Author: Tamamian Anna

IRANIAN PRESIDENT, ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER HAD A BREAKFAST-MEETING

armradio.am
23.10.2007 14:26

October 23 Speaker of RA National Assembly Tigran Torosyan had a
breakfast-meeting with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The meeting was attended by RA Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanian, Minister of Energy Armen Movsisyan, Iranian Foreign
Minister, Co-Chair of the Intergovernmental Commission Manouchehr
Mottaki, Acting Minister on Oil Issues Mr. Nouzari, Chief Adviser
to the President Samare Hashemin, member of the Islamic Parliament
Nategh Nouri, other officials.

Discussed were issued concerning the results of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s
visit to Armenia, the prospects of development of bilateral relations
and the opportunities of deepening the interparliamentary ties.

The parties appreciated the results of the visit, considering the
effective Armenian-Iranian cooperation a good example of development
of interstate relations between neighbor countries.

RA OMBUDSMAN CONSIDERS "DISPROPORTIONATE" LEAVING GAGIK HAKOBIAN IN CUSTODY

Noyan Tapan
Oct 23, 2007

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 23, NOYAN TAPAN. RA Ombudsman Armen Haroutiunian
considers "disproportionate" keeping unchanged the preventive
punishment, arrest, chosen to the co-owner of the Royal Armenia
company, Gagik Hakobian. Grigory Grigoriants, Ombudsman’s Spokesperson,
said this in his interview to Noyan Tapan correspondent. He explained
that the defendant had stated in advance that he was coming back to
Armenia, nevertheless, the court considered that being in freedom,
G. Hakobian can avoid the judicial enquiry and dismissed the petition
to change the preventive punishment, arrest, chosen to him.

It should be mentioned that the RA Criminal Appeal Court made a
decision to choose arrest as a preventive punishment to G. Hakobian,
who was in Spain for the purpose of undergoing a medical treatment,
a search was announced, though Ashot Sargsian, G. Hakobian’s lawyer,
had informed the court about the place of his defendant’s location,
his telephone number with roaming, as well as the medical certificate
on receiving a medical treatment in Spain.

When Hakobian returned from Spain, he was arrested, and the petition
to replace arrest by another preventive punishment was dismissed.

Grigory Grigoriants presented the RA Ombudsman’s position, according
to which, if the arguments are disputable and equivocal, human rights
protection should be taken into account.

Earlier the first instance court of Yerevan’s Kentron and Nork-Marash
communities had passed a "not guilty" verdict on the case against
the Royal Armenia company, the case is examined at the Appeal Court
on the basis of the appeal complaints of the prosecutor party.

TURKEY AGAIN THREATENS U.S. WITH COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST GENOCIDE RESOLUTION

PanARMENIAN.Net
22.10.2007 14:13 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Turkey will take action in case the Armenian
Genocide resolution passes in the U.S. House of Representatives, said
Rakib Kilic, the assistant chairman of the Turkish police general
directorate’s department on smuggling and organized crime.

"We are hopeful that the resolution will be voted down. Otherwise,
Turkey will take action," he said, Trend news agency reports.

October 10, with a vote 27 to 21 the U.S. House Committee on Foreign
Affairs adopted the Armenian Genocide Resolution, H.Res.106, which
was introduced by Representative Adam Schiff January 30, 2007. The
vote in the full House has not been scheduled yet.

Meanwhile, several Congressmen recalled their signatures under pressure
of the Turkish lobby.

Turkey has numerously "warned" the U.S. that adoption of the resolution
will damage bilateral relations.

SAAKHASVILI’S UNEXPECTED DECISION REFLECTS MAJORITY FEARS
Nino Japaridze

Daily Georgian Times
Oct 22 2007
Georgia

Expectations that growing public discontent would force President
Saakashvili to set the parliamentary elections in spring have proven
false. Saakashvili made it clear that the only concession he is going
to make is the reduction of the election threshold from 7 percent
to 5 percent. That is, the government only meets one demand of the
opposition parties. However, unofficial word has it that President
Saakashvili and his closest clique are now thinking to hold the
elections in spring, fearing that their rating may dwindle further
overtime.

