Author: Tamamian Anna

Armenia’s gross external financing requirements projected at about
US$1.6 billion for 2009

YEREVAN, March 9. /ARKA/. Armenia’s gross external financing
requirements are projected at about US$1.6 billion for 2009, and will
remain elevated through 2011, albeit with a slight downward trend,
International Monetary Fund’s Armenian resident office said in
connection with its Friday’s approval of US$540 Million Stand-By
Arrangement.

The office said that the Stand-By Arrangement will cover a large share
of the country’s 2009-2011 financing gap. Additional financing will be
provided by Armenia’s donors and international partners, including the
World Bank.

Besides, extra funds will be provided to other donors and international
partners, particularly World Bank and Russia.

Armenia will also receive $500 million from Russia and $525 million
from the World Bank. The IMF said that Armenian authorities’ program is
based on a consistent set of measures regarding exchange rate,
monetary, financial, and fiscal policies, as well as continued
structural reforms.

`Return to a flexible exchange rate regime. The Central Bank of Armenia
(CBA) announced on March 3 that it will no longer intervene in the
market, except to smooth extreme volatility, and raised its policy
interest rate by 100 basis points. Following the announcement, the dram
depreciated about 20 percent, and since then, has broadly remained in
that range’, the IMF press release says.

`Key aspects of the CBA’s policy response include liquidity support
operations, as needed, and enhanced banking supervision.’

As another key aspect, the IMF singled out the strengthening of the
financial sector to maintain stability and confidence.

The IMF said that the revision of fiscal priorities to maintain
macroeconomic stability, while protecting social outlays and public
investment, in light of the expected revenue shortfall.

It also said that the authorities intend to cut back on non-priority
spending while providing an increase in social spending of 0.3 percent
of GDP, relative to the budget, to protect the poor through
well-targeted social safety nets. `Additional external financing will
be used to boost public investment’, the press release says.

On Friday, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
approved a 28-month SDR 368 million (about US$540 million) Stand-By
Arrangement for Armenia to support the country’s program to adjust to
the deteriorated global outlook, restore confidence in the currency and
financial system, and protect the poor.

The approval makes the amount equivalent to SDR 161.5 million (about
US$237 million) immediately available and the remainder in nine
installments subject to quarterly reviews. The Stand-By Arrangement
entails exceptional access to IMF resources, amounting to about 400
percent of A
rmenia’s quota. It was approved under the Fund’s fast-track
Emergency Financing Mechanism procedures. M.V.-0—

Hillary in the Holy LandClinton’s toothless proclamations were not
backed with any concrete sanctions to punish Israel’s misdeeds

Seth Freedman
guardian.co.uk,
Saturday 7 March 2009 13.30 GMT

Hillary Clinton’s Middle East visit this week was hailed by many as the
latest manifestation of America’s new get-tough stance towards Israel.
Still left in a starry-eyed daze by the effect of Obama’s ascent to
power, pundits took the view that the world would never again be the
same since his victory, hence anything he or his entourage touched
would turn inevitably and immediately to gold.

The Middle East peace process, long stalled (if not furiously
backpedalling) under Bush’s eight-year reign, was signalled by the
Obama camp as a top priority, therefore all eyes were on Clinton’s
inaugural trip to the Holy Land in her role as secretary of state.

However, now that she’s been and gone and the fanfares have died down
somewhat, it is clear that ` as far as the Israeli government are
concerned ` it’s business as usual, regardless of who’s calling the
shots in the halls of US power. One example of the new reality
mirroring the old was Clinton’s feeble outburst against the demolition
of Palestinian homes, in which she described the actions as simply
"unhelpful", a charge which was immediately rejected out of hand by
Jerusalem’s mayor, who scoffed at her pronouncement with all the
petulance of a child complaining that mum and dad "just don’t get it".

"I totally reject the notion that we are kicking people out of their
homes," he said, blaming the furore on a campaign of Palestinian
"disinformation". According to Mayor Barkat, the Israeli officials were
merely applying the letter of the law, in an entirely even-handed
fashion: "If you build illegal houses you pay the consequence … I
expect people to obey the law."

