THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: A NEW SHOWDOWN FOR IRAN
By Hasan Selim Ozertem
Journal of Turkish Weekly
March 14 2012
The conflict between Iran’s National Intelligence and Security
Organization (SAVAK) and Israel’s Institute for Intelligence and
Special Operations (Mossad) has become more visible since the beginning
of 2012.
Iranian scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Rosha was assassinated in Tehran in
January 2012. Following this incident, many stories appeared in the
media regarding Mossad and Iran’s search for retaliation.
However, the interesting part of this story is that the parties
have chosen the South Caucasus for this competition. According to
Azerbaijani reports, two people linked to Iranian intelligence were
arrested in January. The story became more complicated following the
statements of officials that these two suspicious people were planning
to attack the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan and a Jewish rabbi. In
response to this event, Iranian National Security and Foreign Policy
Committee member Esmail Kowsari blamed Baku and claimed that Baku is
a known safe haven for the CIA and Mossad. At the same time, Kowsari
emphasized that they are uncomfortable with the activities of Israeli
and American spies along Azerbaijan’s border with Iran.
In reality, bilateral relations between Israel and Azerbaijan have
been developing for a long time. Apart from the mutual customs
agreement signed in December 2011, the trade volume between the two
countries recently totaled approximately $2 billion. Moreover, Israel
and Azerbaijan signed a bilateral agreement related to the military
sector. According to this agreement, worth $1.6 billion, Azerbaijan
will receive drones and air defense systems from Israel. It is thought
that Azerbaijan is trying to gain an advantage in the Karabakh conflict
against Armenia by increasing its military capability. It is worth
noting that, from many other countries, it chose to cooperate with
Israel. Considering this choice, it is unknown how correct Iran’s
accusation is. Azerbaijani efforts to develop good relations with
Israel can be considered a quite logical reply to Iranian initiatives
to promote bilateral relations with Armenia in the Caucasus. However,
considering Rosha’s assassination in January, we can say that instead
of following indirect balancing policies, Baku is now trying to send
direct messages to Tehran.
Baku won’t host power struggles
In the wake of the spy issue, Baku initially sent signals indicating
they do not want their land becoming an area for power struggles.
Furthermore, Baku is indicating its discomfort with Tehran’s
activities in the Caucasus. However, it should be noted that it
is not the first time Baku has sent messages to Tehran in order to
communicate its discomfort. According to Azerbaijani experts, Baku
first showed changes in its position in November 2011, when it did
not vote on the issue of Iranian human rights abuses. Experts state
that although Azerbaijan has chosen not to participate in negative UN
resolutions regarding its southern neighbor up to now, Baku is giving
signals that it may change its position as a non-permanent member of
the UN Security Council if Tehran does not change its behavior.
Recently, it seems that Iran is not only blaming Azerbaijan for
working in coordination with foreign intelligence agencies but is
also seeking sanctions against Baku. Furthermore, recently Iran
has been preparing to deport an Azerbaijani diplomat because of
accusations that he supports the gay rights demonstrations planned
for the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest in Baku.
While the countries’ politicians try to manage the tension between
Azerbaijan and Iran in a controlled manner, there is another country
— Georgia — that is also trying stay out of any sort of quarrel
between Israel and Iran. Israeli authorities leveled charges against
Iran after they found a magnet bomb hidden in a car belonging to
an Israeli diplomat in Tbilisi and, on the same day, prevented an
assassination attempt on an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi. It is
interesting that the methods used to assassinate Iranian engineers
and Israeli diplomats are quite similar.
Georgia is wary of getting in the middle of the relations between Iran,
Israel and the West. They experienced the difficulties of being caught
between the West and Russia before and are still suffering from those
difficulties. Nevertheless, after the Russo-Georgian War in 2008,
Tbilisi has been trying to establish friendly relations with Iran
by lifting visa requirements and enhancing cultural and economic
relations. All of these efforts cause discomfort in Washington.
Lincoln Mitchell from Columbia University indicates that the recent
bilateral relations will not be long-lived. Moreover, he stated that
considering the parliamentary elections this year and the presidential
elections to be held in 2013, Georgia may have to reconsider its
relations with Iran.
Looking at the big picture, Iran is blamed for organizing
assassinations against diplomats in various countries. These
accusations hurt the Iranian image, and worries over the Caucasus
are getting stronger. Following the rising tension in the Middle
East due to the Arab Spring and the recent developments in the
Caucasus, which generated a new balance after the Russo-Georgian
War, some questions come to mind. Will these developments create a
new system that divides countries into certain blocs? Or, are some
trying to spread instability to this wide-ranging area? Regardless,
one reality is that while Turkey has been basing its foreign policy
on maintaining regional stability, undesirable regional tensions are
dramatically arising just beyond its borders.
*This op-ed was previously published in Todays Zaman on March 14, 2012.