Today’s Zaman
19.09.2007
Columnists
Source: berno=122468
AMANDA AKCAKOCA
Armenia –cut off but surviving
There are not many countries that have closed borders. The fact that
Armenia has two and yet maintains double-digit growth makes it unique.
With its eastern and western frontiers closed, Armenia has been
excluded from the development of energy pipelines and transport
networks in the South Caucasus, but has kept its economy afloat with
massive remittances from the Armenian diaspora community, foreign aid,
diamond processing and foreign direct investment (FDI) — particularly
>From good friend Russia. Armenia is the fastest growing economy in the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), but at the same time suffers
>From massive unemployment, corruption and poverty, with large numbers
of people emigrating abroad.
Armenia’s geographical position is challenging and Yerevan has pursued
a "complementary" foreign policy maintaining good relations with the
West, Russia and Iran. However, with growing tensions between these
nations, it seems doubtful that Armenia will be able to continue
playing this game and difficult choices will have to be made. Armenia
claims to have made a clear European choice and the country is part of
the EU’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), aligning with 95 percent
of EU foreign policy decisions. But difficulties arise. For example,
Armenia did not align itself on the Alexander Litvinenko case or
regarding sanctions on Iran. Given that the borders with Azerbaijan
and Turkey remain closed, Georgia is Armenia’s "lifeline" and 85
percent of Armenia’s trade passes through the country. But this route
leaves Armenia vulnerable to foreign policy disputes between Georgia
and its neighbors as was the case when Georgia’s relationship with
Russia reached crisis point last year, resulting in the border
closing. Armenia has close political and economic ties with both
Russia and Iran, viewing the latter as a major counterweight to its
traditional foes Turkey and Azerbaijan.
A priority of Armenia is to see its border with Turkey reopened. The
border has been closed since 1991 when Turkey cut off diplomatic
relations and placed an economic embargo on Armenia following its war
with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. But where there is money to be
made you will find Turkish businessmen and the political deadlock has
not stopped Turkish goods from flowing into Armenia. Only 25
kilometers from the Turkish border, Yerevan should be a short drive
for Turkish truckers. But with the closed border and embargo they have
to follow a long route through Georgia. At the main border crossing,
the queue of Turkish trucks headed for Yerevan can often stretch for
more than a kilometer. Business gets around the trade embargo as the
goods officially change hands in Georgia through middlemen or
companies established by Turkish exporters. Given this, many business
leaders on both sides are pushing the two governments to end the
embargo and reopen the border. It would give Armenian exporters easier
access to Western markets and increase the export routes of Turkish
companies targeting the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. It would
also facilitate people-to-people contacts and ease the dire economic
situation of border towns such as Kars.
Turkey has always attached three conditions to the opening of the
border: resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, recognition of
Turkey’s eastern border and removal of the international recognition
of genocide from Armenia’s constitution. Nagorno-Karabakh should be a
bilateral issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan and it is difficult to
understand why Turkey continues to involve itself in a conflict in
which it has no role other than being Azerbaijan’s "friend,"
particularly now that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is up and
running. On the recognition of the border, this would become
irrelevant once diplomatic relations were established given that both
parties would have to sign a protocol that would automatically commit
Yerevan to recognizing Turkey’s eastern border. The Armenian genocide
question is highly sensitive, but again Turkey’s current policy on
Armenia is not helping them. Although the Turkish government has
called for a dialogue on the genocide, the gesture is questionable
given that, while Article 301 of the infamous Turkish Penal Code (TCK)
exists, it makes it an offense to discuss it. Although the genocide
issue is deeply rooted in the psyche of the Armenian people, it should
not become an obstacle to having better relations. Nobody is winning
anything from the current standoff and such a gesture from Ankara
should empower Turkey internationally.
Armenia has great expectations of the EU. They say the EU is their
last hope given that the US tried and failed for 10 years to make
Turkey change its policy. There is increasing optimism that now Turkey
is embedded in membership talks and, with the Justice and Development
Party (AK Party) having a "power monopoly," there may be some change
in policy toward Armenia. However, at the same time, Armenia is not
happy with the EU pushing Turkey’s role in the Black Sea, which it
sees as "exclusionist" with a narrow ethnic approach. Foreign Minister
Ali Babacan will meet with his Armenian counterpart in New York in
early October. There is much anticipation and hope that this meeting
will result in the first steps to a new window opening in
Armenia-Turkey relations. Let’s wait and see.