Ergo, Clinton is wrong, the Palestinians are wrong, and every other
critic of Israel’s clearly discriminatory house-demolition policy is
wrong as well. By Barkat’s token, the full weight of Israeli law will
come crashing down on anyone ` Jew or Arab ` building illegally;
except, of course, when it’s settlers laying the foundations for
hilltop outposts, or even the government itself contravening domestic
and international law with every new approval it gives for construction
over the Green Line.

Clinton’s toothless proclamations were not backed with any concrete
sanctions to punish Israel’s misdeeds, instead falling back on the
standard American formula of expressing mild annoyance at the Israeli
government in public, while privately soothing Israeli politicians,
patting them on the head and sending them out to play with another
year’s pocket money to spend on arms, roadblocks and concrete slabs of
separation wall.

Of course, if the US refuses to stand up to Israel’s bullying behaviour
in the Middle East playground, then Britain and other interested
parties aren’t likely to take firm action either. The much-trumpeted
cancellation of the British Embassy’s tenancy agreement in
Africa-Israel’s Tel Aviv skyscraper is the political equivalent of a
parent not giving their child a third helping of dessert as punishment
for stealing a classmate’s bicycle. Africa-Israel’s bottom line is
hardly likely to be affected in overall terms by such a paltry measure,
at least not while foreign governments refuse to come good on their
promises to rein in Israel’s settlement expansions and land grabs in
the West Bank.

The chasm between political posturing and hard, meaningful measures
gets wider as the years go by, since by doing nothing while Israel
feverishly continues throwing up more and more obstacles in the path of
the peace process, foreign governments are complicit in perpetuating
the occupation. Thanks to its heavy reliance on overseas aid and trade
agreements, Israel could not continue to flout international law in a
vacuum ` providing a golden opportunity for intervention on the part of
America’s Midas-man, should he be serious about following through on
his promises.

However, rumours of the demise of the old American approach to Israel
are somewhat premature, on the basis of the Obama team’s first bland
foray into Israeli affairs. If the new US regime does live up to its
billing, it can only be good for the long-term security and prosperity
of both Israelis and Palestinians, but those looking on shouldn’t be
holding their breath.

A book of Seth Freedman’s columns, Can I bring my Own Gun? is now
available to Guardian readers at £6.99 (RRP £8.99).

Italy interested in developing friendly relations with Armenia

armradio.am
07.03.2009 11:58

President Serzh Sargsyan received the delegation headed by the State
Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy, Alfredo Mantica,
President’s Press Office reported.

The President of Armenia said that the Armenian-Italian relations have
an excellent prospect for development and with this regard he
underscored the importance of invigorating political dialogue and
bilateral contacts.

According to the Deputy Foreign Minister of Italy, his country is
interested in developing friendly relations with Armenia and there are
solid prerequisites and good will to do it.

Noting, that the wishes of the two countries concur, Serzh Sargsyan
said that on Armenia’s road toward the European family bilateral and
multilateral cooperation with an advanced country such as Italy is
crucial.

The parties conversed also about the EU Eastern Partnership initiative
stressing that it opens great opportunities for cooperation. President
of Armenia underlined in particular the regional cooperation component
of the initiative.

The high-level official of the Italian Foreign Ministry thanked the
President of Armenia for the assistance provided to the Italian
citizens during the last year’s Georgian-Ossetian crisis. According to
Alfredo Mantica, these events proved once again that attempts to solve
conflicts through military means were short-sighted and that20all
existing conflicts should be resolved through political means.
Stressing that his country is interested in the stability in the South
Caucasus, the Italian dignitary said that Italy, as a member of the
OSCE Minsk Group, was carefully following the developments in the NK
peace process.

The President of Armenia hailed Italy’s balanced approach toward the
regional issues.

FOREIGN MINISTER OF ARMENIA EDWARD NALBANDIAN MEETS SHEIKHA LUBNA BINT KHALID AL QASIMI, MINISTER OF FOREIGN TRADE OF THE UAE

Armenian Foreign Ministry
9/090305_uae.html
March 6 2009
Armenia

On March 5, Foreign Minister of Armenia Edward Nalbandian received
Sheikha Lubna bint Khalid al Qasimi, Minister of Foreign Trade of
the United Arab Emirates.