Superficial democracy

Saakashvili said that as a democratic president of democratic country
he would do his best not to weaken the opposition for the upcoming
parliamentary elections. Since a one-party, legislative body will be
unfavorable for the country the president expressed his readiness to
reduce the threshold.

However, President Saakashvili did not tell society that
international organizations and institutions were insisting on the
barrier reduction for 5 years. The election threshold in Georgia is
one of the highest in the South Caucasian countries. In order to
enter the Armenian parliament, political parties have to overcome
a 5 percent threshold. The election threshold in Azerbaijan was 6
percent until 2002, when a referendum abolished the proportional
rule of elections. Russia too had a 5 percent election threshold
until recently. The barrier increased to 7 percent for the elections
scheduled on December 2, 2007. Opposition members say that a weak
opposition and a one party local self-government system are the
outcomes of the President’s "democratic" activities.

Just a few hours before President Saakashvili announced his initiative
the majority members kept saying that it was impossible to reduce
the election threshold from 7 percent to 5 percent. They noted that
similar amendments to the democratic election legislation would be
tantamount of returning to Shevardnadze’s era.

The President has come out with another initiative to prolong the term
of parliament to 5 years. He added that he is ready to renounce the
presidential power of dismissing parliament; but he did not explain
the necessity of this change.

Elections in Constitutional Terms

President Saakashvili’s decision was unexpected for opposition
as well as ruling majority members. Tinatin Khidasheli, member of
Republican Party, one of the leaders of the united opposition parties
said that Saakashvili made this concession because he is afraid of
losing the elections.

According to Khidasheli the popularity of the ruling party is dwindling
and Saakashvili fears that the party will not be able to overcome the 7
percent barrier. This is precisely why he lowered the election barrier.

An anonymous source told The Georgian Times that two groups of
ruling majority- young activists of National Movement led by Davit
Kirkitadze and another group associated with influential Liberty- had
different positions about the date of parliamentary and presidential
elections. Hence, there was serious disagreement between these
two forces.

Levan Ramishvili openly announced that the Liberty Institute supports
the idea of conducting the elections in November 2008, as at present,
the ruling party has an advantage over other political forces and
opinion polls suggest the National Movement has a big chance of
sweeping up a majority.

The leaders of the united opposition parties think that by reducing
the election threshold, the president tried to shadow another major
demand of the opposition – to hold the elections within constitutional
terms. The opposition says the main demand of the united opposition’s
meeting on November 2 will concern the date of the elections. The
opposition wants the elections to be held in spring 2008, when the
present Parliament will expire. Opposition members also assume that
if Saakashvili sees that the reduction of the election threshold
does not defuse the political crisis in the country he may set early
presidential elections.

"President Saakashvili may consider that he has to guarantee his second
presidential term as soon as possible, because time works against
him. Another emotional speech from Saakashvili will be necessary for
this initiative. He will address the Georgian nation to decide who
is guilty or innocent in this sharp crisis. He must resign from his
post and nominate his candidacy again," Davit Usupashvili, a leader
of the Republican Party, said

Mikheil Machavariani, Vice-Speaker of Parliament, states that early
parliamentary and presidential elections will not be held. According
to him, holding elections in autumn 2008 instead of spring is
not a law violation, as the Georgian parliament has already made
relevant amendments to the legislation and the opposition’s claims
on constitutional order are groundless.

"Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in autumn,
2008. This will enable Georgian voters to make decisions regarding
the President and Parliament. Through these amendments, the president
reduced his own term, while Parliament prolonged its own. However,
opposition members have their opinions," Machavariani said in his
interview with Georgian Times.

The vice-speaker did not know about the initiative of Saakashvili to
reduce the election threshold several hours before the meeting between
the President and majority representatives at State Chancellery.

However, according to opposition members, majority representatives who
analyze the situation guess that the ruling party and the President
won’t be able to rule the country for another year and win the upcoming
elections. Thus, like the self-government elections, the authorities
may schedule the presidential and parliamentary elections even earlier
than the opposition expects.

"The interviews of foreign diplomats were published stating that they
are troubled by the situation in Georgia. They propose to launch
a dialogue between opposition and majority. It implies a minimum
change of the power balance. They say that Saakashvili may remain in
his position until January 2009, but the Parliament and government
will be replaced, as they create problems not only for Saakashvili
but foreign partners as well," Kakha Kukava, a member of Democratic
Front, said in his interview with Georgian Times.

The protest action planned for November 2 will show whether the
President’s initiative creates gaps among the united opposition forces
or not. In any case, the idea proposed by the leader could not have
another implication.

IF TURKEY INVADES
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

Council on Foreign Relations, NY
vades.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication _list%3Ftype%3Ddaily_analysis
Oct 22 2007

Turkey removed a major legislative hurdle blocking an invasion into
northern Iraq with an October 18 parliamentary vote authorizing raids
(Turkish Daily News). Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
cautioned that the vote would not necessarily translate to an invasion,
but analysts did not seem too reassured, particularly after an ambush
(BBC) of Turkish troops by Kurdish separatists incited crisis talks
in Ankara on October 21. While U.S. and Iraqi officials alike warn
Turkey not to invade, CFR’s Steven A. Cook says in a podcast that
a controversial vote by a U.S. congressional panel, deeming the
slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in World War I a "genocide,"
may have given Turkey the political catalyst needed to launch an
invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded to the
ambush by asking Erdogan to hold off for a few days before launching
any ground attacks, and the New York Times reports Turkish officials
agreed to the request. But the pause did not quell the drumbeat of
"what ifs," and analysts focused their attentions on what the fallout
might be if Turkey follows through with cross-border raids.

Most experts say the after-effects of an invasion would depend largely
on the scale of the attack and how it is carried out. Iraq’s Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari has indicated he prefers limited air attacks
(Gulf Daily News) on Kurdish targets to full-on land raids.

Iraqi and U.S. leaders say a Turkish ground attack would work to
destabilize Iraq’s north, currently one of the less volatile regions
in the country. In a recent interview with CFR.org, the Kurdish head
of foreign affairs in Iraq expresses hope the issue can be solved
politically. The tension is particularly awkward (FT) for the United
States, which finds itself stuck between a political ally in Turkey
and a tactical ally in Iraq’s Kurds. Given the fragility of the current
situation, Iraq’s foreign minister said in a recent statement that the
effects of an invasion could ripple (VOA) well beyond northern Iraq,
destabilizing the entire region.

Should this happen, one major casualty might be Iraq’s nascent
government, which already struggles to keep order in a country
fraught with ethnic tension. As a new Backgrounder explains, some
U.S. officials are calling for schemes to manage Iraq’s regions
separately-though these plans meet a contentious response from
many Iraqi leaders. CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb says in
an interview that a federalized Iraqi government remains the best
way to "maintain harmony" among Iraq’s sects. Kurds in recent years
have been able to mediate between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions,
and analysts worry that if they become embroiled in violence, their
ability to do this will be compromised.

It remains to be seen whether Turkey will actually invade Iraq,
or if authorizing raids simply represents a bargaining chip. Turkey
has again called on the U.S. to seize Kurdish separatist fighters,
and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. needs to do
more on this front. Either way, intense diplomacy has broken out in
an effort to stave off bloodshed. On October 19, Kurdish Iraqis held
protests (NYT) in an effort to coax Turkey not to attack. Meanwhile,
the Economist argues the best hope for preventing a crisis may lie
not in getting Turkey to sympathize with Iraqis or Americans, but in
getting Ankara to better understand its own interests. "With luck,"
the article says, Turkey "will recognize that a full-blown invasion
of northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame
Kurdish separatists."

ARMENIAN PAPER DOWNPLAYS POSTPONEMENT OF US GENOCIDE VOTE

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Oct 19 2007
Armenia

An Armenian newspaper has cautioned the public against dramatizing the
obvious postponement of a vote in the full US House of Representatives
on a draft resolution recognizing mass killings of Armenians in the
Ottoman empire as genocide. The paper explained the postponement by
the present state of US-Turkish relations where both sides are trying
to reach a compromise in the context of a looming Turkish invasion of
northern Iraq. The paper proposed waiting for an opportune time where
the passage of the genocide resolution could be guaranteed in the US
legislature. It also highlighted the long-term interests of parties
involved in securing the ultimate approval of the resolution. The
following is the text of an article by Vardan Grigoryan entitled "The
vote postponement won’t be a tragedy" and published in the Armenian
newspaper Hayots Ashkharh on 19 October:

The results of discussions between the US legislative and executive
authorities in recent days suggest that the final approval of
resolution 106 on the recognition of Armenian genocide in the US
House of Representatives could be postponed for a while.

In our previous analyses we predicted the possibility of such
developments and concluded that the moment of the resolution’s final
approval should absolutely coincide with the developments in Iraq and,
as a result of this, with the crisis period in worsening Turkey-US
relations. It was clear from the beginning that by the vote in the
Foreign Relations Committee [of the US House of Representatives]
US legislators in fact did not satisfy the demands of the Armenian
lobby, but took a preventive measure to restrain Turkey, which has
amassed an army on Iraqi borders.

About a half-month break has been currently announced in the Turkey-US
confrontation over northern Iraq. It is natural that under these
conditions none of the sides will take steps that would aggravate the
situation. Thus, it is not by chance that the number of those who are
in favour of the soonest vote on resolution 106 on the recognition
of Armenian genocide in the House of Representatives, is decreasing.

Does it mean that we should remain as euphoric we were as right after
10 October [the vote in the congressional committee] – waiting for
the victory of the Armenian lobby, or on the opposite – claim that
the Foreign Relations Committee’s approval of resolution 106 on the
recognition of Armenian genocide does not benefit us in any way and
that the US legislature has cheated the Armenian people yet again?

We believe that these two points of view circulating among us
currently are limited and clearly biased. This could either inspire
or dash the hopes of only those who believed up to the present time
that the reason for our success is Armenians’ being a serious factor
in global politics, and those who cannot abandon this point of view,
or on the contrary those who absolutely deny the inevitable positive
outcome of the approval of resolution 106.

Instead of being guided by these superficial and clearly politicized
assessments, it is necessary to precisely calculate the convenient
moment when it will be possible to achieve the approval of resolution
106 in the US House of Representatives. It is clear that the crisis in
US-Turkey relations has objective reasons, which will not disappear
even if the [Turkish] Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan visits
US 100 times. In its turn, the demonstration of Ankara’s frank wish
to move troops into northern Iraq is surely related not only to the
intention to destroy PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] fighters.

Thus, the problem is whether Turkey, which is threatening a military
invasion, will manage to postpone the implementation of Iraq’s
federalization programme, already approved by the US Senate, and if
yes, by what time? On the other hand, will the US, via creating a real
threat of recognition of Armenian genocide, will manage to gradually
accommodate the stubborn Turkey to the idea of implementating Iraq’s
federalization programme and as its outcome the prospect of the
establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

Temporary "ceasefires" are possible in Turkey-US relations in the
nearest future, but they will inevitably be followed by a deeper
crisis. Thus, from the point of view of the super task of ensuring
the recognition of Armenian genocide there is no need today to be
discontent or impatient. On the contrary – resolution 106 must be put
to the vote when 100 per cent support is ensured for its approval in
the House of Representatives.

It is clear that the forces which ensured the approval of
resolution 106 on the recognition of Armenian genocide in Foreign
Relations Committee of US House of Representatives – primarily, the
Democratic Party – currently are somewhat cautious to take dramatic
steps. They could benefit from the game started against the current
administration. The US Jewish lobby and Israel, which are using it
to lead things towards the establishment of a Kurdish state, have
also found themselves in a beneficial situation. Thus, both of them
need time to ensure a smooth change in US policy and implement the
expected referendum on the issue of Kirkuk’s status.

Afterwards, when the inevitable new crisis of the US policy in Iraq
takes place on one side and in Turkish-US relations on the other
side, it will not be difficult for the Armenian side to again ensure a
prevailing majority in House of Representatives for the final approval
of resolution 106.

October 21, 2007

Urban Studies | Remembering

A Nod to Dark Days, a Moment in the Sun

By JOSEPH V. TIRELLA

BEFORE services, after passing through the golden doors of the
Armenian Church of the Holy Martyrs in Bayside, Queens, parishioners
often pause briefly in front of a glass case. The case contains
fragments of bones of Armenians who died at the hands of Ottoman Turks
during World War I.

Some of the parishioners chant along with the hymns being sung from
the altar; others pray silently for the dead. Last Sunday, a young
girl with long black hair wearing a white dress gently ran her hand
over the glass, as if touching the past.

The past was the main topic of conversation last week at the church, a
beige brick structure in a small but vibrant Armenian community. A few
days earlier in Washington, the House Foreign Affairs Committee had
voted to recommend that Congress recognize as genocide the killing of
an estimated 1.5 million Armenians early in the last century.

Although the chances that Congress would do so seemed to dim as the
week proceeded, in the face of vehement opposition by the Turkish
government, Armenians are gratified that a long-nursed anger is at
least on the table.

"It still affects us," Hrair Ghazarian, a 51-year-old parishioner,
said of the killings. Mr. Ghazarian, an electrical engineer who lives
across the street from the church, chatted excitedly with another
parishioner about Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House, who had
discussed the resolution on television.

"She’s going to bring it before the entire House," said Mr. Ghazarian,
a stocky man who speaks as much with his hands as his voice. Then, as
cars whizzed by outside on the nearby Long Island Expressway, the two
men headed toward their pews.

Discussion of possible Congressional action continued after the
services, when about 50 church members gathered in the wood-paneled
auditorium for coffee, bagels and homemade cookies. The Very Rev.
Vahan Hovhanessian offered a prayer of thanks "in celebration of the
resolution and what it means to us."

Despite the general euphoria, some among the congregation recalled
deep sorrow, among them Marie Gemdzian, who is 81.

"I’m happy but not happy," she said in halting English. "Too many
people are dead. My mother’s family – how many died? Aunts, uncles.
…" With the help of Alice Keurian, her daughter, Mrs. Gemdzian began
counting her lost relatives on her hands. She soon ran out of fingers.

As people tossed out their paper cups and pushed in their folding
chairs, one young parishioner spoke of the future.

"The genocide is a big part of how we define ourselves," said a
Columbia freshman named Markrete Krikorian. "As a culture, I think we
need to let it go." But she added that until the event is "recognized
by the people who did the genocide to us, then we can’t move on."

Source: /21arme.html

Allentown Morning Call, PA
Oct 19 2007

Diplomacy must be used to dissuade Turkey from military action in
Iraq
October 19, 2007

Turkey, with its border on Iraq, is an important U.S. ally in a
troubled part of the world. The country is used for oil transit in
the region. Also, though the United States doesn’t have troops at the
border, it controls the airspace. An American air base, Incirlik, is
in southern Turkey.

Consequently, it was worrisome when the Turkish Parliament decided
Wednesday to authorize cross-border military operations into northern
Iraq in an attempt to combat Kurdish separatist rebels. The
Parliament voted overwhelmingly, 507-19, to give Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan permission to launch strikes at any
time during the next year.

Military action isn’t expected yet. But the Parliament vote was a
clear signal of the country’s growing lack of patience with the fact
that the northern Iraq Kurdish government has given rebels of the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party the freedom to run its headquarters and
training camps, and plot attacks on Turkey across the border.

President Bush, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and NATO
Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer are urging Turkey to exercise
restraint. They fear that military strikes by Turkey could prompt
involvement by neighboring countries, especially Iran and Syria. As
it is, both Turkey and Iran have fired artillery shells into northern
Iraq in recent weeks. Also, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told The
Washington Post for a story Thursday that his country supports ”all
decisions by Turkey and we are standing behind them.”

Relations between Turkey and the United States took a downward turn
last week when a House committee passed a resolution calling the
World War I-era mass killing of Armenians an act of genocide.
Congressional leaders, recognizing the critical nature of U.S.-Turkey
relations, have since backed away from a commitment to hold a vote on
that bill.

