Author: nina hovnanian

HAYAZN PARTY HANDS OVER LETTER TO IRANIAN AMBASSADOR

February 12, 2013 – 15:48 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Hayazn party handed over a letter to Iranian
ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Rayeesi, expressing concerns over the
long-term agreement, under which Syunik province will let on lease
pasture for five thous. heads of cattle from Iran’s East Azerbaijan
province.

According to the letter, the deal may negatively affect
Armenian-Iranian friendly relations.

Hayazn party earlier came up with a statement condemning the agreement,
with a protest to be staged on Feb 14 outside the government building.

SILENCE: THE ARMENIANS AND EVERYTHING ARMENIAN IN GEORGIA

15:40 12.02.2013

“Silence: The Armenians and Everything Armenian in Georgia”
documentary, produced by Research on Armenian Architecture Foundation,
premiered in Yerevan.

The film presents the attitude of the Georgian state towards the
national minorities in the country over the past 80 years. The Armenian
and Azerbaijani communities are comparatively the largest among the
ethnic minorities existing in Georgia.

Since 1920s, the Georgian authorities have been continually destroying
the non-Georgian religious monuments located in the country. The
monuments that have fallen prey to this policy particularly include
over 300 Armenian Apostolic, Catholic and Orthodox churches as well
as monasteries, cemeteries and mosques.

Since the years of Zviad Gamsakhurdia’s presidency, these acts
have been accompanied by the policy of forcing the non-Georgian
inhabitants of the country into repudiating their original family
names and replacing them with Georgian ones.

The film is directed by Tiran Karapetyan, Aidin Davoudi is the author
of the music. Now the film can be watched with English subtitles.

CASE OF SIX SOLDIERS KILLED IN THE FIELDING MARTUNI TO BE CONSIDERED BY THE COURT OF APPEAL

arminfo
Tuesday, February 12, 14:03

The case of the six soldiers killed in the fielding Martuni will be
considered by the Court of Appeal on Tuesday.

The bodies of the killed soldiers were found on the Nagorno-Karabakh-
Azeri contact line near Martuni on July 28 2010.

After an almost two-year inquiry, the Investigation Department of
Armenia’s Defense Ministry decided to stop the case.

The representative of the aggrieved Artur Sakunts has appealed against
the decision

ARMENIAN, TURKISH INTELLECTUALS BACK FAMOUS AZERBAIJANI WRITER IN ATTACK

10:05 12.02.2013

Turkish and Armenian intellectuals have recently issued support
messages for renowned Azerbaijani novelist Akram Aylisli, who became
the target of attacks for his latest novel.

“When true intellectuals and true writers defend truths, it does not
mean that they don’t love their country. Aylisli’s statements clearly
show that a patriot cannot remain silent in the face of the truth,”
President of the Writers’ Union of Armenia Levon Ananyan said.

Prominent publisher, author and human rights activist Ragıp Zarakolu
released an announcement titled “Defend Azerbaijani Conscience”. “No
matter what you call honest people with conscience, they are the
real pride of a country. Currently, the life of Azerbaijan’s pride,
Aylisli, is under a severe threat. Even though some Western countries
and Russia invited him, Aylisli displayed an honorable posture and
rejected leaving his homeland. In order to prevent another murder
resembling the assassination of Hrant Dink, I call the international
public and the democrats of Turkey and Azerbaijan to active solidarity
with Aylisli,” the announcement reads, Hurriyet Daily News reports.

Aylisli became the target of attacks both from the state and the
public after the release of his latest novel, “Stone Dreams,” which
depicts Azerbaijani-Armenian friendship through its protagonists. A
symbolic DNA test was done last week in Baku to prove whether Aylisli
was Armenian. A group of angry people gathered in front of Aylisli’s
house, painted crosses on his photos and burned them, shouting slogans
such as, “Traitor, shame on you!”

Aylisli had been the recipient of many national and international
awards, and was also declared “Azerbaijani National Writer” in 1987,
but President Ä°lham Aliyev stripped him of all his national honors
on Feb. 7.