In his welcoming remarks Minister Nalbandian mentioned that Armenia
attaches importance to the further development of comprehensive
cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and expressed hope that the
visit of Foreign Trade Minister to Armenia will give a new stimulus
to the further development and deepening of economic relations between
Armenia and the United Arab Emirates.

Edward Nalbandian underlined that Armenia is interested in expansion
of political and economic partnership with the UAE and underlined
the existence of broad legal field between the two countries as an
important factor for the development of mutually beneficial ties.

Armenian Foreign Minister expressed satisfaction on dynamic growth of
trade turnover between Armenia and the UAE and said that the Armenian
side is ready to discuss the opportunities for implementation of
large-scale investment projects.

Edward Nalbandian asked to deliver his warm regards and best wishes
to the UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Zayed al Nahyan.

KOMITAS CHAMBER CHOIR TO MARK COMPOSER’S 140TH BIRTHDAY WITH SERIES OF CONCERTS

PanARMENIAN.Net
04.03.2009 22:10 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Komitas Chamber Choir will mark the composer’s 140th
birthday with series of concerts in the countries where Komitas lived
or worked.

Besides Armenian towns, the choir will tour Germany, France,
Switzerland and Italy.

"The Armenian spiritual music was represented to the West thanks to
Komitas," music expert Mher Navoyan said.

Head of the chamber choir Robert Mikaelyan said they are planning to
release a DC of Komitas’ music in their performance.

Turkey was excluded from the list of countries to be toured.

"Komitas is a victim of the Armenian Genocide. How can we give
a concert in the perpetrator country, which denies this crime
against humanity, demolishes or appropriates Armenian cultural
heritage?" Navoyan said.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS HAS REAL PROSPECTS, OSCE MG CO-CHAIR STATES

ARKA
March 5, 2009

YEREVAN, March 5. /ARKA/. Bernard Fassier, French Co-Chairman of the
OSCE Minsk Group for the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, believes the
OSCE MG Co-Chairmen’s meetings held during their regional visit to
have been full of content.

This is evidence of the negotiations having prospects, Fassier told
a press conference in Yerevan.

He pointed out that the OSCE MG Co-Chairmen, who arrived in the region
last week, visited Baku, where they met with Azerbaijani President
Ilkham Aliyev.

Fassier also reported that, during their visit to Stepanakert, the
Co-Chairmen held a long meeting with president of the Nagorno-Karabakh
President Bako Sahakyan, as well as with representatives of about 20
NGOs, including the ones dealing with refugee problems.

Fassier also reported that the Co-Chairs held a number of meetings
with RA Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan and a long-lasting meeting
with RA President Serge Sargsyan.

After their visit to Yerevan the OSCE MG Co-Chairmen went to Baku to
hold meetings with the Azerbaijani president and Foreign Minister.

The French diplomat pointed out that the Co-Chair’s visit to the
region overlaps a period of special importance, namely, a period
after the Armenian-Azerbaijani president meeting in Zurich.

Fassier pointed out that each of the Presidents considers the meeting
as a positive and constructive one. He sai d that the aforementioned
positive factors are marred by a negative one, namely, documents
condemning Armenia’s position, which are circulating within the UN.

Last year, by the instructions of the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister,
two documents were submitted to the UN Secretary General: Report on the
legal consequences of the armed aggression by the Republic of Armenia
against the Republic of Azerbaijan and On basic norm of territorial
integrity of states and on the right for self-determination in the
light of Armenia’s revisionist claims.

On the other hand, Fassier pointed out that nothing special concerning
Armenia was adopted.

On May 12, 1994, a cease-fire agreement was signed between the Armenian
and Azerbaijani sides.

ARMENIAN ECONOMIST: BUSINESS TAXES SHOULD BE REDUCED BY 20% PROPORTIONAL TO SHARP DEPRECIATION OF ARMENIAN DRAM

ArmInfo
2009-03-04 12:50:00

ArmInfo. Business taxes should be reduced by 20% proportional to sharp
depreciation of the Armenian dram, Head of a Scientific-Research Center
"Political Economy" Andranik Tevanyan told journalists today.

