Author: Taslakhchian Andranik

GUL HERALDS NEW ERA FOR RESOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Today’s Zaman
Nov 6 2008
Turkey

Ilham Aliyev (R) was welcomed by Abdullah Gul in Ankara.

President Abdullah Gul said yesterday that a new era for the resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has begun, saying that all Caucasian
leaders recently began displaying a will for a resolution of regional
disputes.

Gul’s remarks came at a joint press conference with Azerbaijani
President Ä°lham Aliyev, who arrived in the Turkish capital yesterday
only days after a landmark meeting in Moscow, where he discussed
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with his Armenian counterpart, Serzh
Sarksyan. This is Aliyev’s first visit after being re-elected for a
second term on Oct. 15.

"We have courageously started dealing with problems of the
Caucasus. Caucasian leaders are displaying the will for resolving
these problems on various platforms," Gul said, while also referring
to Turkey’s proposal for a regional platform to discuss and resolve
conflicts in the troubled Caucasus after a brief war between Russia and
Georgia. With the planned Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform,
Ankara aims to bring Turkey, Armenia, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia
together around the same table.

"Caucasus countries, especially Azerbaijan, are lending support to this
[proposal]. We believe that an environment to be created with dialogue
and mutual understanding will lead to the resolution of problems in
the Caucasus. I can state that a new era concerning the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has begun," Gul said. Nagorno-Karabakh’s
mostly ethnic Armenian population broke away from Azerbaijan in a
war in the early 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed. It now runs
its own affairs, with support from Armenia.

After talks outside Moscow with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
on Sunday, Aliyev and Sarksyan agreed to develop confidence-building
measures as they search for a way to resolve the conflict.

Gul voiced support for the Moscow talks and expressed hope that it will
be followed by other steps. Aliyev said he backed Turkey’s proposal
for the regional platform while underlining that he applauded Turkey’s
efforts to bring peace and stability to the region.

The Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, released a written statement
announcing its satisfaction over the outcome of the Moscow talks
between Aliyev and Sarksyan. The ministry said a network of relations
based on cooperation and mutual trust within the framework of Turkey’s
proposal for a regional platform could serve for confidence building
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

–Boundary_(ID_B0HP0QTzrBCsFDRIvb++qw )–

ATOM EGOYAN, NEW BOARD MEMBER

Nov 6, 2008

Atom Egoyan is the most recent addition to the Honorary Board of the
Civilitas Foundation.

Mr. Egoyan, an independent Canadian filmmaker, has directed a dozen
full-length feature films, operas, several television episodes, and a
few shorter pieces. His best-known work was the Sweet Hereafter (1997),
which landed him two Academy Award nominations as well as the Grand
Prize of the Jury from the Cannes Film Festival. The film Ararat, the
first major motion picture to deal directly with the Armenian Genocide,
won the Best Picture prize at the Genie Awards and the Golden Apricot
at the Yerevan International Film Festival. Mr. Egoyan is a seven-time
recipient of Canada’s top Genie Awards. His latest motion picture,
Adoration, was a Cannes Film Festival Grand Prize nominee and Toronto
Film Festival Grand Prize winner in 2008.

"We have much to learn from Atom’s long-time commitment to trying
to make understandable the universal human experience and we welcome
his contribution to the development of Civilitas" says Vartan Oskanian.

REVENUES OF 2009 STATE BUDGET PROGRAMMED TO AMOUNT TO 905.4 BILLION DRAMS AGAINST 773.9 BILLION DRAMS IN 2008

Noyan Tapan

Nov 3, 2008

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 3, NOYAN TAPAN. By the 2009 draft state budget of
the RA, the total amount of revenues, including official transfers,
are programmed to amount to 905.4 bln drams, which exceeds by 17%
the 2008 index of 773.9 bln drams. The budgetary revenues/GDP ratio
will make 21.7% in 2009 against the 2008 programed index of 21.1%.

The first deputy minister of finance Pavel Safarian said at the October
31 sitting of the NA standing committees that taxes and state duties
will make a large share of budgetary revenues – 80.2%, compulsory
social security payments will make up 14.2%, official tarnsfers 4%,
and other revenues will ensure 1.6% of annual budgetary revenues.

