EYES ON AMERICA: WHO GETS ARMENIA~RS VOTE IN U.S. ELECTION?
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
06.11.12 | 15:00
World attention today is focused on the presidential election in the
United States because it is not simply a domestic political event
but one of world geopolitical importance the results of which will
determine this superpower’s stand on a number of issues and solutions.
While the candidates make vows and promise a better future to their
electorates, in a country smaller than most US states, predictions
are made in Armenia on which candidate would be better suited to
Armenia-US relations.
The more than 1.5 million-member Armenian community of America with
its powerful lobby usually is a factor in US elections, nonetheless,
this time the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) has decided
against supporting either of the two main candidates — incumbent
president, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney believing
that “none of them has earned the votes of American Armenians”.
Armenia-based analysts prefer democrat Obama. According to political
analyst Richard Giragosian, who heads the Regional Research Center,
the Democrats “usually lead a more balanced foreign policy, which is
important for our vulnerable region”.
The US election can have several direct and indirect impacts on
Armenia – the Genocide issue, USA-Russia and USA-Iran relations,
as well as the Azerbaijani oil factor.
“Regardless of who gets elected, Armenian-American relations will
remain unchanged – close and stable. That’s mostly conditioned by the
power the Armenian lobby holds in the US, and it seems to be getting
even more influential. In any case, none of the candidates will have
the Genocide issue enter their agenda,” says Giragosian.
The indirect impact on the US-Russia relations could be tangible
should Republican Romney get elected, as he has stated his intention
of assuming a stricter policy towards Russia.
“I’m not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia
or Mr. Putin. And I’m certainly not going to say to him, ‘I’ll give
you more flexibility after the election’,” said Romney.
Giragosian is convinced that Romney’s “aggressive policy towards
Russia won’t be good” for Armenia.
The analyst shares his concerns over possible, and even worse case
consequences with Russia, a Romney presidency and tight policy might
have when it comes to Iran.
“And a US-Iran war would not simply affect Armenia, it would have
a devastating effect. We are closely connected with Iran, and even
if the war lasts five days, it’ll have destructive consequences for
Armenia,” says Giragosian.
Political analyst Levon Shirinyan shares the opinion that the
Republican candidate’s victory is “dangerous” for Armenia and the
region.
“As opposed to the Republicans, the Democrats do not view Russia as a
geopolitical opponent, and in case with Iran they are more in favour
of a negotiation process and resumption of a dialogue, which would
be beneficial for Armenia,” he says.
Another political expert however says it is impossible to clearly
distinguish between the pros and cons. Edgar Vardanyan, heading
the Armenian Center for Regional and International Studies (ACNIS)
believes that “the Republicans’ more proactive and aggressive policy
might indirectly be beneficial for Armenia.”
“If the controversies with Russia deepen, it’ll make more effort trying
to keep the countries under its influence by its side. In that case
Armenia, given insightful foreign policy, may make a good bargain,”
says Vardanyan.
When it comes to the Karabakh issue, none of the candidates “will
go for drastic measures”, says the expert, and “no breakthrough”
is expected here. The possible war scenario with Iran, Vardanyan
believes, is not fraught with only negative consequences for Armenia,
rather it might even create certain advantages.
“Economically it’ll be challenging, but Armenia as a neighbour to a
country at war might make an effort at more practical policy and use
its position to make others reckon with it. In this case war might
give Armenia a chance to become a factor,” suggests Vardanyan.
Despite this optimistic outlook, Giragosian sees another perilous
development should the Republicans come to the office – Azerbaijan’s
“black gold” might become crucial in many respects.
“In general both candidates value the Azeri oil factor. The difference
is that the Republicans are more interested in deepening energy
cooperation with Azerbaijan and are on a friendly footing with that
country’s top brass,” says Giragosian, adding that, besides the oil
interest, Romney “is more dangerous as he has no understanding of
the Karabakh issue, hence has no consideration for it”.