He said 20% increase of the dollar cost creates a risk of increase
of prices for all the import goods, as well as the local production
branches which depend on them. ‘The tax load on business should
be reduced under the developed conditions – this is a truism. It
is necessary to return to the fixed rates on a retail trade, and
delay installation of cash registers till the better times’, the
economist said. It is also necessary to reduce the budget revenue
and expenditure sides in parallel with reduction of the tax load,
i.e. to raise a question of its sequestrum, Tevanyan said. ‘The budget
grew almost twice over the last 2 years – 1,7 bln drams, then 2,5 and
later a bit more than 3. All the additional revenue was assured at
the cost of business, mainly a small and medium one which is strongly
pressed now. Revision of the budget will become here the only way out>,
the economist said.

To recall, the Armenian budget revenue side for 2009 makes up 905
bln drams, the budget expenditure – 945 bln drams. These indicators
in the budget 2008 made up 768 and 844 bln drams respectively.

WB: ARMENIA FACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS WITH STRONG DEFENSE LINES
Gita Elibekyan

"Radiolur"
04.03.2009 17:32

Yesterday, when the dollar was appreciating, and there was a rush
everywhere, especially in the shops, the World Bank said it welcomed
the decision of the authorities to let the dram float. There was an
impression that the World Bank welcomed all the consequences of the
decision we witnessed yesterday.

Is the World Bank worried that it may also be accused of all these
disasters? In response to the question, Head of the WB Yerevan Office,
Aristomene Varoudakis said: "The World Bank has been represented in
Armenia for over 15 years, and has always been a reliable partner. He
noted that they fully support the return to a flexible exchange rate
regime, since it is the best decision for a country with a small and
open economy like Armenia."

According to Aristomene Varoudakis, the flexibility of the currency
will help Armenian companies compete more successfully in global and
domestic markets and will pave the way for high and sustainable growth.

He stressed the necessity of strengthening safety nets to mitigate
the impact of the crisis and the expected temporary increase in prices
on the poor

The appreciation of the dollar was immediately followed by raise
of prices.

The World Bank representative found it hard to say to what extent
it was grounded. Neither did he predict w hat would happen on the
Armenian market and how much the dram could depreciate. He simply
advised to be watchful.

According to Mr. Varoudakis, Armenia is facing the global crisis
with strong defense lines thanks to prudent macroeconomic management,
a low level of public debt and a sound banking system.

ARMENIA LETS CURRENCY FLOAT, SEEKS IMF BAILOUT

International Herald Tribune
March 3 2009
France

YEREVAN, Armenia: Armenians rushed to buy bread, butter and other
staples Tuesday and stores shut down in panic after the government
announced it would let the national currency fall and was seeking a
bailout from the IMF.

Banking authorities said the national currency — the dram — could
sink up to 24 percent with the decision. The devaluation was sure to
hurt ordinary Armenians, with prices for imported goods expected to
rise sharply.

The Armenian Central Bank decided to limit currency interventions and
return to free float policy "due to the financial and economic crisis,
worsening terms of trade and slowing capital inflows," bank chairman
Artur Dzhavadian told reporters Tuesday.

Armen Gevorkian, a 33-year-old engineer, was stocking up on food
in downtown Yerevan, where staples typically include bread, butter,
sugar, salt and vegetable oil.

"I’m buying food with all the drams I have because the dollar is
going to rise and then the situation will be very difficult," he said.

TURKEY’S NEW MISSION

The Guatemala Times
cated/war-and-peace/857-turkeys-new-mission.html
M arch 3 2009

TEL AVIV – Ever since Turkey’s establishment as a republic, the country
has oscillated between the Western-oriented heritage of its founder,
Kemal Ataturk, and its eastern, Ottoman legacy. Never resolved, modern
Turkey’s deep identity complex is now shaking its strategic alliances
and recasting its regional and global role. Indeed, Turkey’s changing
perception of itself has shaped its so-far frustrated drive to serve
as a peace broker between Israel and its Arab enemies, Syria and Hamas.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s missionary zeal to replace Egypt
as the essential regional mediator, and his violent tirades against
Israel’s behavior in Gaza, looks to many people like an attempt to
recover Turkey’s Ottoman-era role as the guarantor of regional peace
and security. Its credentials for this role in the Middle East are
by no means negligible.

