Author: Tamamian Anna

UNRECOGNIZABLE ARMENIA IN A YEAR

Lragir
Jan 21 2008
Armenia

On the first day of the election campaign on January 21 after Arthur
Baghdasaryan and Artashes Geghamyan the presidential candidate from the
ARF Dashnaktsutyun Vahan Hovanisyan presented his election program at
the Armenia Marriott Hotel. Unlike the other two candidates, the hall
was more musical. Songs praising the ARF Dashnaktsutyun were sung,
and instead of a sitting presentation of the election program the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun had chosen a more rally-like option but inside a hall.

Before Vahan Hovanisyan had entered the hall the head of his election
headquarters Armen Rustamyan made a speech. He stated that the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun is resolved to fight for a fair election. Besides,
justice lies at the basis of Vahan Hovanisyan’s election program. The
presidential candidate Vahan Hovanisyan says: "Our country lacks
justice." According to him, we had achievements in the years of
independence , we proved viable in blockade but now we have reached
a point when we no longer move toward progress. "The survey of
both the rate of growth and democratic reforms suggests that we are
approaching the verge where regress starts. While our neighbors have
more opportunities for progress thanks to their geographical position
or other conditions, we must rely on the abilities of our people,"
says Vahan Hovanisyan. According to him, the Armenian people have
immense potential, and Armenian people succeed in every sphere of life
everywhere. "They succeed everywhere except their homeland because
everywhere they deal with the law which is equal for everyone, in
Armenia they do not," Vahan Hovanisyan says.

He assures that he will guarantee equal opportunities in Armenia
together with his team. The team which Vahan Hovanisyan invited to
the stage are known to the society: Hrant Margaryan, minister Levon
Mkrtichyan and Aghvan Vardanyan, members of parliament from the
ARF Dashnaktsutyun, governor. Vahan Hovanisyan plans to fulfill his
pledges together with this team. And he pledges a lot. For instance,
he pledges legitimate elections.

"Unfortunately, a vicious model has emerged in Armenia when powerful
economic clans are government, and the mechanisms of acquiring
their wealth are known to us and occurred in the early 1990s, unfair
privatization, those clans have seized political power. Monopolies
in economy transformed into political monopolies. A situation has
occurred when the minority, the opposition is invariably viewed on
the other side of the barricades, as a disturbing element, a foe,
and the government uses every opportunity to weaken it and corner
it," says the presidential candidate from the ARF Dashnaktsutyun,
promising to tackle this phenomenon as well.

According to Vahan Hovanisyan, if there is a monopoly, it cannot
bring about development, new economic approaches because a monopolist
does not need them since he has no competitors, his competitor has
been beaten. Vahan Hovanisyan thinks the Armenian government should
foster the development of local production because an economy based
on imports threatens national security, especially with such a fragile
transport communication as ours.

The candidate of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun also states that the program
that the ARF Dashnaktsutyun had presented in the parliamentary election
was described by their opponents as populist or romantic.

Later, however, the government took the steps included in the
program. And it would be much more effective if the authors of the
program carried out those activities, Vahan Hovanisyan says. He
thinks his program is as realistic as the program presented in
the parliamentary election. According to Vahan Hovanisyan, this
program differs from other programs: parts of it are found in other
programs, whereas in the program of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun all this
is interrelated and systemized. Armenia will change unrecognizably .

This is what Vahan Hovanisyan says.

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Jan 16 2008

Observer mission of CIS interparliamentary assembly to conduct
interim monitoring in Armenia

YEREVAN, January 16. /ARKA/. An observer mission of the
Interparliamentary Assembly, Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS), is to conduct interim monitoring on the threshold of the
presidential election in Armenia early in February.

The Public Relations Department, RA Parliament, reports that, at his
meeting with Speaker of the RA Parliament Tigran Torosyan, Secretary
General of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly Mikhail Krotov
reported that a 10-member expert group headed by Anatoly Torshin is
to conduct the monitoring in Armenia.

Krotov reported that the observer mission also plans to hold meetings
with Armenia’s leaders, Chairman of the RA Central Electoral
Commission and the presidential candidates that are willing to meet
with mission members.

The presidential election is to be held in Armenia on February 19,
2008. -0–

CLU CHAIRMAN HRANT KHACHATRIAN TO MAKE STATEMENT ON VICTORY OR POLITICAL STATEMENT ON JANUARY 21

Noyan Tapan
Jan 17 2007

YEREVAN, JANUARY 17, NOYAN TAPAN. On January 21, Hrant Khachatrian,
the Chairman of the Constitutional Law Union (CLU) party, will make
a statement on victory or a political statement on January 21. He
said this at the January 17 press conference. Before that, by 15:00
of January 17, the CLU Chairman expects to hear a statement from the
authorities about the issue of which state structure is responsible for
the actions carried out by the Police in the party’s office building
on January 15. Hrant Khachatrian considers the actions of the Police
carried out in "peaceful conditions" as absolutely illegal and having
no legal grounds.