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH CALLS ON BAKU TO END CAMPAIGN AGAINST CONTROVERSIAL AUTHOR

12:46, February 12, 2013

Human Rights Watch has called on the Azerbaijan government to end
its campaign of intimidation against Akram Aylisli, who has written
a controversial book regarding relations between Armenians and
Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan.

Aylisli, a member of the Union of Writers of Azerbaijan, is the
author of Stone Dreams. The novel includes a account of violence by
ethnic Azeris against Armenians during the 1920s, and at the end of
the Soviet era, when the two countries engaged in armed conflict.

“Azerbaijan’s authorities should immediately investigate and hold
accountable anyone responsible for making threats against Aylisli,
and ensure his personal safety,” stated Hugh Williamson, Europe
and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch in a statement the
organization released today.

Aylisli told Human Rights Watch that he saw the novel as an appeal
for friendship between the two nations. The novel was published in
Friendship of Peoples, a Russian literary journal, in December 2012.

NGOS: “RECENTLY THE POLITICAL ELITES AND THE BUSINESS TYCOONS SHOW ACTIVENESS IN EXERTING PRESSURE ON THE MEDIA”

22:17, February 11, 2013

In the beginning of this year, the Armenian journalistic organizations
marked a notable decline of court cases against the media in 2012.

This was also evidenced by the Human Rights Watch international
organization, which noted in its latest report that politically
motivated defamation lawsuits no longer appear to be a serious problem
in Armenia.

Nevertheless, recently, the political elites and the business
tycoons show activeness in exerting pressure on the media, through
filing lawsuits against media and claiming the highest amounts of
pecuniary compensation. At the same time, motions on putting a ban on
the property and assets of the media are being submitted along with
the lawsuits. A vivid example of this is the lawsuit of the Armenian
Second President Robert Kocharian and his son versus , as
well as the two lawsuits of businessman Khachik Khachatrian versus
“Zhoghovurd” daily.

As regards the courts, it has become a common trend to partially uphold
the motions on securing the suits, which bans the property of the
media. Formally, these decisions seem to be intact, however, they lay
ground for a fallacious practice, which can benefit the plaintiffs of
exerting pressure on the media before a decision on the merits is made.

We, the undersigned, consider such a campaign by the political and
business elites against the media unacceptable, and urge them to be
more tolerant and seek for off-court solutions.

We also call upon the courts to show a more balanced approach and
uphold the motions on banning the property of the media in highly
exceptional cases, taking into account that this causes psychological
pressure on the journalists, which may lead to self-censorship.

We once again draw the attention of the RA National Assembly on
the fact that the lack of necessary criteria for awarding pecuniary
compensation, as defined in Article 1087.1 of RA Civil Code, is a
temptation for the plaintiffs willing to settle accounts with the
media. In this regard, we call to take respective steps for clarifying
these legal provisions.

Yerevan Press Club Committee to Protect Freedom of Expression
Internews Media Support NGO “Asparez” Journalists’ Club Media Diversity
Institute-Armenia “Journalists for the Future” NGO Goris Press Club
“Journalists for Human Rights” NGO “Protection of Rights without
Borders” NGO Martuni Women’s Community Council “Yerashkhik” Civil
Society Center “Nor Serund” Humanitarian NGO