Taxes and state duties are programmed to make 726 bln drams in
2009 (17.4% of GDP) or by 101.2 bln drams more than in 2008. Tax
reveues were programmed by the previous years’ tax collection and the
tendencies of macroeconomic environment development (693.4 bln drams),
additional revenues expected from administrative measures (6.6 bln
drams) and refunding of surplus payments on VAT (26 bln drams).

State budgetary revenues from compulsory social security payments
were assessed at 128.4 bln drams against 104.9 bln drams in 2008. The
programmed index for this type of budgetary revenues makes up 3.08%
of GDP against 2.98% in 2008.

It is expected to receive official grants of 36.2 bln drams
from foreign states and international organizations in 2009. In
particular, it is expected to receive a 6.6 bln dram grant from the
European Commission, a 1.7 bln dram grant from KfW Bank (Germany)
for restoration of the water supply and water waste systems in Lori
and Shirak marzes, 1.4 bln drams from the EBRD for implementation of
the grant program on environmental protection of Lake Sevan, 1.7 bln
drams from the Asian Development Bank as assistance under a water
supply and water waste program, and 24.8 bln drams as other target
grants from international financial organizations and foreign states,
including 21,5 bln drams from the Millennium Challenge Fund.

According to the chairman of the State Revenue Committee adjunct to
the RA government Gagik Khachatrian, collecting reveues of the state
budget will be really hard in 2009. However, the committee has its
strategic program, by which revenues must be ensured thanks to an
economic growth and improved administration in the system. It was
stated that it is envisaged implementing structural and optimization
programs in tax and customs sectors. The work and checks in these
sectors will be done based on the "risk assessment results". "It
is inexpedient to fulfil the budget by conducting aimless checks,"
G. Khachatrian said.

CHAMPION OF OLYMPIC GAMES, GYMNAST EDWARD AZARIAN TURNS 50

Noyan Tapan

Nov 4, 2008

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 4, NOYAN TAPAN. Champion of Olympic Games,
gymnast Edward Azarian turns 50 on November 4. He was born in 1958
in Yerevan. He graduated from the Law Department of Yerevan State
University. He is many times champion of Armenia and an absolute
champion of the USSR, world cup-winner and champion of the 22nd Moscow
Olympic Games. Merited Sports Master of USSR Edward Azarian is the
son of three times champion of Olympic Games, the best sportsman of
Armenia in the 20th century Albert Azarian. Now he resides in the
U.S. with his family.

ALAN WADDAMS: "IT IS VERY GOOD THAT AZERBAIJANI AND ARMENIAN PRESIDENTS MET AND SIGNED A DOCUMENT"

Azeri Press Agency
Nov 4 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova – APA. "It is very good that Azerbaijani and
Armenian Presidents met and signed a document," representative of
the European Commission in Azerbaijan Alan Waddams told APA.

He praised that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of one
the co-chairing countries of OSCE Minsk Group arranged the meeting. The
diplomat considers that it was good idea to hold events aiming to
establish mutual confidence between the conflicting parties.

"But I think it will be difficult to arrange these contacts. It will
not be easy to organize the events that will satisfy both sides,"
he said.

AS THE ARMENIAN VOTE GOES, SO GOES THE NATION?

Blogger News Network
Nov 2 2008

Crazy as it sounds, losing the Armenian vote just might cost McCain
the election.

How can the votes of this "small tribe of unimportant people," as
Armenian-American writer William Saroyan described them, matter? By
various estimates Americans of Armenian descent number 385,500 to
1 million – roughly one half of one percent of the total number of
people who voted in the November 2004 election. But Armenians have
more clout – particularly in this election – than their miniscule
numbers might suggest.

Once a reliable Republican voting bloc, Armenian-Americans have
left the GOP en masse after George W. Bush reneged on his campaign
promises of 2000 and 2004 to support the Armenian Genocide Resolution
in Congress, which characterizes the systematic slaughter of 1.5
million Armenians by the Ottoman Turks in 1915 as a genocidal crime
against humanity.

