Baku:Sokor: Conflict resolution not possible if it depends on Russia

Today.Az, Azerbaijan

Vladimir Sokor: "Conflict resolution will never be possible, if it
depends on Russia. There will only be an official or unofficial
annexation of the territory to Russia"

16 August 2008 [12:10] – Today.Az

Day.Az interview with Vladimir Sokor, US political scientist, senior
research officer of Jamestown’s Foundation (US).

– Separate leaders of the western countries start to toughen their
criticism of Russia for the military aggression against Georgia. Can
any means of pressure on Moscow be applied in this case and how can it
occur?

– It is a difficult question as the West lacks economic means of
pressure on Moscow. Russia has an advantage for the first time in its
history. This has never occurred in the Russian history. West’s
economic means are now too limited.

This means that resistance should be conducted on the political
level. For example, the European Union should stop talks with Russia
on strategic partnership and non-visa regime.

Moreover, NATO members and even countries, which want to join this
organization, should change their priorities and focus on the defense
of the national territory against Russian aggression.

The best divisions of the Georgian army, which were in Iraq and fought
on the US side, did not participate in the defense of their own
country. Moreover, under US recommendations, most countries created
military divisions for participating in the peacekeeping activity or
anti-terror operation beyond their own borders , including in Iraq,
Afghanistan and the Balkans. But it turned out that the defense of
one’s own country should be the primary thing.

– Which conclusions should Azerbaijan draw from the events in South
Ossetia?

– The first conclusion for Azerbaijan is that Washington today remains
even a greater strategic partner and ally for Baku. Certainly, the
United States should perceive it correctly. The United States, which
reacted to the events in Georgia so late and passively, should realize
that the main geopolitical game today is for the Black Sea and Caspian
regions.

Russia has undertaken this operation in Georgia, realizing that there
is no rival to its policy in the Caucasus, as the United States is
busy in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as with the Iran problem. These
three conflicts weaken the United States.

Washington has chosen wrong priorities. I think in fact, the leaders
of all the countries, locating between the eastern borders of the
European Union and NATO and the Caspian Sea, should tell the United
States that the priority it has chosen are erroneous and that the
destiny of the Euroatlantic community, US strategic position in the
world and stability of the North Atlantic alliance depends on its
policy in this area. Here the correlation of powers in the modern
world will be defined. Independence and security of these countries
and export of energy sources via these countries from the Caspian
basin to Europe should become the main priorities of the US
policy. Yet this understanding is now weak or completely absent in
Washington.

– Can the Russian peacekeeping mission be spoken of following the
events in Georgia, especially in the resolution of the conflicts in
the South Caucasus?

– By the events in Georgia, Russia has made a sort of a revolution in
the issue of peacekeeping. It showed the ability to hold military
actions of any scale and in any place under pretense of peacekeeping.

The peacekeeping mission of Russia has always been an absolute
lie. Russia participated in the very beginning of conflicts in
Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan as a party and held these wars. Russia
and Armenia are the direct initiators and the participants of war in
Karabakh.

Thus, to speak of the Russian peacekeeping and Russia’s role as a
mediator in the conflict resolution is merely ridiculous, which is
proven by the experience of the last 15 years.

– Does it mean that the conflicts, which involve Russia as a mediator,
will never be settled?

– Yes, the resolution of the conflict will never be possible if it
depends on Russia. There will only be an official or unofficial
annexation of the territory by Russia.

– Can the South Ossetian script repeat in Nagorno Karabakh?

– The situation with the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict
differs from what is now going on in Georgia for the number of
aspects. Nagorno Karabakh does not border on Russia and Moscow does
not raise the issue of "Russian citizens", "compatriots" and so on and
the most important is that there are no Russian servicemen in Nagorno
Karabakh. I would like to note that this occurred owing to the
principal position of Azerbaijani diplomat Araz Azimov, who in 1994
made a categorical statement against displacement of the peacekeepers
of the "third countries", in other words, Russian peacekeepers in
Nagorno Karabakh.

– One of the main objects, subjected to Russia’s attack during war
against Georgia, became the BTC pipeline. Does it pose a threat to the
future of the regional energy projects?

– Following the incident in Turkey and the attack of Russian aviation
to the BTC pipeline, distrust emerged about the security of this
pipeline, which has never occurred so far. After it, Georgia, BP,
SOCAR and other companies suspended operation of export terminals in
Batumi and Poti and even partially in Supsa. The absence of
significant reservoirs means suspension of oil exports, which in turn
imply losses for the companies, the state budget of Azerbaijan and
Georgia and transit countries. It also caused distrust of investors,
who see that security of export pipelines in Turkey and Georgia is not
too strong and may stop financing transit projects with participation
of these countries.