February 11, 2013

PROTESTATION DE L’AZERBAIDJAN SUITE A L’INSTALLATION DE REFUGIES SYRIENS ARMENIENS AU NAGORNI-KARABAKH

Erevan (Agence Fides) – La tension monte entre l’Armenie et
l’Azerbaïdjan, suite a la question bien connue du Nagorni-Karabakh,
enclave contrôlee par l’Armenie en territoire azeri depuis un conflit
qui s’est acheve en 1994. Selon le Ministère de la Defense azeri,
deux militaires azeris ont ete tues hier dans l’enclave par un tireur
embusque armenien. On craint une nouvelle escalade du conflit, liee
notamment a la question de la reinstallation des refugies syriens
armeniens sur le territoire du Nagorni-Karabakh. Selon les donnees
du gouvernement local, environ 6.000 armeniens syriens sont arrives
en Armenie suite a l’explosion de la violence en Syrie. Environ
200 familles armeniennes syriennes ont ete installees dans les
territoires contrôles par l’Armenie en territoire azeri, et le
sentiment nationaliste semble constituer un facteur determinant dans
les aspirations de reinstallation de ces refugies. Le Ministre des
Affaires Etrangères azeri a officiellement proteste, exprimant sa
” grande preoccupation ” notamment parce qu’en Armenie, existent
de nombreux lieux où il est possible d’accueillir les refugies, ceci
pouvant representer la tentative de muter les equilibres demographiques
au sein de la province. L’Archeveque armenien catholique d’Alep,
S.Exc. Mgr Boutros Marayati, commente cet etat de fait pour Fides :
” La question du Nagorni-Karabakh est une question entre l’Armenie
et l’Azerbaïdjan. Je ne voudrais pas que les refugies syriens soient
impliques de manière instrumentale dans ce conflit.

Nous savons que certaines familles armeniennes syriennes sont
retournees en Armenie où elles ont parfois une maison et des enfants
qui etudient a l’Universite. Ces familles se sont transferees a Erevan,
la capitale de l’Armenie, où je sais qu’a ete ouverte egalement une
petite ecole pour les enfants des familles provenant de Syrie. Nous
ne disposons pas de nouvelles directes sur des familles qui se
seraient rendues au Nagorni-Karabakh. La majeure partie des armeniens
d’Alep vit ici, dans les conditions difficiles dans lesquelles tous
vivent. D’ailleurs, il est difficile de quitter la ville : il n’y
a pas d’avions, l’aeroport est ferme et se deplacer en voiture est
dangereux. (PA) (Agence Fides 06/02/2013)

mardi 12 fevrier 2013, Stephane ©armenews.com

IMMENSE PETITION POUR LE DEPART DU PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI

La cohabitation devient de plus en difficile entre le president
georgien Mikhaïl Saakashvili et son nouveau premier ministre Bizina
Ivanishvili, qui met a profit l’impopularite croissante du chef de
l’Etat pour durcir l’epreuve de force. Alors que M. Saakashvili devait
renoncer a son discours annuel devant le Parlement, contrôle par le
Parti du reve georgien du premier ministre,des representants de l’ONG
” Unanimite pour les droits de la societe ” annoncaient le 8 fevrier
qu’une petition reclamant la demission du president avait d’ores et
deja recueilli 1,2 million de signatures.

Affirmant que le mandat de M. Saakashvili a pris fin de fait depuis le
20 janvier 2013, en meme temps qu’entraient en vigueur les amendements
constitutionnels visant a reduire les pouvoirs presidentiels,
les auteurs de la petition estiment que le chef de l’Etat qui
entend rester en fonction jusqu’aux elections prevues en octobre
prochain, devrait demissionner, le president du Parlement assumant
la presidence provisoire jusqu’aux presidentielles. Ces signatures,
qui ont ete recueillies par plusieurs ONG au cours des trois derniers
mois dans differentes regions de Georgie, `prouvent que la majorite
de la population georgienne souhaite le depart de M. Saakashvili’,
precisent les organisateurs. Le president georgien ne semble pourtant
pas dispose a ceder et veut aller au terme de son 2e mandat de 5 ans,
la Constitution ne l’a utorisant pas a briguer un 3e mandat.

mardi 12 fevrier 2013, Gari ©armenews.com

Trend of Decline in Azeri Oil Export: CESD Forecasts decline in oil
output by 5% in 2013

BAKU. February 7, 2013: Azeri oil export declined by 15.3% in January
2013 compared with the previous month according to State Oil Company
of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The company reports that it exported 1.67
million tons in January 2013 (compared to 1.976 million tons in
December). Last year’s highest export occurred in July (2.36 million
tons).