Unlike John McCain, who avoids the topic, Barack Obama has acknowledged
the Armenian Genocide as settled history, and anecdotal evidence
suggests that he enjoys near-absolute support of the Armenian-American
community. Armenians have no idea where McCain stands on passing the
Armenian Genocide Resolution, but Obama has made a convincing case
to this community that he stands with them in their quest for justice.

Armenians have clustered in states that are solidly Democrat –
particularly, Calif., Mass. and New York – so they will neither help
Obama much nor hurt McCain much in those states by abandoning the
GOP. But swing states could be another story. The Armenian population
in several of the states up for grabs is small, but these votes could
be decisive in two of them this year: Fla. Is home to 25,000 Armenians,
Mich. to 60,000.

Armenians consider themselves in a permanent state of Diaspora, and
reward candidates who support recognition of the Armenian Genocide
with their wallets and their votes. Like Cubans and Evangelicals,
Armenians tend to be single-issue voters. In the past, candidates from
both parties made sure to pay lip service to supporting the Armenian
Genocide Resolution and Armenians tended to vote Republican because
of shared conservative economic and social values.

But when it mattered most last October, Democrats tried to get the
Armenian Genocide Resolution passed in the House whereas Republicans
repaid the decades-long loyalty of the Armenian community with betrayal
after Turkey threatened to complicate Iraq war logistics by cutting
off air and ground supply routes. Obama – who successfully pursued
a "no vote left behind" strategy in caucus states – wasted no time
capitalizing on the opportunity created by Bush to aggressively court
Armenian-Americans.

Neither of the candidates’ campaign Web sites include speeches or
position papers by the candidates on the Armenian Genocide. However,
an officially-sanctioned coalition group, Armenians for Obama, compares
Obama’s positions with McCain’s using statements and speeches from
both candidates.

In contrast, McCain has shunned the term "genocide," even in his
half-hearted attempts to reach out to the Armenian community. And
not only McCain does not have a counterpart to Armenians for Obama
backing him – there are, however, American Indians for McCain,
Bikers for McCain and Racing Fans for McCain – even the Web site of
the National Organization of Republican Armenians hasn’t been updated
for quite a while.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen zeros in on seven must-win swing states,
which are very much in play, including Fla. Other numbers crunchers
include Mich. on their lists of crucial battleground states. While
a comfortable five-point margin separated George W. Bush and John
Kerry in both states in 2004 (Bush won Fla. 52 percent to 47 percent;
the results were flipped in Mich.) the Fla. race is much tighter
this year, with most polls showing just one to two points separating
McCain and Obama – and McCain has already ceded Mich. to his rival,
having stopped campaigning in the state several weeks ago.

In the 2004 election the Bush campaign used "microtargeting" to find
significantly more black votes in Ohio than he got in 2000.

McCain is using the reverse strategy with the Armenian vote. Rather
than teasing out additional votes wherever he can, McCain has
inexplicably chosen to leave 44 Electoral College votes on the table
by writing off Armenian-American voters in Fla. and Mich. And it’s
not like he can afford to lose them – especially in Fla., where
Bush has also managed to alienate another important voting bloc,
Cuban-Americans.

As that old rhyme has it, "for the want of a nail … the horse
was lost." By overlooking – indeed, disrespecting – this seemingly
insignificant ethnic group, McCain is extending a Bush legacy that
will haunt Republicans for years to come.

Note: The Stiletto writes about politics and other stuff at The
Stiletto Blog, chosen an Official Honoree in the Political Blogs
category by the judges of the 12th Annual Webby Awards (the Oscars
of the online universe) along with CNN Political Ticker, Swampland
(Time magazine) and The Caucus (The New York Times).

BIA, Turkey
Nov 2 2008

State’s Security Hijacks The Freedom Of Expression

11 individuals, 77 of them journalists, were tried in 73 different
cases for their opinions and reporting rights violations by the
state. 36 of them were tried under article 301. Crimes against
journalists go unpunished and military based censorship is increasing.