Russia seems to try to redirect export of Caspian energy source from
West to North, to Russia, which is one of the consequences of war in
Georgia, which is weakening the position of all Caspian states,
transit countries and European states. It proves once again that
Russia is by no means West’s partner. The recent events in Georgia
damaged illusions of the United States and Europe regarding Russia.

/Day.Az/

Armenia harbored 8 Ossetians

Armenia harbored 8 Ossetians

armradio.am
16.08.2008 18:08

The RA Ministry of Territorial Governing informed the `Regnum’ agency
that during the last days 8 Ossetians and 16 Armenians (citizens of
Georgia) asked the Armenian authorities to give them a temporary
shelter.
Before this other two citizens of Georgia had applied to the RA
Ministry.

To remind, from the beginning of the counteraction between Georgia and
Ossetia 7, 5 000 citizens of Armenia and 3 000 foreigners have been
moved from Georgia to Armenia.

Aspects of the Caucasus conflict – You may not be aware of…

Newropeans Magazine
Friday, 15 August 2008
Aspects of the Caucasus conflict – You may not be aware of…
Written by Armen Kouyoumdjian
Friday, 15 August 2008

One has to pity the unfortunate timing of the US state of Georgia, for
having chosen the very week of the Caucasus conflict to organise a seminar
in Santiago about the attractions of the peanut state (considering the
natives’ weak hold on geography).
Based on my interest and activities in the region, I tried to interest the
Chilean media in a more informed coverage of the South Ossetia conflict, but
as usual with no response. "No necesitamos asesorías extranjeras", as
Mexico’s former president Lopez Portillo once declared. Here are some
additional thoughts and facts, for anyone who is interested.

PROVOKING THE BEAR
For centuries, Russia has had a defensive fortress attitude, and is
extremely touchy of any actual or potential hostility on its borders and
"near abroad". The end of the USSR suddenly created a number of such risks,
and a power struggle between actors as to which camp they would jump in.
Having had to swallow the loss of influence upon such reluctant former
allies as Hungary or Poland, things became more serious when the struggle
moved onto more threatening ground. The Baltic villages with nationhood
ambitions may be irrelevant as risks, but the Islamic republics of Central
Asia are not, though its current Muslim battles are in Chechnya. It managed
to keep a hold on Belarus, but the Ukraine has been the subject of a deep
political struggle. In the Caucasus, Armenia is the only almost
unconditional fan (notwithstanding foreign financed groups who try to push
towards an alignment with the West). Azerbaijan appears to be firmly in the
hands of a family dictatorship financed by energy resources, and backed by
neighbouring Turkey and the countries from where the oil multinationals
came. Georgia has been the plum prize over which the struggle has been the
hottest.
One can discuss for hours as to who bears the blame for conflict, though
remember that policing Southern Ossetia was handed over to Russia by the UN.
The latest episode is obviously the result of a misplaced Georgian bravado,
only comparable to the Argentine invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas, by
thinking that there would be no reaction. Russia has now shown, if there was
any need to prove it, that it will continue to be the mover and shaker in
the area. The whole thing had been simmering for some time, and Russia
accused Georgia of helping the Chechen rebels in the past.
GEORGIA
A nation with an old tradition and culture, independent Georgia has
nevertheless failed to project itself internationally and modernise. It has
no vibrant Diaspora like Armenia, and the only famous Georgian is Stalin,
and that says a lot. It has become an uncouth and corrupt place (even by the
non exacting standards of the region). It has at least two separatist
regions (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and a third potential one about which
people outside the area know nothing. Its Southeast region of Akherkhalaki
is mainly populated by Armenians, and was until recently the location of a
huge Russian military base, which has had to be evacuated. For the anecdote,
Charles Aznavour’s family comes from that region. Though there is no formal
separatist movement in what is a godforsaken place, becoming even poorer
after the closure of the Russian base, the Georgian authorities are
sufficiently paranoid about it to encourage ethnic Georgians from other
parts of the country to settle in recent years so as to modify the
population mix.

Whereas most people, even youngsters and children, still learn and speak
Russian in Armenia, where Moscow TV stations are accessible without cable
connection and old street signs in Cyrillic on streets and shops have
remained untouched, Georgia has actively pursued a "derussification" policy.

