POISED FOR A COMEBACK?
by Emil Danielyan, a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.
Transitions on Line
>From Eurasianet
Aug 31 2007
Czech Republic
Levon Ter-Petrosian, who was forced out as Armenia’s president a
decade ago, is said to be considering a presidential bid in 2008.
YEREVAN, Armenia | Levon Ter-Petrosian, Armenia’s former president
widely acclaimed in the West for his conciliatory line on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is considering returning to active politics
and, in particular, contesting a forthcoming presidential election.
His comeback would mark a dramatic turn in the unfolding presidential
race which the Armenian authorities hope will formalize a planned
handover of power from President Robert Kocharian to Prime Minister
Serzh Sarkisian in 2008. The issue has dominated the Armenian political
discourse and press commentary for the past several weeks.
Sarkisian’s chances of succeeding Kocharian received a massive boost
when his Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) swept to a landslide
victory in the May parliamentary elections. The crushing defeat
suffered by the country’s fragmented opposition led to suggestions
that the outcome of the Armenian presidential ballot, due early next
year, is a forgone conclusion.
Ter-Petrosian allies now say that the 62-year-old former president
is the only politician capable of defeating Sarkisian. They point to
his domestic and international stature and policy agenda which they
regard as the recipe for ending Armenia’s regional isolation.
Skeptics believe, however, that Ter-Petrosian is too unpopular to
return to power as many Armenians continue to associate him with
severe socioeconomic hardship of the early 1990s.
Photo by Joe Pineiro A historian and philologist by training,
Ter-Petrosian rose to prominence in 1988 as one of the leaders of a
popular movement for Armenia’s unification with Nagorno-Karabakh,
then part of Soviet Azerbaijan. The movement gradually embraced a
pro-democracy and pro-independence agenda, ousting Soviet Armenia’s
last Communist government in parliamentary elections held in 1990. A
year later, less than three months before the break-up of the Soviet
Union, Ter-Petrosian was elected the country’s first president with
more than 85 percent of the vote.
EARLY ’90s SETBACKS
Much of that popular support was gone in the next few years, following
the outbreak of a bitter war with Azerbaijan for Karabakh and armed
conflicts elsewhere in the South Caucasus. The conflicts effectively
cut off Armenia from the outside world, causing its economy to shrink
by more than half in 1992 and 1993 and leaving a large part of its
population jobless. The economic collapse was compounded by a severe
energy crisis which meant that most Armenians had electricity for
only a few hours a day for several consecutive years. Many of them
blamed their post-Soviet leadership for their suffering, dismissing
its assurances that they are paying the price of the Armenian military
victory over Azerbaijan.
Ter-Petrosian’s perceived aloofness and tolerance of growing government
corruption is believed to have been another factor behind the popular
anger. The reversal of his fortunes was further exposed in September
1996 when he sent tanks to the streets of the capital Yerevan to quell
violent opposition protests against the official results of a reputedly
rigged presidential election that gave victory to Ter-Petrosian.
Sixteen months later he was forced to step down by key members of
his administration, notably then Prime Minister Robert Kocharian and
Interior Minister Serzh Sarkisian, who opposed his advocacy of more
concessions to Azerbaijan. The hardliners openly disagreed with his
belief that Armenia’s economic development is impossible without a
Karabakh settlement.
Ter-Petrosian has rarely spoken in public since then. He reportedly
considered participating in the last presidential election held in
2003 but decided to continue his self-imposed retirement. Earlier
this summer, the reclusive ex-president began touring various regions
of the country and meeting local activists of his Armenian National
Movement (ANM) party behind closed doors. The meetings, which are
still going on, have reportedly focused on his participation in the
upcoming presidential vote, with ANM activists pleading with him to
enter the fray.
MEETINGS WITH U.S. DIPLOMAT
According to members of Ter-Petrosian’s inner circle, he hears similar
calls from various politicians, businesspeople and even government
officials who they say visit his Yerevan house on a practically daily
basis. Also visiting Ter-Petrosian in late August was Rudolf Perina,
the U.S. charge d’affaires in Yerevan. Neither Ter-Petrosian, nor
the U.S. Embassy released any details of the meeting.
"He is thinking about running for president very seriously, more
seriously than he did in 2003," said a longtime close associate of
Ter-Petrosian. "But he has not yet communicated his decision to us."
ANM leaders have already predicted that his answer will be positive.
"I am confident that Ter-Petrosian will run," the chairman of the
former ruling party, Ararat Zurabian, told reporters on 17 August.
His deputy Aram Manukian said separately that Ter-Petrosian will
announce that decision "in the second half of September." He said
the ANM is holding consultations on the issue with "various political
forces."
Apart from the ANM, only Armenia’s most radical opposition party,
Republic, and several other, smaller opposition groups have publicly
voiced support for Ter-Petrosian so far. None of them is represented
in the Armenian parliament, though. The two opposition parties that
won seats in the National Assembly are led by ambitious individuals
who have long been harboring presidential ambitions and are therefore
unlikely to throw their weight behind Ter-Petrosian. Those parties as
well as other opposition heavyweights, some of whom were at loggerheads
with the ANM government, have sounded lukewarm about his comeback.
PAINFUL MEMORIES
Analysts believe that the key question for Ter-Petrosian is whether
he can make a strong showing in the election. Even some of his ardent
supporters feel that he still lacks sufficient popular support. Aram
Abrahamian, a former Ter-Petrosian spokesman who now edits the Yerevan
daily Aravot, warned in a 21 August editorial that painful memories of
the early 1990s still hold a powerful grip on Armenians’ consciousness.
Similar arguments have also been made by representatives of the
government camp who seem, at least in public, untroubled by the
prospect of Ter-Petrosian challenging Sarkisian for the Armenian
presidency. Galust Sahakian, a senior RPA lawmaker, said on 15 August
that a Ter-Petrosian comeback would force the ruling party to change
its electoral strategy. "But the outcome will be the same," Sahakian
told a news conference, predicting a Sarkisian win.
Ter-Petrosian loyalists counter that many Armenians have reconsidered
their negative attitudes towards their first president and now
rate him more highly than their current leaders. They also claim
that Ter-Petrosian enjoys the hidden backing of many members of the
country’s post-Soviet government and business elite who owe their
fortunes to him and are unhappy with Kocharian and Sarkisian. As his
close associate put it, "If Ter-Petrosian’s electoral chances are slim,
then why is he now the number one topic of conversation in Armenia?"