Turkey is a true regional superpower, with one of the largest armies
in the world. At the same time, it is the only Muslim country that,
while no less worried than Israel about Iran’s nuclear ambitions,
can maintain excellent economic and political relations with Iran,
regardless of American displeasure. Of course, Syria is Iran’s ally,
too, but no country in the region has the leverage with it that
Turkey possesses. And Turkey’s diplomatic reach in the region is also
reflected in its recent signing of a friendship treaty with Saudi
Arabia, while maintaining excellent relations with Pakistan and Iraq.

Europe’s persistence in snubbing Turkey’s attempts to join the
European Union, the rise of violent anti-Western popular sentiment
in the wake of the Iraq war, and strained relations with the US –
owing in part to the forthcoming Armenian Genocide Act – are major
factors in Turkey’s change of direction. The civilizing efforts that
Ataturk’s revolution directed inward and in favor of disengagement
from the Arab and Muslim worlds are now being revisited. The Turkey
of Erdogan’s dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears
to be seeking a new mission civilisatrice , with the Middle East and
the former Soviet republics as its alternative horizons.

The uneasy challenge for Turkey is to secure its newfound regional role
without betraying Ataturk’s democratic legacy. Turkish democracy and
secular values have been greatly enhanced by the country’s dialogue
with Europe and its American ties. Turkey can be a model for Middle
Eastern countries if, while promoting its regional strategic and
economic interests, it resists the authoritarian temptation and
continues to show that Islam and democracy are fully compatible.

For Israel, the long overdue message is that its future in the Middle
East does not lie in strategic alliances with the region’s non-Arab
powers, but in reconciling itself with the Arab world. In the 1960’s,
David Ben-Gurion’s fatalistic pessimism about the possibility of ever
reaching a peace settlement with the Arab countries led him to forge an
"Alliance of the Periphery" with the non-Arab countries in the outer
circle of the Middle East – Iran, Ethiopia, and Turkey (he also dreamed
of having Lebanon’s Maronite community as part of that alliance).

All of these countries did not have any particular dispute with
Israel, and all, to varying degrees, had tense relations with their
Arab neighbors. The myth of Israel’s military power, resourcefulness
in economic and agricultural matters, and an exaggerated perception of
its unique capacity to lobby and influence American policy combined to
make the Israeli connection especially attractive to these countries.

The "Alliance of the Periphery" was a creative attempt to escape
the consequences of the Arab-Israeli conflict. It reflected the
yearning of the Jewish state to unleash its creative energies in
economic and social matters, as it created space for an independent,
imaginative foreign policy that was not linked to, or conditioned by,
the paralyzing constraints of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

But the security that this scheme was supposed to produce could never
really be achieved; the centrality of the Arab-Israeli conflict could
not be attenuated. The Arabs’ capacity to maintain their pressure on
Israel and to keep world opinion focused on the Palestinians’ plight
made Israel’s quest for evading the consequences of the conflict,
either through periodic wars or by forging alternative regional
alliances, a futile exercise.

The Islamic revolution in Iran, the changes in Ethiopia following
the end of Haile Selassie’s rule, the collapse of Maronite Lebanon,
and Hezbollah’s takeover of that country left Turkey as the last
remaining member of Israel’s Alliance of the Periphery. Turkey’s
powerful military establishment may want to maintain close relations
with Israel, but the widely popular change in Turkey’s foreign policy
priorities, and the serious identity dilemmas facing the nation,
send an unequivocal message that the alliance can no longer serve as
an alternative to peace with the Arab world. From now on, it can only
be complementary to such a peace.

Shlomo Ben-Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister who now serves as
the vice-president of the Toledo International Center for Peace. He is
the author of Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy.