Azerbaijan has frequently charged Russia with favouring Armenia in meetings and negotiations, despite the fact that Russia has always served as a neutral mediator in the issue. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, where it appears to be having difficulties, may have given Azerbaijan the opportunity to make more assertive demands, such as the total abolition of the Republic of Artsakh.
According to Laurence Broers, associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, “I believe there is a sentiment in Azerbaijan that this is the moment to deploy its force, its military edge, and to extract the most that it can obtain,” cited by Reuters.
The intensifying crisis threatens to involve regional powers because Russia is a member of an alliance supporting Azerbaijan’s armed defence with Armenia and Turkey. The battle might further destabilise the global energy supply at a time when the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine has already driven up food and energy costs, as the Caucacus states are a crucial location for oil and gas pipelines.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, which is located in Azerbaijan and has a 95 % ethnic Armenian community, was founded by the Soviet regime in the 1920s. Fighting was kept to a minimum while the two countries were governed by the Bolsheviks, but when the Soviet Union started to fall apart, so did its hold over Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Despite the region’s official placement within Azerbaijan’s borders, the Nagorno-Karabakh legislature issued a resolution in 1988 calling for the country to join Armenia.
In 1991, the autonomous territory formally proclaimed its independence as the Soviet Union began to fall apart. Between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a war broke out over the area, resulting in about 30,000 deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people. By 1993, Armenia had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh and captured 20% of the area around Azerbaijan.
A cease-fire that was negotiated by Russia in 1994 has been in effect ever since.
Despite the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh has remained a frozen conflict for more than ten years, hundreds of people have died as a result of artillery fire and small-scale clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.
The most violent combat saw in early April 2016 claimed dozens of lives and left over three hundred more injured. The two sides declared that they had reached an agreement on a new cease-fire after four days of fighting. But as the talks broke down and the cease-fire was repeatedly broken, emotions remained high.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) established the Minsk Group, a mediation attempt, to resolve the conflict in 1994. It is co-chaired by the United States, France, and Russia.
The co-chairs hold one-on-one meetings in addition to planning summits for the two nations’ leaders. Although the group has been effective in negotiating cease-fires, the territorial disputes continue to be unresolvable.
Under the auspices of the Minsk Group, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva in October 2017 to launch a series of negotiations on a potential peace agreement. However, no results from the discussions have been made public.
A substantial risk exists that accidental military operation could result in an aggravation of the war since Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian military troops are situated close to one another and have little to no communication. Additionally, the two sides have internal political objectives that can push their respective leaders to initiate hostilities.
Following reports of shelling inside Armenia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and pleaded with him to “stop hostilities.”
Blinken reportedly also called with Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, and offered his sorrow for the deaths his nation suffered in the most recent battle.
The United Nations is “extremely concerned” about the resumption of hostilities, according to Miroslav Jena, assistant secretary-general for Europe, Central Asia, and the Americas. He also issued a warning that the conflict might destabilise the entire area.
Despite Armenia’s requests to enter the dispute on its behalf, Russia has indicated that it will continue to serve as the mediator.