It should be mentioned that according to the statement made by CLU
Chairman Hrant Khachatrian the day before, on January 15, with
the motivation of obligatory execution of the court decison, in
consequence of operative actoions, the locks on the party’s office
doors were broken and the entrance door of the CLU office, the room
of editor-in-chief of party’s official newspaper Iravunk and the room
of the publicity department were handed over to the control of Hayk
Babukhanian, the Director of the Zaruhi Publishing House LTD.

According to the CLU Chairman, party’s former Vice-Chairman Hayk
Babukhanian pursues purely a material purpose by declaring that he is
the party Chairman and he will return the party’s office: the party’s
office located in Y. Koghbatsi, 50a in the territory of Yerevan’s
small center, costs 500 thousand dollars, the party has a certificate
of ownership of almost the half of the territory, 240.8 sq.m. It has
already become known that the territory has appeared in the development
zone and the Local Developer organization has won the tender announced
for the territory. The party Chairman will conduct negotiations for
the purpose of receiving an adequate compensation for the territory.

According to the CLU Chairman, by actions conducted the day before
have a political implication: CLU stated that in the forthcoming
presidential elections it will support Vazgen Manukian, the Chairman
of the National Democratic Union, and H. Babukhanian will support
any candidate except Levon Ter-Petrosian, up to RA Prime Minister
Serge Sargsian.

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Jan 14 2008

Head of Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Community Considers Minsk
Group’s Efforts to be in Vain
14.01.08 18:52

Azerbaijan, Baku, 14 January / Òrend corr E. Huseynli / The head of
the Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh community Nizami Bahmanov is sure
that the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chairs to achieve some
agreement before elections will be vain.

At the beginning of December 2007, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group (France, USA and Russia), who in 1994 undertook mediation in
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, for the first time
submitted written offers on the settlement of the conflict to the
Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

On 13 January the co-chairs Bernard Facie, Matthew Bryza and Yuri
Merzlakov began their next visit to the region. On their arrival
Bryza said to journalists that an oral agreement may be achieved on
the conflict before the presidential elections in Armenia and
Azerbaijan.

Armenia will hold its presidential elections on 18 February and
Azerbaijan will hold its presidential elections in October.

According to Bahmanov, Baku will make it clear whether there is a
necessity to the continuation of peaceful negotiations this year.

At the reporting back meeting the Azerbaijani President honoured 2008
as the year of negotiations. He urged Armenia to vacate the occupied
Azerbaijani regions – Aghdam, Fizuli, Jabrayil, Gubadli, Kalbajar,
and Lachin. According to the President, the issue of the status may
be discussed after the internally displaced persons come back to
Shusha and Nagorno-Karabakh. This year Azerbaijan will consider the
peaceful settlement and will make a decision.

The conflict between the two countries of the South Caucasus began in
1988, due to the Armenian territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
Since 1992, the Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20% of
Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven
neighbouring districts. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a
ceasefire agreement which ended the active hostilities. The Co-Chairs
of the OSCE Minsk Group ( Russia, France, and the US) are currently
holding the peaceful negotiations.

Azat Artsakh Tert, Nagorno Karabakh Republic
Jan 14 2008

Press conference of the Minister of Social Maintenance

Everybody will touch the changes

On January 10th, a press conference of the NKR Minister of Social
Maintenance N.Azatian took place, devoted to briefing of the results
of 2007 and marked programs of 2002. `We can say, that we have
finished the year rather successfully. The main problems, having a
relation to social sphere, which had been foreseen by the
pre-election program of the NKR President, were basically reflected
in the state budget of 2008′,- noted the Minister, assuring that
henceforth social problems will continue to remain in the focus of
the state’s attention.

Tenfold increase during ten years?

An increase of the state budget of 2008 compiles 29 per cent, and
expenses of social sphere have increased by 57 per cent.
`By the state budget of 2008, expenses directed to social sphere
are more, than the expenses of the state budget of 2003 on the
whole’, – summerized N.Azatian.
Returning to the problems of pensions, N.Azatian assured, that
such increase, which had been stated in the state budget of 2008, is
recorded first time. And the widest sections of the society will feel
it.
So in 2008 wages will compile 23800 drams, increasing by 68 per
cent in comparison with the previous year, and social pensions – 9000
drams (an increase – 60 per cent).