Bia news center – Ä°stanbul
02-11-2008
Erol Ã-NDEROÄ?LU – [email protected]

BIA Freedom of Expression Desk has published its `Media Observation
Report’ for the period of July-August-September. The Desk has been
informing the public regularly about the rights violations regarding
the media, the reporters and the freedom of expression since 2000. In
addition to the international freedom of expression institutions such
as IFEX, RSF, CPJ, Article XIX, the Media Observation Reports has
become an important source for the European Commission and the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe AGÄ°T as
well.

To the arrangements that limit the freedom of communication was added
No. 5651 Law on Internet Crimes, after the Law on Struggle against
Terror, the Turkish Penal Code and the Law for Protection of
Atatürk.

The global vide sharing site youtube.com has been banned for six
months now for having videos insulting to the memory of
Atatürk, founder of the Turkish Republic. The internet site of
dailymotion was banned for one month. Geocities.com has been banned
for eight months. The internet site of gundemonline.com was banned by
a court order, too.

Internet censorship is widespread, the judiciary is following Oktar’s
lead Creationist Adnan Oktar’s `insult to one’s personality’
complaints led the courts to ban the internet sites egitim-sen.org.tr
(of the education and scientific workers union), turandursun.com (of
Turan Dursun) and anarsist.org. The internet users are raising their
voices against closing of the whole sites because of one particular
content.

BIA Media Observation Desk’s July-August-September 2008 Media
Monitoring Report determined that 116 people, 77 of whom journalists,
are being prosecuted for expressing their opinions, reporting rights
violations by the state or condemning such violations in 76 different
cases.

According to the 32 page report, daily Yeni Å?afak was attacked,
Turan AktaÅ?, reporter for daily Taraf, was manhandled by the
police and the internet sites antenna.org and ortakpayda.org were
hacked.

A reader of daily Birgün’s, Tutku Türkol, was taken into
custody and harassed. Journalists Mustafa Balbay and Ufuk
Büyükçelebi were taken into custody in connection
with the Ergenekon investigation.

Writer Murat CoÅ?kun received prison sentence of one year and
fifteen days for committing the crime of `provoking hostility among
people’ with his book titled `Acının Dili Kadın’
(Woman, Language of Pain), published by Peri Publishing in January
2002 with. He is still in prison. Local journalist Hacı
BoÄ?atekin of Gerger, who was in prison for 109 days after
arrested for his critical publications against the local prosecutor,
Kurdish politician Mahmut Alınak, who was arrested for
proposing Musa Anter’s name for a street in the city of Tunceli, and
unionist Meryem Ã-zsöÄ?üt, who was arrested for
taking part in Kevser Mızrak’s commemoration, were released.

Attacks against the journalists go unpunished, Dink’s murder trial is
in its second year

Discussing the cases of the 220 people, the report presents the
violations under the following headings: `Attacks and threats’,
`Custodies and arrests’, `Cases and attempts’, `Arrangements and
seeking of rights’, `European Court of Human Rights’, `Reactions to
censorship’, and `RTÃ`K implementations’.

The developments in Dink’s case shows that these kind of political
murders cannot be solved only through judicial means, without the
support of the political will.

The police officers who broke the arm of Ali Deniz Uslu, reporter of
daily Cumhuriyet, and beat Esra Açıkgöz did not
appear before court. In BeytüÅ?Å?ebap in the
eastern Turkey, DHA reporter Emin Bal was convicted of insult after he
filing a complaint against the police officers who manhandled him.

Censorship of every type for the sake of `security’
Not used to be questioned about its operations, the General Staff
takes the questions about DaÄ?lıca and
Aktütün ambushes as matters of strategy.

Military Prosecutor’s Office asked daily Taraf to turn in the
documents used for the article titled `DaÄ?lıca Ambush
Was Known’. The court banned the internet site gundemonline.com and
suspended the newspaper Alternatif for one month for publishing
statements by the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).

Hayat TV’s broadcasting was cut by the Türksat authorities
following a warning by the Security Branch of the Ministry of Interior
on the grounds that it was aiding the pro-Kurdish Roj TV. The
`mistake’ was fixed three weeks later.

Gökçer TahincioÄ?lu and Kemal
GöktaÅ?, who had made a news report about the power of
tapping the telephones the Police Department, the National
Intelligence Organization and the Gendarmerie were given, are on trial
for `publishing confidential documents’ and `making the judge a
target’.