In January 2013, 2,629 tons of oil was exported via Baku-Novorossiysk;
242,339 tons via Baku-Supsa; and 1.439 million via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC). `Over 2012, it was exported 25.006 million tons of oil,
including 2.06 million tons via Baku-Novorossiysk, 2.7 million tons
via Baku-Supsa and 20.199 million tons via BTC,’ – SOCAR reported.
SOCAR says that the MEOD exports both its own oil and oil falling on
the share of the government within PSA contracts.

The put 2013’s projections in perspective, SOCAR’s oil products export
dropped by 14.1% in 2012, as well – down from 1,448,068 tons in 2011
to 1,243,742 tons last year.

The assessment model of the Center for Economic & Social Development
(CESD) also forecasts decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. 50.8
million tons oil in 2010, 45.6 million tons in 2011 and 43.9 million
tons last year, which was 6.9 million ton less than 2010’s output.
Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will
decrease to about 33 million tons in 2015. Even with current prices of
crude oil in the world market, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan’s (SOFAZ)
assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current
unbelievable transfer levels persist. Maintaining such a high rate of
transfers can result in negative consequences because of cutting
budget expenditures due to potential lack of financial resources.

CESD is not optimistic about SOCAR’s oil output forecast for 2013,
which projects an output of 44 million tons of oil in 2013, even
though decline in this sector was already registered in the first
months of year. CESD forecasts decline in oil output by 5% in 2013
based on its econometric models and PSA matrix.

According to the Production Share Agreement (PSA), oil reserves turned
down starting in 2011. Considering that the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli
field currently has 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion)
reserve, production in paying quantities from the
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field is estimated to end in 2019 (3 billion
barrel /340 million barrel annual). Given that 2010 was the peak year
of Azeri oil production, the descent began in 2011. Of course, the
output will not stop immediately, but its reduction by 10 percent a
year will be a severe blow.

The BTC pipeline extends to 1768 km including 443km in Azerbaijan, 248
km in Georgia and 1076 km in Turkey. The shareholders of the BTC Co
pipeline company are BP (30.1%), SOCAR (25%), Chevron (8.9%), Statoil
(8.71%), TPAO (6.53%), Itochu (3.4%), ONGC Videsh Ltd. (2.36%), ENI
(5%), ConocoPhillips (2.5%), Inpex (2.5%), Total (5%) (CESD).

The Shift in Geopolitical Balance of Power in South Caucasus is Underway

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 23
February 7, 2013 04:32 PM Age: 3 days
By: Vasili Rukhadze

Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili in Armenia (Source: mediamax.am)

On January 17, during his visit to Armenia, Georgian Prime Minister
Bidzina Ivanishvili stated that `Armenia provides a good example for
Georgia, and it can be a source of envy in a positive sense,’ for
managing to have good relations with Russia and at the same time with
the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member
states (, January 18). Setting Armenia – a country which
does not aspire to NATO membership and is widely considered to be
Russia’s satellite state in the South Caucasus – as an example was quite
an alarming statement for Georgia, which already for more than a
decade seeks to join the North Atlantic Alliance and distance itself
from Moscow.

Ivanishvili, in a somewhat Machiavellian style, never misses an
opportunity to pay verbal tribute to Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic
aspirations, while everything that he has done since becoming Prime
Minister in October 2012, clearly shows that he is shifting the
country’s foreign policy orientation toward Georgia’s former master,
Russia. But this is not merely change in one country’s foreign policy.
As a result of Georgia’s shift, there is greater change underway in
the geopolitical balance of power in the entire South Caucasus region.

Georgia, because of its sheer geographic location, is a pivotal state
in the entire Caucasus – it is the only country that borders all the
states and political entities in the region (with the exception of
Adygea). Against the background of the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict and subsequent blockade of Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey,
Georgia provides the shortest land connection for Azerbaijan to its
ally Turkey and for Armenia to its ally Russia. Consequently, it does
matter a great deal for the Caucasian states where Georgia stands.
Georgia’s foreign policy orientation largely determines which state
becomes isolated in the conflict-ridden and divided South Caucasus.

