georgians have now found it out at their expense, belatedly. Did they really
think, or had someone had told them, as in the attempted Bay of Pigs
invasion of Cuba, that they should take the lead in attacking and others
would follow? In the event, even the unscrupulous Israelis let them down,
and it took
several days for the Americans to say tut tut to Russia, not very
convincingly. They apparently offered transport to bring back the Georgian
battalion from Iraq, and are to send humanitarian aid. Britain’s Royal Navy
cancelled a joint exercise with Russia. Big deal. The French sent in two
planeloads of humanitarian aid, and their busybody president who happened to
chair the EU and fancied himself as having brokered an agreement which the
Russians planned to play to in any case, for the moment and as they wish.
Sarkozy may yet turn out to have played Daladier in the show. At the time of
writing, the ceasefire was already under stress.

Anyway, what could the foreign powers do? Attack Russia? The bottom line
might be to convince those Eastern Europeans still pondering which side of
the fence to jump, that in foreign politics, there are no friends, just
interests. As British energy and security specialist John Roberts writes:
"Frozen conflicts are simply ice-covered volcanoes".
Armen Kouyoumdjian
Country Risk Strategist
Valparaiso – Chile

Euro Champion Takes G-R 120kg Bronze

EURO CHAMPION TAKES G-R 120KG BRONZE

Beijing 2008
2008-08-14 19:37:01
China

(BEIJING, August 14) — Armenia’s Yuri Patrikeev beat Jalmar Sjoberg
of Sweden for one of two Men’s Greco-Roman 120 kilogram Wrestling
bronzes on Thursday, August 14.

Patrikeev won the first period 2-1. The two wrestlers came to a draw
1-1 in the second period, each taking one point on the par terre,
but Patrikeev won the third period 3-0.

Patrikeev won this year’s European Championship. The 28-year-old was
also the bronze medalist in the 2007 World Championship.

Tehran: Iran’s "Lost Share" To Compete In Italian Festival

IRAN’S "LOST SHARE" TO COMPETE IN ITALIAN FESTIVAL

MehrNews.com
2008/08/13
Iran

TEHRAN, Aug. 13 (MNA) — Hassan Najafi’s "Lost Share" will be screened
at the Religion Today Film Festival, to be held from October 17
through 31 in Trentino, Italy.

A joint production of Iran and Azerbaijan, the film is the story of
an Azerbaijani couple whose child suffers from an incurable disease
and they seek help from an Imamzadeh (a Persian word that refers to
an immediate descendant of a Shia Imam) in Iran.

Shams band to tour U.S.

TEHRAN — Shams band will perform "Songs of Rumi and Peace" concerts
in four cities in the United States in September and October.

Conducted by Keikhosro Purnazeri, the band features Farshad Jamali as
vocalist and some Turkish and Armenian virtuosos. Dervishes from Konya
would also be performing the ritual Sama dance during the concert.

Sahar TV spotlights Turkish Shia

TEHRAN — "The Porch of Thought", a documentary series directed by
Mojtaba Rezaeieh Azadi, will be aired from Sahar, Iranian TV station
available on satellite.

The documentary spotlights the social position and activities of
Turkish Shia who reside in Turkey’s cities such as Ankara and Ezmir.

It also features their rituals performed during religious ceremonies
and days of mourning in various mosques and religious sites in
the Turkey.

Iranian illustrator to participate at Berlin Literature Festival

EHRAN — Iranian illustrator Farshid Shafiei will participate at the
9th International Literature Festival in Berlin from September 24 to
October 4.

He will recite stories from his books and teach illustration of
literature for the children’s and young people’s section of the
festival.

Bairami’s "Sabalan Stories" published in U.S.

TEHRAN – The Mazda Publisher in the U.S has recently released an
English version of "Sabalan Stories", a collection of Persian stories
by Mohammadreza Bairami.

The U.S.-based Iranian scholar Mohammadreza Ghanoonparvar has
translated the book into English.