THE ISRAELI CONNECTION
Did Israel mistakenly empower Georgian aggression? The Israelis have been
very active in the Caucasus region since the end of the USSR. This takes
several forms. In the case of Azerbaijan, they have been the technical
partners of the USA and Britain, countries backing their oil multinationals
operating in the country, providing on the spot training and intelligence.
They have the advantage of possessing a good supply of Russian speakers who
emigrated from the region during and after the Cold War, and Russian is
still the lingua franca round the place. With Armenia, they have shamefully
cooperated with Turkey in Genocide negation, enlisting the sometimes
reluctant help of Diaspora Jewish organisation. They shall have to atone for
that disgraceful attitude one day.

However, the link with Georgia has been the closest. Within the effort to
"turn around" the country towards the West and NATO, Israel’s
military-industrial complex found its niche. The effort gathered momentum
from 2001, and has been helped by the close links of Georgian defence
minister Davit Kezerashvili with Israeli. He is not only Jewish (as is the
minister in charge of "re-integration", Temur Yakobashvili), but actually
emigrated to Israel in his youth, and had part of his education there,
before returning to Georgia and entering politics. He maintains close links
with Israel, and is also very close to the Georgian president. Both he and
Yakobashvili are fluent in Hebrew.

His presence and help encouraged Israeli firms such as IAI and Elbit to
offer sophisticated equipment, as Georgia went on a shopping spree to
modernise its armed forces to NATO standards. They delivered UAVs, upgraded
armoured vehicles, and supplied AA systems, communication and other
electronic equipment, rockets and ammunition.

The effort was not limited to hardware. Reserve Israeli generals Hirsh and
Ziv provided instruction on intelligence, urban combat, etc..even setting up
an elite deep penetration unit modelled on the Israeli Sayeret Matkal. Maybe
Hirsh was not the most judicious choice as an adviser, as he had to leave
the active list as one of the top officers responsible for the 2006 Lebanon
debacle. As for Yisrael Ziv, he runs Global CST, a security firm which has
been associated with the Ingrid Betancourt rescue operation, and is widely
considered as a Mossad arm.

The military flirting between Georgia and Israel was not problem-free. As
the planned sales got more sophisticated, the Russians pressured the
Israelis and told them in no uncertain terms that they were not amused, and
that it would have consequences in other areas of relations between the two
countries. The Foreign ministry pressured its Defence colleagues, who had to
clamp down on frustrated suppliers. It is also significant that all sales
were suspended when the latest conflict started.

The human material they trained was also less than top. The corrupt and
unmotivated Georgian military establishment was certainly not the top of the
class (news footage of the recent conflict actually shows them looking like
a ragtag guerrilla band rather than a disciplined army, not to mention
pictures of abandoned military vehicles whose crews seemed to have fled
without even bothering to fight). Still, if it is true that they managed to
bring down 19 Russian planes, they must have learned something.

Well apart from the military links, there is also reported to have been
quite a bit of business investment from Israel into Georgia.

ENERGY ASPECTS
In my July 30 paper on oil I wrote, referring to the triumvirate of Iran,
Russia and Venezuela, "They cannot afford either an interruption in supplies
or a collapse in the oil price. They will do everything, and I mean
anything, in order to avoid such a possibility". Though Russia did not start
the current conflict, it might well have escalated it more than it needed to
as a way of reversing the slide in the price of crude, which is off some 20
% from its record highs (Mrs. Bachelet seems to ignore that because on
August 13, she said "the price of oil keeps going up"). So far, the price
has failed to recover, but Russia may have achieved a more important
longer-term objective: to discourage future projects through the Caucasus,
competing with its own lucrative business which includes supplying the
greater part of all the gas consumed in Europe. Already, BP has shut off two
of its pipelines going through Georgia as a "safety measure". Some time ago,
Armenia, which has no energy of its own beyond an elderly nuclear station,
and whose conflict with Azerbaijan has meant that all the pipelines from the
Caspian to the West by-pass it, once discreetly reminded the world that
several of the lines passed within reach of its long-range artillery, even
if they were outside its territory.

The Caucasus has a very old oil tradition. The world’s first oil well was
drilled in what is today Azerbaijan as far ago as 1847, and by the turn of
the century, the Nobels, the Rothschilds and my compatriot Calouste
Gulbenkian were all active in the Baku oil fields. Gulbenkian subsequently
moved West, and between he and his son Nubar, were instrumental in setting
up not only the Iraq Petroleum Company, but also to finally persuade Shell
to drill in Venezuela, despite its reluctant chairman who insisted that "my
dear Gulbenkian, you know there is no oil in Venezuela". I wonder if
comandante Chávez knows this story. Armenians, all ways creative.