The Prime Minister targets the media and the humor
Targeting president of the DoÄ?an Media Group Aydın
DoÄ?an and unable to control himself, Prime Minister
ErdoÄ?an attacked the International Press Institute (IPI) and
the World Association of Press Councils (WAPC) for their statements
defending the press freedom.

Upon Prime Minister’s complaint, Malih KaÅ?kar of the newspaper
Milas Ã-nder (Milas Leader) was sentenced to prison for telling a
joke in his article. Likewise, weekly comic magazine Leman is sued for
damages for making fun of Prime Minister’s sentence that `We did not
take the science of the West, but its immorality.’

36 people are on trial for article 301
While the cases filed under article 301 are sent to the Ministry of
Justice for `permission to prosecute’, that the article remains in
effect leads to new cases. The Great Union Party (BBP) administrators
filed a complaint against journalist Ahmet Altan and Adnan Demir,
daily Taraf’s manager in-charge, for recognizing `the Armenian
Genocide’. Retired inspector Niyazi Uslay’s criticizing the military
received conviction.

In the last three months, 15 journalists and 36 individuals have been
prosecuted under article 301 in 18 cases. The Ministry of Justice
granted permission for the prosecution of Temel Demirer under article
301 for stating that Hrant Dink was murdered `for recognizing the
genocide.’ 22 individuals in 15 cases were being prosecuted under
article 301 in the same period of the last year.

Five cases were filed against thirteen people for `influencing the
court’ with their articles, reports and statements. Two of these cases
resulted in acquittal. The six journalists from Batman who criticized
the operation that resulted in the death of Mizgin Ã-zbek are
facing imprisonment.

Bülent Ersoy, Perihan MaÄ?den, Gökhan
Gençay, Ä°brahim Ã?eÅ?mecioÄ?lu,
Birgül Ã-zbarıÅ? and Yasin YetiÅ?gen are
on trial for defending conscientious objection and being antiwar.

Eight are accused in `hate’ cases
Eight people are on trial for the charge of `provoking hatred and
agitation’ in five cases. DÄ°HA reporters Oktay Candemir and
Ercan Ã-ksüz are on trial for their interview titled
`Witness of the Zilan Massacre talked’. Twelve people were prosecuted
for the same crime last year.

Threat of 75 year imprisonment and half a million euro in damages for
`insult’
In three months, 36 individuals, 28 of them journalists, were
prosecuted in 23 cases for the charge of insult. They faced 75 years
of imprisonment and payment of about half a million euro in damages.

Muhittin Zenit, intelligence officer on duty in Trabzon before the
murder of Hrant Dink, sued bianet.org for 12.500 euro and NTV for
45.000 euro. Feyzullah Aslan of the Police Department is asking from
writer Fikret Otyam and journalist Ä°dris Ã-zyol 10.000 euro.

Commemorating Deniz GezmiÅ? is a `crime’
Commemorating Deniz gezmiÅ?, Mahir Ã?ayan and
Ä°brahim Kaypakkaya is still a crime after 35 years: Sibel
Bulut, daily Atılım’s manager in-charge, will be tried
for `praising the crime and the criminal.’ Ten individuals, two of
them journalists, were tried in seven cases in accordance with article
215 of the Turkish Penal Code.

The Kurdish problem is banned as a news topic
Istanbul’s 10th High Criminal Court has fined daily Hurriyet’s
reporter Sebati Karakurt and managers Hasan Kılıç
and Necdet Tatlıcan fifty thousand euro for the interview
conducted with the PKK four years age, which was construed as
`publishing the comments of the terrorist organization’ and `doing
propaganda work for the PKK’.

Journalist Cengiz Kapmaz received a ten month prison sentence for his
interview with Orhan DoÄ?an, which was construed as `doing
propaganda work for the PKK.’

Kurdish politicians Orhan MiroÄ?lu was sentenced to
auto-censorship of five years for speaking Kurdish while he was an
independent deputy candidate for the Parliament.