But, U.S.-Turkey relations remain strained because Kurdish rebels in
Iraq have conducted raids into Turkey and the United States has not
responded to complaints from Turkey about the ongoing problem. The
Turkish military estimates that 3,800 Turkish Kurd guerrillas operate
from Iraqi territory and 2,300 in Turkey.

Northern Iraq, where the Kurds dominate, has largely escaped the
strife of the war in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The
situation is complicated, however, because, even though Washington
lists the rebel Kurds as a terrorist group, Iraqi Kurds are reluctant
to fight Kurds who have ties to Turkey.

Parliament’s vote Wednesday sent the price of a barrel of oil up to a
record $89; it then settled at $87.40. But the wider concern, of
course, is that neighboring countries will get involved in Iraq if
Turkey were to finally lose patience and send its troops. Diplomacy
by the United States and NATO is of the utmost importance.

Asia Times, Hong Kong
Oct 19 2007

US House waffles on genocide

By Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON – Amid rising bilateral tensions with Turkey and strong
White House pressure, the Democratic leadership of the US House of
Representatives is expected to set aside a controversial resolution
recognizing as a "genocide" the mass killings of as many as 1.5
million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I.

While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had vowed to force a floor vote
on the issue in the coming weeks, kept silent on the

matter Thursday, a number of key Democrats suggested that the
symbolic resolution, which passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee
27-21 on a largely party-line vote one week ago, was, for all
practical purposes, dead.

"If it came to the floor today," Representative John Murtha, a close
Pelosi ally who was one of nearly dozen Democratic lawmakers who
withdrew their co-sponsorship of the resolution this week, said late
Wednesday, "it would not pass."

At the same time, Pelosi, a long-time champion of the resolution on
behalf of thousands of Armenian-Americans who live in her northern
California district, also conceded that she was reconsidering her
pledge to bring the resolution to the floor.

If, as now expected, Pelosi withholds the measure until at least next
year, it will mark a major victory for Turkey which, after the House
Committee vote last week, recalled its ambassador here for
"consultations" as the first of a series of possible measures
designed both to convey its displeasure and, if necessary, inflict
serious damage on Washington’s position, especially in Iraq.

Of particular concern has been the possibility that Ankara might
restrict access to its airspace and, in particular, to Incirlik Air
Base in eastern Turkey, the single most important external logistics
air hub for US military operations in Iraq.

Indeed, about 70% of all air cargo sent to Iraq passes through or
crosses Turkey, as does some 30% of the fuel imported to the US
military and virtually of its new, heavily-armored vehicles,
according to the Pentagon.

Turkey severed all military ties with France after its parliament
voted last year to make the denial of the Armenian "genocide" a
crime, and it did nothing to discourage speculation here during the
past week that it would take similar steps if the genocide resolution
went forward.

"Having worked this issue in the last Bush administration
(1989-1993), I don’t think the Turks are bluffing," Pentagon chief
Robert Gates told reporters here Thursday shortly after meeting the
defense minister of Armenia, which has had very rocky relations with
Ankara. Turkey has enforced a virtual blockade against Armenia since
the early 1990.

"I will say again it has potential to do real harm to our troops in
Iraq and would strain – perhaps beyond repair – our relationship with
a key ally in a vital region and in the wider war on terror," added
Gates, who has been the most outspoken cabinet-level official opposed
to the resolution.

The possibility that it might restrict the use by the US military of
Turkish territory and airspace is not the only concern faced by
Washington about Ankara at the moment, however.

Increasingly frustrated by Washington’s failure to either take direct
action against Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas or persuade the
Iraqi or Iraqi Kurdistan governments to do so, the Turkish parliament
voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to authorize sending troops into
northern Iraq to attack PKK units based there. The vote was 507 to
19, a margin that may have been inflated as a result of anger over
the genocide resolution.

The PKK, which is considered by the US to be a terrorist group, has
mounted a series of recent deadly actions against targets inside
Turkey in recent weeks. At least 30 Turkish soldiers, police and
civilians have been killed in PKK attacks in just the past two weeks,
according to published reports.

