World Socialist Web Site
June 15 2012
Threat of war grows in the Caucasus
By Clara Weiss
15 June 2012
In the Caucasus, where US geopolitical interests collide with those of
Russia and Iran, the danger of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh is growing.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who visited Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia on June 4-6, poured more oil on the fire.
The territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, to which both Armenia
and Azerbaijan lay claim, goes back more than a hundred years, and
broke out again with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Military
conflicts have continued since the late 1980s and the independence of
both countries. Some 25,000 people were killed in the 1991-1994 war
and over a million displaced.
The region, today mostly inhabited by Armenians, belongs to Azerbaijan
under international law, and therefore counts as being `occupied’ by
Armenia; both countries are still officially at war. Since 2010 there
have been increasing clashes on the border.
Hillary Clinton’s visit to the region was accompanied by a new
escalation of the conflict. Since the beginning of June, twenty
Armenians and eight Azerbaijanis, including civilians, have been
killed. Many media outlets now speak of a `war situation.’
The United States and the European powers are using the conflict to
push back Russian influence in the region, which belonged to the
Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991. But they are not united
amongst themselves. While France has supported Armenia, which also has
Russian backing, the US works closely with Azerbaijan, Turkey and
Georgia and also tries to draw Armenia to its side.
The US has expanded its influence in the region since the 1990s, much
to the detriment of Russia and Iran. In particular, the Georgian `Rose
Revolution’ of 2003, in which they helped the current president
Mikhail Saakashvili to power, was a milestone in this regard. Both
Georgia and Azerbaijan are close US allies and are armed by Washington
militarily. Both countries belong to the so-called `Southern
Corridor’, through which existing and planned pipelines bypass Russia
delivering oil and gas from the Caspian region to Europe.
The US has tried so far to avoid a renewed military conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, since a war between the two countries might
endanger American and European interests and could lead to a major
confrontation with Russia and Iran.
During Clinton’s visit to the Caucasus, the New York Times warned:
`America and Europe can no longer keep the Nagorno-Karabakh talks on
the back burner. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev faces domestic
pressures to act, but Europe and America should caution him about the
adverse consequences, notably a broader regional war. Energy
investment in Azerbaijan and a major new gas pipeline to Europe,
Nabucco, could become casualties.’
Nabucco is an EU pipeline project to deliver gas from Central Asia to
Central Europe bypassing Russia. For several months it has been
threatened with collapse.
During her visit, Hillary Clinton said that the conflict must be
resolved peacefully. The next peace talks are due to take place on
June 18 in Paris.
In recent years, the US has focused on building better relations with
Armenia, to bring it closer to Turkey, a NATO member state. During her
visit, Clinton stressed the importance of developing bilateral
relations between the two countries.
Washington is trying to isolate Russia and Iran in the Caucasus, and
to win Armenia for Trans-Caspian pipeline projects. Armenia is the
last country with which Russia’and to some extent Iran’can assert
influence in the region.
The tense relations between Moscow and Washington, as well as US and
Israeli war preparations against Iran, threaten a regional war in the
Caucasus that could rapidly escalate into a conflict between the great
powers.
Russia, which maintains its only military base in the Caucasus in
Armenia, has signed a treaty to provide military assistance to Yerevan
in case of war. The New York Times reported on June 11 that Russian
military aircraft have held numerous exercises over Armenia. Russian
colonel Igor Gorbul told the Russian news agency Interfax that Russian
pilots were preparing for combat operations.
Iran, too, is expected to stand on Armenia’s side. Russian commentator
Andrei Smirnov wrote recently: `Iran will also not allow the loss of
Nagorno-Karabakh by ??Armenia. In the case of such a scenario, it
would send troops into the region, because it is also a matter of life
and death for Iran. The only open question now, is what will start
sooner’war against Iran or in Nagorno-Karabakh.’
The US would likely stand by Azerbaijan. The country is not only an
important energy supplier and transit corridor for Central Asian and
Caspian gas, but also of great military and strategic importance.
Israel and the US have systematically armed its navy and army in
preparation for war against Iran. (See: `Growing tensions between Iran
and Azerbaijan’)
Baku has already supported the US-led wars in Iraq, Kosovo and
Afghanistan. About one third of the NATO troops deployed in
Afghanistan pass through the Caspian republic.
During her talks with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, Hillary Clinton
announced a further expansion of military and economic relations
between the two countries and praised the participation of Azerbaijan
in this year’s NATO summit. This year, for the first time, Baku
participated in a summit of the alliance, while Russian President
Vladimir Putin refused to attend amid growing tensions with the US and
NATO.
Clinton’s visit to Georgia further fuelled tensions with Russia. Since
the Rose Revolution of 2003 and the Caucasus war of 2008’which Georgia
waged against Russia, with US support, over the regions of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia’relations between Tbilisi and Moscow have been
poor.
At the beginning of the year, Georgia issued so-called `neutral’
passports to the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to replace
Russian passports. According to Russian media reports, the passports
were issued by the Georgian Interior Ministry, and so are hardly
`neutral’. During her visit, Clinton said that Washington would
recognize these passports.
The spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander
Lukaschewitsch then declared: `Unfortunately, the statements by Mrs.
Clinton in Georgia show that Washington has not learnt from the events
in the Caucasus in August 2008.’
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/cauc-j15.shtml