The only good news¦
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sentenced Turkey to paying
6500 euro in damages in three cases. In the same period last year,
14500 euro was paid to 32 individuals.(EÃ-/EK/TB)

ARMENIA NOT PLANNING TO TOLERATE TURKISH PERFORMANCE
VARDAN GRIGORYAN

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
01 Nov 08
Armenia

Two months have already passed after the visit of Turkish President
Abdullah Gyul to Yerevan but no essential progress has been recorded in
Armenian-Turkish relations so far.

In contrast to that the Turkish leadership showers sweet words
regarding the `progress’ of Armenian – Turkish relations and the
`friendship’ between the two countries, by totally misleading the
international community.

Moreover in some European countries they trust Turkey’s false advocacy
so much that they have started to think about making the process of the
integration of our neighbor into the European structures swifter. The
matters took such a turn that the Turkish diplomats have started to
threaten the European counselors regarding the recognition of the
Armenian Genocide, saying that thus they will spoil Armenian-Turkish
`honeymoon’.

So it turns out that the relations between the two countries have
improved by words but far not by actions.

Not only does Turkey continue to put forward its famous preconditions
for the opening of Armenian-Turkish border and the solution of other
issues, but it has also started to make evident efforts to have a hand
in the settlement of Karabakh conflict. But why shouldn’t they do so,
if besides being Azerbaijan’s `elder brother’ they are also our
`sincere friend’.

Moreover, during the recent times Turkey is trying to shift the before
mentioned performance from the European stages to the US.

Prime Minister Erdoghan’s envoys announced in the USA that the
recognition of the Armenian Genocide would allegedly have a bad impact
on Turkey’s efforts to improve relations with Armenia.

It is evident that here we deal with a great example of a performance
of `establishing friendly relations’ which has found its fundamental
groundings in the interview given by the Turkish President Abdullah
Gyul to one of the French TV channels, where he separated `Armenian
Cause’ from `Armenia’s Issue’. But saying `Armenian Cause’ Abdullah
Gyul didn’t mean the autonomy and later the independence of the West
Armenia, which started in 1877, but `the treachery of the Armenians’
during the First World War, to which it turned out that the Turks
responded by `deporting the Armenians to more secure places’ and far
not the Genocide.

The Turkish President believes our compatriots living in Diaspora are
the before mentioned `traitors’ and he doesn’t consider Armenia a
threat or an enemy for Turkey.

Then a question arises here, `In that case what was the sense of the
political hurry-scurry for the improvement of Armenian-Turkish
relations? In our view after the military clash between Russia and
Georgia, Armenia and its leadership didn’t have any chance to avoid the
great regional maneuvers.’

By not joining the actions of its ally against Georgia and meanwhile
appearing in a tough geo-political situation Armenia couldn’t avoid at
least the exhorts to start a dialogue with Turkey. So the whole problem
is that our diplomacy and especially our foreign policy were not very
well prepared for the Turkish performance about `establishing friendly
relations’.

At the moment the situation is changing and our Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandyan has already announced to the world that, `we are not
interested in continuing the process for the sake of the process, to
meet several times in two, there, four years and to create an
impression that the process is on.

But in our view this quite correct estimation given to the created
situation must be clarified for the international community, by means
of clear messages addressed to the USA and EU member countries. By the
lowest methods Turkey is trying to use the already started
Armenian-Turkish dialogue and the quite sincere expectations of the
international community linked with this process, aimed at hiding their
own crimes and holding the process of the international recognition of
Armenian Genocide, then Armenia must in its turn put forward the
following resolution: `The sooner the Armenian Genocide is recognized,
the sooner Armenian-Turkish relations will be improved.’

Moreover, if in future Turkey keeps his promise given to Azerbaijan and
tries to include Karabakh issue in the agenda of the Security Council,
as a newly elected non-permanent member, then Armenia will have to
immediately appeal to the same organization and estimate this process
as a preparation of a new genocide towards the Armenian inhabitants of
Nagorno Karabakh by the two countries that have committed the Armenian
Genocide.

Armenia can also use Turkey’s possible action and demand clear
guarantees of excluding the repetition of Armenian Genocide, from the
UN Security Council.

