IRAN ATTACK COULD SPARK CAUCASUS WAR AND ECONOMIC TROUBLE
Antiwar.com
Sept 13 2012
Russia’s Kavkaz-2012 strategic military training exercise later this
month in the North Caucasus region may portend economic problems
for the West. This is because the exercise is strategically linked
to Russian expectations that Iran will be destabilized by the end of
this year. If Iran is destabilized, Russia will uphold its obligations
to Armenia under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Russia could cut a military corridor through the center of Georgia,
taking control of all oil and gas lines leading westward from the
rich fields of the Caspian Sea. If this is combined with fighting in
the Persian Gulf, energy prices may spike.
While some Russian training exercises have preceded major combat
operations (Chechnya 1999, Georgia 2008), they are routinely conducted
in order to test ongoing reforms. Kavkaz-2012 is the first major
exercise to be held in Russia’s Southern Military District since
December 2010, when Russia introduced fundamental changes to its
Ministry of Defense and joint strategic commands. Georgian officials
are protesting that the exercise is intended to influence their
parliamentary elections on Oct. 1. Less than a month after Kavkaz-2008,
Russian troops fought a five-day war in Georgia. Russia recognized
the independence of two Georgian breakaway regions, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, immediately after that August 2008 war.
Russian officials insist that Kavkaz-2012 is a routine exercise,
unrelated to events in other countries. They emphasize that the
exercise will occur entirely on Russian territory and that they
deliberately excluded units from Russian military bases in South
Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Armenia. Armenia is a member of the CSTO along
with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In
Armenia, from Sept. 3-8, the CSTO will hold its own Rapid Reaction
exercise dubbed “Interaction-2012.”
According to Col.-Gen. Alexander Postnikov, deputy chief of the
General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Interaction-2012 is
entirely separate from Kavkaz-2012, despite the fact that they are
being held barely a week apart on opposite sides of Georgia. During
Interaction-2012, representatives from the International Committee of
the Red Cross will participate in a CSTO exercise for the first time.
According to Postnikov, their role will be to “work out issues related
to humanitarian assistance in areas where, according to the plan of
exercise, a conflict situation will appear.”
Russian officials anticipate that Iran’s nuclear program will be
attacked by Israel or the United States prior to the end of 2012. Last
winter, Russia evacuated civilians from its 102nd military base
near the Turkish border in Armenia. Because it has poor relations
with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, Armenia depends upon Iran for
energy and other basic supplies. Since Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia,
Russia has supplied its 102nd base by air.
A sustained Israeli or American attack will lead to serious instability
south of Armenia’s border. Armenian supplies likely will be cut, and
Armenia may see an influx of refugees. Russian military officials doubt
that a swift Israeli strike can eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities.
An attack on Iran probably will be followed by provocations in
areas disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the early 1990s,
the two countries have been engaged in a “frozen conflict” in the
Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Azerbaijani government is increasingly
aligned with both Israel and the United States, apprehensive about
Moscow, and covetous of traditional Azeri territory in northern Iran
along with Armenian-controlled territory to the west.
In the event of fighting in Iran or Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani refugees
probably will move northward to Russia. In March, Russia moved
over 20,000 troops to positions within 100 miles of its border with
Azerbaijan.
In the event of instability in Iran, a Russian push to Armenia could
be motivated partially by CSTO obligations, along with humanitarian
concerns. Nevertheless, this would give Russia control of the
Baku-Ceyhan energy corridor, bringing oil and gas from the Caspian
region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Because Russia controls the
Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, the West’s only other energy corridor
from rich Caspian hydrocarbon fields, Russian control of nearly all
Caspian energy, together with fighting in the Persian Gulf, could lead
to unprecedented energy costs and economic instability in the West.
http://original.antiwar.com/robert-bruce-ware/2012/09/12/iran-attack-could-spark-caucasus-war-and-economic-trouble/