Participation of journalists is also expected

In 2008 the main problems of the state policy carried out in
social sphere, will be a consistent increase of living standard of
population, an improvement of demographical condition, providing of
young families with state assistance and etc. Besides the foreseen, a
number of programs will be also realized by an assistance of
benefactors. The Minister promised to speak about such and other
questions more minutely with the representatives of Mass-media during
future meetings, which according to her, will take a periodical turn.

CBA FORECASTS 5.4% INFLATION FOR 2008

YEREVAN, JANUARY 15, NOYAN TAPAN. According to forecasts of the Central
Bank of Armenia (CBA), by the version of the unchanged level of
interest rates, inflation will make 5.4% in Armenia in the 12-month
period following December 2007 and 6.3% in the second quarter of 2008.
The base scenario of inflation until the end of the second quarter 2008
includes the version that a growth in prices of bread products, butter
and vegetable oil will contribute to the growth of the cumulative
consumer price index by 3.8%, while the growth of gas prices due to the
supposed end of budgetary subsidizing will contribute to the growth of
this index by 1.2%. These forecasts were announced at the December 29
sitting of the CBA Board.

According to the CBA press service, by CBA’s forecasts, the formation
of higher international oil and food prices (including grain prices)
than is expected may contribute to higher actual inflation than the
forecast index, while the increase of oil prices will depend on both
geopolitical and external economic developments. Besides, it may be
also contributed by a higher than forecast growth of the consumption
component in the overall demand and further positive deviation from the
balanced level of consumption, as well as by higher than expected
growth rates of crediting of the economy.

The registration of a lower actual inflation index than is forecast may
be contributed by an increase in foreign currency amounts of exports
(as a result of higher than forecast prices of base metals), as well as
by a fall in prices of imported goods under conditions of greater
capital inflow, as a result of appreciation of the dram.

At the same time, developments in the agricultural sector which mainly
depend on climatic conditions may involve risks of both a fall and rise
in prices.

Taking into account the developments in the fourth quarter of 2007 and
the CBA’s forecasts for the further 12-month period, the CBA Board
registered that despite some stabilization of oil and food prices, the
inflation pressures from the external environment remained at the end
of the fourth quarter of 2007 and will remain in the forecast period.
In case of absence of unexpected shocks in the external environment,
these pressures will be milder than in the past period. The CBA Board
also stated that the impact of the internal environment created smaller
inflation pressures than was forecast – in the fourth quarter of 2007,
while it is possible that combined with most expanding tax and
budgetary policy, the high growth rates of private consumption will
increase inflation pressures to some extent in the forecast period. In
these conditions the CBA Board still sees risks in ensuring the 2008
target inflation index.

At the same time the CBA Board discussed the seasonal manifestations,
which are typical of Armenia’s economy and financial sector and are
most pronounced at the beginning of a year, particularly a sharp
decline in demand for money in January, due to which a rise in interest
rates cannot have the desired effect on interest rates in the interbank
market. It was underlined that the consistent tightening of the
conditions of the monetary and credit policy by the CBA in recent
months allows to refrain from raising the interest rates at the given
moment.

Under conditions of various opinions about reduction of inflation
pressures from the external environment, the deviation of inflation
from the central position of the target interval, and the possible
scenarios of further changes in interest rates, the CBA Board discussed
the options of either raising the CBA refinancing interest rate or
leaving it unchanged.

As a result, at the December 29 sitting the CBA Board made a decision
to leave the CBA refinancing interest rate unchanged – 5.75%. The pawn
credit and deposit interest rates were fixed at 8.75% and 2.75%
respectively.

At the same time the CBA Board expressed a willingness to be consistent
in the issue of correcting the interest rates if inflation pressures
from the internal and external environments do not decline.

Peter Semneby: The South Caucasus is getting closer to the European
border
14.01.2008 15:29

Tatul Hakobyan
"Radiolur"

The `Enlarged Black Sea Region: Prospects of International and Regional
Security’ international scientific conference started in Yerevan today.
The event has been organized by the Armenian International Economic
Policy Research Group assisted by the OSCE, NATO, the Kingdom of
Netherlands and the Union of Alumnae of the Yerevan State University.
The two-day conference features political and public figures, analysts,
scholars, political scientists from a number of countries, including
Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Addressing the conference, EU Special Representative for the South
Caucasus Peter Semneby said the unsolved conflicts which are the
heritage of the collapse of the Soviet Union, double the challenges
existing in the region.