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
October 30, 2008

Russian Government Hosts Mediation Talks Between Armenian and Azeri
Governments

by Grace Annan

Yesterday, the Russian government announced in a statement that it
would host peace talks between the Armenian and Azeri governments in
Moscow on 2 November. President Dmitry Medvedev will mediate between
the Armenian President Ilham Aliyev and his counterpart Serzh
Sargsyan; Medvedev hopes to achieve some tangible progress on the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Significance: The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has gained in
international prominence once again since the war in Georgia in August
2008. Armenian and Azeri state officials continue to argue over the
status of the Armenia-supported breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
It is in the heart of Azerbaijan but mostly populated by Armenians;
its situation mirrors that of the south-western part of Azerbaijan,
which is separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by a significant piece
of land belonging to Armenia. Recent events give hope for a return to
constructive negotiation between the Armenian and Azeri governments:
Turkey, which holds good relations with Azerbaijan, recently carefully
rekindled its diplomatic ties with Armenia. This can be considered a
minor miracle given previous relations. Ever since the war in Georgia,
the Turkish government has increased its promotion of a Caucasian
Union (see Turkey: 18 August 2008: ). The Kremlin is keen to tap into
the current thaw between Turkey and Armenia, not least in order to
improve its image in relation to the Caucasus, which took a major dent
on the international stage during and after the war in Georgia. The
emphasis of the talks on 2 November is strictly on the fact of them
taking place rather than any anticipated result. They may not yield
much result as neither Aliyev nor Sargsyan are willing to reconsider
their stance on Nagorno-Karabakh in the near future.

Haykakan Zhamanak , Armenia
Nov 1 2008

The consequences will be unpredictable

As we reported yesterday, maps of ceding the liberated territories
[seven Azerbaijani districts around Nagornyy Karabakh], which form
Nagornyy Karabakh’s security belt, are in the hands of a few Armenian
top military officers.

A veteran of the Karabakh war, French-Armenian Sargis Hatspanyan, who
has familiarized himself with these maps yesterday [31 October], told
Haykakan Zhamanak that there are three options that some people want
to make us sign. Russia is the author of one option, the USA has drawn
up the second one, and Europe offers the third option on behalf of
France. The Defence Ministry, as it appears, carried out an unofficial
a "line-of-duty investigation" yesterday [31 October] in order to find
out where the information was "leaked" from. When we asked the Defence
Ministry spokesman Seyran Shakhsuvaryan to comment on these options,
he said: "Where are these maps, and who are those top officials? When
you name them, I will tell." Shakhsuvaryan added: "I have not seen
anything like that, and there are 50 top officers, none of them have
seen such a thing."

[Passage omitted: Shahsuvaryan continues to deny that such documents
are available and that there are officers who have seen them.]

The head of the information department of the Nagornyy Karabakh
president’s administration, David Babayan, told us yesterday that,
when speaking about concessions, it is necessary to by all means take
into consideration one circumstance – mutual concessions should have
comparable standards.

Babayan said: "We cannot give land in exchange for a mere promise or
even in exchange for opening of the road, because they can close the
road tomorrow, and we cannot take back the territories, if we return
them. Also, there are territories on which the future of the Armenian
people, both in Armenia and Artsakh [Karabakh], depends. The talk is
particularly about Kalbacar [Azerbaijani district separating Nagornyy
Karabakh from Armenia, seized by Armenians in 1993]. Eighty-five per
cent of the water resources of the former Nagornyy Karabakh Autonomous
Region start here, like two vital points for Armenia – Arpa and
Vorotan [rivers] , which prevent the [Armenian] lake Sevan prom from
drying out. And lake Sevan accounts for 80 per cent of Armenia’s water
resources. Therefore, please understand, if this territory is
influenced by any hostile aims, the whole Armenian people will face a
terror, and the results will be unpredictable."

Babayan said that they understand that there should be concessions,
but this should be in the framework of comparable categories.
Territories versus promises is an unacceptable and impossible thing
for them.

"Moreover, we also have territories under Azerbaijan’s control. One
should speak about them as well. If we allow even a very small
incorrect approach in the Karabakh issue, the consequences will be
unpredictable. War is not beneficial for anyone at present, because
no-one knows how it will end, and who will win," Babayan said.