While most analysts here and in Turkey do not expect the government
of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order a major cross-border operation in
the near future, the fact that the parliament has now authorized such
a move makes the threat far more credible.

Iraqi Kurdistan is the one region in Iraq that has been relatively
stable – and thus has not required the presence of US troops – since
the US occupation of the country began in 2003.

Any significant Turkish incursion, of the kind it carried out
relatively routinely during the 1990s, could plunge the region into
turmoil at a moment when US forces are already overstretched,
according to analysts here who also noted that crude oil futures
jumped to an all-time high of nearly 90 dollars a barrel after
Wednesday’s vote.

Moreover, the peshmerga – the Iraqi Kurdish militia forces that are
nominally part of the Iraqi army and security forces – could well
rally behind the PKK against the Turks in the event of a significant
cross-border attack, others noted. Indeed, thousands of Kurds, mostly
students, reportedly took part in rallies to protest the Turkish
legislation in Irbil, Kurdistan’s capital, Thursday.

It is in this context that mainly Democratic lawmakers who previously
backed the Armenian genocide bill have been reassessing their
position during the last few days.

"We need every ally we can get [in Iraq]," said Murtha, a co-sponsor
of the resolution who has since withdrawn his support. "[Turkey is]
important to our effort in Iraq. We’ve got 160,000 troops in Iraq.
This is important to the US effort in Iraq, period."

"This is not the time to stick our finger in the eyes of the Turks,"
said Congressman Mike Ross, another former co-sponsor who switched
his position this week.

Turkey has been aided as well by an expensive lobbying campaign
organized and led by a former Republican speaker, Robert Livingstone,
and Richard Gephardt, who, as the former Democratic House Leader, had
co-sponsored a similar resolution. They have also been joined by
several key lawmakers considered close to the so-called Israel Lobby,
including the influential Democratic Caucus chairman Representative
Rahm Emmanuel.

Israel has cultivated close ties with Turkey, particularly with its
military, over the past two decades, and Turkish officials have
reportedly requested its help in lobbying against the resolution.

Against this, Armenian Americans, of whom there are an estimated 1.5
million concentrated mostly in California, face an uphill battle.

"I truly hope that no member of Congress is persuaded to jump ship on
such a critical vote as this simply because of some threats by a
foreign government," said Armenian Assembly Executive Director Bryan
Ardouny. "The government of Turkey and its million-dollar lobbyists
are effectively blackmailing the Congress and the government of the
United States. We should stand up to the threats and demand that
Turkey immediately cease its campaign of misinformation and threats,"
he added.

(Inter Press Service)

1.html

PanARMENIAN.Net

Gates: there is real risk of perhaps not shutting us down in terms of
access to Incirlik but of at least restricting it
19.10.2007 15:21 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ `We call on Turkey to refrain from military action
into Iraq that would create an international crisis and further
undermine stability in Iraq. We recognize the harm and heartbreak
caused by terrorist attacks across the Iraqi border into Turkey and
are working with both governments to rein in the activities of the
PKK,’ he said.

`I’m scheduled to meet with Turkey’s Minister of Defense next week in
Europe and intend to discuss this situation with him,’ he said.

Mr Gates did not fail to express concern over the Armenian Genocide
Resolution adopted October 10 by the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

`I voiced my concerns about the pending congressional resolution on
Armenian genocide with leaders on Capitol Hill. The question is really
the timing and the consequences. I would state again it has the
potential to do real harm to our troops in Iraq and would strain,
perhaps beyond repair, our relationship with a key ally in a vital
region and in the wider war on terror,’ he said.

"Having worked this issue in the last Bush administration … I don’t
think the Turks are bluffing. I think it is that meaningful to them. I
think there is a very real risk of perhaps not shutting us down" in
terms of access to Turkish airspace for resupplying U.S. troops in
Iraq, but of at least restricting it," Gates said.

`About 70 percent of our air cargo into Iraq goes through
Incirlik. About a third of our fuel goes across the border, across the
– into Iraq, and 95 percent of the MRAPs that we’re flying into the
theater are going through Incirlik,’ he said, reports the press office
of the U.S. Department of Defense.