Currently, only Azerbaijan has hydrocarbons among the three Caucasus
republics, but the region had been planned to transport, in particular gas,
from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to European markets by-passing the Russian
network.

THE NEIGHBOURS
I mentioned earlier that Azerbaijan appeared to be in firm hands. In fact,
it is full of instabilities. The dictatorial Aliyev Jr. does not have the
mettle of his father, though he is as corrupt, and despite the oil and gas
wealth, the people are poorer than in Armenia. The mainly Shi’a-Muslim
population is divided between a westernised capital dominated by Turkish
investors and the oil industry expats, and a countryside where
Iranian-financed Islamic Madrasas simmer against the sinners in the capital.
A potential time bomb not made any easier by the appearance in recent years
of the Salafi ultra-orthodox current of Islam.

Neighbouring Iran also has a large and restive Azeri minority, which Tehran
does not want to get any more bright ideas. Despite the common brand of
Islam, the Turko-Iranian competition in influence has meant that relations
with Iran are somewhat subdued.

Last but not least is the Karabagh conflict, where Azerbaijan not only lost
control of the Armenian populated territory given to Azerbaijan by Stalin in
an attempt to ingratiate himself to Kemal Ataturk, whom he expected to head
a friendly Communist regime in Turkey (!). In the same war, Azerbaijan also
lost 20 % of its territory proper, which is still occupied by Armenian
troops, and has created a major refugee problem. Since a mid-90’s ceasefire,
and despite numerous negotiations, the situation is a stalemate.

For Armenia, the South Ossetia conflict is a good news/bad news situation.
The presence of thousands of Russian troops and two bases on its territory,
with additional materiel transferred from the closed base in Georgia and
thus ready to equip more, is an additional guarantee against any Azeri
adventure, now that the Russians have shown that they are ready to act.

On the negative side, the conflict has shown the vulnerability of Armenia to
events in Georgia. Though disruptions were kept miraculously to a minimum so
far, much of the gas supplies and trade in and out of landlocked Armenia,
transit through Georgia. With the Turkish border closed, the only other
alternative route is through Iran. It is longer and more expensive. Iran is
also an alternative source of gas, with the onset of a pipeline from the
south, though it is not clear whether this has yet been connected to the
central Armenian network.

The psychological damage is also important. Foreign investors and tourists,
already affected by corruption and poor governance in the first instance,
and expensive air fares and a strong Armenian currency which has doubled
against the dollar in recent years, may become more reluctant. One good move
would be to achieve a motus vivendi with Turkey to re-open the border, and
some progress had been reported in that direction prior to the Ossetian
conflict.

THE GREAT POWERS
We Armenians know very well that in geopolitics, distance does not make the
heart grow fonder, and when push comes to shove, you are on your own. The
Georgians have now found it out at their expense, belatedly. Did they really
think, or had someone had told them, as in the attempted Bay of Pigs
invasion of Cuba, that they should take the lead in attacking and others
would follow? In the event, even the unscrupulous Israelis let them down,
and it took
several days for the Americans to say tut tut to Russia, not very
convincingly. They apparently offered transport to bring back the Georgian
battalion from Iraq, and are to send humanitarian aid. Britain’s Royal Navy
cancelled a joint exercise with Russia. Big deal. The French sent in two
planeloads of humanitarian aid, and their busybody president who happened to
chair the EU and fancied himself as having brokered an agreement which the
Russians planned to play to in any case, for the moment and as they wish.
Sarkozy may yet turn out to have played Daladier in the show. At the time of
writing, the ceasefire was already under stress.

Anyway, what could the foreign powers do? Attack Russia? The bottom line
might be to convince those Eastern Europeans still pondering which side of
the fence to jump, that in foreign politics, there are no friends, just
interests. As British energy and security specialist John Roberts writes:
"Frozen conflicts are simply ice-covered volcanoes".
Armen Kouyoumdjian
Country Risk Strategist
Valparaiso – Chile

Euro Champion Takes G-R 120kg Bronze

EURO CHAMPION TAKES G-R 120KG BRONZE

Beijing 2008
2008-08-14 19:37:01
China

(BEIJING, August 14) — Armenia’s Yuri Patrikeev beat Jalmar Sjoberg
of Sweden for one of two Men’s Greco-Roman 120 kilogram Wrestling
bronzes on Thursday, August 14.

Patrikeev won the first period 2-1. The two wrestlers came to a draw
1-1 in the second period, each taking one point on the par terre,
but Patrikeev won the third period 3-0.