`The unsolved conflicts hamper the stability in the region and in some
cases present concern with regard to the possible escalation in the
future. Despite the unexpected economic growth in the region, the South
Caucasus is still associated with problems and conflicts.’

The most complex conflict in the region is that of Nagorno Karabakh. In
response to Radiolur question, Peter Semneby said one should never get
disappointed. `I still continue to hope that there will be progress in
the direction of the Karabakh conflict resolution. At this point
diplomacy continues and I hope that it will yield results. I hope that
the presidential elections will be a good opportunity for raising the
question.’

EU Special Representative Peter Semneby declared that after Romania’s
and Bulgaria’s accession to the European Union, the Black Sea Region
has acquired a special importance for the EU. He noted that the
countries of the South Caucasus have got closer to the EU border,
becoming full neighbors of the European Union.

According to Mr. Semneby, the development of relations with countries
of the South Caucasus is one of the priorities of the EU. The European
diplomat emphasized `the necessity of diversification of transport and
energy routes, where an important strategic role belongs to the
countries of the South Caucasus situated on the crossroads of Europe,
Central Asia and the Middle East.’

Peter Semneby called the Black Sea region `the place where world powers
meet to solve the issues of fighting organized crime, illegal
migration, opening of closed borders and unsolved conflicts.’

ARMENIA FUND RECONSTRUCTS ARMENIAN CHURCH IN TBILISI

Lragir
Jan 9 2008
Armenia

200-year-old St. Etchmiadzin Church of Tbilisi had been through
challenging times. Frequent earthquakes and construction of the
underground in Tbilisi caused more damage to the already fragile
building. In order to halt further progression of the damage, the
Argentina affiliate of Armenia Fund and the U.S. West Coast diocese of
Holy See Etchmiadzin launched the building’s reinforcement project,
which was completed in February 2007 and resulted in considerable
improvements in the building’s state. Within the second stage of the
project, which started in early November 2007, internal refurbishment
and more reinforcement works are being carried out. The reconstruction
will be complete at the end of 2008, Armenia Fund reports.

"ONCE YOU TAKE A BRIBE YOU BECOME A HOSTAGE"

A1+
09 January, 2008

Leader of the People’s Party (ZhK) and presidential contender Tigran
Karapetian is confident of his victory in the presidential election.

Tigran Karapetian considers himself an alternative and states that
"his electorate is the conservative part of the society, adherent
to the principles of justice." According to the ZhK leader, he "is
the only candidate who represents the interests of this stratum of
the society although there are many who defend the interests of the
displeased electorate."

Tigran Karapetian expects tense struggle during the election and
calls on voters to refuse election bribes.

"Once you take election bribes you bound yourself and become a
hostage," this is one of Karapetian’s slogans. People will get
acquainted with the other 19 slogans during the election campaign. The
party has already set up pre-election headquarters. The number of
regional structures exceeds 100.

Tigran Karapetian noted that he is not going to offend any of the
presidential contenders and considers them worthy rivals. In case of
being elected, the leader of the People’s Party promised to combat
against corruption and to dissociate the branches of power.

According to the candidate, "if the presidential elections in Armenia
proceed according to the Georgian scenario, we will have to go to the
streets." Tigran Karapetian expressed the opinion that the authorities
will try to hold maximally transparent elections and refrain from
gross falsifications. "However, in the regions of the country, there
will be "well-wishers,’ ready to secure 80% of electors’ votes for
the candidate from the ruling party."

As a citizen Tigran Karapetian would vote for himself as "he doesn’t
distribute bribes." He doesn’t think that the TV sets distributed by
his company are bribes as he demands nothing in return.

2007 SAW NO PROGRESS IN ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS

armradio.am
09.01.2008 17:03

According to RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian’s assessment, no
essential progress was registered in the Armenia-Turkey relations in
2007, mainly due to the Turkish policy towards Armenia.

Mr. Oskanian told a press conference today that Turkey continues
to associate the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations with
preconditions (refusal from the international recognition of the
Armenian Genocide, recognition of the territorial integrity of
Turkey, settlement of et h Nagorno Karabakh conflict, etc.), while
Armenia stands for establishment of relations with Turkey without
preconditions.

The Minister noted that Armenia has been repeatedly stating about
its willingness to negotiate the problems existing between the two
countries and find the ways of their solution instead of turning
these into preconditions or obstacles.

Mr. Oskanian noted that Azerbaijan and Turkey continue preventing
Armenia’s full involvement in regional cooperation programs.

Simultaneously, he emphasized the importance of normalizing the
relations with Turkey.