POLLSTER SEES LACK OF SARKISIAN POPULARITY
By Astghik Bedevian and Emil Danielyan
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Sept 4 2007
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is far from being Armenia’s most popular
politician at the moment, even though he is seen as the favorite to
win the forthcoming presidential election, a leading pro-establishment
pollster said on Tuesday.
Sarkisian is widely regarded as President Robert Kocharian’s most
likely successor, owing to his and his Republican Party’s control of
many government bodies and vast financial resources. Those levers are
thought to have been instrumental in the party’s landslide victory
in the May parliamentary elections.
According to Gevorg Poghosian, director of the Armenian Sociological
Association (ASA), Sarkisian was only the country’s fourth most
popular politician as of July. Poghosian cited some of the hitherto
unpublicized findings of a U.S.-funded opinion poll conducted by the
ASA at the time.
It was the latest in a series of quarterly surveys designed and
coordinated by the Gallup Organization. The U.S. International
Republican Institute (IRI) began commissioning them last year with
the aim of gauging public opinion on key issues facing Armenia.
One of the questions some 1,200 Armenians randomly interviewed
on July 5-12 were asked to answer was: "Which of the Presidential
candidates would you vote for if the Presidential elections were held
next Sunday?"
In Poghosian’s words, Sarkisian’s name was only fourth in the resulting
rankings of potential presidential candidates. He said they were
topped by Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, opposition leader Raffi
Hovannisian and millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukian. "They were
followed by Serzh Sarkisian," he told RFE/RL.
Poghosian refused to reveal their percentage figures, saying that
the collated results of respondents’ answers to the question are
not subject to publication. He said the pollsters have only informed
various politicians about their respective ratings.
Poghosian only agreed to disclose popular support, as measured by the
ASA, for former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who is considering
running for president. He said it stands at about 1.7 percent. "I
don’t see popular demand for the first president’s return to power,"
he added.
Of the potential candidates covered by the poll only Hovannisian has
publicized his rating on the website of his Zharangutyun (Heritage)
party so far. According to information posted there, 19 percent
of Armenians would have voted for the U.S.-born politician if the
presidential election had been held in July.
Oskanian, also a former U.S. citizen, left indications late last
year that he too might join the presidential candidate. This fueled
speculation that Kocharian would like to be succeeded by him, rather
than Sarkisian. The Armenian leader has not yet publicly named his
preferred successor.
The findings of polls conducted by Poghosian’s organization in the
run-up to previous Armenian elections usually coincided with official
vote results rejected as fraudulent by the opposition. Opposition
leaders have long accused him of being used by the authorities
for rigging polling data and thereby legitimizing what they see as
electoral fraud. The pollster has denied the accusations, insisting
on the credibility of ASA surveys.