As Georgia intensely moved toward the West since the 2003 Rose
Revolution, Tbilisi actively cooperated with NATO-member Turkey and
its Caucasian ally, Azerbaijan, in the economic, political as well as
military spheres. Armenia has been left out of all major joint
projects, becoming increasingly isolated in the region. Things are
changing now for the benefit of Armenia, which may, this time, leave
Azerbaijan isolated, indicating a shift in the geopolitical balance of
power in the South Caucasus.

While Ivanishvili gradually reorients Georgia toward Russia, he
simultaneously courts Moscow’s closest regional ally, Armenia,
addressing Yerevan’s urgent needs and demands. Ivanishvili’s statement
in Armenia was not a mere diplomatic quip to please Armenians. He went
further. Ivanishvili agreed to allow teaching Armenian history in
Armenian schools in Georgia (, January 20).
Additionally, at the request of the Head of Armenia’s Gregorian Church
Karekin II, Ivanishvili’s government released from prison Vahagn
Chakhalian, a political activist associated with Armenian extremist
groups in Georgia. He was serving a prison term for the illegal
possession of weapons, armed hooliganism and public disorder in
Georgia’s predominantly Armenian-populated Javakheti region
(, January 25). Most importantly, Ivanishvili stated that
the reopening of the Russia-Armenia railway – which passes through
Georgia, including breakaway Abkhazia – would be possible
(, January 29). Currently, work is underway to
address some technical problems for reopening the railway
(, January 31; , January 31).

This railway has huge significance for isolated Armenia. As Armenia’s
jubilant President Serzh Sargsyan correctly noted, it would end the
blockade of Armenia and have crucial importance for the country’s
economy and its exports (, February 4). However, the
railway has even greater military and political significance, and not
only for Armenia but also for Russia. If Moscow regains a direct rail
link to its ally, Russia will be able to transport, without any
obstacles, large amounts of military hardware to the Russian 102nd
Military Base in Gyumri and to Armenia, in general. This will
certainly further shift the military balance in the South Caucasus in
Russia and Armenia’s favor. In a related development, the Russian
government already announced its intention to double the number of
contract servicemen at the base (, June 19, 2012).

However, the reopening of the Russia-Armenia (North-South) railway via
Georgia seems to be just a piece in much larger scheme. On January 18,
Armenia announced the launch of the Southern Armenian Railway (SAR)
project, with the participation of Russia, Iran, China and the United
Arab Emirates (UAE). The SAR will link Armenia with Iran and further
with the Persian Gulf. Most importantly, it will connect regional
Black Sea ports to the Gulf (, January 18). Considering
that the Russia-Armenia railway can (and will) connect with the
Armenia-Iran railway, it will create a long, north-south transport
corridor, stretching from Russia to the Persian Gulf. This transport
corridor will have tremendous economic and geopolitical importance
first and foremost for Russia, expanding Moscow’s reach all the way to
the southern Middle East.

Georgia’s steps to move toward Moscow and court Armenia are also
isolating Azerbaijan on various issues. Georgia’s proposal back in
November 2012 to reopen the Russia-Armenia railway (see EDM, November
12, 2012) caused indignation in Baku (, November 12,
2012), which opposes any idea to break the blockade of Armenia.
Nevertheless, the railway issue is already at the working stage.
Moreover, in December 2012, the Georgian prime minister questioned the
economic efficiency and profitability of the highly important
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway project, connecting Azerbaijan to
Turkey via Georgia (, December 22, 2012; see EDM,
January 31). Although, he later recanted his statement
(, December 27, 2012), it showed that Georgia may
no longer walk side by side with Azerbaijan. Such disagreements may
grow, increasing Azerbaijan’s isolation in the region. Some in
Azerbaijan now even talk about a possible regime change in Baku by
Russia (, February 1).

As Georgia shifts toward Russia, the geopolitical balance of power in
the Caucasus is undoubtedly changing. This process will become even
more visible in the months to come. The window is closing for the
United States and the European Union to show political will and
strength and to activate their policies in the region. Resolute action
by the West will be necessary to salvage Georgia from sliding toward
Moscow and hence avert further expansion of Russia’s influence in the
South Caucasus. Failure to act may result in a geopolitical picture of
the region that will look quite different in couple of years.

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