Patrikeev won this year’s European Championship. The 28-year-old was
also the bronze medalist in the 2007 World Championship.

Tehran: Iran’s "Lost Share" To Compete In Italian Festival

IRAN’S "LOST SHARE" TO COMPETE IN ITALIAN FESTIVAL

MehrNews.com
2008/08/13
Iran

TEHRAN, Aug. 13 (MNA) — Hassan Najafi’s "Lost Share" will be screened
at the Religion Today Film Festival, to be held from October 17
through 31 in Trentino, Italy.

A joint production of Iran and Azerbaijan, the film is the story of
an Azerbaijani couple whose child suffers from an incurable disease
and they seek help from an Imamzadeh (a Persian word that refers to
an immediate descendant of a Shia Imam) in Iran.

Shams band to tour U.S.

TEHRAN — Shams band will perform "Songs of Rumi and Peace" concerts
in four cities in the United States in September and October.

Conducted by Keikhosro Purnazeri, the band features Farshad Jamali as
vocalist and some Turkish and Armenian virtuosos. Dervishes from Konya
would also be performing the ritual Sama dance during the concert.

Sahar TV spotlights Turkish Shia

TEHRAN — "The Porch of Thought", a documentary series directed by
Mojtaba Rezaeieh Azadi, will be aired from Sahar, Iranian TV station
available on satellite.

The documentary spotlights the social position and activities of
Turkish Shia who reside in Turkey’s cities such as Ankara and Ezmir.

It also features their rituals performed during religious ceremonies
and days of mourning in various mosques and religious sites in
the Turkey.

Iranian illustrator to participate at Berlin Literature Festival

EHRAN — Iranian illustrator Farshid Shafiei will participate at the
9th International Literature Festival in Berlin from September 24 to
October 4.

He will recite stories from his books and teach illustration of
literature for the children’s and young people’s section of the
festival.

Bairami’s "Sabalan Stories" published in U.S.

TEHRAN – The Mazda Publisher in the U.S has recently released an
English version of "Sabalan Stories", a collection of Persian stories
by Mohammadreza Bairami.

The U.S.-based Iranian scholar Mohammadreza Ghanoonparvar has
translated the book into English.

Around 270 Diaspora Students Apply For Studying In Armenian State Un

AROUND 270 DIASPORA STUDENTS APPLY FOR STUDYING IN ARMENIAN STATE UNIVERSITIES

ARMENPRESS
Aug 11, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 11, ARMENPRESS: About 270 Diaspora Armenian students
have applied to the Armenian Education Ministry to study in Armenian
state universities. An official from the ministry Amalya Kocharian
said that the majority of applicants are from Georgia, Russia, Iran,
Syria and CIS countries.

She said for the first time they have received applications from
two citizens of Mexico who want to study in Brusov State Linguistic
University and in Armenian State Architectural University.

This year state-funded places have been provided for Diaspora Armenian
applicants who want to major in Armenian, Culture, and Pedagogy.

The documents of the Diaspora Armenian students are being received
from July 1 to August 20. The interviews for entrance will be conducted
from August 22 to September 6.

UNDP And Migration Agency To Establish Migration Consulting Center I

UNDP AND MIGRATION AGENCY TO ESTABLISH MIGRATION CONSULTING CENTER IN GYUMRI

ARMENPRESS
Aug 7, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 7, ARMENPRESS: The UNDP and the Migration Agency of
the Territorial Ministry will join efforts to establish a migration
consulting center in Armenia’s second largest town of Gyumri.

The main goal of this center will be to inform migrant workers leaving
for other countries, about these countries’ migration legislation
and other related information.

Rafik Potinian, head of the social affairs department at the governor’s
office, told Armenpress that the decision to set up the center in
Gyumri was prompted by the fact that thousands of local men travel
to Russia and the Middle East in search of jobs.

The center will open in September.

Armenia To Become Member Of Eurasian Development Bank

ARMENIA TO BECOME MEMBER OF EURASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Noyan Tapan

Au g 2, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 2, NOYAN TAPAN. At the July 31 sitting, the Armenian
government made a decision to set up an interdepartmental working
group for implementation of work on Armenia’s becoming a member of
the Eurasian Development Bank. In the words of RA minister of energy
and natural resources Armen Movsisian, within 10 days the working
group will submit a proposal on allocation of 100 thousand USD for
acquiring shares of the Eurasian Development Bank with resources of
the RA government’s reserve fund.

http://www.nt.am/news.php?shownews=116234